The Dismal Science Really IsShareThis

Some Really Dismal Numbers

Unemployment Went Down

Earnings Take a Hit

Money Supply Concerns

A Central Bankers Nightmare

Why Dont You Reform Yourselves

Theres a reason economics is called the dismal science and weeks like this just give it further

meaning In economics there is what you see and what you dont This week we are going to examine

the headline data we all see and then take a look for what most observers do not see Then well try

to think about what it all really means With employment housing and the ISM numbers there is a lot

to cover And this letter will print out longer than usual as there are a lot of charts Warning

sharp objects from the vicinity and pour yourself your favorite adult beverage This does not make for

fun reading

But first a very quick three-paragraph commercial In the current market environment there are money managers who have not done well and then

there are managers who have done very well My partners around the world would be happy to show you some of the managers they have on their

platforms that we think are appropriate for the current environment If you are an accredited investor (basically a net worth over $15 million) and would

like to look at hedge-fund and other alternative-fund managers (such as commodity traders) I suggest you go to

up and someone from Altegris Investments in La Jolla will call you if you are a US citizen Or youll get a call from Absolute Return Partners in London if

you are in Europe (they also work with non-accredited investors) If you are in South Africa then someone from Plexus Asset Management will ring And

in Canada it is Nicola Wealth Management And Fynn Capital Management in South America (In this regard I am president and a registered

representative of Millennium Wave Securities LLC member FINRA)

If you are not an accredited investor I work with CMG in Philadelphia We have created a platform of money managers who specialize in the alternative

management space By this I mean they do not need a bull or bear market in order to have the potential for profits (Past performance is not indicative

of future results) You can go to httpwwwcmgfundsnetpublicmauldin_questionnaireasp and quickly read about the past performance of a manager

we recently added to the platform and then sign up to get more information

If you are an investment advisor or broker all of my partners can work with you in providing your clients exposure to alternative-style investments and

managers Obviously if your clients are high-net-worth individuals then you will want to work with Altegris ARP or one of my other international

partners and if your clients need lower minimums then you should work with CMG And if you have any feedback or comments feel free to write me

Now on to the letter

Some Really Dismal Numbers

The unemployment numbers this morning were just bad even though the spin doctors were out in force Of course we knew that because of census

workers being laid off the number would be negative and it was down 125000 But the bright spot we were told about was that private payrolls came

in at 83000 new jobs Lets look at what you did not see or hear

First last months dismal (theres that word again) private job-creation number was revised down from 41000 to 33000 So in two months total private

job creation is 116000 jobs We need 125000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth

But it is worse than that The headline number we look at is from the Establishment Survey That means they call up existing businesses they know

about and ask them how many people are working for them etc One of the first things I do when the employment numbers come out is look at the

birthdeath assessment on the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) web site

For new readers the birthdeath assessment has nothing to do with people dying but rather is the BLSs attempt to estimate the number of new

businesses that have been created or have died within the last month and they use these numbers to adjust the employment total They use

historical seasonal numbers to create a model from which they make these estimates There is nothing conspiratorial about the numbers - they

make an attempt at such an estimate otherwise the employment number would be badly off But the birthdeath number can skew the totals a lot more

than is typically realized

Take the last two months Using the birthdeath model the BLS assumes that 362000 jobs were created somewhere That is three times the number of

jobs in the headlines we read Those extra jobs were added into the total because that is what the model told them to do And over a complete business

and employment cycle those numbers will average out to be pretty close to right But as I said they can also be misleading in the short term Lets look

closer at some of the details

A ds by Ly ricsParty

The BD adjustments say that we added 65000 construction jobs in the last two months over half the total number of jobs created Really US single-

family homes set an all-time low sales number this week Mortgage applications are way down Home construction is off Commercial real estate

construction is down Where are those construction jobs

158000 new jobs have supposedly been created in the hospitality and leisure industry in the last two months And that is consistent with what normally

happens in summer time Typically these are lower-paying jobs (I worked a few myself while in college) In the actual numbers as surveyed they

estimated only 33000 new jobs in LampH so the BD adjustment accounted for nearly all the positive number

