the competitive advantage and the development forecast of

92
國立交通大學 管理學院(管理科學學程)碩士班 台灣汽車零組件產業競爭優勢與 發展趨勢預測 The Competitive Advantage and the Development Forecast of The Automobile Components Industry in Taiwan 生:張沼沂 指導教授:黃仁宏 博士

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The Automobile Components Industry in Taiwan



()



The Competitive Advantage and the Development Forecast of The Automobile Components Industry in Taiwan
StudentChao-I Chang AdvisorDr. Jen-Hung Huang
Abstract
Taking an overview on the development of Taiwan’s automobile components industry,
we can find those firms in this industry have transferred their strategy from pure manufacture
to manufacturing service because of the limitations such as small market size, various model
of parts, and the royalty of the technological support from the cooperation company. Besides
the manufacturing service, most of the firms in this industry also start the multi-brand OEM
project to average the production cost, join into the global operation system and increasing the
investment amount in Mainland China.
In this research, we first analysis the violation of the internal and external circumstance
including the factors such as WTO, magnet effect in Mainland China, emergency countries,
globalization etc., then try to identify the competence of the automobile components industry
by SWOT and the Five Forces Analysis. And we adopted the Diamond Model (Porter, 1990)
to exam the formation conditions of this industry competence. Final step was to survey 9
experts in the industry by Delphi method to forecast the productivity, potential product,
profitable area for exporting, and the development trend of this industry.
The result of Five Forces Analysis indicated that the automobile component industry has
became the oligopoly market; the strength is bargain power and the low threat of substitute
product under this circumstance And through the diamond model analysis, the competence of
experience, money, human resource, management, quality, technology, cluster effect, and
government policy are power enough to form national competitive advantage. Thus we finally
conclude that a) the total industry productivity will be get the target NT$443,758 million, b)
the rapid speed of exporting growth area is Mainland China with the GAGR 31.83%, and c)
the most potential category is electrical parts with the CAGR 11.00%.
ii
iii

i ii iii iv vi viii 1 1.1 1 1.2 4
6 2.1 6 2.1.1 6 2.1.2 7 2.1.3 8
2.2 10 2.2.1 10 2.2.2 SWOT 12 2.2.3 14 2.2.4 15 2.3 ( Delphi method ) 17 19 3.1 19 3.2 21 3.3 23
24 4.1. 24 4.1.1 24 4.1.2 26 4.2. 29 4.2.1 29 4.2.2 32 4.3. 35 4.3.1 36 4.3.2 38
iv
42 5.1 42 5.2 43
47 6.1 47 6.2 SWOT 53 6.3 55
59 7.1 59 7.2 60 7.3 64 7.4 65
70 8.1 70 8.2 72
74 78
2 10 3
3 6
4 22
7 200330
9 32
10 33
11 () 34
12 35
14 2003 37
15 39
16 40
17 49
19 54
23 64
24 65
25 66
vii
8 14
9 Porter 16
10 20
11 21
12 31
13 52
2000
1,400 2003 1,667 2002 7.5% 1,892 32.9% ( 1)1993 38.3%10 2003 70.8 % 1( 2)
1989 70%
50% 2002 WTO

1989 33.2% 2003 58.5%




OEM




(AM) 2003 1,667 3,784 2004 8 5
3 ~ 5
Method) SWOT
2012 1990 5.2%
2001



458,330 481,146 394,569 455,315 507,349 11.4
64.0 66.1 65.2 69.5 70.1
28.7 29.2 32.2 34.0 32.9
IEK-ITIS (2004/05)
2003
%

D=A-B+C E F=B/A G=C/D 1-G
1993 111,584.0 42,755.0 57,108.0 125,937.0 2.8 38.3 45.3 54.7
1994 116,203.4 47,914.0 64,076.0 132,365.4 5.1 41.2 48.4 51.6
1995 125,544.0 54,534.0 71,981.0 142,991.0 8.0 43.4 50.3 49.7
1996 120,467.9 62,370.0 55,371.0 113,468.9 -20.6 51.8 48.8 51.2
1997 124,459.9 68,034.0 58,354.0 114,779.9 1.2 54.7 50.8 49.2
1998 132,219.4 71,215.0 66,287.0 127,291.4 10.9 53.9 52.1 47.9
1999 131,413.8 77,555.0 56,089.0 109,947.8 -13.6 59.0 51.0 49.0
2000 140,454.9 82,877.0 63,981.0 121,558.9 10.6 59.0 52.6 47.4
2001 127,092.3 87,737.0 47,426.0 86,781.3 -28.6 69.0 54.7 45.3
2002 155,164.0 99,766.4 55,136.9 110,534.5 27.4 64.3 49.9 50.1
2003 166,687.0 118,083.4 68,506.8 117,110.4 5.9 70.8 58.5 41.5
3232 IKE-ITIS(2004/05)

3

IT IC
3. SWOT
4.

