the content of storage content... · 2020. 12. 27. · (mm3) 7790 1613 605 165 capacity* (min)...

Coughlin Associates

© Coughlin Associates 2005 1

The Content of Storage

Tom CoughlinCoughlin Associates

www.tomcoughlin.com

Coughlin Associates


Outline

• Content Value Chain and Revenue Streams

• Storage and Entertainment Content Creation

• Applications for Consumer Electronics• Disk Drive Projections• Conclusions

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Digital Content Value Chain

Content Distribution

Content Reception

Content Creation

Content Editing

Content Archiving

•PVR/DVR/set-tops•Game Machines•Mobile Devices

•Streaming Media•VOD•PPV

•Tape•ATA Disk Arrays

•Optical Jukeboxes

•Field Editing•Studio Editing•Special Effects

•Cameras•Animation

Content Distribution

Content Reception

Content Creation

Content Editing

Content Archiving

•PVR/DVR/set-tops•Game Machines•Mobile Devices

•Streaming Media•VOD•PPV

•Tape•ATA Disk Arrays

•Optical Jukeboxes

•Field Editing•Studio Editing•Special Effects

•Cameras•Animation

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Digital Content Distribution ChainFrom Scott Kipp’s book “Broadband Entertainment.”

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Many Digital Content Revenue Streams

Formats Channel Device Applications

Cable

Telco

Satellite

Internet

CD/DVD

Broadcast

DVD Quality(MPEG-2)

TV/Set-Top Box

Internetstreaming

HDTV(MPEG-2)

Digital Cable(MPEG-2)

Real

Windows

Quicktime

MP3

PC

ConsumerElectronics

Wireless

ContentApplications& Services

DigitalCable

SVOD

VOD

Previewing

Display

Downloading

PortablePlayback

PVR

EmergingApps

DigitalRadio

From Isilon, SV 2003

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Applications for Consumer Electronics

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Storage Devices for Entertainment Reception

•Flash Memory

•Hard Disk Drives

•Optical Disks

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Two Primary CE Market Storage Niches

• Static or Fixed Appliances– Such as set top boxes, DVD

Recorders/players, DVR/PVRs, etc.

Mobile DevicesSuch as MP3 Players, Personal Video Players, Cell Phones, Still and Video Cameras, etc.

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What Will CE Devices look like in 2010?

• 2010 Portable Device (Jim Gray, Microsoft)– 100 Gips processor– 1 GB RAM– 1 TB disk– 1 Gbps network– Many form factors

• Example Mobile Communication and Intelligence Device– Stores millions of still photos, thousands of MP3 files,

hundreds of MPEG4 movies – Ubiquitous mobile and fixed communication capability (all

standard interfaces)– Carries biometric and other security features and includes

all your passwords and contacts– With appropriate sensors this can be your life recorder to

document your life (you are the entertainment)

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Blue Ray Optical Disks and Drive

By end of 2005 Blu Ray and HD-DVD Disks will be available with capacities up to 50 GB!

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200GB+Roadmap200GB+

Roadmap

0.7 0.74.7

8.54.7

15

30

20

25

5050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

CD DVD HD-DVD Blu-ray

Single-layerDual-layerRecordable

Blu-ray Disc Delivers More Capacity

Blu-ray Disc Delivers More Capacity

5-10x Capacityof DVD

67 - 150% morecapacity than

HD-DVD

HP, 2005 Storage Visions Conference

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Optical Content Distribution TrendsHolographic Disks

Source: Telcordia 3/03

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Flash Format

42.8 x 36.4 x 3.3 mm

Size Capacities

(1) Capacities as of September 2003

45.9 x 37.0 x .76 mmSmart Media

Card

32.0 x 24.0 x 1.4 mmMultimedia

Card

32.0 x 24.0 x 2.1 mmSD (Secure Digital)

Card

32.0 x 24.0 x 2.1 mmSD Expansion

Card

20.0 x 25.0 x 1.7 mmxD Picture

CardOlypus & Fuji Digital Cameras

Palm OS Devices

50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm

Memory Stick(Standard & Magic Gate)

Sony Devices

50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm

Memory Stick Pro(Standard & Magic Gate)

Sony Devices

50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm

Sony Devices

31.0 x 20.0 x 1.6 mm

Sony Devices

Memory Duo Stick(Standard & Magic Gate)

