The earlier the better? Evidence from lowering

school starting age in Poland

early stage research presentation

Mikołaj HerbstEUROREG, University of Warsaw

IBE (Institute for Educational Research)September 2014

Lowering school starting age in Poland from 7 to 6

• Decision made in late 2008• Official arguments in support:

– Kids developing much faster than in the past– In most highly developed countries SSA is 6 or lower– Replacement for missing preschool education – Early start will benefit children from underprivileged families

• Arguments „under the table”– Employment for teachers in the time of demographic

decline– Earlier entrance on the labor market will be a relief for the

pension&social security system

Turbulent history of the reform. Strongly opposed by parents. Compulsory phase posponed 3 times

2 subsequent ministers dismissed

When announced Voluntary admission for 6-years old in:

Compulsory admission for 6-years old since

Feb. 2009 2009-2011 Sep. 2012

Oct. 2011 2012 Sep.2013

Oct. 2011 Minister of education dismissed

Jan. 2012 2012-2013 Sep.2014

Feb. 2013 Minister of education dismissed

Aug. 2013 2013 for all 6-yo children and 2014 for born late in 2008

Sep. 2014 for born early in 2008 and Sep. 2015 for born in late 2008

Finally, the reform was implemented despite falling public trust

Year Share of 6-years old enrolled to first grade

2009 4.3%

2010 9.4%

2011 19.4%

2012 17.6%

2013 15.5%

2014* ~>50%

* Half of 6yo cohort went to school on obligatory basis

Two major questions

• How does voluntary enrolment rule in the transitory period affect class composition? (i.e. who wants to go to school and why?)

• What are the consequences of earlier admission for development of cognitive skills in mathematics, reading, writing and reasoning ability (i.e. is lowering SSA beneficial for pupils?)

Author(s) Effect of early admission on:

Achievement Mental/social issues Employment/wage

Bedard and Dhuey 2006 (international data)

(-) in grades 4 and 8. and on university admission

Datar 2006 (USA) (-) during first two years at school

McEwan and Shapiro 2008 (Chile) (-) in grades 4 and 8. Also decreases the probability of repeating grade

Black. Devereux et. Al. 2011 (Norway)

(+) small positive effect on IQ test (-) higher probability of teenage pregnancy (girls)(-) higher probability of poor mental health (boys)

(+) higher earnings until the age of 30

Altwicker-Hámori and Köllo 2012 (Hungary)

(-) in grades 4 and 8. Effect much stronger for low-status kids

Fredriksson and Ockert 2013 (Sweden)

(-) decreases educactional attainment (-) depresses prime-age earnings of students with low-educated parents

Horstschräer andMuehler 2014(Germany)

(-) Delayed school entrance mitigates disadvantages for children being young compared with their classmates

Nam 2014 (Korea) (-) until middle school. (0) while graduating from high school

(+) youger students focus more on academic studies

Ponzo and Scoppa 2014 (Italy) (-) in grades 4. 8. and 10 with no fading out. Younger students are more likely to be vocationally tracked

Schneeweis and Zweimüller 2014 (Austria)

(-) increased probability of vocational tracking in grades 5-8. The effect persists beyond grade 8 for low SES students

Conclusions from literature survey

• Parents with high SES more likely send children earlier to school (vs redshirting)

• Very little evidence in support of lowering SSA – most studies report adverse effect of early admission

• However, most of evidence comes from assessing relative performance of younger students WITHIN their educational cohort

Data

• TUNSS survey performed by the Institute for Educational Research (IBE)

• 3,000 pupils aged 6-7, tested in math, reading, writing, and IQ in the Fall of 2012 and again in the Spring of 2013

• Children attending both preschools and schools included

• Contextual information collected from parents.

Parental education and pupil ability as potential determinants of admission decision

Fall 2012 Spring 2013

reading writing math RAVEN IQ reading writing math RAVEN IQ6 yo in preschool 92.13 90.94 102.58 22.30 103.83 97.17 109.20 24.416 yo in prepatory class 91.13 90.64 101.88 22.48 102.49 98.41 108.37 24.536 yo in 1st grade 105.20 108.55 109.67 24.17 120.37 119.06 116.87 26.017 yo in 1st grade 106.91 109.11 111.23 24.93 119.28 119.93 117.02 27.127 yo in 2nd grade 120.44 117.92 118.64 26.01 125.21 121.46 123.82 28.51Total 101.34 101.97 107.84 23.87 112.96 110.57 114.04 26.01

