THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF TRADESMEN

TASHANIA'S FUTURE PROSPECTS IN THE

AUTOMOTIVE I"NDUSTRY.

by_

DAVID JOHN QUINN

November 1977

This dissertation is submitted

as part of the requirements for

an Honours Degree in Economics

at the

University of Tasmania.

I, the undersigned, hereby certify that

this dissertation represents my o\m original

work, that it contains no material which

has already been published, or otherwise used

by me, and that to the best of my knmdedge

it contains no copy or paraphrase of material

previously written by another person or

authority except where due acknowledgment

is made.

David John

PREFACE

For a number of years there appears to hs.ve been shortages

of suitably qualified tradesmen in most trades. Further it has been

suggested that due to a misallocation of .resources within the education

system (i.e., an over-emphasis of higher educat:ion) the problem will

not be solved by current apprenticeship completions. The present

undersupply situation is thus expected to continue and perhaps worsen

over the next four years.

The purpose of this study is to examine the situation as it

applies to the automotive industry in Tasmania; to substantiate or

repudiate the claim and suggest suitable corrective measures if these

are required.

In conducting this study a total of 81 firms, representing

approximately 60% of the Tasmanian automotive industry, were personally

surveyed. The material reproduced in Chapters 3, 4 and 5 should prove

of particular interest to these firms.

The format adopted is as follows. In Chapter 1 the topic is

introduced, set in conte.xt and the problem to be analysed stated

explic:l.tly.

Chapter 2 outlines the analytical framevmrk adopted~ explainin?,

how the methodology chosen had to be sufficiently flexible to deal

with an applied problem of this type, fn addition to being thcoreti-

cally rigorous.

The stock flow model developed in Chapter 2 is combined with

the survey data in Chapter 3 and estimates of the expected future

(iii)

demand and BL~:pply in the five trades covered, are made.

The results, the limitations therein and how the approach

adopted could be improved upon are discussed in Chapter 4. The

responses to the more descriptive survey questions are also presented

in this Chapter. They support the results of tlw calculations made

in Chapter 2, in addition to providing an explan3tion of how the

present imbalance has occurred, and suggestions of hoH it may be

overcome.

Finally, Chapter 5 summarizes the problem, and presents the

final conclusions and reco1nmcndations. Although some of the problems

discussed are unique to the automotive industry, many others are not.

This Chapter therefore has relevance to all occupations in Hhich train­

ing is based on an apprenticeship, or similar, system and where the

ability to employ apprentices is closely related to the size of the

employing firm.

(iv)

ACKNmJLEDGEMENTS

The writer is greatly indebted to his supervisor, Mr. A.

Hocking (Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Tasmania)

and the other members of the Economics and Accounting Departmentsat

the University of Tasmania for advice and support given in the pre­

paration of this dissertation. Also, to the Apprenticeship Commission

of Tasmania, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Commonwealth

Department of Employment and Industrial Relations, the Research Branch

of the Education Department of Tasmania (especially to Mrs. H. Hocking

for her assistance in the design of the questionnaire), the Franchised

Dealers Association, the Tasmanian Colleges of Technical and Further

Education and the members of the many firms who co-operated in the

survey of the expected future demand for tradesmen in the automotive

industry. Finally, to Mrs. N. Gill, Mrs. J. Easther and Mrs. M.

Russell for their meticulous typing of the manuscript and associated

material.

(v)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Statement of the problem

1.2 The Automotive Industry

1.3 Definition of tradesmen

1.4 List of trades covered

2. PJ\ALYTICAL FRAHEWORK

2.1 Discussion of the alternative forecasting

iii.

1

1

2

4

4

6

procedures 6

2.2 The stock-flow model

2.3 The Survey

3. PRESENTATION OF RESULTS AND CALCULATIONS

3.1 The Stock-flow model incorporating survey data

..

4. AN EXAHINATION OF TilE RESULTS, THE LIMITATIONS

8

13

15

15

THEREIN AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER STUDY 29

4.1 Limitations in the data and methodology 29

4.2 A discussion of the under-supply problem 31

4.3 Suggestions for further study 40

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOHHENDATIONS

5.1 A note on problem solving

5.2 A summary of the facts

5.3 The alternatives

5.4 Final recommendations

APPENDICES

SELECTE.J BIBLIOGRAPHY

(vi)

42

42

42

45

49

50

73

1..

CHAPTER 1.

INTRODUCTION

1 Statement of

Despite the apparent preoccupation of many policy makers

with the higher academic disciplines, society as we know it requires

a stock of suitably qualified persons at the trade level. The recent

trend in society towards emphasizing higher levels of education has

served to make trades increasingly unattractive to young people,who.

have become socially conditioned to expect something more than a manual

occupation. This social conditioning is not confined to young persons

and many qualified tradesmen have put down their tools in search of

something better.

Unfortunately the need for trades and tradesmen has not de-

creased to accommodate this social change 1 and it is here that the pro-

blem begins to develop. The present rate of adult unemployment in

1 Tasmania is between 3.5 and 4%. The rate of unemployment of tradesmen

in the automotive industry is only 1.2%~ with registered vacancies

actually exceeding registered unemployed.

The purpose of this study is firstlyJ to examine the future

employment prospects of tradesmen in the automotive industry in

Tasman in. Secondly, to assess the ability of the existing apprentice-

ship system. to supply the required number of tradesmen to meet the

1. Rased on as yet unpublished Australian Rureau of Statistics sample estimates.

2. Based on Commonwealth Employment Service statewide check of registered unemployed (30.9.1977) anci survey estinates of 'l.,mrkforce size. (Table 3c,)

2.

expected future demand and thirdly, to provide recommendations for

improvements should the existing apprenticeship system appear to be

inadequate.

1.2 The Automotive Indust~

The decision to restrict the enquiry to one industry was one of

necessity rather than choice. Primarily the decision to concentrate

on one industry was taken .in order to keep the task within manageable

proportions. The automotive industry was chosen because it is a major

employer of tradesmen and therefore deserving of study, and because

it was envisaged that the required statistical information would be

available for this industry.

The industrial structure in the automotive industry has changed

markedly over the last four years. The large franchised dealers, who

in 1972-73 accounted for more than 50% of the retail service work3

done in the industry, have had their market share decreased to approxi-

mately 30%. The high overhead costs associated with maintaining large

workshops has meant that these firms have been unable to compete with

small firms in terms of the labour rate charged per hour of se1~ice.

They have responded by trying to rationalise the size of their service

operations. These rationalizations have taken the form of

(1) closure of bodyworks.

(2) decreased employment of unskilled andseniskilled

labour such as messenger boys, car cleaners.

odd-jobs men and tea ladies.

3. The term "retail service work" refers to service work whi.ch is actually paid for by the consumer. Warranty \v-ork, t~hi.ch is paid for by the manufacturer has not been affected. From the franchised dealers' point of viev this is of little comfort as the \Jage rate allowed on su~h Hark is set by the manufacturer, at a level which is often below cost.

(3) decreased employment of tradesmen on

retail work, and,

(4) decreased intake of apprentices.

3.

The problem faced by many of the large firms is that despite

their attempts to rationalize, they are st unable to justify their

present level of operation in terms of a satisfactory rate of return

4 on investment. Discussions with the management of such firms dis-

closed a widely held belief that,with the move towards a taxation

financed welfare state, is no incentive for private business to

expand and take risks. The expected after-tax return for so doing is

not sufficient to compensate for the additional risk involved.

The problemsfaced by the larger firms would tend to imply a

gloomy future for tradesmen in the automotive industry. This is not

the case as the adjustment has been taken up by smaller concerns such

as petrol stations, partnerships and a mushrooming of backyard oper-

a tors, The speed with lvhich these smaller firms have been able to

setup has further eroded the competitive position of the larger firm~

who are unable to compete on a price bas:l.s and must therefore rely on

offering a superior quality of workmanship, along with the ability to . 5

handle the larger jobs which the smaller firms cannot.

Unfortunately, the ease with which tradesmen have found alter-

native employment1 with smaller firms,has not been matched by those

seeking apprenticeships. It is this failure of the market to ensure

---·-----4. O~vner-managers of both large and small firms often commented

during interviews that they would be better off (financially and mentally) if they sold out, invested the money in a bank on fixed deposit and went to work for someone else.

5. The lmver profitability on larger jobs also results in smaller firms who have sufficient '"ork, being disinterested in doing this work anyway.

4.

that suff::lcien_t places exist for apprentices which perpetuates the

present undersupply of tradesmen. The basic problem which this paper

sets out to tackle is thus the anomalous situation of excess demand

for tradesmen accompanied by a deficient demand f·:•r apprentices.

6 From the outset a universally acceptable definition of trades-

men was required. For the course of thi.s study a tradesman is defined

as a person, either male or female, who holds a formally recognized

trade qualification1 such as a four-year indentured apprenticeship.

This definition proved to be both serviceable and consistent with the

general usage of the term in industry.

t of trades covered

Due to the comparatively small size of the automotive industry

in Tasmania some specialist trades provide ins~fficient numbers to

generate meaningful results. It was thus decided to investigate only

the following five trades (a) Automotive Electrician (b) Diesel Mechanic (c) Hotor Mechanic (d) Panel Beater

and (e) Vehicle Painter.

lUth the exception of diesel mechanics it was possible to

obtain satisfactory for each of t'hese trades. The diesel mechanic

6. The defin:i.tion adopted must be "universally accepted" j_n that it must be both consistent \·lith previously collected statist­ical data and also with the general usage of the term "tradesmen" in industry. An alternative, narrower definition which excluded those persons \vho failed their technical training, and hence did not obtain the Certificate of Profic issued by the Apprentice-ship Conmtission~ was rejected on these grounds.

s.

category provided particular problems due to the existence of a number

of listings that were not mutually exclusive such as diesel fitter,

fitter (diesel) and fitter. With the possible exception of this trade

the data presented appears satisfactory.

6.

CHAPTER 2.

ANALYTICAL FR.A.."'1EHORK

7

A forecast tray be defined as a statement concerning unknown

future events. There are five approaches to making long range fore-

casts.

(a) The status quo approach

(b) The consensus approach

(c) The extrapolation approach

(d) The correlation and leading indicator approach, and

(e) The econometric modeling approach.

The status quo approaah is based on the assumption that the

future will be a continuation of the present. The accuracy of its

results is accordingly dependent upon the validity of this extremely

naive assumption.

The aonsensue approaah involves the polling of various experts

in a field to obtain their opinions as to the expected value of the

target variable in any particular year. The obvious problem inherent

in this approach is how to reconcile any conflicting opinions of the

experts polled.