Memory Duo Stick Pro(Standard & Magic Gate)

Compact FlashType I

Capacity (MB)3264128256512

Capacity (MB)163264128256




Standard Capacity (MB)326412825651210242048

Performance Capacity (MB)256512102420484096


Flash Memory

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000

2001 2002 2003 2004

TB S

hipp

ed

14 formats and growing…

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Consumer Hard Disk Drive Form Factors

3.5-Inch Drives 0.85-Inch Drives

2.5-Inch Drives 1.0-Inch Drives

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HDD Quarter by Quarter Public Technology Demonstrations and

Product Announcements

y = 51.252e0.0717x

y = 14.778e0.108x

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q12000

Q22000

Q32000

Q42000

Q12001

Q22001

Q32001

Q42001

Q12002

Q22002

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

Q12004

Q22004

Q32004

Q42004

Are

al D

ensi

ty in

Gbp

si

TECHNOLOGY

PRODUCT

Expon. (TECHNOLOGY)

Expon. (PRODUCT)

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Perpendicular Recording

• Perpendicular Recording improves thermal stability of recording, thus increasing areal density

• Development of perpendicular recording systems could cause an increase in areal density growth similar to that with the introduction of the MR head in the early 1990s

• We could find areal density growth in the next few years again exceeding 60% annually

• Not all companies will convert to perpendicular recording at once, still life left in longitudinal recording

Illustration from Seagate

Toshiba announced a 1.8 inch drive with perpendicular recording technology to be available in the second quarter of 2005.

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What this means…

By 2006 or 2007 we will have 1 TB 3.5-inch Disk Drives and

20 GB 1 inch drives!

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Hitachi New DrivesMIKEY• Smallest Microdrive• Available in 2nd half 2005• Embedded version only

– PATA, CE-ATA, MMC-like• 8 – 10GB capacity• Targeting small handheld products,

including multimedia phones

SLIM• Smallest 1.8” hard drive• Single disk and 2-disk versions• 60 – 80GB capacity• Available in 2nd half 2005• Embedded version

– PATA, CE-ATA (future)• Targeting handheld audio and video products

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y = -3.7453x + 147.81

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Q498

Q199

Q299

Q399

Q499

Q100

Q200

Q300

Q400

Q101

Q201

Q301

Q401

Q102

Q202

Q302

Q402

Q103

Q203

Q303

Q403

Q104

Q204

Q304

ASP

for H

DD

Disk Drive ASP Trends(Weighted Average based on Seagate, Maxtor, and WD)

~12% Annual ASP Decline

~9% ASP Decline from Q3 ‘03 to Q3 ‘04

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The Battle for Mobile Supremacy

Flash HDD

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Mobile Storage Factors

• Size• Capacity• Price• Data Rate (BW)• Power Usage• Environmental Factors

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System Cost vs. MB

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

32M

B64

MB

128M

B25

6MB

512M

B1G

B2G

B4G

B8G

B16

GB

32G

B64

GB

128G

B25

6GB

512G

B1T

B

Tota

l Cos

FlashHDD 10x10x

100x100x

Jim Handy, Semico, 2005 Storage Visions Conference

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DiskOnChip H1 vs. Mini SD vs. HDD

HDD (best case) Mini SD DiskOnChip H1 DiskOnChip H1Capacity 1.5 / 2 / 4GB

$50 to $90

No

32mm / 42.8mm

24mm / 36.4mm

3.3mm / 5mm

Yes – adds power

1000mW and up

512MB / 1GB

0 to 65°C

Risky

Cost (estimated) $27 to $42

512MB / 1GB

$25 to $40

Yes – saves cost

18mm

12mm

1.4mm

No

NOR-less enable No

20mW

Length 21.5mm

Width 20mm

Height 1.4mm

-40 to 85°C

DRAM read buffer No

Power consumption 140mW

Temp range

Excellent

-40 to 85°C

Drop test Good

Scalable

Best cost

Smallest

Best Power cons.