 

Mother's educational attainment

basic

basic vocational

secondary vocational

general secondary

bachelor

master or PhD Total

6 yo in preschool 13.14 14.81 19.56 18.74 16.63 21.69 18.52

6 yo in prepatory class 27.78 23.73 24.66 27.82 20.21 22.29 24.13

6 yo in 1st grade 7.90 6.99 7.64 10.51 12.28 10.99 9.19

7 yo in 1st grade 45.82 48.40 40.24 34.48 40.49 34.66 39.84

7 yo in 2nd grade 5.36 6.07 7.90 8.44 10.39 10.38 8.32

Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

Modelling admission decision

iiiii DISTRICTFAMILYPUPILdec 321

•PUPIL related variables:• Ability tests results from 2012• Educational experiences (preschool) • Sex• Age in days on Sept 1• Health issues

•FAMILY level variables• Educational attainment, book at home• Employment status• Living conditions• Siblings, grandparents• Attitudes

•DISTRICT related variables• City size• Availabity of preschool care• Unemployment

dec – decision on admission of 6-years old to 1st grade

Modelling achievement (separately for 6 and 7 years old or within grade)

i i i i iDISTRICT FAMILY PUPIL grade st S 3 2 1 2013_ 1

•PUPIL related variables:• Ability tests results from 2012• Educational experiences (preschool)• Sex• Age on the day the test is taken• Health issues

•FAMILY level variables• Educational attainment, books at home• Employment status• Living conditions• Siblings, grandparents• Attitudes

•DISTRICT related variables• City size• Availabity of preschool care• Unemployment

•S –test score in the Spring of 2013•1st_grade =1 for pupils admitted to grade 1 at the age of 6

Logit model of admission decision

Number of obs 2861Wald chi2(27) 303.17Prob > chi2 0.0000Pseudo R2 0.0995

six_yo_1st~e Coef. Std. Err. z P>z

sex (male) -.3652363 .087834 -4.16 0.000born_2005 -.4176676 .105304 -3.97 0.000birth_order -.0915922 .0726772 -1.26 0.208sight_problems -.2027517 .1407506 -1.44 0.150hearing_problems .3175536 .3422229 0.93 0.353height(cm) .0335994 .0070148 4.79 0.000years in preschool .0093319 .05994 0.16 0.876hours in preschool -.0408868 .026373 -1.55 0.121age_in_days on Sep,1 .0049119 .0004482 10.96 0.000IQ score .1092759 .0144498 7.56 0.000n_of_child_in_family .2783412 .0660635 4.21 0.000full_family -.1594803 .1446313 -1.10 0.270mother_higher_edu .3141035 .1080569 2.91 0.004plus_200_books -.1753572 .1733136 -1.01 0.312plus_200_books_for_kids .1423592 .128328 1.11 0.267own_room .0798776 .1051425 0.76 0.447moth_under_30 .0748585 .1422277 0.53 0.599fath_under_30 -.0553045 .1904819 -0.29 0.772working_mother .149186 .1035251 1.44 0.150working_father -.0073677 .1239219 -0.06 0.953father_manager -.2419224 .1008676 -2.40 0.016mother_manager .0939302 .1204132 0.78 0.435internet_at_home -.0854801 .1473229 -0.58 0.562dishwasher_at_home -.1357546 .099533 -1.36 0.173globe_at_home -.3543518 .0912683 -3.88 0.000telescope_at_home -.1035888 .1438705 -0.72 0.472%_6yo_in_preschool -.0031141 .0036854 -0.84 0.398unemployment_rate -.0064048 .014772 -0.43 0.665municip_type -.2740732 .143434 -1.91 0.056log_population .0975772 .0478871 2.04 0.042_cons -18.68643 1.64564 -11.36 0.000