But what happens is that most of those LampH jobs go away in the fall so then the BD adjustment goes negative Further I am not sure we can assume a

typical cycle here to base the BD number on

(One more thing to complicate all this The headline number we see is seasonally adjusted but the BD assessment isnt And we just wont go there

Thats way too much inside baseball sort of trivia)

But look at this chart from my favorite data maven Greg Weldon (wwwweldononlinecom) It shows that the number of people planning vacations is way

down dropping by over 35 in the last three years for the second lowest number ever Ever

That is not consistent with a typical hospitality and leisure job-growth pattern I have three kids working in that field and the talk is not of robust job

creation or lots of overtime (By the way my Tulsa readers should go to Los Cabos for some good Mexican food and leave my daughters Abigail and

Amanda some really big tips And make sure they get your name and address)

Unemployment Went Down

We were told that the unemployment number dropped from 97 to 95 Thats a good thing right Well no not really The number dropped because

the number of people counted as being in the labor force dropped If you havent looked for work for four weeks you are not counted as unemployed If

you add those who were taken off the rolls back in the unemployment number would have risen to 99 In the past two months nearly one million

people have dropped out of the labor market

If you counted all the people who would take a job if they could find one as unemployed the unemployment number would be closer to 11 As an

aside if I have any real beef with the BLS over how they create their data it is this last point If you would take a job if you could get one you should be

counted as unemployed Period

The Household Survey was rather dismal (This is where they call households and ask about their employment situation) The survey showed a

301000 jobs or 363000 jobs if you adjust it to match the Establishment Survey Not pretty

Maybe a better way to look at unemployment is to look at the percentage of the total population that has a job That number has been rising off and on

for almost 50 years as more and more women have moved into the labor force But notice the large drop over the last year - almost 5 of working

people in the US have lost their jobs

The initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average stubbornly refuses to go down any further It has essentially gone sideways for over 6 months

If you go back and look at the data from the last 45 years the current level is typical of recessions

Earnings Take a Hit

No not business earnings which seem to be holding up but personal earnings Average hourly earnings dropped 01 in June something that David

Rosenberg notes is a 1-in-50 event The trend is downward with annual growth of less than 17 Average hours worked were also slightly down

My friend and Maine fishing buddy Bill Dunkelberg chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses has produced his monthly

survey and there was not much to cheer about from a future employment perspective Over the next 3 months 8 percent of the businesses surveyed

plan to reduce employment (up 1 point) and 10 percent plan to create new jobs (down 4 points) yielding a

planning to create new jobs unchanged from May and only the second positive reading in 20 months - but barely so

From Dunks email Since January 2008 the seasonally adjusted average change in employment per firm has been negative in every month with a

seasonally adjusted loss of 03 workers per firm reported in June for the prior three month period Most firms did not change employment 5 (down 3

points from May) increased average employment by 34 employees but 15 (down 5 points) reduced their workforces by an average of 33 Job

creation still hasnt crossed the 0 line in the small business sector Government (including health care and education) and manufacturing (a large firm

activity) has been providing what few jobs are created weak given the magnitude of employment loss during the recession And now the elimination of

temporary Census jobs will make the picture look more bleak although more accurate A few more

every month for 3 years to re-employ 8 million workers who lost their jobs and another 125000 a month to keep up with population growth

A few more data points from this week and then lets look at some of the implications The numbers from the Conference Board survey were weak The

total of people planning to buy a major appliance is at an almost 16-year low Car sales were low last month and the survey says they may go lower as

plans to buy a car are down from 6 to 37 In fact in almost all categories plans to buy were down Which makes sense as 17 of people say their

incomes are decreasing

New home inventory is back up to 85 months of supply As noted above single-family sales hit an all-time low as anyone who wanted to buy a home

did so in order to get the government incentive Just as with Cash for Clunkers all we did was bring buying forward we did not create actual new

buyers at least not in any significant numbers

Money Supply Concerns

After the explosion in the money supply by the Fed in the depths of the Great Recession growth in the money supply has gone flat We recently looked

at the fact that M-3 (the broadest measure of money supply) has turned negative for the first time in many decades Look at the adjusted monetary

base below

And now lets look at MZM or Money of Zero Maturity MZM is a measure of the liquid money supply within an economy MZM represents all money in

