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APEX BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS

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The Dilemma of decision making

Tools managers need

Hector Chapa Sikazwe,

Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2014

Keywords Decision making, strategy, Risk management, Leadership skills, Organization success, efficiency,

competition, Autocracy, participation, Compliancy, Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model, Business

models, Abraham Maslow, Competition, employment success, Decision making styles. Kepner-

Tregoe Matrix, Workflow Management, Process,

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Table of Contents

Keywords ........................................................................................................................................... 2

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 4

Decision making and time .............................................................................................................. 4

Two styles of Decision making ...................................................................................................... 5

Decision making models .................................................................................................................... 7

The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model ...................................................................................... 7

The Kepner-Tregoe Approach ....................................................................................................... 9

The Kepner-Tregoe Matrix comprises four basic steps: .......................................................... 11

Workflow Management/processes and decision making ................................................................. 12

Attributes of a good decision ........................................................................................................... 16

Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 19

References and Bibliography ........................................................................................................... 20

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Introduction

Decision making is an essential leadership skill. No matter what position one holds, from the board

room to the mailroom, one makes decisions every day. All successful end results in business are

directly linked to the quality of the decisions made at each point along the way. So not surprisingly,

decision-making is a universally important competence in the success of a business and business

strategy within organizations that have competitive advantage over others.

Some decisions clearly have a greater impact on the business than others, but the underlying skill is

the same: The difference is in the scope and depth of the process managers go through to reach a

decision. Thankfully, decision-making is a skill set that can

be learned and improved upon. Goleman et al (2004)

enthuses that somewhere between instinct and over-analysis

is a logical and practical approach to decision-making that

doesn't require endless investigation, which helps managers

to weigh up the options and impacts. Decisions do not have

to be rammed in, to a point that team members fear the

impact as it comes down.

Decision making and time

One reason why decision-making can be so problematic is that the most critical decisions tend to

have to be made in the least amount of time. Managers constantly feel pressured and anxious. The

time pressure means managers taking shortcuts,

jumping to wrong conclusions, or relying heavily

on instinct that guide most managers along the

way.

If one can learn how to make timely, well-

considered decisions, then one can lead teams to

well-deserved success. But, however, when one

keeps making poor decisions, one’s leadership or authority/employment will be brutally short.

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Making good decisions is one of the main leadership tasks and skill set a good manager develops.

Part of doing this is determining the most efficient1 and effective2 means of reaching the decision.

When efficiency and effectiveness are married when describing a decision, the decision is deemed

to have complete efficacy.

Two styles of Decision making

There are predominantly two styles of decision making: Autocratic decision making also known as

authoritarian leadership, is a leadership style characterized by an individual having control over all

decisions and allows little input from group members or subordinates. Autocratic managers typically

make choices based on their own ideas and judgments and rarely accept advice from team members.

Autocratic leadership style involves absolute, authoritarian control over a group or an organization,

department, section or small team.

The second style is called Participatory decision making or Participatory leadership which is a style

of management where decisions are made with the most feasible amount of participation from those

who are affected by the decisions. Participatory decision making style is being used as a leadership

management style today by a significant number of companies and organizations as it responds to

individual members of the organization based on and supported by the theory that participation

satisfies an employee's higher-level needs according to psychologist Abraham Maslow3.

Naturally, some decisions have to be Autocratic, and some decisions have to be participatory. The

individual decision making circumstances dictate when the pendulum swings from one end of the

spectrum to the other. When a Manager sits down to make a decision, the style, and degree of

participation he needs to get from his team is affected by three main factors:

1 Efficiency generally describes the extent to which time, effort or cost is well used for the intended task or purpose 2 Effectiveness is the capability of producing a desired result. When something is deemed effective, it means it has an intended or

expected outcome, or produces a deep, vivid impression. 3 Psychologist Abraham Maslow (1943, 1954) was an American psychologist who was best known for creating

Maslow's hierarchy of needs, a theory of psychological health predicated on fulfilling innate human needs in priority,

culminating in self-actualization. Maslow was a psychology professor at Brandeis University, Brooklyn College, New

School for Social Research and Columbia University. He stressed the importance of focusing on the positive qualities

in people, as opposed to treating them as a “bag of symptoms” stated that human motivation is based on people seeking

fulfilment and change through personal growth.