Rugged

Solid state vs. rotating media cost comparison (estimated):2006 – Flash is lower cost below 4GB2008 – Flash is lower cost below 8GB

M-Systems, 2005 Storage Visions Conference

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Small Hard Disk Drives—Not The Answer For Mobile Phones

36.4

42.8

24.0

32.0

20.0

21.5

15.0

11.0

Measurements in mm

Products available in 2004Based on

Cornice 2GBdimensions

Thickness (mm) 5.0 2.1 1.4 1.0

Volume(mm3)

16560516137790

Capacity* (min)

Capacity(‘04 max)

1 GB* (~$60)

5 GB (~$70)

16 MB(~$6)

256 MB* (~$25)

16 MB(~$6)

1 GB(~$70)

32 MB(~$8)

2 GB (~$140)

Power 1000 mW * 20-50 mW

Shock Risky Excellent

SanDisk, 2005 Storage Visions Conference *1MB = 1 Million Bytes

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://szksrv.isc.chubu.ac.jp/picture/computer/harddisk.GIF&imgrefurl=http://szksrv.isc.chubu.ac.jp/images.html&h=214&w=156&sz=11&tbnid=KZH5FDHAoV4J:&tbnh=100&tbnw=73&start=21&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dharddisk%26start%3D20%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26sa%3DN

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Portable Consumer Digital DevicesS

tora

ge

Req

uire

men

t

Flash implementation in CE will continue to growHDD is an excellent choice for high capacity applications

64 MB32 MB 128 MB 256 MB 512 MB 1 GB 2 GB 4 GB 8 GB 16 GB 32 GB 64 GB

Digital still camera

PDA

Mobile phone

MP3 player

MP3 jukebox

Flash HDD

Handheld Game

Camcorders

Video player

Automotive

currentfuture

With multi-functions

Game Console

Hitachi GST, 2005 Storage Visions Conference

http://www2.shopping.com/xPC-Nintendo_Gameboy_Advance_SP

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Or is it Mutual Admiration?A Mobile Storage Hierarchy

Capacity Data Rate

Flash Memory

Hard Disk Drives

Not included here: power and size or optical storage

Nobody wants to be

here!

Environmental Performance

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$/GB Advantage of HDDs Less for Smaller Drives

NAND Flash vs. Disc

1

10

100

1000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$/G

B

Flash Chip 0.85" 1.0" 0.85" 3mm Samsung Flash

OEM Nand Flash Data Point ~ $73/GB

~$24/GB

~$43/GB

~$13/GB

Market RisksNand flash pricing reductions to combat HDD entrance3.3 mm high risk due to $/GB compared to flash

Need cell phone real estate to allow 5mm HDD solutions

Source: Seagate, 2005 Storage Visions Conference

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More (or maybe less) to Come…

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CE Volume is Very Sensitive to Product Price

+

-

VOLU

ME

$99 $199 $299CE PRICE

SSPL

NPZ

+

-

VOLU

ME

$99 $199 $299CE PRICE

SSPL

NPZ

From Cornice, 2003

Storage Unit Price is Large Percentage of Total BOM Cost

30% MarkupHardDisk CE Device

$50.00 $65.00

30% Markup

$91.13

Retailer

Distributor

Consumer

$84.50

30% Markup

$109.85

HDDValue

HDDValue

HDDValue

HDDValue

(1.30 X 1.30 X 1.30) = 220%

$199.99/220% = $90.90 BOM Cost

$50.00/$90.90 = HDD is 55% of BOM

MSRP $199.99

Storage is a significant % of the BOM Costs for CE Devices!

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Two Extreme Poles of CE Disk Drive Integration

--Driven by Cost--Total

Integration into the

Host

Total Integration

onto the Drive

Disk Drive Becomes A ChipDisk Drive Companies

Become Contract Manufacturers for Host

Companies

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Methods of HDD CE Integration

Tomorrow

Today

Source: Pat Hanlon Brief, 2004

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Replay TV Teardown--Put it on the Drive Board?--

The four-layer mainboard supports the tuner and more than 38 integrated circuits. The mainboard also provides multiple interface connections, including VGA, digital audio, infrared and S-Video, as well as the PC connection for storing and viewing photos. While virtually all devices found in the Replay TV unit are "catalog items," the architecture is certainly unique to the DVR application. Most key ICs-including TeraLogic video processors and processor/logic components from PMC-Sierra and Xilinx-are connected to a shared PCI bus. Broadcom provides MPEG encoding functions, while a Philips device supplies video decode for external S-Video.