M2 less the time deposits plus all money market funds MZM has become one of the preferred measures of money supply because it better represents

money readily available for spending and consumption This measurement derives its name from its mixture of all the liquid and zero-maturity money

found within the three Ms (Investopedia) Notice that it too has gone flat for over a year now

These charts suggest that deflation is in the wind

A Central Bankers Nightmare

Lets recap Unemployment is high and is in reality going higher if you count those who would take a job if they could get one Incomes are weak Plans

to purchase discretionary items are falling Housing is likely in for a further drop in prices The stock market is not exactly booming Treasury yields are

falling not from a credit crisis or a flight to quality but because of economic conditions (deflation) Money supply is flat or falling Prices are under

pressure The list goes on and all factors are indicative of deflation

As noted last week the data suggests we could see weak growth in the last half of the year Over two-thirds of the past quarters 27 growth was from

inventory rebuilding which surveys seem to show is abating as inventories begin to stabilize

I was on Larry Kudlows show (links below) last Tuesday and he gave me some time to air my views My main concern as readers know is that we may

have a weak economy in the latter half of the year and then introduce a large tax increase which my reading of the economic studies on tax increases

suggests will throw us into recession Recessions are by definition deflationary (Not to mention what another one would do to unemployment and the

stock market) With inflation at less than 1 could we see the central bankers nightmare of outright deflation We very well could I think that is what

the bond market is saying

How would the Fed react For an answer we need to go back to Ben Bernankes famous helicopter speech of November 2002 entitled Deflation

Making Sure It Doesnt Happen Here (By the way I have always been convinced that his remark about printing presses and helicopters was an

attempt at economist humor which is why we dont get many offers from comedy clubs)

I did a fuller assessment of that speech in my weekly letter at httpwww2000wavecomarticleaspid=mwo112802

from the speech You can read the speech itself at httpwwwfederalreservegovBoardDocsspeeches200220021121defaulthtm

Lets sum up the helicopter section You can create inflation by printing a lot of money But that is not the interesting part of the speech Quoting from

my letter

Lets look at what Bernanke really said First he begins by telling us that he believes the likelihood of deflation is remote But since it did happen in

Japan and seems to be the cause of the current Japanese problems we cannot dismiss the possibility outright Therefore we need to see what

policies can be brought to bear upon the problem

He then goes on to say that the most important thing is to prevent deflation before it happens He says that a central bank should allow for some

cushion and should not target zero inflation and speculates that this is over 1 Typically central banks target inflation of 1-3 although this means

that in normal times inflation is more likely to rise above the acceptable target than fall below zero in poor times

Central banks can usually influence this by raising and lowering interest rates But what if the Fed Funds rate falls to zero Not to worry there are still

policy levers that can be pulled Quoting Bernanke

So what then might the Fed do if its target interest rate the overnight federal funds rate fell to zero One relatively straightforward extension of

current procedures would be to try to stimulate spending by lowering rates further out along the Treasury term structure - that is rates on government

bonds of longer maturities

A more direct method which I personally prefer would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt

(say bonds maturing within the next two years) The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of

securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields If this program were successful not only would yields on medium-

term Treasury securities fall but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt

(such as mortgages) would likely fall as well

Lower rates over the maturity spectrum of public and private securities should strengthen aggregate demand in the usual ways and thus help to end

deflation Of course if operating in relatively short-dated Treasury debt proved insufficient the Fed could also attempt to cap yields of Treasury

securities at still longer maturities say three to six years

He then proceeds to outline what could be done if the economy falls into outright deflation and uses the examples and others cited above It seems

clear to me from the context that he is making an academic list of potential policies the Fed could pursue if outright deflation became a reality He was

not suggesting they be used nor do I believe he thinks we will ever get to the place where they would be contemplated He was simply pointing out the