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1. Decision Quality – how important is it to come up with the “right” solution; the higher

the quality of the decision needed, the more he should involve other people in the

decision.

2. Subordinate Commitment – how important is it that his team and others buy into the

decision? If teammates need to embrace the decision a leader makes, then they should

increase the participation levels.

3. Time Constraints – How much time is available to make the decision? The more time

a leader has, the more the luxury of including others, and of using the decision making

process as an opportunity for teambuilding.

To determine which of these styles and processes is most appropriate, there is a series of yes/no

questions that the manager should ask himself about the situation, and building a decision tree

based on the responses. There are seven questions in total:

These are:

1. Is the technical quality of the decision very important? Meaning, are the consequences of

failure significant?

2. Does a successful outcome depend on your team members' commitment to the decision?

Must there be buy-in for the solution to work?

3. Do you have sufficient information to be able to make the decision on your own?

4. Is the problem well-structured so that you can easily understand what needs to be

addressed and what defines a good solution?

5. Are you reasonably sure that your team will accept your decision even if you make it

yourself?

6. Are the goals of the team consistent with the goals the organization has set to define a

successful solution?

7. Will there likely be conflict among the team as to which solution is best?

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Decision making models

From the above dilemma, the decision to decide which style is going to be applied in any given

situation, the Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model4 was developed to assist with such dilemma. A

leader would have to be extremely circumspect when adopting a particular decision making style. In

a nutshell, whether one is going to adopt an Autocratic style of decision making or a consultative or

participatory style, one depends on several factors, there are simple issues that need to be considered:

An autocratic style is most efficient when:

The manager has more or better expertise on the subject than others.

The manager is confident about acting alone.

The team will accept the Manager’s decision.

There is little time available.

The manager is tasked to manage a group decision outcome

In general, a consultative or collaborative style is most appropriate when:

A leader needs information from others to solve a problem.

The problem definition isn't clear.

Team members' buy-in to the decision is important.

The Manager has enough time

The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model

This model was originally described by Victor Vroom and Philip Yetton in their 1973 BOOK titled

Leadership and Decision Making. Later in 1988, Vroom and Arthur Jago, replaced the decision tree

system of the original model with an expert system based on mathematics. Hence it is not uncommon

to see the model called Vroom-Yetton, Vroom-Jago, and Vroom-Yetton-Jago. The model here is

based on the Vroom-Jago version of the model. This model helps an organization or a manager to

decide on which style is to be adopted when faced with a dilemma. In some business situations it's

better for a leader to be the decision maker on behalf of the group.

4 The Vroom–Yetton contingency model is a situational leadership theory of industrial and organizational psychology developed by Victor Vroom,

in collaboration with Phillip Yetton (1973) and later with Arthur Jago (1988). The situational theory argues the best style of leadership is contingent

to the situation. This model suggests the selection a leadership style for group decision making. (http://www.decision-making-confidence.com/vroom-

jago-decision-model.html)

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In others, it's best for the group to have some input or even make the decision. This model

distinguishes five different situations and outlines an algorithm for determining which one to use:

Style: Autocratic – you make the decision and inform

others of it.

There are two separate processes for decision

making in an autocratic style:

Processes: Autocratic 1(A1) – you use the information you

already have and make the decision

Autocratic 2 (A2) – you ask team members for

specific information and once you have it, you

make the decision. Here you don't necessarily

tell them what the information is needed for.

Style: Consultative – you gather information from the

team and other and then make the decision.

Processes: Consultative 1 (C1) – you inform team

members of what you're doing and may

individually ask opinions, however, the group is

not brought together for discussion. You make

the decision.

Consultative 2 (C2) – you are responsible for

making the decision, however, you get together

as a group to discuss the situation, hear other

perspectives, and solicit suggestions.

Style: Collaborative – you and your team work

together to reach a consensus.

Process: Group (G2) – The team makes a decision

together. Your role is mostly facilitative and

you help the team come to a final decision that

everyone agrees on.