Modelling achievement in

math, 6 years old

Number of obs 1702F( 27, 1674) 16.42Prob > F 0.0000R-squared 0.2211Root MSE 9.6642

math2 Coef. Std. Err. t P>t

six_yo_1st_grade 6.222729 .4949845 12.57 0.000sex (male) -.592783 .4996792 -1.19 0.236birth_order .0509546 .4913359 0.10 0.917sight_problems 1.813003 .8841467 2.05 0.040hearing_problems 1.703023 2.006262 0.85 0.396height(cm) .0585485 .0463452 1.26 0.207years in preschool .0221964 .3287429 0.07 0.946hours in preschool .2970296 .1576483 1.88 0.060age_at_test .0175634 .002629 6.68 0.000days_at school .0671267 .0292281 2.30 0.022n_of_child_in_family -.8538693 .4727789 -1.81 0.071full_family 1.14059 .8563233 1.33 0.183mother_higher_edu 2.587378 .5833796 4.44 0.000plus_200_books .2729033 .9458852 0.29 0.773plus_200_books_for_kids 1.304447 .6968061 1.87 0.061own_room -1.262915 .6176022 -2.04 0.041moth_under_30 -.1709114 .8078492 -0.21 0.832fath_under_30 -1.218949 1.018589 -1.20 0.232working_mother .8221735 .6239196 1.32 0.188working_father .4235188 .7381565 0.57 0.566father_manager .7642585 .5605307 1.36 0.173mother_manager .4912132 .6314548 0.78 0.437internet_at_home -.9068649 .7998747 -1.13 0.257dishwasher_at_home -.0687666 .5590572 -0.12 0.902globe_at_home -1.155132 .5412806 -2.13 0.033telescope_at_home .196713 .8409522 0.23 0.815%_6yo_in_preschool .0172665 .020685 0.83 0.404unemployment_rate -.0228987 .0789523 -0.29 0.772municip_type .1539651 .775651 0.20 0.843log_population .151121 .2433648 0.62 0.535_cons 30.75557 12.38845 2.48 0.013

Modelling gain in achievement in

math, 6 years old

Number of obs 1702F( 27, 1674) 45.02Prob > F 0.0000R-squared 0.4880Root MSE 7.83

math2 Coef. Std. Err. t P>t

six_yo_1st_grade 4.682983 .4344811 10.78 0.000sex (male) -.4013372 .4032481 -1.00 0.320birth_order .0059032 .3801862 0.02 0.988sight_problems .752709 .71842 1.05 0.295hearing_problems -.3798589 1.704934 -0.22 0.824height(cm) .0090686 .0359586 0.25 0.801years in preschool .2042786 .2741104 0.75 0.456hours in preschool .1219434 .1251054 0.97 0.330age_at_test .005454 .0021928 2.49 0.013days_at school .0400409 .0237716 1.68 0.092math_ score_fall .4163897 .0161671 25.76 0.000n_of_child_in_family -.3220623 .3754501 -0.86 0.391full_family .4002147 .6406257 0.62 0.532mother_higher_edu .4349389 .4948671 0.88 0.380plus_200_books -.0860798 .7685596 -0.11 0.911plus_200_books_for_kids .3075388 .5565505 0.55 0.581own_room -.288085 .4915028 -0.59 0.558moth_under_30 .1125135 .6600442 0.17 0.865fath_under_30 -1.534586 .8473978 -1.81 0.070working_mother .8209274 .498993 1.65 0.100working_father .5642221 .5771764 0.98 0.328father_manager .0975147 .4832838 0.20 0.840mother_manager .6113008 .5131854 1.19 0.234internet_at_home -.4646224 .6202702 -0.75 0.454dishwasher_at_home .1342457 .4658825 0.29 0.773globe_at_home -.0559235 .4503951 -0.12 0.901telescope_at_home -.2474712 .6827273 -0.36 0.717%_6yo_in_preschool .0026686 .0177022 0.15 0.880unemployment_rate -.0963045 .0653975 -1.47 0.141municip_type .7657642 .6363863 1.20 0.229log_population -.1479396 .1989682 -0.74 0.457_cons 43.87847 10.39918 4.22 0.000