Extrapolation models of varying degrees of sophistication have

been developed. Their basic characteristics are the restriction of

the stochastic information available for extrapolation to the past

history of the variable being studied, and the implicit assumption that

7. The following discussion is based on R.H. Besdek's article, "The State of the Art - Long Range Economic and Hanpower Forecasting", Long Range Planning~ Volume 8, Number 1, February 1975, pp. 31-42. I

t \ ~

7.

past trends will continue into the The usefulness of such

models is limited by the validity of these assumptions •. They are.

therefore, more suited to short.period rather than long period

casting.

Corretation and leading indicator approaches differ from extra­

polation techniques in that they forecast on the basis of information

obtained from other economic·variables,rather than on the basis of

information obtained from the history of the variable being forecast.

Unless some basic underlying economic process is actually in operation,'

the possibility of the existence of spurious correlation limits the

usefulness these approaches.

Econometric modeling approaches employ systems of equations

formulated on the basis of economic theory. Such models are regarded

as offering the best hope for viable long range forecasting and their

development has been greatly assisted by the increase in computer­

sophistication in the past two decades. The greatest limitation of

these models is their inability to yield estimates sufficient detail

for many purposes of long range economic and manpmver forecasting.

Their use for such purposes requires their integration with input out­

put models; that is, the use of an economy wide econometric model

to determine the aggregate economic and manpower variables, with an

input-output submodel allowing analysis at the industry or occupation

level.

The approach finally adopted was an input-output version of

the extrapolation approach. This method was preferred because it

was flexible. enough to make use of the ed data available whilst

still being sufficiently rigorous to be theoretically justifiable.

8.

2.2. Stock-flow Model

The analysis was couched in terms of a stock flow model in

which the projected supply of tradesmen in each year between 1978 and

1981 was compared with the expected future demand for tradesmen as

derived from the survey returns.

The procedure adopted may be divided into six stepsw

{1) The determination of the stock of tradesmen in each of

the five trades at the starting point.

{2) The determination of whether an excess demand or an

excess supply of tradesmen exists in each trade at the·

starting point.

(3) The projection from current enrolments of the number

of apprentices expected to become qualified in each

year up to June 30, 1981.

(4) The application of a wastage factor to the stock of

tradesmen at the beginning of each period in order

to determine the available supply at the end of that

period, after allowing for projected apprenticeship

completions.

(5) The determination of the expected future demand for

tradesmen in each year up to June 30, 1981, and

(6) The determination of \vhether an excess demand or an

excess supply of tradesmen is expected to exist in

each of the four years up to June 30, 1981.

Stock of 7

It ,.;as anticipated that the opening stock of tradesmen figure

would be available from three alternative sources. Firstly, from

Lhe updating of existing statistical data. Secondly, by applying

the formula:

Number of tradesmen employed ·in the automotive industry

Number of apprentices em£lo~ed in all firms Number of apprentices employed in firms surveyed

9.

Number of tradesmen em­ployed in firms surveyed,

and thirdly, by polling a number of leading persw.s in the automotive

industry and from their responses arriving at consensus estimates of

the number of tradesmen in each trade.

Although the results all three approaches are presented

in Chapter 3, only the results for the last two methods are satisfact-

ory. It was not possible to successfully update existing statistical

information because

(1) the 1976 Census data giving a breakdo\~1 of population by

highest qualification obtained will not be available until February

1978, and

(2) the classification of population by highest qualification used

in the 1971 Census does not give a sufficiently detailed breakdown

for the purpose of this study.

smen exists at the s t.

An examination of the registered unemployed and registe~ed job

vacancy figures with the Commonwealth Employment Service1

over the

period immediately prior to when the survey was taken, enables the

demand and supply figures at this time to be derived from the employ-

ment of tradesmen figures. The relevant section of the survey question-

naire when restated on an industry basis, also provides a means of

assessing the existing demand and supply conditions in each trade.

ions

Expected apprenticeship completions may be determined hy

10.

applying time techniques to past commencements and completions

data. Unfortunately such an approach requires a long data series

and since such a series was not available, this approach was not

feasible.

Alternatively, completions to commenceme~ts ratios (C) may be

determined from the data available and then applied to commencement

figures for four years earlier in order to determine expected future

completions. The realism of these calculations may be checked by

ring to the number of apprentices currently in each year of training,

and the expectations of the technical colleges and the Apprenticeship

Commission with respect to the ability of these persons to complete

their apprenticeship. This approach implicitly assumes that histori­

cally determined completions to commencements ratios will remain rele­

vant in the future. This assumption although justifiable for purposes

of short run forecasting may not be so for forecasts of longer duration.

Two factors must be taken account of eKplicitly in determin~

ing the C ratios. Firstly, the completions of any one year come large-·

from the commencements of four years earlier and secondly, the t~rm

of apprenticeship was decreased from five to four years on 29.6.71.

In the determination of any C ratio it is therefore necessary to

completions by four periods and also to make an allm.;ance for the

change in the period of indenture.

The completions:commencements ratios used in Chapter 3 of this

dissertation were accordingly determined by the ratio of total comple­

tions bet"1een 1967-68 and 1976-77 to total commencements between 1962~

63 and 1972-73. These ratios were then aprlied to the cotm~encement

figures in each trade between 1973-74 and 1976-77 to determine the

11.

expected completions in each trade between 1977-78 and 1980-81.

of tradesmen in

The supply of tradesmen in each period may be determined using

the following formulae:

(1)

7 (2)

where St is the expected supply of tradesmen

in a given trade in period t.

- St-l is the supply of tradesmen in the

given trade in period t-1.

- w is the expected wastage rate.

- C0

t is the expected number of apprentice-

ship completions in the given trade in period t.

- C 4 is the number of apprenticeship t-

commencements in the given trade in period t-4.

and,

- d is the dropout rate of apprentices

during training.

Equation (1) states that the supply of tradesmen in a given

trade in period t is directly related to the apprenticeship completions

in that trade in period t and the supply of tradesmen in period t-1,

after appropriate adjustment has been made for wastage of tradesmen

over the period,

Equation (2) states that expected apprenticeship completions

in a given trade in period t are some dlrect proportion of commence-

ments four perio~d earlier.

12.

The expected future demand for trndesmen

No generally accepted technique exists for determining expected

future demand. It was decided to use a direct approach and survey

industry itself, then use these returns to determine aggregate expected

future demand. It was in this context that the questionnaire outlined

below was designed. The procedure adopted in administering the question-

naire was (1) to ascertain whether existing apprentices were expected

to be maintained as tradesmen upon the completion of their apprentice-

ship (i.e., assuming 100% completions);

(2) to determine whether given these additional tradesmen the

firm concerned felt that it would have sufficient tradesmen available

to meet natural wastage and any anticipated expansion, and

(3) to adjust the figures obtained accordingly to determine

the expected new tradesmen required.

The aggregate figures obtained through the survey thus give the

expected number of tradesmen required by these firms to offset natural

wastage and allow for any additional requirements. From the individual

firm's point of view, "new" tradesmen refers to both apprenticeship com-

pletions and tradesmen obtained from other firms. From industry's

point of view, "new" tradesmen refers only to apprenticeship completions

because tradesmen obtained from another firm do not represent either a

gain or loss to the industry.

The expected demand for tradesmen in a given trade in period t

:i.s thus Dt where

D l (1-\v) + AT t- t

(3)

D is the demand for tradesmen in the t-1 given trade in period t-1.

w is the expected wastage rate, and

ATt is the expected number of new trades-· men required by the indpstry in

13.

period t (i.e., the number of trades­men required to replace those who leave the trade and also to meet any additional requirements.)

Evaluation of the exEected ~uture conditions.

Two alternative techniques exist for evaluating the ability of

the present apprenticeship system to provide the required flow of

qualified tradesmen. Firstly, as the demand for each of the five trades

being considered is not expected to decline in the next four years,

the number of "new" tradesmen forthcoming must be sufficient to offset

any wastage of the existing stock (i.e., maintain the status quo).

Secondly, there must be sufficient new tradesmen forthcoming to meet

the expected additional requirements of industry. These expected addi-

tional requirements must in some way be verified to ensure their

8 relevance.

2.3 The Sunzey

The major problem encountered in the course of preparing this

dissertation was the lack of suitable statistical data available. The

survey of f1rms in the industry thus constitutes an integral part of

thj_s dissertation. The questionnaire which is reproduced in full in

Appendix A follows closely the six stages outlined above. It was

specifically designed so that each question logically built on the

former~thus giving both the interviewer and the interviewee continuity

of thought and the opportupity to assess the position of each firm vis

~ vis its expected future demand for tradesmen. Additional questions

were also included to enable the interviewee to express his opinion on

8. There may be sufficient apprenticeship completions to satisfy an overly pessimistic expected future demar..d by industry, but thi.s would not stop an expost shortage from occurring. The converse is also true, thus industry's e~timates must in some way be veri­fied. The naive "status quo" calculations torm the first step in this process.

14.

(1) the cause of the industry's present problems,

(2) the effectiveness of government in dealing with these problems, ar

(3) the alternative solutions available.

15.

CHAPTER 3.

PRESENTATION OF RESULTS ANn CALCULATIONS.

3.1. Stock-flow model inc~ating_survey data

of tradesmen at 1977

Reliable figures for the opening·stock of tradesmen in each

trade proved extremely difficult to obtain becau3e they were not avail­

able from any existing source. The 1976 Census data9 would have pro-

vided a satisfactory starting point however the breakdown of qualifi-

cations by trade data will not be available until February 1978, and

only then in the form of a fifty percent sample.

It was decided to update the 1971 Census f:i.gures. The classi-

fication system used at this time did not give a sufficiently detailed

breakdmm of qualifications by trade, thus despite five computer runs

the best figures obtainable were:

Motor Panel Automotive Electricians

Diesel Nechanics Mechanics Beaters

Vehicle Painters

14 887 1

Although these figures lvere clearly unf>atisfactory it l·TaS decid-

ed to update the automotive electrician and motor mechanic figures as

reference points for the other estimates. 10 The wastage rate suggested

in \vork of th:i.s kind and the rate applied throughout this study, is ---·---9. It must be realized that census data only gives a breakdown

of the population by highest qualification obtained. It therefore only gives the potential supply of qualified tradesmen. The number of persons actually using their trade qualifications 1s likely to be far less.

10. The usual procedure adopted is to decide upon a plausible, expected rate which is then used for all calculations, If the results of the calculations are found to differ significantly when different rates are applied then note is made of this fact. A 5% per annum lvastage rate "Tas used in the "Report of the Fact Finding Committee on the Apprenticeship System in the Building Trade'', Western Australian Government Printer, March 1962.

16.