The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model

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The Kepner-Tregoe Approach

Once the choice of decision making style is chosen, process becomes absolutely important and there

are different models that have been developed to deal with this. To solve seemingly impossible

problems and make consistently sound decisions, managers can’t always make a “best guess” and

hope for the best. Ever notice that jumping to

conclusions tends to result in costly mistakes? That

panic grows under pressure and the Kepner-Tregoe

Approach becomes very important. Also, ever noticed

that the best-laid plans are easily defeated by the

unexpected happening? Hunches, instinct, and pure

intuition may be inspiring, but they can lead to

unforeseen problems and erroneous decisions that can

cost a business huge setbacks and in some cases,

disastrous consequences. Today’s lean organizations face a dizzying array of issues ranging from

cost control, customer satisfaction, quality, and productivity to competition, change, technology and

more. People with diverse professional, educational, and cultural backgrounds must work together

to resolve issues under intense time pressure. By using Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and

Decision Making tool (PSDM), people can efficiently organize and analyze vast amounts of

information and take appropriate action. PSDM helps teams tap into the know-how of individuals,

develop consensus, gain commitment, and

resolve conflicts. Everyone is on the same

wavelength, using a common approach and

language. And everyone works towards the

same goal, regardless of background or

expertise.

The Kepner-Tregoe approach is based on the

premise that the end goal of any decision is to

make the “best possible” choice. This is a critical distinction: The goal is not to make the perfect

choice, or the choice that has no defects but to choose the one that has less defects in comparison to

others.

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With this model, the decision maker or manager must accept or anticipate some level of risk. An

important feature of the Kepner-Tregoe Matrix is to help evaluate and mitigate the risks of a

manager’s decision. Human beings have biases when making decisions and these can inadvertently

act as a barrier to proper decision making process within organizations and must as such be avoided.

The Kepner-Tregoe Matrix approach guides the decision maker through the process of setting

objectives, exploring and prioritizing alternatives, exploring the strengths and weaknesses of the top

alternatives, and of choosing the final “best” alternative. It then prompts the manager to generate

ways to control the potential problems that would crop up as a consequence of the decision.

This type of detailed problem and risk analysis helps a leader to make an unbiased decision. By

skipping this analysis and relying on gut instinct, the manger’s evaluation would be influenced by

his preconceived beliefs and prior experience, which is simply human nature and can lead to

disastrous results. Many business that ignore this warning are die sooner than anticipated.

The structure of the Kepner-Tregoe approach limits these conscious and unconscious biases as much

as possible. The application of process reengineering thought pattern helps in analyzing the entire

process from start to finish with each node/step

being considered as a complete cycle before

moving to the next stage. Concepts from workflow

management that has five parts to describe a node,

ie can help in making a process more successful

than simply rushing through the processes just for

the sake of completing the tasks at hand. The above

can be simplified by marrying the planning and

designing of every node carefully before

deploying.

After deploying, the decision or workflow must be allowed to prove its efficacy by being properly

analyzed and if need be, changes to the workflow being made by planning and redesigning, thus

going full cycle. This is properly supported by the The Kepner-Tregoe Matrix.

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The Kepner-Tregoe Matrix comprises four basic steps:

The Kepner-Tregoe Problem Solving and Decision Making process is actually four distinct

processes, each designed to address a specific type of situation:

(a) Situation Appraisal is used to separate, clarify, and prioritize concerns. When

confusion is mounting, the correct approach is unclear, or priorities overwhelm plans,

Situation Appraisal is the tool of choice.

(b) Problem Analysis is used to find the cause of a positive or negative deviation. When

people, machinery, systems, or processes are not performing as expected, Problem

Analysis points to the relevant information and leads the way to the root cause.

(c) Decision Analysis is used for making a choice. When the path ahead is uncertain,

when there are too many choices, or the risk of making the wrong choice is high,

Decision Analysis clarifies the purpose and balances risks and benefits to arrive at a

solid and supported choice.

(d) Potential Problem Analysis is used to protect actions or plans. When a project simply

must go well, risk is high, or myriad things could go wrong. Potential Problem

Analysis reveals the driving factors and identifies ways to lower risk.

Going through each stage of this process helps managers to come to the “best possible choice”, given

the manager’s competency, knowledge and understanding of the issues that bear on the decision.

This Matrix has a premise that managers are well informed, knowledgeable and experienced in that

particular field for them to be able to understand the technical component of the decision and task at

hand. This improved field of analysis provides businesses a clear competitive advantage, as

managers can assess the situation better and faster than competitors.