Fed can fight deflation if it wants to

From Dunks email Since January 2008 the seasonally adjusted average change in employment per firm has been negative in every month with a

seasonally adjusted loss of 03 workers per firm reported in June for the prior three month period Most firms did not change employment 5 (down 3

points from May) increased average employment by 34 employees but 15 (down 5 points) reduced their workforces by an average of 33 Job

creation still hasnt crossed the 0 line in the small business sector Government (including health care and education) and manufacturing (a large firm

activity) has been providing what few jobs are created weak given the magnitude of employment loss during the recession And now the elimination of

temporary Census jobs will make the picture look more bleak although more accurate A few more

every month for 3 years to re-employ 8 million workers who lost their jobs and another 125000 a month to keep up with population growth

A few more data points from this week and then lets look at some of the implications The numbers from the Conference Board survey were weak The

total of people planning to buy a major appliance is at an almost 16-year low Car sales were low last month and the survey says they may go lower as

plans to buy a car are down from 6 to 37 In fact in almost all categories plans to buy were down Which makes sense as 17 of people say their

incomes are decreasing

New home inventory is back up to 85 months of supply As noted above single-family sales hit an all-time low as anyone who wanted to buy a home

did so in order to get the government incentive Just as with Cash for Clunkers all we did was bring buying forward we did not create actual new

buyers at least not in any significant numbers

Money Supply Concerns

After the explosion in the money supply by the Fed in the depths of the Great Recession growth in the money supply has gone flat We recently looked

at the fact that M-3 (the broadest measure of money supply) has turned negative for the first time in many decades Look at the adjusted monetary

base below

And now lets look at MZM or Money of Zero Maturity MZM is a measure of the liquid money supply within an economy MZM represents all money in

M2 less the time deposits plus all money market funds MZM has become one of the preferred measures of money supply because it better represents

money readily available for spending and consumption This measurement derives its name from its mixture of all the liquid and zero-maturity money

found within the three Ms (Investopedia) Notice that it too has gone flat for over a year now

These charts suggest that deflation is in the wind

A Central Bankers Nightmare

Lets recap Unemployment is high and is in reality going higher if you count those who would take a job if they could get one Incomes are weak Plans

to purchase discretionary items are falling Housing is likely in for a further drop in prices The stock market is not exactly booming Treasury yields are

falling not from a credit crisis or a flight to quality but because of economic conditions (deflation) Money supply is flat or falling Prices are under

pressure The list goes on and all factors are indicative of deflation

As noted last week the data suggests we could see weak growth in the last half of the year Over two-thirds of the past quarters 27 growth was from

inventory rebuilding which surveys seem to show is abating as inventories begin to stabilize

I was on Larry Kudlows show (links below) last Tuesday and he gave me some time to air my views My main concern as readers know is that we may

have a weak economy in the latter half of the year and then introduce a large tax increase which my reading of the economic studies on tax increases

suggests will throw us into recession Recessions are by definition deflationary (Not to mention what another one would do to unemployment and the

stock market) With inflation at less than 1 could we see the central bankers nightmare of outright deflation We very well could I think that is what

the bond market is saying

How would the Fed react For an answer we need to go back to Ben Bernankes famous helicopter speech of November 2002 entitled Deflation

Making Sure It Doesnt Happen Here (By the way I have always been convinced that his remark about printing presses and helicopters was an

attempt at economist humor which is why we dont get many offers from comedy clubs)

I did a fuller assessment of that speech in my weekly letter at httpwww2000wavecomarticleaspid=mwo112802

from the speech You can read the speech itself at httpwwwfederalreservegovBoardDocsspeeches200220021121defaulthtm

Lets sum up the helicopter section You can create inflation by printing a lot of money But that is not the interesting part of the speech Quoting from

my letter

Lets look at what Bernanke really said First he begins by telling us that he believes the likelihood of deflation is remote But since it did happen in

