The Culture War?

Questions for today

• Are we a polarized electorate?

• Arguments for the existence of polarization?

• Arguments against the existence of polarization?

What does polarization mean?

Ideology

• What do liberals believe?

• What do conservatives believe?

Are we a polarized electorate?

• Yes…

• Safe states

Red and Blue States

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

Are we a polarized electorate?

• Yes…

• Safe states

• Safe congressional districts

• Rural/urban divide

Presidential Election 2008, by county

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

Are we a polarized electorate?

• Yes…

• Safe states

• Safe congressional districts

• Rural/urban divide

• Religious/non-religious divide

Religion

• In 1992:– Committed mainline Protestant: 17% more R than D– Nominal mainline Protestant 10% more R– Committed evangelical Protestant 3% more R– Nominal evangelical Protestant 20% more D– Committed Catholic 31% more D– Nominal Catholic 28% more D– Jewish 64% more D– Non-religious 18% more D

Are we a polarized electorate?

• Yes…

• Safe states

• Safe congressional districts

• Rural/urban divide

• Religious/non-religious divide

• Gender divide

Gender

• In 1992:– Male: 1% more D than R– Female: 16% more D than R

• In 2008:– Male: 1% more D than R– Female: 13% more D than R

– Gender Gap in Party ID: 12%

Are we a polarized electorate?

• No…

• The electorate is not more polarized

2008 Presidential electionColor indicates percent R or D

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

Resizing counties by population…

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

Political inclinations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Democratic ID Republican ID Liberal ID Conservative ID

Red States Blue States

Issue positions

0

20

40

60

80

100

Fight for countryright or wrong

Favor schoolvouchers

Favor prescriptiondrug benefit

Protectenvironment

Favor increasedefense spending

Red States Blue States

More issue positions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Abortion alwayslegal

English officiallanguage

Affirmativeaction

Stricter guncontrol

Red States Blue States

Moral values

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Churches keep out ofpolitics

Ban dangerous booksfrom school libraries

Homosexuality shouldbe accepted by society

Ok for clergy todiscuss candidates

Red States Blue States

Are we a polarized electorate?

• No…

• The electorate is not more polarized

• Our electoral choices are just more polarized– Candidates– Officeholders

Why have elites become more polarized?

Why are elites more polarized now?

• Rise of purists/decline of professionals

• Civil service

• (Closed) Primaries

• Redistricting

• Realignment of the South

• Media? The internet?

Is it really just the elites?

Pennsylvania: blue state where the electorate is really moderate? Or big state with “Pittsburgh in the west, Philadelphia in the East, and Alabama in the middle?”

Rush’s audience: the elite?