Success in business often comes from being one

step ahead of the competition and, at the same

time, being prepared to react to what the

competitors are doing their own business. With

global, real-time communication, ongoing rapid

improvements in information technology, and

economic turbulence, managers need to keep

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updating and revising their strategies to keep pace with the changing environment. Successful

businesses use novel models that outlines decision loops that supports quick, effective and proactive

decision-making.

The stages can be summarized as:

Observe: collect current information from as many sources as practically possible.

(Research/Compare)

Orient: analyses this information, and use it to update your current reality. (Re-

engineer/design)

Decide : Managers should determine a course of action efficiently (Deploy/Manage)

Act: Managers must be fully committed and follow through on the final decision

reached.(Analyse/evaluate)

Workflow Management/processes and decision making

With its ability to integrate with a wide variety of enterprise applications, Workflow can be used to

execute repeatable processes in a consistent manner across the organization, optimizing resource

efficiency, cost and service delivery. With easy streamlining of identifiable processes, decision

making becomes easier to effect and

many organization’s managers have

become more inclined to address

processes when addressing

challenges. According to Cray et al

(1991), Organization’s success is now

closely related to the efficiency of its

everyday business processes.

Increasingly, companies are spreading

“knowledge work” tasks, such as

research and product development,

overseas as a means to increase competitiveness, reduce costs, access new talent pools, and establish

a presence in emerging markets. Yet many organizations struggle to achieve the performance to

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which they aspire due to poor decision making. Mintzberg, and Waters. (1985) suggest that many

organizations continue to rely on outdated, manual processes that hamper productivity and interfere

with effective decision making. In today’s increasingly-complex global environment, it’s more

important than ever for organizations to streamline operations and to help staff focus more of their

time on revenue-generating activities that rely on timely decisions that propagate the organizations

path to success. Organizations still face numerous challenges, including:

(a) Management and staff resistance to working across borders under-utilization of staff

capabilities in developing countries

(b) Ineffective handoffs between organizations

(c) Staff turnover and rapidly escalating wages in developing countries

(d) Lack of shared goals and objectives to drive effective collaboration

(e) Negative impacts on staff morale and the working climate

One way to start addressing these challenges is to understand how decision-making (the assignment

of decision rights and accountabilities across a project or process) and workflow (the movement of

information, activities, and products) impact

the global organization’s effectiveness. The

following are some prerequisites managers

need to have to effect good decision making

process:

(a) High-quality data is obviously a

prerequisite for consistently sound

decision-making. The better the

quality of data, the less time mangers

spend debating the data rather than the decisions that have to be made. Managers gain greater

understanding of the company, her competitors and the environment, making it easier to

make strategic decisions. Though data compilation is the easiest part within the decagons

making process, there are basic issues that pose as a challenge for organizations:

I. Data integration: Strategic decisions typically require information from several

different computer systems, and organizations frequently underestimate the

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integration challenges involved. Organizations typically address data integration

on a project-by-project basis rather than with a more strategy approach. The result

is massive redundancy and poor quality. For faster integration and lower costs

over the long term, organizations should invest in a robust data integration

platform. Organizations should standardize the data integration process so that it

can be applied over a wider range of projects rather project by project.

II. Data quality: There is no known organization that doesn’t have a data quality

problem. The latest data quality technologies can help organizations answer

questions such as “which systems have the worst data quality?” and “where could

we get the most value from fixing poor quality data?” To improve executive

decision-making, organizations need to invest in systems that evaluate, monitor

and fix data quality.

III. Shared definitions: Effective decision-making requires a shared vocabulary.

Investing in “metadata management” technology can help organizations define

and maintain the definitions associated with their key business indicators and

reduce the number of board-room arguments that are uninspiring.

IV. Timeliness: Faster decisions mean better profits. In particular, organizations are

starting to realize the big benefits that come from investing in integrated financial

systems that help organizations close books faster. Instead of managing by

“looking out of the rear-view mirror”, organizations are investing in predictive

analytics that help to identify issues before hand.