5% per annum. _This rate is consistent with the survey findings. 11

Automotive st-1 1- w· cot St tricians

Stock June 30 1972 = 14 (1 .05) + 3 .. , t:. AU

Stock June 30 1973 "" 16 (1 - .OS) + 11 "" 26

Stock June 30 1974 = 26 (1 - .OS) + 2 "' 27

Stock June 30 1975 "" 27 (1 ... .05) + 7 "" 33

Stock June 30 1976 "" 33 (1 - .OS) + 10 "" 41

Stock June 30 1977 = 41 (1 - .05) + 13 = 53 ===

Motor Mechanics

Stock June 30 1972 "" 887 (1 - .05) + 75 = 918

Stock June 30 1973 918 (1 - .05) + 81 "" 953

Stock June 30 1974 = 953 (1 - .05) + 72 "" 977

Stock June 30 1975 "" 977 (1 - .05) + 87 "" 1015

Stock June 30 1976 "' 1015 (1 - .05) + 136 = 1100

Stock June 30 1977 "" 1100 (1 - .05) + 86 = 1131 ==g;=

In the course of conducting this study a total of 81 firms

12 were personally surveyed. Several of these firms offered to obtain

statewide figures from their associated companie.s thus the final cover-

age of the survey was in excess of 100 firms comprising approxit:~ately

60% of the industry. The firms interviewed employed a total of 911

11. From the survey 38 persons interviewed did not regard the leakage of tradesmen from their trade as being significant, 34 persons did, and 9 did not know. Conservatively it appeared tlL."lt 160 tradt~smen had left their trade in the previous f:!.ve years. Eased on the current employment estimates in the auto­motive industry (table 3c.) the wastage rate for motor mechanics bet\veen 1972 and 1977 was 5,1% per annum while the wastage :r.ates in the other four trades were concentrated around 4.5% per annum.

12. Discuss1ons ,..rith members of the Commonwealth Departmes.1t of Employment and Industrial Relations sug15ested that a response rate of bet,,·een 20-30% could be expected on written requests for information, hence the necessity for the interview approach.

17.

tradesmen and /~37 apprentices in the five trades under consideration

(refer Tables 3a. and 3b. below). Of the tradesmen employed 130 were

in management or supervisory positions requiring trade qualifications

(e.g., Service Manager, Service Advisor and Workshop Foreman).

3a. Current Employmentof Tradesmen in the Firms Surveyed (30.9.~977)

Automotive Electricians Diesel Mechanics Hotor Mechanics Panel Beaters Vehicle Painters

69 69

499 167 107

TABLE 3b. Current Employment of Apprentices in the

Yr.2 Yr.3

Automotive Electricians 7 8 7 Diesel Hcchanics 10 10 11 Hotor Hechanics 61 68 62 Panel Beaters 18 23 24 Vehicle Painters 13 14 9

109 123 113

Total

8 30 9 40

59 250 9 74 7 43

92 437

The information presented in Tables 3a. and 3b. enabled the

formula -

apprentices f

in

X Number of tradesmen employed in firms surveyed

to be applied with the results given in Table 3c.

Number of trades­men employed in the automotive industry.

The final option of polling a numher of leading persons in the

automotive industry and from their responses arriving at consensus

estimates for the number of tradesmen in each trade yielded the results

presented in Table 3d. below. Although based on less than full inform-

ation and biased by the particular segment of the industry with which

TABLE 3c. Estimates of the number of Tradesmen employed in the Automotive Industry, based on the of a represent-

(1) (2) (3) (4) Trade No. of No. of Total Appren- Inverse of

tradesmen apprentices tices employ- the esti-employed employed in ed in mate of in Firms Firms Tasmania. trade Surveyed. Surveyed. coverage

(3).;- (2)

-----Automotive 69 30 33 1.10 Electricians

Diesel 69 40 137 3.43 Mechanics

Hot or Mechanics 499 250 421 1.68

Panel Beaters

Vehicle Painters

TOTAL

TABLE 3d.

167 74 118 1.59

107 43 69 1.60

911 437 778

Consensus Estimates of the Number in Each Trade.

Automotive Electricians

Diesel Mechanics

Motor Hechanics

Panel Beaters

Vehicle Painters

80 - 100

200 - 250

850 -1000

300 - 400

150 - 21+0

18.

(5) Est.No. of traces-men ed in the automotive industry

76

236

840

266

172

1590

the respondent is most familiar, these estimates are very close to

those derived from the survey data. They also suggest that the updated

census data is incorrect, as was expected. The figures presented

in Table 3c were therefore adopted as the starting point for the demand

and supply calculations.

19.

The registered unemployed and registered vacancies informa-

tion required was n~t available in sufficient detail through normal

sources. The Commonwealth Department of Employment and Industrial

Relations kindly consented to make a statewide check their individ-

ual registers to e·:J.sure that the breakdown of their records by trade

was consistent with the classification used in this study. The results

of this check are presented in Table 3e.

TABLE 3e. Statewide Check of C.E.S. Registers 30.9.1977

Automotive Electrician Diesel Hechanic Motor Hechanic Panel Beater Veh:i.lle Painter

Tradesmen

Registered Registered Unemployed_

1 3

12 2

2 8

10 1

33

From the survey, 62 firms stated that their present workforce

was sufficient to meet their current requirements, 14 firms stated that

it was not and 5 firms stated that they '"ere overstaffed. The number

of vacancies and overstaffings cancelled out with respect to automotive

electricians and diesel mechanics hut in the motor mechanic, panel

beating and vehicle painting trades there were excess vacancies of 4,

4 and 3 respectively. As the survey coverage in these three trades

was approximately 60%, the equiva.lent net shortages on an industry basis

are 7 , 7 and 5 • These figures represent a fairly conservative esti-

mate of the present shortage of tradesmen in the trades covered.

20 •.

From the workforce size estimates (Table 3c.) and the register-

ed unemployed figures (Table 3e.) the supply of tradesmen in each

trade at September 30, 1977, may be determined. Similarly the corres-

ponding demand figures may be obtained by adjusting the workforce size

estimates for registered vacancies, and then applying the survey based

differences between demand and supply as a check, making adjustments

·as required. The results of these calculations are presented in Table

3f. below.

TABLE 3£. Estimated market Situation at September 30, 7.

Automotive Electrician Diesel 1·1echanic Motor Mechanic Panel Beater Vehicle Painter

Demand

78 244 859 276 180

S~.J:.

77 239 852 268 173

P~jected apprenticeship completions

A sufficiently long data series did not exist to allow the use

of a time series approach to the projection of apprenticeship comple-

tions. Completions to commencements ratios were therefore caiculated

for each trade and then applied to the commencements figures bet\veen

1973-74 and 1976-77. The results of these calculations are presented

in Table 3h. The C ratio for each trade was determined by dividing

total completions for the period 1967-68 to 1976-77 by total commence-

n1ents for the period 1962-63 to 1972-73. These calculations are shown

in Table 3g.

The plausibility of the e?pected apprenticeship completion

figures 1 presented in Table 3h., \vas confirmed by those persons at

the Apprenticeship Commission and the Hobart Technical Colle.ge to

whom they were shown. They are also plausible from the

21.

TABLE 3g_. Calculation of Completions to Commence-

Automotive Electrician

Fitter (Diesel)

Motor Mechanic

Panel Beater

Vehicle Painter

(1) Total Completions 1967-68 to 1976-77.

69

204

870

209

126

(2) Total Commence­ments 1962-63 to

80

229

1088

295

179

(3) Completions to Commencements

Ratios (1) .; (2)

.863

.891

.BOO

.708

.704

TABLE 3h Expected Apprenticeship Completions at the ----Above Completions to Commencement~~Ratios

1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 TOTAL 1977-78

to 1980-1981

Automotive Electrician 11 10 9 7 37

Fitter (Diesel) 44 30 37 142

No tor l-1echanic 111 93 98 105 407

Panel Beater 28 28 28 26 110

Vehicle Painter 22 13 17 16 68

216 174 189 185 764

point of vie.w of current technical college enrolments (Refer Appendix D),

The of tradesmen in each

Given the estimated stock of tradesmen in each trade at

September 30, 1977(Table 3f.) and the projected apprenticeship com-

pletions for the next four years (Table 3h.) it is possible to calcu-

late the expected supply of tradesmen in each year up to June 30, 1981.

The results of these calculations are presented in Table 3i.

22.

TABLE 3:1.. Tradesmen -----

TRADE Year Projected Expected s 1 1 - w Apprentice- Future t--

ship ~omple- Supply r on<: -------- ~

Automotive Electrician 1978 77 .9625 (.75) 11 82 -- 1979 .95 10 88

1980 .95 9 93 1981 .95 7 95

Deisel -~1ec han i c. 1978 239 .9625 (. 75) 44 263

1979 .95 30 280 1980 .95 37 303 1981 .95 31 319

Motor --~

Mechanic. 1978 852 .9625 (. 75)111 903 1979 .95 93 951 1980 .95 98 1001 1981 .95 105 1056

Panel -Beater 1978 268 .9625 (.75) 28 279

1979 .95 28 293 1980 .95 28 306 1981 .95 26 317

Vehicle PLin_ 1978 173 .9625 (. 7 5) 22 183

1979 .95 13 183 1980 .95 17 195 1981 .95 16 201. -

··-<- ,_

23.

As the starting point for the future supply calcuLations was

not July 1~ .1977, as initially intended, two adjustments are required

to the 1978 supply calculations in each trade. Firstly, the expected

wastage rate must be adjusted from a yearly rate of 5% to a nine month-

ly rate of 3.75% and, secondly, the expected completions in 1977-78

must be adjusted to allow for apprenticeship completions in the three

months, June 30 to September 30, 1977.

The appropriate formulae for the expected future supply calcu-

lations are those outlined in Chapter 2 namely,

st-1 (1 - w) + cot

ct_4 (1 - d)

(1)

(2)

The diesel mechanic calculations implicitly assume that all

fitter (diesel) completions will become diesel mec:1anics.

furure demand for tradesmen

13 In order to determine the expected new . tradesmen required in

each year up to June 30, 1981, the firms surveyed were firstly asked

whether1

given a 100% completion of apprenticeships, they expected to

employ all current apprentices when these persons became qualified.

In the majority of cases the answer to this question was ' 1yes 1t Firms

were then asked whether given these additional tradesmen their work-

force 'vould be sufficient to meet any planned expansion, plus allow for

14 wastage of existing tradesmen at the normal rate for that firm. 1~tere

the response was either "less than sufficient" or "more than sufficient 11

-------13. Recall that from the individual firms point of view,"ne\v 11

tradesmen refers to both apprenticeship compl~tions and trades­men obtained from other firms. '"hereas from industry's point of view it refers only to apprenticesh~p completions.

14. Although tbe \vastage rate for the industry as a whole \vas found to be approximately 5Z per annum,the relevant rate for any given firm is the rate determined from its own past experience.

