the dynamics of villages, towns and sub saharan africa
TRANSCRIPT
The dynamics of villages, towns and cities in sub‐Saharan Africa:
The case of Mali
Secondary Towns, Jobs and Poverty Reduction: Refocusing the Urbanization Agenda Washington, D.C. May 18‐19, 2016)
Brian Blankespoor (The World Bank)
Sandrine Mesplé‐Somps (IRD‐DIAL and PSL Paris‐Dauphine University)
Harris Selod (The World Bank)
Gilles Spielvogel (University Paris 1 Panthéon‐Sorbonne and IEDES)
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Outline
1. Motivation and research question2. Urbanization in Mali: descriptive evidence3. Methodology4. Results5. Conclusion
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1. Motivation and research question
Study the dynamics of pop. growth in Mali Advantages of single‐country study Improved measure of urban data (for relevant spatial extent) More/better controls Context specificity
Heterogeneity of effects? Population growth of villages, towns, cities
Any evidence of structural transformation? Also look at the dynamics of local sectoral employment
Specific mechanism: role of market access changes Through road investments/improvements Through demographic changes 3
2. Urbanization in Mali:descriptive evidence
A low population density and rural economy (urbanization rate = 27.5%) Comparable demographic characteristics in rural and urban Share of agriculture decreases with city size
86% of all jobs in rural areas 25% in middle size cities 3% in Bamako
Overspecialization of commerce and lack of value‐creating activities in cities “Manufacturing and craft” = 10% of employment in cities
Disconnect between urban and economic growth 1976‐2009: urban pop. X 4, GDP per capita +36%
Unbalanced city system High primacy rate (keeps on increasing)
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Settlement types in Mali (2009)
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Type Population criterion
Density criterion
Number of places
“Villages” (small rural localities) ≤ 2,500 8434
“Towns” (larger rural localities)> 2,500
≤ 5,000
≤ 250/km2
> 250/km2590
“Cities” > 5,000 > 250/km2 69
ALL 9,093Source: Census 2009 and authors’ reconstruction of settlement boundaries
4 largest cities in Mali (2009)
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City name (4 largest cities in Mali) Population
Kayes 127,000
Sikasso 143,000
Ségou 166,000
Bamako (capital) 2.1 million
Source: Census 2009 and authors’ reconstruction of settlement boundaries
Urban population growth (1987‐2009)
8Sources: Censuses 1987, 1998 and 2009, and authors’ reconstruction of settlement boundaries
Road improvements in Mali (1973‐2008)
9Sources: Jedwab and Storeygard (2015); red = paved; black = improved; grey = earthen roads
3. Methodology
Measure of market access (MA) , , , , population in locality j , is the travel time between localities i and j is a measure of trade elasticity (difficult choice, 3.8)
Change in MA Δ ln , ln , ln ,
Decomposition of change in MA Δ ln , , Δ ln , , Δ ln , ,
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Baseline specification
Δ ln , , ln , Δ ln , , , ,
includes rainfall, number of public goods (amenities), population density (all at t‐10), latitude, longitude, regional cross year dummies (to capture macroeconomic conditions)
Other specifications rural economy Fixed effects at the locality level; then includes variation of rainfall and number of public goods (amenities) plus regional cross year dummies
Δ ln , , ln , Δ ln , ,Δ ln , , , ,
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Introduction of interaction terms to assess possibly heterogeneous effects of Villages, towns and cities Distance to capital city (Bamako)
We also look at effects on changes in sectors of employment (structural transformation) Change in the number of jobs in agriculture, industry and services
Δ ln , , , ln , Δ ln , , , ,
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4. Results (population, 1976‐2009)
MA is associated with local population Modest effect If MA x 2, the population increases by 4.5 percent If MA by 40 percent (3rd quartile) instead of 10 percent (1st quartile), the model predicts only a 1.5 percentage point difference in population growth over 10 years Mostly driven by what happens in small rural localities Mainly through the population component of Δ MA from both roads and population lead to pop. of small rural localities MA from population only lead to pop. of cities
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4. Results(sectors of employment, 1987‐2009) MA from roads only (but not from population) is associated with agricultural employment Suggestive of ag. exports rather than internal trade for domestic consumption
MA from roads and from population is associated with service employment, in rural areas
MA from population is associated with a industrial employment, in cities Why? Hypothesis: due to proximity of large urban area which attract industries? Hypothesis is not validated by data Cities near Bamako do not lose industrial employment
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Next steps
Control for external MA using MA of West African cities using Africapolis
Instrumentation using the « donut » approach
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5. Conclusion
Roads facilitated the population growth of small rural areas and the growth of agricultural and services jobs in these areas
Increased market access from demographic changes (which matters more than from road improvements) have an impact on the population growth of smallrural areas and cities (and on all localities if excludingthe 1976‐1987 period)
Improved market access is positively correlated withservices but negatively correlated with industries Malian localities seem unable to generate industrialactivities…
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