V. Unstructured data: Managers need to be able to use data from all sources, not

just from certain types of databases. It’s increasingly important to be able to

extract intelligence from non-structured data sources such as documents or

emails. Investing in a wide range of software that can be used to extract data from

different formats and data sources. IT investment is vital for organizations that

want to access complex data bases and the training of members of staff to work

these systems is becoming increasingly vital for decision making processes.

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(b) Benchmarking5 and external data: organization’s own systems will rarely contain all the

information needed to make decisions. Benchmarking involves looking outward (outside a

particular business, organization, industry, region or country) to examine how others achieve

their performance levels and to understand the processes they use. In this way benchmarking

helps explain the processes behind excellent performance. When the lessons learnt from a

benchmarking exercise are applied appropriately, they facilitate improved performance in

critical functions within an organization or in key areas of the business environment. In order

to determine an organization’s real performance, and make the right decisions, there is need

to be able to compare and crunch numbers with the economy, the market, or competitors.

New “information on demand” technology is making this as simple as a click of the mouse

in most organizations.

(c) Governance, compliance and risk: Decisions can’t be made without considering risk, and

without considering existing regulatory environments. Doverspike, (2008) States that for

non-operational decisions, such as investment and design decisions, the need to convert risk-

management into rule-compliance is extremely important, although more controversial.

Nevertheless the decision

makers should be willing to

impose prescriptive technical

rules on themselves in relation

to non-operational decisions,

in the interests of safety. Risk-

management and rule-

compliance are inter-related strategies for promoting safety in hazardous and competitive

industries. They are co-existing and complementary, not contradictory. However risk-

management offers very little guidance to end point decision-makers; they need rules to

guide their decisions. Accordingly, it is important, even within a risk-management

framework that risk-management be translated into rule-compliance for end point decision-

makers, where possible. Bromiley and Devaki (201) stated that Organizations need to invest

5 Benchmarking is the process of identifying "best practice" in relation to both products (including) and the processes

by which those products are created and delivered. The search for "best practice" can take place both inside a particular

industry, and also in other industries (for example - are there lessons to be learned from other industries?).

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in risk management systems that are tightly integrated with the rest of their financial

applications and day to day strategic operations. When decisions are being made, decision

safety depends on organizations formulating relevant rules with which workers and the entire

organization must then comply ultimately. Risk management should culminate in rules,

where possible and developing non ambiguous framework is vital for successful decision

making process for any organization and decision makers.

(d) Transparency: Information transparency is key to maintaining high data standards.

Decision makers need to be able to see exactly where the data came from, how reliable it is,

how it was defined or manipulated, and when it was last updated. As a principle, public

officials, civil servants, managers and directors of companies and organisations and board

trustees have a duty to act visibly, predictably and understandably to promote participation

and accountability to the organizations they represent. Simply making information available

is not sufficient to achieve transparency. Large amounts of raw information in the public

domain may breed opacity rather than transparency. Information should be managed and

published so that when a decision is made, the information used should be:

(a) Relevant and accessible: when decisions are made, the information used should

be presented in plain and readily comprehensible language and formats

appropriate for different stakeholders. It should retain the detail and

disaggregation necessary for analysis, evaluation and participation. Information

should be made available in ways appropriate to different audiences.

(b) Timely and accurate: When decisions are made, the information used should be

made available in sufficient time to permit analysis, evaluation and engagement

by relevant stakeholders. This means that the information needs to be provided

while planning as well as during and after the implementation of policies,

decisions and programmes. Information should be managed so that it is up-to-

date, accurate, and complete an unambiguous to foster confidence.

Attributes of a good decision

Good decisions are often judged not so much by their outcomes as they are by the principles on

which they are based. Good decisions have common attributes that must transcend all arguments

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and must be based on specific structured styles, processes, and of course must benefit the

organization, department, section or team that the decision maker oversees. Below are a number of

specific attributes that should be apparent if a decision is to be regarded as being good:

a) Purpose: Decision makers should be able to explain why a decision was made. Questions like,

“What was the purpose of the decision in the first place?” Sometimes the reason or purpose is

clear, such as the decision to replace an employee who retires. Other times, it is not apparent why

a decision has been made. Examples could range from implementing a new policy in the

organization, introducing some change management strategy to closing down a poorly performing

department. When decisions are made to solve problems, decision makers want to know that the

decision addresses the root cause and not merely the symptoms.

b) Rationality: Decision makers should be able to describe how the decision was arrived

at. Decision makers should be able to demonstrate that the decision was not made arbitrary

without due considerations of prevailing facts. This is even more serious when dealing with

important decisions that have a large impact on employees and the organization as a whole.