24.

an increasing or decreasing adjusting entry was made accordingly •. The

aggregate results of this process are given in Table 3j below. The

figures therein allow for wastage of the intial stock at an average

rate of 5% per annum.

TABLE 3.1 • Expected Ne'V7 Tradesmen Required in the

Year. A.E. D M.M. P.R. V.P. TOTAL

1978 10 8 79 28 16 141 1979 8 13 67 24 10 122 1980 8 11 68 24 13 124 1981 7 12 63 20 14 116

33 44 277 96 53 503

Three adjustments are required to the expected new tradesmen

figures (presented in Table 3j) in order to determine the expected

future demand for tradesmen. Firstly, they must be adjusted to an

industry wide basis. Secondly, they must be adjusted to account for

the demand for tradesmen already employed, and thirdly, the demand for

tradesmen already employed must be adjusted to allow for the expected

wastage of these tradesmen. The relevant formulae are

(3)

(4)

where ••• Dt is the expected demand for trades­men in a given trade in period t.

D is the demand for tradesmen t-1 in the given trade in period t-1.

w is the expected wastage rate

AT is the estimated number of new tradesmen required intthe given trade in period t

(L e., the number of tradesmen required to replace those tradesmen who leave the trade and also to meet any additional requirements) •

••• ASt is the additional number of new tradesmen required in a given trade in period t, in the firms surveyed, and

25 •.

TABLE 3k ~x~ected Future Demand for Tradesmen

.

TRADE Year Dt-1 I - w A I Expected s Future

Demand

Automotive 1978 78 .9625 10 1.1 86 Electrician 1979 86 .95 0 1.1 91

1980 91 .95 8 1.1 95 1981 95 .95 7 1.1 98

Diesel 1978 244 .9625 8 3.43 262 11echanic 1979 262 .95 13 3.43 293

1980 293 . .95 11 3.43 316 1981 316 .95 12 3.43 341

Motor 1978 859 .9625 79 1.68 960 --Mechanic 1979 960 .95 67 1.68 1025 1980 1025 .95 68 1.68 1088 1981 1088 .95 63 1.68 1139

Panel Beater 1978 276 .9625 28 1.59 310 1979 310 .95 24 1.59 333 1980 333 .95 24 1.59 355 1981 355 .95 20 1.59 369

Vehicle 1978 180 .9625 16 1.60 199 -----Painter 1979 199 .95 10 1.60 205 ----1980 205 .95 13 1.60 216 1981 216 .95 14 1.60 228

-

...

26.

I is the inverse ratio of trade coverage.

In the case of expected demand in 1978 it is necessary to make

an additional adjustnent, namely the conversion of the expected yearly

wastage rate of 5% to the appropriate nine monthly rate of 3.75%. No

adjustment is required to the new tradesmen required figures as this

was explicitly adjusted when conducting the survey.

Evaluation of the future conditions

In order to maintain the status quo at an expected wastage rate

of five per cent per annum four automotive electrician, twelve diesel

mechanic, forty-three motor mechanic~ thirteen panel beater, and nine

vehicle painter apprentices must complete their time each year. hTien

compared with the expected apprenticeship completion figures in Table

3h. it appears that these targets will be fairly easily met over the

next four years. Provided the e.xpost wastage rate does not rise above

ten percent none of these trades should be seriously threatened from

a "status quo" point of view. However, if we restate expected apprent-

ice intake figures (Table 31) on an industry basis (Table 3rn) and pro-

ject apprenticeship completions between 1981-82 and 1984-85 (Table 3n)

the expected situation over this period is nowhere near as healthy.

An expost wastage rate of 9% per annum would lead to reductions in the

stock of quali.fied motor mechanlcs, panel beaters and vehicle painters.

TABLE 31. Intake of

1978 1979 1980 1981 TOTAL

Automotive Electrician 6 9 10 6 31 Diesel Mechanic 6 10 10 9 35 :Hotor Mechanic 53 56 59 60 228 Panel Beater 15 19 20 16 70 Vehicle Painter 10 11 14 15 50

90 105 113 106 414 --·-~· ----

27.

TABLE 3m. Intake of

1978 1979 1980 1981 TOTAL -Automotive Electrician 7 10 11 1 35 Diesel Nechanic 21 34 34 31 120 Motor Nechanic 89 94 99 101 383 Panel Beater 24 30 32 25 111 Vehicle Painter 16 18 22 24 80

157 186 198 188 729

TABLE Ex.eected Apprenticeship Completi~

1983-84 1984-85 TOTAL ---Automotive Electrician 6 9 9 6 30 Diesel Mechanic 19 30 30 28 107 Motor Mechanic 71 75 79 81 306 Panel Beater 17 21 23 18 79 Vehicle Painter 11 13 15 17 56

124 148 156 150 578

As stated earlier the sta.tus quo approach is extremely limited

in its applicability because of the very naive (i.e., no change) assump-

tion upon which it is based. Also, in the above

fact be maintained is the present undersupply situation. The status

quo estimate.s were also more sensitive to changes in the wastage rate

or the init:f.al stock of tradesmen, than the expected demand and supply

estimates. discussed below. They did however serve their intended pur-

pose of presenting the minimum future requirements. In addition they

helped to show the problems which the potentially low apprentice intake

over the next four years,if re~li \>:auld cause.

The expected future demand and supply estimates presented in

Tables 3k and Ji respectively show how the existing excess demand

28.

for tradesmen will worsen rather than improve over the next four years.

This is despite the fact that the demand estimates obtained through

the survey appear conservative9 with few firms contemplating expansion.

The worst affected trades are those of motor mechanic, panel

beater and vehicle pninter where the shortages of tradesmen over the

next four years are expected to increase by 76~ 44 and 20 respectively. J

The automotive electrician category appears least affected showing

only a slight deter:f.oration over the period. The magnitude of the

problem faced by the panel beating and ~ehicle painting trades can be

more fully appreciated if expected apprenticeship completions between

1981-82 and 1984-85 are considered. Assuming a five percent wastage

rate, but no increase in demand, these trades would still have shortages

of 25 and 7 respectively at June 30, 1985.

CHAPTER 4.

AN EXAMINATION OF THE RESULTS. THE LIMITATIONS TliEREe1 AND SUGGESTIONS

FOR FURTHER STUDY.

4.1 Limitations in the data and methodology

29.

As already noted the major problem encountered in the prepara-

tion of this dissertation was the non-existence of much of the requir-

ed statistical data. In addition what was available tended to be frag-

mented and generally of poor quality. Although not an initial aim of

this dissertation, the compilation of an improved stock of data on

the automotive industry became a vital pre-requisite for any subsequent

analysis.

To the extent that the survey undertaken may not be represent-

ative of the employment of tradesmen in the five trades covered, the

data compiled and the analysis based thereon must suffer accordingly.

A computer run undertaken by the Research Branch of the Education

Department, and based on 1974 figures, suggested that 66.8% of appren-

tice employers in the automotive industry employed five or less

apprentices, 12.4% employed six to ten apprentices, 1.4% employed

eleven to twenty apprentices and 19.4% employed twenty one or more

apprentices.

When only those firms who employed_ apprentices \vere considered

the survey data suggested that 73.2% of employers in the automotive

industry employed five or less apprentices, 11.3% employed six to ten

apprentices, 7.0% employed eleven to twenty apprentices and 8.5%

eLJ.ployed tv.'ent:' one or more apprentices. This result suggests that

(1) the sample is unbiased (at least vlith respect to its coverage of

30.

firms who employ apprentices), and

(2) that the assertion made about the change in the industrial

structure, towards smaller firms, is correct.

Despite this, the projected industry results for diesel mechan-

ics and motor mechanics may still be biased, In the case of diesel

mechanics a bias may have arisen due to the lack of a generally accept-

ed meaning the term in industry. The results in this category may

therefore be either over or under-stated, the direction of the error

being most probably an over-statement but there is no way of being sure.

In the case of motor mechanics the sample based estimate of the number

of tradesmen employed may be understated. An under-statement in this

trade could have arisen because in an attempt to obtain a high cover-

age of apprentice employers the survey was biased away from the multi-

tude of service-stations and backyard operators. An increased cover-

age of service-stations in any future survey would be possible although

very time consuming. The problem of tracing backyard operators would

again result in their exclusion. From a statistical point of view

this may not be a major problem because most of these persons are either

unqualified or, if qualified, hold down a regular job as well. From

an industry point of view tradesmen working for themselves part-time

and unqual:i.fied substitutes do however present a serious problem. It

is ironical that tradesmen endeavouring to improve their economic lot 11 !!

by working at home after hours may, in the aggregate, be damaging the l industry from '.vhicli they obtain the. security of full-time employment. \

Although this survey may be biased in favour of firms 1.11ho employ

apprentices such a bias is justifiable if one adopts the view that the

government should help those who do most to help themselves. As a

value judgement it appears inequitous that the costs associated with

the training of apprentices should be borne by one segment of the

industry when it is the industry as a whole, and indeed society itself,

which benefits most through their training.

A further limitation in the approach adopted involves the

heavy use of what may be described as "historically based ratio analysis".

The defence of this approach is that in applying economic techniques

to a practical problem, it is necessary to make the best use of the

information available. If the information available does not readily

lend itself to econometric modelling then an alternative approach must

be found. Such has been the case in this study.

4.2. A discussion of the undersupplX problem based on the survey data.

The determinants of the demand for tradesmen

The factors believed to determine the employment opportuntties

for tradesmen were found to vary both between firms and also bet~veen

trades. However, a general belief did exist that work volume, 15 quality

of the tradesman himself and the lack of incentive for business to

expand ,,;ere the major limiting factors.

Work volume was the most oft cited determinant, and contrary to

expectations wage costs were not given as the major factor determining

work volume. There is a general belief in industry that the good trades-

man is underpaid in relation to his skill, and also a general dissatis-

faction with the union stance whereby it is virtually impossible to

16 discriminate betVJeen a good and a bad tradesman. Over award payments

15. "Hark volume" refers to the amount of retail and warranty work available for firms in the industry. As the volume of warranty •vork is fairly constant • "work volume" varies directly ~.;ith the volume of retail work available.

16. This is not the only area of ~iscontent as the recent press statements,_ concerning the unionization of: apprenti.ces1 indfcate.

for one must be matched by over award payments for all.

The problem with respect to work volume lies in the lack of

protection for tradesmen and reputable firms who are being prostituted

from outside the industry. The typical comment m.;r.de was that

"it is illegal to do your own plumbing or wire the electrical system on your home and yet anyone can work on their own, or someone else's car, thus creating a far greater risk of injury or death."

