Nairobi, Kenya8th May 2015

Ipsos’ 1st Quarter SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Survey:

Sixth Media Release

The Constitution: One-Third Gender Rule Few Kenyans are aware of the one-third gender rule Only half of those aware think that the requirement will be met before the current

deadline (August 2015) Among all Kenyans, there is no difference between men and women in whether

having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would affect the quality of politics and governance

Introduction Kenyans – including Members of Parliament, it appears – continue to learn more about their new constitution – the hard way. That is, certain implementation requirements that had not attracted much attention are now doing so as the five-year deadline for the implementation of some of its provisions becomes clearer.

At the moment, the one causing most jitters is that which requires that no more than two-thirds of all legislative bodies be of the same gender. This includes both houses of parliament and all 47 county assemblies. Such ‘affirmative action’ was seen by the drafters as necessary to compensate for the dominance of men in Kenyan society, which has both pre-colonial (e.g., inheritance practices) and contemporary manifestations (e.g., the disadvantage of women with regard to the material resources that winning both party nominations and actual elective seats require).

Prior to the first general election under the new constitution, the Attorney-General requested and received an advisory opinion from the Supreme Court in December, 2012 allowing that while this requirement need not apply to the March, 2013, elections, it must be in effect by 27 August, 2015, five years after the new constitution was promulgated.

This deadline is appearing increasingly dreadful to all these sitting members, since according to the constitution – as well as the Supreme Court which issued a ruling on the matter last year – if legislation has not been passed and signed into law by August 27, any citizen could go to court and seek an order dissolving all these legislative bodies, to be followed by new elections for each. And it is widely agreed that the last thing such members would relish is having to return to the campaign trail (assuming they could overcome the first hurdle of party nominations) more than two years early.

At present, there are only 21 women MPs in the National Assembly out of a total of 349, making just 6%. Moreover, of the 290 elected seats, only 15 are women, or 5%. Clearly, then, something drastic must be done to push the figure up to one-third.

For its part, Justice and Legal Affairs Chairman Samuel Chepkong’a has shepherded a bill through his committee that seeks to “indefinitely postpone” this requirement, though women MPs and several governance NGOs are demanding withdrawal of the bill, as have The Commission on the Implementation of the Constitution, on the grounds that it clearly violates the constitution. One key problem, however, is that even those in support of the 1/3-

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maximum gender rule have been unable to agree on just how this should be achieved, at least without substantially increasing the number of members of all the legislative bodies concerned, given the ballooning public wage bill – and the public’s clear unhappiness with this situation.

For example, in another part of this same Ipsos survey, when asked for suggestions as to how the teachers’ demands for better terms of services might be met, most Kenyans suggested (in addition to reducing corruption), cuts in the pay and benefits of elected leaders or a reduction in their number, neither of which suggest there is much support for expanding the legislature’s population of whatever gender.

Even more relevant, when asked what changes in the current constitution, if any, do they support, more respondents (12%) mentioned “reducing the number of elected officials” than anything else, followed closely by those (11%) who support “reducing the salaries and benefits of elected officials.”

In light of this looming deadline, Ipsos included several questions on this issue in its most recent SPEC survey, the results of which are presented below.

Only four out ten Kenyans (39%) are aware of the one-third gender rule Respondents were first asked, “What is the constitutional requirement about the representation of women in all elected bodies such as parliament, county assemblies?” Not even half (39%) knew the correct answer, although substantially more men than women did so (45% vs. 33%).

“If you know, what is the constitutional requirement about the representation of women in all elected bodies such as parliament, county assemblies?” (By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

39%

45%

33%

41%44%

25% 25% 24% 24% 24%

37%

29%

43%

36%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Total (n=1,964) Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008) CORD Supporters(n=624)

Jubilee Supporters(n=871)

Correct answer [at least one-third women] Incorrect answer Don't Know

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Half of those aware (52%) think that the requirement will be met within the period stated in the constitution (August 2015)Among those aware of this requirement, barely half (52%) are optimistic that it can be met before the August deadline, with one-third (34%) certain that it will not be; the remainder (14%) are not sure. In partisan terms, only slightly more Jubilee than CORD supporters express such optimism (29% vs. 25%).