Modelling achievement in math within 1st

grade

Number of obs 1112F( 27, 1674) 3.62Prob > F 0.0000R-squared 0.1139Root MSE 8.71

math2 Coef. Std. Err. t P>t

six_yo_1st_grade -1.537495 .6244455 -2.46 0.014sex (male) .4257599 .6175505 0.69 0.491birth_order 1.496429 .5339999 2.80 0.005sight_problems -.4880519 .9109732 -0.54 0.592hearing_problems -1.132531 2.110368 -0.54 0.592height(cm) -.0098263 .0491031 -0.20 0.841years in preschool .0776783 .4003391 0.19 0.846hours in preschool .2426088 .1731609 1.40 0.161birth month -.3430256 .0919359 -3.73 0.000days_at school -.0391572 .0369484 -1.06 0.289n_of_child_in_family -.0687093 .431676 -0.16 0.874full_family .2796287 1.050024 0.27 0.790mother_higher_edu 2.246055 .7606658 2.95 0.003plus_200_books -.0988018 1.338413 -0.07 0.941plus_200_books_for_kids .2802334 1.111191 0.25 0.801own_room -1.687158 .7905674 -2.13 0.033moth_under_30 1.531888 .9076975 1.69 0.092fath_under_30 -2.973261 1.341086 -2.22 0.027working_mother 1.636088 .6963204 2.35 0.019working_father .4866987 .8201292 0.59 0.553father_manager .1096791 .7133675 0.15 0.878mother_manager .0718812 .8954628 0.08 0.936internet_at_home -.7328931 1.145935 -0.64 0.523dishwasher_at_home -.1936247 .7182679 -0.27 0.788globe_at_home -1.585477 .6420016 -2.47 0.014telescope_at_home .0930308 .9886147 0.09 0.925%_6yo_in_preschool -.0125093 .0242403 -0.52 0.606unemployment_rate -.1085598 .110773 -0.98 0.327municip_type .2746649 1.182362 0.23 0.816log_population .1060497 .3448359 0.31 0.758_cons 133.2207 13.86476 9.61 0.000

Modelling gain in achievement in math within 1st

grade

Number of obs 1112F( 27, 1674) 15.94Prob > F 0.0000R-squared 0.3667Root MSE 7.37

math2 Coef. Std. Err. t P>t

six_yo_1st_grade .9420158 .5843069 1.61 0.107sex (male) .7534479 .5145875 1.46 0.143birth_order .6570733 .4404285 1.49 0.136sight_problems -.6595573 .8202971 -0.80 0.422hearing_problems -1.626613 1.475289 -1.10 0.270height(cm) -.0467612 .0408033 -1.15 0.252years in preschool -.1847473 .344168 -0.54 0.592hours in preschool .2007415 .1485262 1.35 0.177birth month -.0834502 .0798581 -1.04 0.296days_at school .0041119 .0326525 0.13 0.900math_score_fall .4055697 .0272195 14.90 0.000n_of_child_in_family .5281926 .3690405 1.43 0.153full_family -1.14205 .9025154 -1.27 0.206mother_higher_edu 1.147172 .6485576 1.77 0.077plus_200_books 1.050024 1.135938 0.92 0.356plus_200_books_for_kids -.7630144 .8603192 -0.89 0.375own_room -1.436284 .6763279 -2.12 0.034moth_under_30 1.80794 .7931768 2.28 0.023fath_under_30 -1.793265 1.25163 -1.43 0.152working_mother 1.268436 .5833335 2.17 0.030working_father .8173145 .6928606 1.18 0.238father_manager .0374331 .5891447 0.06 0.949mother_manager -.192234 .7797697 -0.25 0.805internet_at_home .8125329 .9269996 0.88 0.381dishwasher_at_home -.1806168 .6019947 -0.30 0.764globe_at_home -.9632314 .5334416 -1.81 0.071telescope_at_home .3745758 .9025068 0.42 0.678%_6yo_in_preschool -.0265302 .0194788 -1.36 0.173unemployment_rate -.21182 .0871984 -2.43 0.015municip_type -.1164092 .9771524 -0.12 0.905log_population .2893363 .2940298 0.98 0.325_cons 82.23397 12.12281 6.78 0.000

Conclusions 1

• Families with higher SES are more likely to send children to school at the age of 6. Mother’s educational attainment matters. However, having father at managerial post decreases probability to admit as 6 years old.

• Decision is also clearly based on objective symptoms of school readiness: ability, physical development, age (in days).

• Girls are more likely to go to school earlier • Growing up with numerous siblings increase the probability

of school admission at the ag of 6• What (surprisingly) doesn’t affect parental decision is:

preschool experience and locality

Conclusions 2

• Among 6 years old children, those attending 1st grade at school perform significantly better in math and learn faster as compared to children in preschools or preparatory classes. Also, older children perform better. Mother’s education matters for the outcome, but not for the gain.

• When analyzing whole 1st grade cohort, the 6-years-olds perform worse than 7-years-olds, but there is slight evidence for catching up. Achievement in math depends on birth order (latter kids perform better), mother’s educational attainment and employment status.

• Major issue to be solved: how to effectively control the selelection of 6-years old to the 1st grade.