The fact that the large firms must undertake considerable capital expend­

iture in order to provide a quality of service and the capacity to do

major repairs is overlooked by the average motorist who patronises his

local service-station or does the job himself when a regular service

due. A survey conducted by a major franchised dealer of 100 "regu-

lar" customers who had not been in for a service for two or more

months revealed that although customers had been satisfied with the

quality of service given, while their car was under warranty, they '"ere

now taking the car to the local service statioq because it was more

.convenient and cheaper to do so. These customers were quick to add

that they would not hesitate to bring the car back if anything major

went \..rrong.

The problem, restated, is how to reconcile quality and capacity

of service with the final labour rate charged per hour. The mark up

on prime labour cost17

of between 240% and 350% may be justifiable in

terms of overhead costs and the quality of the services provided but

how can the consuming public be made to see this ?

17.

The panel beating and vehicle painting trades are faced with

. weeklx wage pai~--Prime labour cost per hour equals b f. fd' with no allm;:mce being made for holidayuWa~:; Eo1Ig~Sr 8 1'6~~l~r;s, payroll tax, idle ( "shop") time, '-'Orkers' compensation, overalls, and other items provided, supervisors and clerical staff's wages.

33.

an additional problem, namely Insurance Company dominance of the

industry whereby a standard rate of $10 per hour is allowed on all

18 insurance claim work. Further, the lowest of three quotes system

works against the larger and more reputable firms, who maintain that

it is inconsistent of the Insurance Companies to police price without

also policing quality. The larger body..;rorks thus tend to be left \vith

the larger smash rep.3.irs, which the smaller concerns do not have the

equipment or expertise to handle,while the smaller bodyworks and back-

yard operators take the pick of the fast turnover j in the 0-$500

range. As a direct result of this work allocation the larger bodyworks

are often faced with serious liquidity problems. This is due to sev-

eral months delay on the arrival of parts, several months work when

the parts do arrive and then an average delay of three months between

completion of the job and final settlement by the Insurance Company.

The system is ironical in that the customer, who the Insurance Companies

are endeavouring to protect, is in most cases the loser. He suffers

both from the point of view of the time taken before handing his car

over to a bod)'\vorks for repair and also from the quality of the job

19 finally done.

The automotive electrician is perhaps the least affected trades-

man from the point of vie\v of "non qualified substitutes". This is

because he is providing a necessary specialist service ,,rhich cannot

easily be mastered. The greater fluctuatians in work volume in this

trade severely limit the size of operations. This is also the case

18. This represents a markup on prirne labour cost of approximately 150~~ for firms paying the minimum m.;rard \vaget and a markup of between 80 and 120% for mc•s t firms in the industry.

19. Most bodyworks stated (\vith regret) that all too often the quality of a job was determined by the margin in the quote.

in the panel beating and vehicle painting trades.

The quality and initiative of the individual tradesman was often

cited as the major factor determining his employment prospects. As

stated earlier the tradesman of today is relatively underpaid hence

many tradesmen apply themselves w:l..th

20 ing to accept responsibility.

dedication and are less will-

The final major limiting factor was seen as being the lack of

incentive for business to take risks, expand and thus offer additional

employment. The expected value of the discounted future cash flows

is not sufficient to compensate for the increased variability of the

net earning stream, or in the words of the respondents: "What we get

after everyone else takes their share is not enough to make it worth-

while". This problem is particularly worrying in an economy like

Tasmania which is built on private ownership and small business, Even

most of the large franchised dealerships are privately owned family

concerns. A problem t..rhich may eventuate on the death;~or retirement,

of the present owner-managers,is the closing dotm or sale of these

firms because the relatives who assume control do not regard the re-

turn which they offer as being sufficient. If this happens then the

stability of employment in the industry will be adversely affected.

The appropriate solution to the insufficient rate of return problem

appears to require a review of the present taxation system, including

the adop~ion of current value accounting for taxation purposes1 in order

to ensure that only real profits are taxed.

The determinants of the demand for ices

A significant finding of the survey -...ms that firms in general

20. Although having obvious economic connotations •dth respect to the qual of the workforce, this is perhaps best regarded as a social problem and treated accordingly.

35.

do not regard ~pprentices as being in any way substitutes for trades-

men, Apart from the occasional comment that 11a good apprentice is

better than a bad tradesman", apprentices tend to be regarded as a

necessary evil; necessary in that they represent the future stock of

tradesmen and an evil in that they are more a burden than an asset esp-

21 ecially in the early years of training. ·Apart from the costs associ-

ated directly with the apprentice, there is the problem of having to

provide almost constant supervision of his work by a qualified trades-

man, The cost to the firm (both i.n the form of the tradesman's wages

and also earnings foregone) of providing this supervision is perhaps

the biggest single limiting factor on apprentice intake. If the trend

away from larger firms continues and the smaller firms continue to find

it unprofitable to employ apprentices, then the under supply of trades-

men which exists at present ·will be aggravated, rather than corrected,

in the future. The expected future intake of apprentices (Table 3m.)

verifies the concern sho\VO by the Apprenticeship Commission and the

technical colleges,who expect 1978 to be a very bad year for prospective

apprentices. A low expected intake in 1977 was averted tvhen a number

of smaller employers ,,rho had never previously taken on apprentices \vere

enticed to do so by (1) the state government saying that it would only

give contracts to those employers who employed apprentices, and

(2) the increased level of assistance obtainable

through the CoDJmonwealth Rebate for Apprentice Full-time Train:Lng (CRAFT)

and National Emplo~ncnt and Training (NEAT) schemes,

Apart from the above mentioned problems of the amount of

2L Although varying betl.;reen apprentices and firms, apprentice vehicle painters begin to show a return by the end of first year, apprentice automotive electricians midway through second year, apprentice panel beaters by the end of second year and apprentice diesel and motor mechanics midway through third year.

36.

supervision required and the failure to "pay their way" in the early

years of training apprentices are generally worse off than tradesmen

22 because they represent the first buffer in times of economic hardship.

Their employability :ts thus squeezed from both below and above. From

below they meet increased competition from non-apprenticed youth who

cost less to employ, are available for a full five days per week

and may be shifted from one job to another within the firms as workload

requires without offending apprenticeship or union authorities. From

above, apprentices meet increased competition from tradesmen themself.

m1en the wage differential between a third year apprentice and fully

qualified tradesman is only $35 to $40 per week, it is understandable

why many firms prefer to employ the tradesman.

As was the case \.rith respect to tradesmen, quality and attitude

of the individual play an extremely important role. Just as the good

tradesman will always find work)so too will the good apprentice. In-

dustry's major concern in this regard is that the number of suitable

applicants has declined in proportion to the total number of persons

seeking apprenticeships. It is indeed an indictment of the present

education system when the service managers of major franchise dealer-

ships can, with some justification, say that "many school certificates

23 are not worth the paper they are printed on". The reaction of the

franchised dealers to this situation resulted in their collective

22. David Farber argues that policies which strengthen the apprentice­ship systePl in do-vmturns <·Jill pay signif:tcant dividends to the economy as a whole, and the individuals concerned,in latter years. The problem involves convincing industry to look beyond the present. Farber, D. "Apprenticeship in a Changing Economy". Apprentice­sln:p Nez.Js, Number 40. September 197 5, pp. 126-129.

23. Although distasteful this statement is not without some substant­iating evidence. Refer: i-.1e.lch, P., ttA Report on the Standard of Mathematics of Stage 1 Trade Apprentices on entry to the Hobart Technical College. Unpublish~d Report, Hobart Technical College, 1975.

37.

screening of 180 applicants for 30 apprenticeship vacancies in the

motor trade in Hobart last year. The system proved successful and has

been retained for 1977-78 with the Commonwealth Employment Service

24 doing the screening on their behalf. A similar system has also been

adopted by franchised dealers in the Launceston area.

five years ago.

On the question of assessing the employment prospects for trades-

~

men and apprentices today, vis a vis five years ago, opinion was evenly

divided with respect to tradesmen and substantially in agreement with

respect to apprentices. Twenty-seven respondents said that it was now

easier for tradesmf!n to secure employment, twenty-nine said it was now

harder, twenty-one thought that it was about the same, and four did not

know, Sixty-five respondents said that it was now harder for a person

to secure an apprenticeship, eleven said it was about the same, one

said it was now easier and four did not know, Those respondents anS\-.'er- 1

ing "harder" and "easier" for tradesmen were not necessarily giving in-

consistent ans,.,ers v1hen their reasoning in each case is examined. Those

who answered "harder" did so"'in many cases,based on their knowledge of

how the larger firms have been forced to cut back on their employment

of tradesmen in the past five years. Those who answered "easier", did

so in the belief that a shortage of good tradesmen still exists and

consequently, regardless of the size of the employing firm, a good

tradesman has little trouble in securing employment.

The best job prospects for tradesmen today appear to be in

specialist areas such as automatic transmission servicing, emission

control testing and tuning, brake relining, wheel aligning and working

24. Refer th<; advertisement published in The Mercury_, 29.10.77 and 5 .11. 77 vlhich is reproduced in Appendix E.

38.

on imported vehicles; these areas being less affected by any deterior­

ation i.n general economic conditions, or competition from non quali­

fied substitutes. The prospects for internal advancement to super­

visory or lower management positions are also better now,with many

positions at this level requiring trade knowledge. As already stated

the biggest potential threat comes from the mushrooming of backyard and

small operations, many of \vhom do not employ qualified tradesmen. At

present however these establishments are not seriouslyaffecting the

employment of tradesmen in the aggregate. They are in fact helping to

moderate the excess demand for tradesmen. The recent increase in the

number of smaller firms would have to be accepted as an efficient,

market based, change if (1) the quality of service which they provided

was not in doubt,

(2) they were willing and able to do larger

jobs as well as smaller ones, and,

(3) they were as capable of training apprentices

as the larger firms whose survival they threaten.

Leaving the questions of quality and capacity of service aside,

the trend towards smaller firms is of questionable benefit because

of its affect on the future supply of tradesmen (i.e., current and

prospective apprentices). Less work for the larger firms means that

they cutback on their employment of tradesmen and apprentices; the

reduction in apprentices being more than proportionate to the reduction

in their workload. The displaced tradesmen are readily re-employed

with smaller firms who are not capable, or willing, to bear the appren-

tice adjustment as well.

The high levels of youth unemployment in general further hampers

the genuine attempts to obtain an apprenticeship. Many young people

39.

now offer themselves for apprenticeships in trades in which they have

little or no interest. They do so merely in an attempt to obtain ern-

ployrncnt. . 25

This "satisHcing policy" on behalf of job applicants is

frustrating to employers who are looking to train their future trades-

men. It also partly explains industry comments of

- "Their attitude is no\v worse and they are more careless. 11

- "They lack discipline."

- "Their motivation is low and they show no interest in their schooling.•

- "They may be little angels during their three month probation period but once they know you have got them for four years •.• "

-11Most of them have no intention to stay in the trade and let

you know it."