Japan and seems to be the cause of the current Japanese problems we cannot dismiss the possibility outright Therefore we need to see what

policies can be brought to bear upon the problem

He then goes on to say that the most important thing is to prevent deflation before it happens He says that a central bank should allow for some

cushion and should not target zero inflation and speculates that this is over 1 Typically central banks target inflation of 1-3 although this means

that in normal times inflation is more likely to rise above the acceptable target than fall below zero in poor times

Central banks can usually influence this by raising and lowering interest rates But what if the Fed Funds rate falls to zero Not to worry there are still

policy levers that can be pulled Quoting Bernanke

So what then might the Fed do if its target interest rate the overnight federal funds rate fell to zero One relatively straightforward extension of

current procedures would be to try to stimulate spending by lowering rates further out along the Treasury term structure - that is rates on government

bonds of longer maturities

A more direct method which I personally prefer would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt

(say bonds maturing within the next two years) The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of

securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields If this program were successful not only would yields on medium-

term Treasury securities fall but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt

(such as mortgages) would likely fall as well

Lower rates over the maturity spectrum of public and private securities should strengthen aggregate demand in the usual ways and thus help to end

deflation Of course if operating in relatively short-dated Treasury debt proved insufficient the Fed could also attempt to cap yields of Treasury

securities at still longer maturities say three to six years

He then proceeds to outline what could be done if the economy falls into outright deflation and uses the examples and others cited above It seems

clear to me from the context that he is making an academic list of potential policies the Fed could pursue if outright deflation became a reality He was

not suggesting they be used nor do I believe he thinks we will ever get to the place where they would be contemplated He was simply pointing out the

Fed can fight deflation if it wants to

And now lets look at MZM or Money of Zero Maturity MZM is a measure of the liquid money supply within an economy MZM represents all money in

M2 less the time deposits plus all money market funds MZM has become one of the preferred measures of money supply because it better represents

money readily available for spending and consumption This measurement derives its name from its mixture of all the liquid and zero-maturity money

found within the three Ms (Investopedia) Notice that it too has gone flat for over a year now

These charts suggest that deflation is in the wind

A Central Bankers Nightmare

Lets recap Unemployment is high and is in reality going higher if you count those who would take a job if they could get one Incomes are weak Plans

to purchase discretionary items are falling Housing is likely in for a further drop in prices The stock market is not exactly booming Treasury yields are

falling not from a credit crisis or a flight to quality but because of economic conditions (deflation) Money supply is flat or falling Prices are under

pressure The list goes on and all factors are indicative of deflation

As noted last week the data suggests we could see weak growth in the last half of the year Over two-thirds of the past quarters 27 growth was from

inventory rebuilding which surveys seem to show is abating as inventories begin to stabilize

I was on Larry Kudlows show (links below) last Tuesday and he gave me some time to air my views My main concern as readers know is that we may

have a weak economy in the latter half of the year and then introduce a large tax increase which my reading of the economic studies on tax increases

suggests will throw us into recession Recessions are by definition deflationary (Not to mention what another one would do to unemployment and the

stock market) With inflation at less than 1 could we see the central bankers nightmare of outright deflation We very well could I think that is what

the bond market is saying

How would the Fed react For an answer we need to go back to Ben Bernankes famous helicopter speech of November 2002 entitled Deflation

Making Sure It Doesnt Happen Here (By the way I have always been convinced that his remark about printing presses and helicopters was an

attempt at economist humor which is why we dont get many offers from comedy clubs)

I did a fuller assessment of that speech in my weekly letter at httpwww2000wavecomarticleaspid=mwo112802

from the speech You can read the speech itself at httpwwwfederalreservegovBoardDocsspeeches200220021121defaulthtm

Lets sum up the helicopter section You can create inflation by printing a lot of money But that is not the interesting part of the speech Quoting from

my letter

Lets look at what Bernanke really said First he begins by telling us that he believes the likelihood of deflation is remote But since it did happen in

Japan and seems to be the cause of the current Japanese problems we cannot dismiss the possibility outright Therefore we need to see what

policies can be brought to bear upon the problem

He then goes on to say that the most important thing is to prevent deflation before it happens He says that a central bank should allow for some

cushion and should not target zero inflation and speculates that this is over 1 Typically central banks target inflation of 1-3 although this means

that in normal times inflation is more likely to rise above the acceptable target than fall below zero in poor times