The decision in such instances need to show that careful thought was used to make the decision

and the impact of negative repercussions controlled as much as possible.

c) Relevancy: Managers need to be able to articulate clearly the criteria used to discriminate the

alternatives of the decision. The decision makers should be able to justify why the alternative was

not taken on board. The criteria should be fair, relevant and known to all participating in the

decision making process. The fairness of the decision process depends on whether the criteria

used to make the decision are disclosed originally and that is where good managers thrive.

d) Transparency: As already explained, the level of transparency makes it easier to explain how the

criterion were weighted or scored against each other or how the process influenced the

decision. Decision making ratings are driven by underlying values and to factors that are

important to the organization. The weighting or scoring should reflect reasonable values and also

reflect a rationalization of other values that are disclosed.

e) Comprehensiveness: The decision maker should be able to demonstrate that there was adequate

exploration of alternatives in contention or consideration. Thoroughness of strong microscopic

scrutiny of the consequences of each alternative explored should be demonstrated. Incidentally,

some decisions are never going to be ‘right ‘and regardless of being right or wrong, stakeholders

would like to know that a broad set of options were explored and reasonable care was taken to

consider the consequences of each when the decision was finally made.

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f) Authenticity. A decision must reflect that honest evaluation of the alternatives was done with an

open mind. Managers should not make a decision and then use the decision process to rationalize

or legitimize the process or selection of decision. Deciding first and then asking stakeholders to

‘punch holes’ in the logic of the decision is not decision making. At that point, it is merely a

debate and perhaps an indication of an autocratic leadership style, which is not preferred.

g) Inquisitive. Decision makers must clearly be able to show to what extent they solicited others to

participate in the decision making process to provide knowledge, experience, and expertise to

increase the credibility of the decision. It is important to demonstrate to what extent the views of

those either affected by the decision or those

who would be responsible for executing the

decision. It is inevitable that not all decisions

are going to appear to be fair when some

groups are affected disproportionately by the

decision. A good decision must at least

show that that the views of those most

affected by the decision were heard and

considered. While it doesn’t necessarily

take a team to vote on a decision, it makes

sense to have a team participate in the

decision making process to increase the

chances of finding and selecting the best

alternative or solution.

h) Economy: Decisions must demonstrate that the time and resources consumed by the decision

making process was in fact commensurate with the magnitude and importance of the decision.

Decision makers must determine whether they are over-analyzing smaller problems and decisions

that should perhaps be delegated and made at different levels. Granted, for really important

decisions with a large impact, decision must be seen to take the appropriate amount of time to

analyze the decision? The decision must provide Best Value for money. If the alternatives have

an economic cost, Managers must demonstrate that if the least expensive option was selected, it

didn’t sacrifice features and merits viewed as important but residing in the alternative.

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Conclusion

Great decision making takes practice. When we think of what makes someone a good manager, one

characteristic that comes to mind is “decisiveness”. We do not envision successful a good manager

standing around appearing unclear, confused and uncertain. Instead, we view them as people who

are able to quickly arrive at their decisions and communicate the goals to others in the quickest time

available. Great leaders also know when to move quickly and proceed with the available information,

versus when to take more time and gather additional information. When leaders opt to pursue

additional information or avenues, they must also know when to stop. While a large amount of data

may be desirable in a perfect world, the data gathering process can utilize too much time, and the

vast amount of data can also be paralyzing and take attention away from the big picture or key data

points.

Good Managers understand how to balance emotion with reason and make decisions that positively

impact themselves, their employees, their customers and stakeholders, and ultimately their

organizations. Making good decisions in difficult situations is no small attribute because some types

of decisions involve change, uncertainty, anxiety, stress, and sometimes the unfavorable reactions

of others. In order to make strategic, long-term decisions, good managers must know how to bring

down the intense emotional reaction so that they can engage a different part of their expertise and

qualifications which is responsible for looking at the big picture and long-term planning.

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