-· "It 1 s the parents, the schooling, and the welfare state that's to blame. Apprentices nowadays have no incentive to make a go of a job."

Firms realize that in the end they only have themselves to blame if

they select an apprentice \\lho does not come up to expectations. They

therefore adopt a "once bitten twice shy" attitude, which when combined

with the high direct and indirect costs of training an apprentice and

the deterioration in the competitive position of the larger firms,

explains the low expected apprentice intake figures.

The effectiveness of government initiatives.

When asked, "to \vhat extent is your employment of apprentices

influenced by the generosity or othen.rise of government allo\Vances and

incentives?" only 8 firms ansHered that it had much effect. A further

27 firms sold that it was a help, 41 firms said that it had absolutely

no effect at all and the remaining 5 firms were either undecided or did

25. There is evidence of many young people conforming to parential and societal pressure to "have a go" and get a job; any job. Hany parents rep,ard trades as being something \,rhich you can fall back on if times get hard. They therefore push their children into this area, not as a preferred, or intended career, rather as a safeguard for the future.

40.

not wish to comment. Of the 41 firms who said that it had absolutely

no effect at all, 3 firms further stated that they did not even claim.

Typical comments made were that:

-11 It is company policy (i.e., moral rather than economic grounds) to continue to employ apprentices. 11

- "It is no good the government paying part of the aflprentice's wages if there is no work available to pay the other part."

- "It costs $3,00J plus to employ a first year apprentice, therefore a rebate of $11/day for each day of technical training is but a drop in the ocean."

- "The trouble you have to go to (i.e., too much papen1ork and too long a delay in receiving payment) makes it hardly worthwhile claiming."

The policy implication of the above finding is to question

seriously the efficacy of the traditional subsidy approach. Firms were

not reticent in offering suggestions for improvement and some of the

more feasible alternatives are discussed in Chapter 5.

4.3. SugB.estions for Further .studz

At the risk of pre-empting the conclusions and recommendations

of this study, further research is required into the service side of

the automotive industry itself. In particular (1) The effect which

the smalleY' firms and backya:t'd operators a:r>e having on the industry.

Can the 240-350% markup on prime labour cost adopted by the larger firms

be justified in terms of superior quality, and capacity of service?

If so, how can the general public be made to accept this? Should

they have to accept it?

(2) The effect tJhich Insurance Companies are having on the panel

beating and vehicle painting side of the industry. Is the present

system of policing price, and not quality, an efficient and equitable

allocator of work volume?

41.

(3) The future of the app:r•enticeship system as it exists at

preeent. If the average size of firms in the industry, and hence their

ability and willingness to employ apprentices, continues to decrease

will it be necessary for the government to intervene and provide full

time training for the first two years of the apprenticeship, at which

time firms could select from semi-trained "apprentj.cesu? Hould such

a scheme succeed, or would it meet a similar fate to initiatives?

Should the government accept responsibility for implementing and ad­

ministering such a scheme or should the industry be left to regulate

itself?

(4) An examination of the foundations on which payroll tax is

based~ and an assessment of the present system in relation to the

current high levels of unemployment in the economy as a whole.

Would the abolition of payroll tax and the assod.ated drop in state

government revenue be more than offset by any decrease in the total

payout of social service benefits? so, how could the Commonwealth

cost saving be passed on to the state \vhich suffers the loss of revenue?

Do sufficient moral grounds exist for the abolition, or restructuring 1

of payroll tax? andt

(5) A oost benefit study of the feasibility of introducing a foT'171

of compu~sory vehicle roadzuorthiness testing. Would such a scheme enable

quality as well as price to be

place?

effectively in the market

42.

CHAPTER 5.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOH11ENDATIONS

5.1 A Note on Problem Solving

As any good tradesman will verify the only satisfactory way to

solve a problem is to correctly diagnose what component is actually

causing the problem and replace or repair the part concerned. The over­

hauling of the motor of a car which will not start is of little value

if it were only the battery which required attention, or if the car

had run out of petrol. Likev1ise the process of adding a pint of oil to

the car's engine every second day is at best a short term ~olution

which momentarily forestalls the inevitable major repairs. In each

case what is required is the application of previously acquired skills

to go beyond the surface manifestations of the problem to analyse the

situation, diagnose the actual cause, list and evaluate the alternative

corrective measures and then act accordingly, being prepared to repeat

the process should the steps taken fail to satisfactorily resolve the

problem.

The first implication of the above to the topic in hand is the

need to go beyond the actual shortage of tradesmen and the deficient

demand for apprentices in order to get to the core of the problem and

devise some way of breaking the circularity which perpetuates the

under- supply,

The pertinent facts, and the reasons for the expected future

shortage of tradesmen are:

(1) Due to relatively low ,.,;rages and poor working conditions a shortage

of tradesmen in the automotive industry has existed for some time.

43.

(2) Past attempts to correct this imbalance have been largely un-

successful because they have been made on an individual firm, rather

than an industry,basis. There is now a general recognition, at least

among the larger finns, that it is not a satisfactory long run policy

to ensure that your present workforce is sufficient regardless of how

other firms are situated. Their shortage today may well be yours

tomorrow.

(3) The possible ways of averting any future shortage of tradesmen

involve (a) increasing the wages and improving the working conditions

within the industry, thus encouraging more tradesmen to stay in their

26 trade (i.e,, decrease the wastage rate).

(b) increasing the apprentice intake, or

(c) r:ecruiting tradesmen directly from outside Tasmania.

{4) Methods (a) and (c) have been used in the past with only limited

27 success, and method (b) has not been implemented on the required

industry wide basis. Apprentice intake in every trade covered in this

study has been down in each year since the peak of 1973-74. This has

not been due to a lack of apprenticeship applicants, although the

quality of those coming forward has been of concern.

(5) The willingness and ability of firms to tal<.e on apprentices are

most closely linked with two factors~ namely the size of the firm and

the volume of work available. In both cases it is a direct relationship.

26. Tradesmen exhibit BSJmmetrical behaviour in that the incentive required to make them stay in their trade is far less than the incentive required to entice them back once they have left.

27. Past attempts at recruiting tradesmen from outside Tasmania have been largely unsuccessful. Apart from the high costs involved, the benefits obtained are extremely uncertain since (1) the ability of the tradesmen concerned is not knm.m beforehand t (2) he may be unfamiliar vlith Australian cars and therefore require retrain­ing and (3) he may accept the job only to leave six months later, either to return horne or take up em?loyment outside of the trade.

'•4. (6) Apprentices are generally regarded as an inferior Aource of

labour and therefore not close substitutes for trade~men. Hence their

employment opportunities in times of economic downturns are more

adversely affected.

(7) Over the past five years wage and other costs have increased sub~

stantially in the automotive industry as in all se.ctions of the economy.

(8) The largest firms in the industry, and consequently those with

the highest overheads, have been most seriously affected. During the

1960's these firms found it possible to be economically viable with a

markup of between 150 and 200% on prime labour cost. Today the required

markup varies between 240 and 350%.

(9) The consumer is thus faced wi.th a labour rate which he feels to

be excessive given the existence of cheaper alternatives such as small

firms and service stations, backyard operators and finally the option

of doing the job himself.

(10) The inability of the larger firms to justify to the general

public the labour rate differential with which they are faced1 has re­

sulted in a sub~tantial influx of small and backyard operators into

the industry. The action of Insurance Companies, through the "lm·Jest

of three quotest! policy and the flat rate of $10 per hour on insurance

work, has also assisted in the trend away from larger firms.

(11) It has been argued that th:ls structural adjustment is justifiable

in terms of the increased efficiency at which the larger firms have

been forced to operate. This argument implicitly assumes that quality

and capacity of service have not suffered. It also fails to reco3nise

the inability of the smaller firms to train the required num0er of

app·rentices, thus perpetuating the present under supply of tradesmen.

The improvement of one problem is of little benefit if another problem

1~5.

of greater magnitude has either been created or made worse. It is

the overall welfare gain or loss which is most relevant from society's

point of view. The survey results and the expected demand and supply

of tradesmen calculations thus verify the contention that major pro-

blems exist on the service side of the automotive industry.

5.3 The Alternatives

What is desired, is a situation in which the demand for and

supply of tradesmen is in balance. That is, where apprenticeship com­

pletions plus any exogenous inputs of tradesmen are sufficient to meet

the wastage of the existing s~ock plus any additional future require­

ments. Given the initial starting point of excess demand for tradesmen

and a deficient demand for apprentices, and given the limited success

of past attempts to increase the stock of tradesmen either directly

through immigration or indirectly through a lower wastage rate, the

long run solution appears to revolve around how best to obtain an in­

crease in the number of persons being trained. Although it has shown

itself to be as efficient as government on most occasions 1 private

industry has also shmm itself to be fairly mercenary with respect to

areas such as education which offer only uncertain returns,after long

gestation periods 5involving high outlays. For this reason the initi­

atives in apprentice training are best left to government,who over time

have developed the most qualified body of persons to deal with such

problems. The alternatives available fall into three main categories:

(1) Those which police quality as well as price,and thus attempt

to remove the competitive disadvantage faced by the larger, apprentice

employing firms in the industry.

(2) Those which aim to stimulate the employment of apprentfces in

46.

general irres~ective of the size, nature or industry of the employing

finn, and

(3) The government may decide to take initiatives directly and accept

responsibility either for part or all of apprentic:e training.

Under the first category comes the suggestion of compulsory

licensing of both workshop and tradesmen. The acl·.rocates of this pro­

posal say that it would effectively mean that only qualified tradesmen

could legally work on vehicles. Also the workshops used would have to

conform to certain safety standards and contain the required level of

specialist equipment necessary to perform their intended use. The logic

behind this proposal is that it would work in favour of the larger, more

reputable firms who would be able to expand to their former size and

thus increase the industry's ability to employ app:~entices,

Although having many obvious advantages such a scheme would be

costly and unpopular to administer, and may be excessively hard on

certain smaller firms in the industry. Such firms may be providing a

useful and necessary role despite their failure to employ apprentices,

The local service station, for example, employing one or two qualified

mechanics or experienced lube assistants on routine service ''ork, could

well argue that it is performing such a function. Since the nature of

this work does not require a high capital outlay in oruer to provide a

high quality of service a lmver markup on prime labour cost is required.

This sav1.ng may be passed on to the consumer via a lmver labour rate

charged per hour. It must be realized that the operative assumptions

in this case consist of the employment of qualified or experienced

persons on routine service "rork, with no loss of quality. If the sam~

firm \Jere offering to perfonn gearbox and engine overhuals \,rithout the

re1uired specialist equipment then the situation would be quite

47.

different. TM.s would also be the case given appropriate equipment,

but no qualified or experienced persons to use it.