Portelligent Teardown Report from March 24, 2003 EE Times

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Integrate What Where?• For single drive enabled applications

perhaps integration on the drive board makes the most sense for the ultimate cost reduction

• For a multiple drive application such as network storage perhaps integration of as much electronics off the drive board as possible on the system side offers the greatest cost reduction

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Network Storage in the Home

• Driven by the growth of home “reference data” such as photographs, family videos, financial records, etc.

• Need for reliable backup and preservation of this material in the home.

• Also driven by growing home entertainment networking that will require shared storage

• Need Low Cost Options for home networking

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Familiarity with Network-Attached Storage Solutions

(Among Internet Households, Home Network Owners and Intenders, n = 817)

Never heard of39%

Heard of but not familiar29%

Familiar with but do not own29%

Own Network-Attached Storage solution

3%

The Diffusion Group, 2005 Storage Visions Conference

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Primary Type of Content to be Stored on NAS(Among Internet Households, NAS Intenders, n = 280)

Music files13%

Full-length movies8%

Home-created videos8%

Duplicates of important data38%

Family photographs33%

The Diffusion Group, 2005 Storage Visions Conference

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Network Storage PackagingStealthdrive Faceplate Assembly

Paul Cochrane, 2005 Storage Visions

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Network Storage PackagingTortured Path EMC Solutions

Paul Cochrane, 2005 Storage Visions

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Disk Drive Projections

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HDD Market Niche Projections

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Uni

ts in

thou

sand

s

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

MobileCEDesktopEnterprise ATAEnterprise

Coughlin Associates


HDD Form Factor Projections

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Uni

ts (i

n th

ousa

nds)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1 inch or less1.8 inch2.5 inch3.5 inch

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CE Drive Applications

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Uni

ts in

thou

sand

s

.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Cell PhonesAutomotiveDigital Still CameraDigital Video CameraAV PlayersPVR/DVR/STB/Home NetworkGamesOther CE

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Conclusions• Digital content creation, distribution, and Consumer

Electronics require large volumes of storage• Storage devices and requirements vary throughout the

content value chain• Choice of storage device based on several factors—

storage hierarchy• Integration of storage into consumer electronics will be a

key way to lower prices and increase market penetration of storage applications

• Content Creation and Consumer Electronics represent a fast growing opportunity for storage devices and storage systems companiesAcknowledgement: Much of the material from this presentation was created while researching the forthcoming 2005 Digital Entertainment Series Reports, For more information see www.tomcoughlin.com.

http://www.tomcoughlin.com/

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The journey of a thousand files begins with a single bit…

The Content of StorageOutlineDigital Content Value ChainDigital Content Distribution ChainFrom Scott Kipp’s book “Broadband Entertainment.”Many Digital Content Revenue StreamsApplications for Consumer ElectronicsStorage Devices for Entertainment ReceptionTwo Primary CE Market Storage NichesWhat Will CE Devices look like in 2010?Blue Ray Optical Disks and DriveOptical Content Distribution TrendsFlash MemoryConsumer Hard Disk Drive Form FactorsHDD Quarter by Quarter Public Technology Demonstrations and Product AnnouncementsPerpendicular RecordingBy 2006 or 2007 we will have 1 TB 3.5-inch Disk Drives and 20 GB 1 inch drives!Hitachi New DrivesDisk Drive ASP Trends(Weighted Average based on Seagate, Maxtor, and WD)The Battle for Mobile SupremacyMobile Storage FactorsSystem Cost vs. MBDiskOnChip H1 vs. Mini SD vs. HDDSmall Hard Disk Drives—Not The Answer For Mobile PhonesPortable Consumer Digital DevicesOr is it Mutual Admiration?A Mobile Storage HierarchyMore (or maybe less) to Come…CE Volume is Very Sensitive to Product PriceTwo Extreme Poles of CE Disk Drive Integration--Driven by Cost--Methods of HDD CE IntegrationReplay TV Teardown--Put it on the Drive Board?--Integrate What Where?Network Storage in the HomeDisk Drive ProjectionsHDD Market Niche ProjectionsHDD Form Factor ProjectionsCE Drive ApplicationsConclusionsThe journey of a thousand files begins with a single bit…

the content of storage content... · 2020. 12. 27. · (mm3) 7790 1613 605 165 capacity* (min)...

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