Central banks can usually influence this by raising and lowering interest rates But what if the Fed Funds rate falls to zero Not to worry there are still

policy levers that can be pulled Quoting Bernanke

So what then might the Fed do if its target interest rate the overnight federal funds rate fell to zero One relatively straightforward extension of

current procedures would be to try to stimulate spending by lowering rates further out along the Treasury term structure - that is rates on government

bonds of longer maturities

A more direct method which I personally prefer would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt

(say bonds maturing within the next two years) The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of

securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields If this program were successful not only would yields on medium-

term Treasury securities fall but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt

(such as mortgages) would likely fall as well

Lower rates over the maturity spectrum of public and private securities should strengthen aggregate demand in the usual ways and thus help to end

deflation Of course if operating in relatively short-dated Treasury debt proved insufficient the Fed could also attempt to cap yields of Treasury

securities at still longer maturities say three to six years

He then proceeds to outline what could be done if the economy falls into outright deflation and uses the examples and others cited above It seems

clear to me from the context that he is making an academic list of potential policies the Fed could pursue if outright deflation became a reality He was

not suggesting they be used nor do I believe he thinks we will ever get to the place where they would be contemplated He was simply pointing out the

Fed can fight deflation if it wants to

(And now in 2010 that question might become more than academic)

With the above as background we can begin to look at what I believe is the true import of the speech Read these sentences noting my bold-faced

words

a central bank either alone or in cooperation with other parts of the government retains considerable power to expand aggregate demand and

economic activity even when its accustomed policy rate is at zero

The basic prescription for preventing deflation is therefore straightforward at least in principle Use monetary and fiscal policy as needed to support

aggregate spending (As Keynesian as you can get)

Again some observers have concluded that when the central banks policy rate falls to zero - its practical minimum - monetary policy loses its ability

to further stimulate aggregate demand and the economy

To stimulate aggregate spending when short-term interest rates have reached zero the Fed must expand the scale of its asset

purchases or possibly expand the menu of assets that it buys

Now let us go to his conclusion

Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy and should be strongly resisted Fortunately for the foreseeable future the

chances of a serious deflation in the United States appear remote indeed in large part because of our economys underlying strengths but also

because of the determination of the Federal Reserve and other US policymakers to act preemptively against deflationary pressures Moreover as I

have discussed today a variety of policy responses are available should deflation appear to be taking hold Because some of these alternative policy

tools are relatively less familiar they may raise practical problems of implementation and of calibration of their likely economic effects

as I have emphasized prevention of deflation is preferable to cure Nevertheless I hope to have persuaded you that the Federal Reserve and

other economic policymakers would be far from helpless in the face of deflation even should the federal funds rate hit its zero bound

And there you have it All the data pointing to a slowing economy It puts us closer to deflation It is not the headline data per se we need to think about

We need to start thinking about what the Fed will do if we have a double-dip recession and start to fall into deflation Will they move out the yield curve

as he suggested Buy more and varied assets like mortgages and corporate debt What will that do to markets and investments

Note that last bolded line For this reason as I have emphasized prevention of deflation is preferable to cure

means he may act in advance of the next recession if the data continues to come in weak and deflation starts to actually become a threat That is the

thing we dont see in all the economic data - the potential for new Fed action Lets hope that like the deflation scare in 2002 it doesnt come about

Stay tuned

Why dont you reform yourselves That task would be sufficient enough - Freacutedeacuteric Bastiat

It is time to hit the send button The letter is overly long already Ill finish with this thought This financial reform bill should be thrown out and they

should start over So much has been tagged onto this bill that has nothing to do with reform but is all about political agendas It is also far too vague

Essentially they create all these new committees or empower the bureaucracies that missed it last time to come up with the actual details of regulation

For all intents and purposes a small number of unelected individuals will be given almost total control to write new rules overseeing a huge part of our

economy No matter how well-intentioned this is not something that should be done in closed rooms