The unacceptability of such a scheme to the "home handyman come

motor vehicle tradesman" also presents a serious p:::-actical problem.

In order to ensure his own safety as well as that of his passengers

and other road users, it may be necessary to impinge upon his individ-

ual freedom, He unlikely to accept this, preferring instead to

test the policing of the scheme.

The alternative procedure of compulsory vehicle testing,

although costly and time consuming to administer, may well obtain the

same results in a less discriminatory manner. A cost-benefit study

to determine the most appropriate form of such a scheme would be the

first step required.

A multitude of options exi.st under the second category includ-

ing the present CRAFT and NEAT schemes. These may not necessarily be

the most effective methods and there is a general belief within the

automotive industry, as well as the community at large, that the present

taxation system is badly in need of review. The payroll tax system

for example, requires special attention i.n light of the current high

?8 levels of unemployment, especially of the young and unskilled.-

Di.scussions undertaken in the course of preparing this study

suggest that reforms in the taxation area \vould have a far greater

feet than the traditional subsidy approach. Although it is often

said that apprenticeship subsidy schemes are equivalent to payroll or

28. In the past firms in the automotive industry have employed many young and/or unskilled persons in nositions such as messensers, car clearners, odd jobs men and tea ladies. Today because of increased unionization, increased wages and the level of payroll tax, these positions are no longer available.

48.

other tax rebates this is clearly not the attitude taken by industry

itself. Although perhaps not rational,most firms exhibit asymmetrical

behaviour in that the taking away of $1.00 in taxation has a greater

psychological effect than the granting ofq$1.00 rebate on apprentice

wages. The problem which is always faced by the policy maker is how

to ensure that the stimulus adopted has the desired effect. According­

ly, it may be necessary to tie any taxation reform to increased employ­

ment. Alternatively, taxation reform could be undertaken on social

grounds, with any increase in employment regarded as a bonus.

Evidence collected during this study also suggests that the

continuity of any gi'Yen scheme may be more important than the actual

scheme itself. Continuity of government policy is a vital prerequis­

ite for industry's future planning.

The final category was for government initiatives which involve

its accepting direct responibility for part, or all, of apprentice

training. This cate2ory includes options like pre-apprenticeship

training and the possibility of full time courses being set up to train

apprentices to a suitable standard so that they could readily be inte­

grated into the smaller firT'lsJwho otherwise would be unable to employ

apprentices. These apprentices would then complete their training in

the normal way.

Despite the many advantages, which :nay in the long-run justify

its adoption, such a scheme ,.;rould present· serious administrative pro­

blems such a.s, Who would select those to be trained? On what basis?

In which trades? In vlhich geographic localities? and On what basis

would successful trainees be allocated to prospective employers?

Even if all the administrative problems Here overcome there would still

49.

remain the task of finding a suitable substitute in the training pro-

cess for actual work experience. As stated earlierj ther study is

required before such a scheme could be suggested for implementation.

5.4. Final Recommendations

On the basis of the material contained herein~ th:I.s report

recommends the following:

As the only party possessing the required expert:I.u~. and being

in a sufficiently detached position to obtain an overall view of the

problem, government must accept responsibility for ensur:I.ng that the

present shortage of skilled tradesmen in the automotive industry does

not continue in the future. To this end the following recommendations

are nmde

(1) The commissioning of a cost benefit study into the feasibi-

lity of compulsory vehicle roadworthiness testing~ with the view to

implementi.ng a sui.tahle form of testing, glven appropriate find:i.ngs.29

(2) That, as a matter of urgency. the present taxation system be

examined, with the view to substituting reforms in this area for

the present employment subsidy schemes. Reforms ln this area should

not necessarily be tied to any commitments of increased employment.

However, i.ncreased employment is a likely result.

(3) That the possibility of full time training of apprentices

destined for smaller firms in the industry be more fully examined.

29. A Legislative Council Select Committee has already advocated compulsory vehicle roadworthiness testing as a prerequisite for the Second Hand Notor Vehicle Bill.

APPENDIX A.

SURVEY OF Tll.E EXPECTED FUTURE

DEMAND FOR TRADESMEN IN THE

AUTOHOTIVE INDUSTRY.

50.

SURVEY OF THE EXPECTED FUTURE DEHAND FOR

TRADESMEN IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

NAME OF COMPANY.

DATE

QUESTIONS

First of a11 I would like to ask you some questions about your present labour force.

1. How many tradesmer. (excluding apprentices) do you employ at present?

2. How many apprentices do you currently employ?

3. Is your present labour force sufficient to meet your present requirements? If not, then state the additional number required.

CODING ONLY

ve Electricians Mechanics

tl.echani cs Beaters

cle Painters

52.

1st 2nd 3rd 4th

ve Electricians

Diesel Mechanics . Motor Mechanics Panel Beaters Vehicle Painters

Automotive Electricians

Diesel Mechanics Motor Meehan i cs Panel Beaters Vehicle Painters

Automotive Electricians

Diesel Mechanics Motor Mechanics

.Panel Beaters Vehicle Painters

.:t_r. _yr . .:t_r. _yr_.._ 3ota1

·--

.

YES/NO Additional

YES/NO

No.

Additional No. Res.£.:_

..

53 •.

QUES110NS CODING ONLY ----~ -3. continued c) Qther YES/NO Additional

No. Reqd

I

If we now look at your Expected future requir€ments.

~/E D/M M/M P/B V/P Total -4. How many additional tradesn~n 1978

(excluding apprentices) do you 1979 expect to employ in each year between 1978 and 1981? 1980

1981

-----5. What factors do you think have the

most influence on the employment opportunities for tradesmen in your indus try?

-6. How many first-year apprentices A/E D/M IVM P/B V/P .Total

do you expect to employ in each 1978 year between 1978 and 1981? 1979 -1980

1981 l '--

,

QUESTIONS

7. What factors do you think have the most influence on the employn~nt opportunities for apprentices in your indus try7

54.

CODING ONLY

·---·------------+-----·-----------------B. To \'that extent is your employment of

apprentices influenced by the generosity or otherwise of government allowances and incentives?

9. From your own experience do you think that the employment prospects for tradesmen and apprentices have changed over the past five years? If so, how and why'!

10. During the 1ast five years how many tradesmen have left your employ to take up positions outside of their trade qualifications? Do you consider this leakage significant?

--------

APPENDIX B.

CO:t'-lMENCEHENTS, TERMINATIONS AND

CO}~LETIONS DATA FOR APPRENTICES

IN THE FIVE TRADES COVERED n~ THIS

STUDY.

55.

AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRICIAN

,........_. STOCK AT Connnence- Termin- Comple- STOCK AT

JULY 1 ments at ions tions JUN_E ~~

1962-63 15 2 - 3 14

1963-61! 14 6 3 2 15

1964-65 15 8 2 6 15

1965-66 15 7 3 4 15

1966-67 15 3 - 1 17

1967-68 17 9 - 6 20

1968-69 20 8 l_ 7 20

1969-70 20 10 - 6 24

1970-71 24 7 4 3 24

1971-72 24 8 2 3 27

1972-73 27 12 2 11 26

1973-74 26 13 - 2 37

1974-75 37 12 3 7 39

1976-76 39 11 2 10 38

197.6-77 38 8 - 13 33

.......

FITTER (DIESEL)

1962-63 30 10 1 5 ~~

..i'f

1963-64 34 19 1 9 43

1964-65 43 18 - 7 54

1965-66 54 21 1 9 65

1966-67 65 24 - 12 77

1967-63 77 25 2 11 89

1968-69 89 25 1 23 90

1969-70 90 19 2 20 87

1970....;71 87 15 4 19 79

1971-72 79 27 2 25 79

1972-73 79 26 1 20 84

1973-74 84 49 5 14 114

1974-75 114 34 4 16 128

i 1975-76 128 42 8 2~ 135 I ; 1976-77 135 35 4 29 137 I ;

--~-- ~-··----\

57.

MOTOR

STOCK AT Commence-. Termin- · Comp1e- STOCK AT JULY 1 ments at ions tions June 30

1962-63 219 87 8 50 248

1963-64 248 93 9 55 277 1964-65 277 79 17 51 288

1965 66 288 99 11 62 314 1966-67 314 110 9 69 346

1967-68 346 87 9 85 339

1968-69 339 104 13 75 355

1969-70 355 104 .9 99 351

1970-71 351 104 21 74 360 1971-72 360 104 13 75 376

1972-73 376 117 12 81 400

1973-74 400 139 30 72 437

1974-75 437 116 25 87 441

1975-76 441 123 27 136 401

1976-77 401 131 25 86 /~21

PANEL BEATER.

r--· -1962-63 77 23 2 21 77

1963-64 77 25 5 11 86

1964-65 86 35 7 18 96

1965-66 96 29 8 17 100

1966-67 100 30 9 13 108

1967-68 108 28 11 14 111 1968-69 111 28 9 27 103

1969-70 103 25 . 8 19 101

1970-71 101 27 3 21 104

1971-72 104 19 3 17 103

1972-73 103 26 9 21 99

1973-74 99 39 10 19 109

1974-75 109 39 12 26 110

1975-76 110 39 14 20 115

1976-77 115 36 8 25 118

1962-63

1963-64

1964-65

1965-66

1966-67

1967-68

1968-69

1969-70

1970-71

1971-72

1972-73

1973-74

1974-75

STOCK AT JULY 1

35

31

51

47

50

60

60

62

65

63

64

61

81

VEHICLE PAINTER

Commence- Termin- Comple-ments ations tions

4

28

11

13

21

19

16

19

12

19

17

31

18

3

3

7

2

4

6

2

7

9

2

5

5

10

5

5

8

8

7

13

12

9

3

16

15

6

16

58.

STOCK AT JUNE 30

31

51

47

50

60

60

62

65

63

64

61

81

73

..._~_:_~-~-~-~_;_...__ _____ ~ __ : __ 1 ~: J,_1_~ __ ___.__~_: __ 1 ::j

APPENDIX C.

GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION OF ACTUAL AND

EXPECTED APPRENTICESHIP CmfPLETIONS

AGAINST COHPLETIONS ASSUMING A 100%

COMPLETION RATE.

59.

18

16

14

Number 12

of 10

Completions 8

6

4

2

50

Number 40

of 30

completions 20

10

60.

