the driving force most likely to shape forces... · future charlaine baartjes. driving forces for...
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THE DRIVING FORCE MOST LIKELY TO SHAPE
SOUTH AFRICA’S FUTURE
Charlaine Baartjes
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Driving forces for change
ExternalInternal DRIVERS
Internal
External
RE
SP
ON
SE
S
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External driving forces
Internal
External
External
Internal DRIVERS
RE
SP
ON
SE
S
Emergence or strengthening of
economic/political blocs
Alignment with Superpowers
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External driving forces for changeGlobal economic power Global political power
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Internal driving forces for change
People
PlanetProsperity
Internal
External
External
Internal DRIVERS
RE
SP
ON
SE
S
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Internal driving forces for change Competition for declining resources (relating to the
biophysical environment)
Changing in social fabric (impacting on human sense of space and development)
The success or failure of South Africa’s economic prosperity (linked to manufacturing strength); and
Governance.
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In essence SD
Economic Prosperity
Competition for limited resources
Change in Social Fabric
Governance
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Competition for limited resources
Our ecological footprint
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The direct, threats to biodiversity are
habitat loss,
overexploitation of species,
Pollution,
the spread of invasive species or genes, and
climate change.
Competition for limited resources
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Competition for limited resources
Industry or People
Pro-Industry
Consumption
Pro-Poor
Pri
ce
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New Allocation Criteria for scarce inputs?
Pro Environment Pro- People Pro-Economic
GWh/ton waste GWh/jobs created GWh/%GDP
GWh/ton CO2 emissions Ml/jobs created Gross Fixed Capital Formation/GWh
% Ml top up Jobs/GWh consumed Foreign Income/GWh
% Co-generated
Electricity (kWh/GWh)
Reduction in energy per unit of product
Cleaner Production Audit
EMS
Competition for limited resources
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Economic Prosperity
Young Not So YoungUn
emp
loym
ent
%•Political emphasis on creation of new jobs but not preserving existing jobs.•Rapid growth of workforce.•Creation of temporary jobs and public sector jobs•Capital investment in skills intensive technology
•Cost of LRA compliance - R8400/employee/year ??•Strengthening the weak by weakening the strong” – SAIRR•Large corporations replaced by agile enterprises
GROWTH INEQUALITY
JOBLESS GROWTH
STRESSED PRIVATESECTOR
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Economic Prosperity
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43%
45%
47%
49%
51%
53%
Poverty headcount index 0.501 0.505 0.517 0.531 0.512 0.51 0.521 0.508 0.514 0.49 0.476 0.469 0.445 0.432
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Economic Prosperity
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Male
0500000100000
0
150000
0
200000
0
250000
0
300000
0
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Female
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Change in
Social Fabric
>20%
>20%
>20%
>20%
>20%
>20%
>20%
>20%
<0%
<0%
<0%
<0%
<0%
Male Female
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Change in Social Fabric
SOCIAL FABRIC COLLAPSE - Inequality-Crime-Social dislocation
POVERTY ALLEVIATION -Land Reform -Job Creation-Housing Reform -Industrial Development-Welfare Reform -Enterprise Support
DE FACTO GOVERMENT The role of the private sector as proxy for government agencies
VS
Profit$ or Potholes
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50.00%
55.00%
60.00%
65.00%
70.00%
75.00%
80.00%
Male unemployed 51.90% 60.50% 61.60% 65.60% 61.10% 58.10% 56.70%
Female unemployed 64.60% 72.50% 75.00% 75.40% 75.60% 72.10% 70.80%
Total unemployed 58.00% 66.60% 68.30% 70.60% 68.20% 65.20% 63.70%
00-Sep 01-Sep 02-Sep 03-Sep 04-Sep 05-Sep 06-Sep
Change in Social FabricUnemployment as a % of the population 15-24 years
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THE DRIVING FORCE MOST LIKELY TO SHAPE SOUTH AFRICA’S FUTURE
GovernmentResponse
Economic Prosperity
Competition for limited resources
Change in Social Fabric
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Internal driving forces for changeDriving force Response
Competition for declining resources
Changes in social fabric
Success or failure of South Africa’s economic prosperity
Governance
Section 24 Constitution
Poverty alleviation
Growing the economy
Policies and legislation
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Our role in response to the internal driving forces for change
Driving force Our role
Competition for declining resources
Changing in social fabric
Success or failure of South Africa’s economic prosperity
Governance
Impact assessments – Nick King proposal
Social Impact Assessment
Economic reasons to go green; Cleaner production
Advise and contribute to legislative process
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THANK YOUCharlaine Baartjes
www.ecopartners.co.za
Environmental Economics Resource EconomicsEnvironmental Authorisation Cost Benefit AnalysisCleaner Production Commodity Strategy