We need major reform of course And when are we going to get to Freddie and Fannie which are totally ignored but will cost the taxpayer the most

Local Congressman Jeb Hensarling has it right He estimates there are about 3 unintended consequences on every page of that 1200-page bill

Oh the Kudlow links

httpwwwcnbccomid15840232video=1533514810ampplay=1

httpwwwcnbccomid15840232video=1533518497ampplay=1

I am aggressively working on my new book The End Game I hope it is going to a good one given the hours I am putting in

Have a great week

Your wishing he was back in Tuscany analyst

John Mauldin

Disclaimer

John Mauldin is president of Millennium Wave Advisors LLC a registered investment advisor All material presented herein is believed to be reliable

but we cannot attest to its accuracy Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors

before making any investment decisions

Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice John Mauldin andor the staffs at Millennium Wave Advisors LLC and

InvestorsInsight Publishing Inc (InvestorsInsight) may or may not have investments in any funds programs or companies cited above

PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS THERE IS RISK OF LOSS AS WELL AS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GAIN WHEN

INVESTING IN MANAGED FUNDS WHEN CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS INCLUDING HEDGE FUNDS YOU SHOULD CONSIDER

VARIOUS RISKS INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SOME PRODUCTS OFTEN ENGAGE IN LEVERAGING AND OTHER SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT

PRACTICES THAT MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF INVESTMENT LOSS CAN BE ILLIQUID ARE NOT REQUIRED TO PROVIDE PERIODIC PRICING

OR VALUATION INFORMATION TO INVESTORS MAY INVOLVE COMPLEX TAX STRUCTURES AND DELAYS IN DISTRIBUTING IMPORTANT TAX

John Mauldins Thoughts From The Frontline

John Mauldins Outside The Box

Forecasts amp Trends by Gary D Halbert

Daily Pfennig by Chuck Butler

Uncommon Wisdom by Tony Sagami

Casey Research ndash Doug Casey amp Staff

Global Emerging Markets by Charles Krakoff

Hard Assets Alliance

Mike Turnerrsquos CycleProphet

The Gold and Oil Guy ndash Chris Vermeulen

Investor Blogs Useful Links

Contact Us

Partners

Privacy Policy

Legal Statement

Who Is Online

INFORMATION ARE NOT SUBJECT TO THE SAME REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS AS MUTUAL FUNDS OFTEN CHARGE HIGH FEES AND IN

MANY CASES THE UNDERLYING INVESTMENTS ARE NOT TRANSPARENT AND ARE KNOWN ONLY TO THE INVESTMENT MANAGER

Communications from InvestorsInsight are intended solely for informational purposes Statements made by various authors advertisers sponsors

and other contributors do not necessarily reflect the opinions of InvestorsInsight and should not be construed as an endorsement by

InvestorsInsight either expressed or implied InvestorsInsight is not responsible for typographic errors or other inaccuracies in the content We

believe the information contained herein to be accurate and reliable However errors may occasionally occur Therefore all information and

materials are provided AS IS without any warranty of any kind Past results are not indicative of future results

Buy Silver Eagles AND Save 1 oz Silver Eagle In Stock Uncirculated Coins Volume Discounts Ships FAST Call or Shop Online 247

Posted 07-02-2010 1000 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under Employment Inflation Earnings Money Supply Economic Reform

Related Articles and PostsThings That Make You Go Hmmmhellip

Posted to John Mauldins Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-17-2012

American Gridlock Part 2

Posted to John Mauldins Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 02-06-2012

Forecast 2006 On the Gripping Hand

Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 01-06-2006

Here Comes Tarp 3 and 4

Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 01-24-2009

Casey Summit How Investors Can Protect Themselves in a Politicized Economy

Posted to Casey Research by Doug Casey on 10-03-2012

The Dismal Science Really Is

Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 07-02-2010

The Elements of Deflation

Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 09-04-2009

Save to delicious bull Digg This bull Share on Facebook bull Discuss on Newsvine bull Stumble It

A ds by Ly ricsParty

A ds by Ly ricsParty