YES, 52%NO, 34%

Not sure/Don't Know, 14%

Base: Those aware of the one-third gender rule (n=764)

“Do you think that this requirement will be met within the period stated in the constitution (August 2015)?” (By Total)

Among all Kenyans, there is no difference between men and women in the belief that having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would affect the quality of politics and governance More generally, Kenyans are divided on whether having met this requirement, the quality of politics/governance in the country would improve, with about half (48%) believing this would be the case, and rest themselves divided between being uncertain, or certain that it would make no difference (25% and 27%, respectively). Surprisingly, perhaps, men and women are equally modest in their expectations on this issue (47% vs. 48%), suggesting that those most active in promoting this provision’s implementation have considerable work to be done in convincing even those for whom it was intended to be most beneficial (i.e., women).

However, Jubilee supporters are slightly more optimistic than their CORD counterparts regarding such expectations (53% vs. 44%).

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48% 47% 48% 44%53%

27%32%

23%29% 27%25% 21%

29% 28%20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

All respondents(n=1,964)

Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008) CORD Supporters(n=624)

Jubilee Supporters(n=871)

YES NO Not sure

“Do you think having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would improve the quality of politics and governance?” (By Total, Gender, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

Among those aware of the rule, a higher proportion believe that having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would improve the quality of politics and governanceHowever, among the 39% aware of the constitutional requirement, two-thirds (66%) expect an improvement in public life following such an increase in female representation in the country’s elective bodies. Within this more aware section of the sample, women are marginally more optimistic than men about such beneficial impact (70% vs. 63%), even if no significant contrast is seen between CORD and Jubilee supporters (again, within this ‘aware’ group: 66% vs. 65%).

66% 63%70% 66% 65%

27% 31%22% 24%

29%

7% 6% 8% 10% 6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Those aware of the1/3 Gender rule

(n=764)

Male (n=435) Female (n=329) CORD Supporters(n=254)

Jubilee Supporters(n=384)

YES NO Not sure

“Do you think having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would improve the quality of politics and governance?” (Of Those Aware of the 1/3 Gender Rule, by Total Gender, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

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CommentWhile it remains unclear what solution will be found to remove this gender-rule ‘Sword of Damocles’ hanging over parliament’s head, it is certain that the last thing current Members want is to miss this deadline, triggering dissolution of parliament and new elections. Yet they, and their sponsoring political parties, also know that public support for any increase in the cost of government with which they are associated will make their re-election more difficult, whenever the next election is held.

In this regard, the estimated additional annual cost of each additional MP of Shs. 21m (according to the Institute of Economic Affairs) is not something likely to go down well with the already-overburdened tax-payer.

But is there any way in which this requirement can be met without increasing the total number of seats? One method would be to randomly select one-third of the 290 ordinary constituencies prior to each election and require that only women candidates can be nominated to run for those seats. Then in each subsequent election, those constituencies that had already ‘had their turn’ (to be represented by a woman) would be removed from the selection-pool, until all constituencies have been covered, at which point the process would start over again with all of them back in the selection-pool. Since some additional constituencies may also end up with a female representative, it is possible – if not likely – that the one-third minimum threshold will be more than met. But if that saves public money by avoiding an increase in the overall number of seats, it would probably get more public support than any of the other proposals currently being discussed – including the ‘to-be-progressively-implemented’ one offered by Hon. Chepkong’a, that the women MPs are so vehemently opposing.

Finally, there is the matter of the contrast between women who enter parliament through regular, competitive elections at the constituency level in contests against other candidates of whatever gender, and those who do so through some female-only formula. Would the implementation of this gender constitutional requirement make winning nominations and actual seats in the ‘normal’ way more difficult? And would those who win in contests against men feel ‘superior’ to their gender-quota female colleagues? For that matter, do the 15 who won in such contests in the last election feel that way, or does it make no difference?

Survey Methodology The target population for this survey was Kenyans aged 18 years and above, of whom 1,964 living in urban and rural areas were interviewed. The margin-of-error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 with a 95% confidence level.

The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 28th March and 7th April 2015. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews using hand held devices (smart phones). Ipsos Limited (Kenya) funded the survey.

For further details on this press release please contact:Dr. Tom Wolf Victor RatengResearch Analyst Opinion Polls Project Managertpwolf1944@gmail.com victor.rateng@ipsos.comTel: 386 2721-33 Tel: 386 2721-33www.ipsos.co.ke www.ipsos.co.ke

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