AUTOHOTIVE ELECTRICIAN

Completions assuming a 100%

completion rate

'-.... '

Actual and expected ' completions "

70- 71- 72- 73- 74- 75- 76- 77- 78- 79- 80-71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81

years

70- 71-71 72

72-· 73

FITTER

73- 74-74 75

75- 76-76 77

years

Completions assuming a 100%

Actual and Expected completions

77-78

78- 79-79 80

rate

80-81

180

160

140

Number 120

of 100

80 Completions

60

40

20

45

40

35

30

Number 25

20 of

15

Completions 10

5

----

70-71

70-71

71-72

71-72

61. MOTOR MECHANIC

72-73

72-73

73-74

74- 75- 76-75 76 77

Years

PANEL BEATER

/

Completions assuming a 100% completion

/\. / '

77- 78-78 79

--Actual and expected completions

79- 80-80 81

Completions assuming a 100~~

,_~l!lll~~·~on rate

,..------~ ... '

Actual and expected completions.

·----~,--

73- 74- 75-7lt 75 76

Years

76- 77- 78- 79- 80-77 78 79 80 81

36

32

28

24 Number

20 of

16 Completions

12

8

4

VEHICLE

62,

Completions assuming a 100% completion rate

Actual and expected completions

'-'-------------------·--------·-··--.......,. 70-

71 71-

72 72~ 73- 74-

73 74 75 75- 76-

76 77 Years

77- 78- 79- 80-78 79 80 81

APPENDIX D.

TOTAL TECHNICAL COLLEGE ENROLHENT

AS AT 30.9.1977

63.

64,

Total Technical College Enrolment as at 30.9.1977

Yr.l. Yr.2. Yr .3. ·TOTAL

Automotive Electrician 13

Fitter (Diesel) 45

Hotor Mechanic 158

Panel Beater 42

Vehicle Painter 20

278

11

38

143

32

14

238

8

25

108

43

13

197

The above information \vas obtained through a

written request to each of the f:lve technical

colleges at Hobart, Launceston, Devenport, Burnie

and Queenstovm.

32

lOB

409

117

47

713

65.

APPENDIX E.

HETHOD OF SELECTING APPRENTICES

El'viPLOYED BY SOUTHER.~ TAS!'1ANIAN

FRANCHISE DEALERS.

()

Prese~m:tion eJt the

wm be c~:mducied Grnsernmont Centre

on 19, 1977e

Application forms are available from ·your local Commomvea!th Employment

Service office.

GLErlOACHY Ef\STEFtN SHQHE lower Qround floor

168 Collins Sl, Cnr CotJ~er and Terry Streets

or contact John

Plume n 64n

SOUTHmN MOTORS t-TY lTD CiilT!NENTAl MOT0!1S PiY LTD CO··G?ERATIIJ!: MOlG::\S PTY LTD W t..n~1;1CI{ MOTORS PTY l TO S?ttr~co PilU::TIUE MOTORS

3D Percy Sl Be!leriva

MOTOHS PTY lTD P.ERFOR:i':ANCE AUTmt.ODiLES DONAUJ GORfll:lGE PTY L!tJ D. J. I',JOTOllS PTY I.TIJ MILES lt HICKEY PTY !.Til WEBSTHl i..TI.l TI!.FOft::l MOTORS PTY UD

f~nvrme seeking a mutor mechanic • ·~ l "1'1 "' mvw~m Sh HJr

THE HERCURY. 29.10.1977 and 5.11.1977

.66.

APPENDIX F.

LIST OF FIRMS I~~ERVIEWED

IN THE SURVEY.

67.

THE FOI.LOHING FIRMS AND THEIR SUBSIDIARIES

THE SURVEY OF THE

FUTURE DE~ND FOR TRADESMEN.

LYN ARCHER MOTORS •

AUTO ELECTRIC PTY.LTD.

AUTOMATIC TRANSMISSION SERVICE.

BARRACK AUTO ELECTRICS.

BAYSIDE BODYWORKS.

BESSANT NOTORS PTY.LTD.

MICHAEL BETTS HOTORS.

CALTEX SERVICE STATION, ULVERSTONE.

BRUCE CARSWELL & CO. PTY.LTD.

G. & A. CLARK.

CONTINENTAL MOTORS PTY.LTD.

CORBETTS BOD~vORKS.

CRA1-fil BROS.

CUSTOM CARS.

CUTI1BERTSON'S BODYWORKS.

DAVIES PTY.LTD.

DEPARTI1ENT OF MAIN ROADS.

D.J. MOTORS.

EASTERN SHORE AUTO ELECTRICS.

ELECTROLYTIC ZINC CO. OF A/ASIA LTD.

ELITE CR:\SH REPAIRS.

FIGG & GOYNE.

RAY GEARY MAZDA.

LIN GIGNEY AUTONOTIVE.

GLENORCHY BODY\.JORKS •

DONALD GORRINGE PTY.LTD.

l.ING GO\\IANS •

A.R. GRAY.

F. T. GUY LODYHORKS.

MAX HAYS AUTO ELECTRICS.

HAMILTONS BODYWORKS.

68.

HANCOCKS MOTORS.

D.L. HOLLIS MOTORS PTY.LTD.

G. N . HOPWOOD BODYWORK$ ,

HYDRO ELECTRIC COM."1ISSION.

INVERHAY BODYVJORKS .

KEVIN JACK MOTORS.

G.M. JACKSON PTY.LTD.

V. JOHNSON.

LANGDONS BODYWORKS .

LANGRIDGE BODY\.JORKS.

G.W. LEE BODYWORKS.

LEHMANS GARAGE ,

LE-MANS MOTORS .

DAVID LEWIS HOTORS PTY .LTD.

LUCAS INDUSTRIES AUST. LTD.

A.V. HcCUINNESS.

McPHERSONS BODYHORKS.

METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT TRUST.

MILES & HICKEY AUTOS PTY.LTD.

MILTS AUTO ELECTRICAL SERVICES.

M.M. AUTOS PTY.LTD.

MODEll~ CARS PTY.LTD.

HOONAH BODYWORKS.

MORSE AUTO ELECTRICAL.

}fOTORS PTY • LTD •

MURFETTS AUTO ELECTRICAL SERVICE.

NORTHERN MOTORS DATSUN.

NORTHSIDE CAR ELECTRICS.

NORTHSIDE PANELS.

PERFORMANCE AUTOMOBILES

PRESTIGE MOTORS.

REEMAN & MANNING PTY.LTD.

REPCO AUTO PARTS (TAS.).

W.A. RICHARDS & CO. PTY.LTD.

SOUTHERN SERVICE PTY.LTD.

SPEEDO ELECTRICS.

SPRINGFIELD GARAGE.

69.

DAVID STEWART AUTOS.

TASMANIAN POLICE FORCE.

TERMI~~S BODYWORKS.

TILLEYS EXJ~UST CENTRE.

TILFORD MOTORS PTY.LTD.

WARWICK MOTORS.

WATERERS BODYHORKS.

VON-BIBI\A l10TORS PTY. LTD.

WEBSTER MACHINERY PTY.LTD.

TONY WELLS BODYWORKS.

WESTEND BODYWORKS. IV'\ f1 R. k C 00 K C.~ R S •

C.O -OPEIUiTIV£ tnoTDR5 PT'I.LTO.

70.

APPENDIX G.

LIST OF PERSONS INTERVIEWED, AND

PERSONS PROVIDING DIRECT ASSISTANCE

IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS STUDY.

< 71.

WERE PREPAR-

ATION OF TillS STUDY.

(1) AJ,PRENTICESHIP Co:!'fr1ISSION OF TAS}l.Pu'HA.

- l1r. F.D. Hestwood, President

-Mr. G.J. Williams, Secretary

(2) AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS.

- Mr. C. Johnson

(3) COM.l10NHEALT!l DEPARTMENT OF EHPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS.

. n..

- Mr. M. Hc\.Jatt, Assistant Director~ }~npower Research and Information.

- Mr. B. Anstice-Rafferty

- Mr. D. Castle

- :Hr. I. Hay

(4) CONMO.NWEALTH REBATE FOR APPRENTICE FULL-TIME TRAINING (CRAFT)

- Hr. G. Newbold

(5) EDUCATION DEPARTNENT OF TASHANIA, RESEARCH BRANCH.

- Mrs. H. Hocking

- Miss S. Miller

(6) FRANCHISED DEALERS ASSOCIATION.

- Hr. R. Toulmin, President, Southern Tasmania.

- Hr. H. \-Jatts, President, Northern Tasmania.

(7) HOBART TECHNICAL COLLEGE.

- Mr. A. Eyles,

- Hr. T. Ropert

Head of Trades. Head of Beating.

-----------

the School of Aut:omotl.vr::

the School of P.:~,1cl

73.

SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY

74.

Apprenticeship Commission of Tasmania Annual Reports. 1967 to 1976. Government Printer, Tasmania.

"Apprenticeship in Tasmania". Booklet produced by the Apprenticeship Conunission of Tasmania. Government Printer, Tasmania.

Bezdek. R.H., "The State of the Art - Long Range Economic and Hanpower Forecasting", Long Range PZ.anning, Volume 8, Numher 1, February 1975, Pages 31-42.

Census 71, 1971, Census of Population and Housing, Bureau of Census and Statistics, Australia.

"Employment Prospects by Industry and Occupation", Department of Employment and Industrial Relations. Australian Government Printing Service, Canberra, July 1977.

'1Employment Prospects by Occupation11

, Manpower Research and Information Branch, Department of Employment and Industrial Relations, Uobart, June 1977.

Farber, D., "Apprenticeship in a Changing Economy", Apprent-iaesh'l:p NeZJs .• Number 40, September 1975, Pages 126-129.

"Introducing CR.I\.FT - Commonwealth Rebate for Apprentice Full-Time Training. 11 Booklet produced by the Department of Employment and Industrial Relaticns, Canberra, 1976.

NcKenzie, D., "Apprenticeship- An A"Uing System." The Australian Technical. Teacher, Volume 5, Number 2, 1973, Pages 15-16.

Holhuysen, P.C., "Australian Forecasting of Demand for Scientists and Engineers", Jourrn.at of IndustPiaZ Retations, VoL 6, July 1964.

Molhuysen, P.C., "The Supply of Scientific Skill in Australia", 1965, N.Ec. Thesis, University of Adelaide.

Oppenheim, N.N., Questionnaire Design and Attitude Measurement. Heinenman, London, 1968.

"Report of the Fact Finding Committee on the Apprenticeship System in the Building Trade", vlestern Australian Government Printer, Harch 1962.

lveiermair, K., "A Note on Nanpower Forecasting", Industrial. ReZ.ations, Vol,30, No.2, 1971, Pages 228-238.

Welch, P. • "A Report on the Standard of ~fathematics of Stage 1 Trade Apprentices on entry to the Hobart Technical College", Unpublished Report, Hobart Technical College 1975.

7 5.

Yeoland. S.A., "A Synopsis on Tasmanir:m Hotor Mechanic Apprentices and Tradesmen. 11 Honours dissertation, University of Tasmania, November 19.15.