(Delphi Method)
2.1

2.

2. ()

7
Hill &Jones (1998)Strategic Management Theory
(1)(barriers to imitation)(2)(3)
2.1.3




Porter (1985)








9
10

(Barriers to Entry)
Joe Bain (1)(2) (3) Bain
(4)

(3)


SOMax-Max WOMin-Max
STMax-Min WTMin-Min
(T)
5 SWOT
(O)
Aldag and Stearns (1987), The analysis of SWOT Strategy







(Environmental Treat and Opportunity Profile, ETOP) (Strategic Advantage Profile, SAP) ( 7)

E T O P

7 ETOP SAP Jauch & Glueck (1984), Strategic Management and Business Policy
13

14
2.2.4
Michael Porter

1990 PorterThe competitive Advantage of Nations


15


( 9)
5.



(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
6.


Gupta & Clarke(1996)Theory and applications of the Delphi technique
(1994)






18


(Genuine Parts)(Non-Genuine Parts)
11















22














5 2000 ~ 2003 %
2000 2001 2002 2003 03/02 1,740 1,717 1,684 1,667 -1.0 596 593 581 587 1.1 208 235 291 397 36.2 369 363 352 352 -0.1 251 277 288 289 0.3
267 266 262 248 -5.2 261 275 260 245 -5.7 171 175 163 168 3.3 154 157 170 159 -6.4 115 125 129 145 12.1
147 158 148 142 -4.2 143 143 163 142 -12.7 1,332 1,266 1,287 1,367 6.2 5,754 5,750 5,778 5,908 2.2
Automotive News
28.2% 12 76.8% 2003 Ford
010 1100 700 65%
24
General Motor SaabFujiSuzukiFord VolvoJaguar Land RoverMazda Daihatsu ToyotaMitsubishi Hyundai Daimler-ChryslerVolkswagen SeatSkoda Audi Samsung Renault-Nissan
Peugeot Citroen PSAHonda BMW6+3 90% 6
GM
Daiml
Fo
Toy
Rena
Volksw
PS
H
B


6 2000 ~ 2003 %
2000 2001 2002 2003 03/02
1,423 1,347 1,367 1,385 1.3 er-Chrysler

904 884 919 910 -1.0
rd 840 787 778 761 -2.2 ota 570 592 616 678 10.0 ult-Nissan

506 499 513 535 4.2
agen 516 508 499 501 0.4 A 287 313 326 328 0.6 onda 254 267 283 291 2.8 MW 101 90 105 110 4.5 350 459 367 404 10.1 5,754 5,750 5,778 5,908 2.2 Automotive News IEK-IT IS(2004/06)
Toyota 1994
2003 2002 10%Toyota 2002
2010 15% SCM
25


4.1.2
The Global Automotive Components2003
7.43AM 450 2005 8.5 2020 11

AM 3% 35%
120 AM


1
2.3% 1/3 147
90% AM 87% State Farm State Farm Farmers InsuranceTraveler Insurance AM AM (1)AM(2)AM(3)
(4)
DelphiMagnaAutoliv VisteonLearJohnson Controls TRW


AM
1
1999 State Farm 4.56
6

WTO
3% 2004 NAFTA AFTA 0~5%




2003 512.9 65.7 1994 57 2001 34 40 2003 58.9% 87% 7
29















512.88 657,000 386,686 361,878 58.9 100.0


(2004/05)

85% 8 15% BMWBenzLexus

12

1999 362,550 60,940 423,490 85.6
2000 354,737 65,709 420,446 84.4
2001 291,283 56,140 347,423 83.8
2002 345,064 53,813 398,877 86.5
2003 357,212 56,694 413,909 86.3
IEK-IT IS(2004/05)
(1)(2)
(3)(4)(5)
(6)WTO
4.2.2
2002 1,944 61,641 1,952 2000





10


118 59,022 243
90 33,752 548
71 39,809 246
95 13,688 95
60 7,006 71
434 33,525 250
33


2003 421 1,180 35.7% 150 9.1% 79 6.7%
11

33,155
(37.8%)
39,570
(39.7%)
42,147
(35.7%)
8.3%
7,460
(8.5%)
7,129
(7.1%)
7,960
(6.7%)
2.2%
5,565
(6.3%)
6,120
(6.1%)
15,023
(9.1%)
39.2%
()
2001~2003 10.4% 12.0%
2001 2002 2003 2001~2003


2015
1,000 GDP 2.5% 50~60


26 38.3%
2003 439 2002 325
35% 202 2002 109 85% 13







1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
56 (31%)
61 (30%)
70 (30%)
109 (34%)
202 (46%)
76 (42%)
76 (37%)
81 (34%)
110 (34%)
123 (28%)
51 (28%)
70 (34%)
84 (36%)
106 (33%)
114 (26%)
183 (100%)
207 (100%)
235 (100%)
325 (100%)
439 (100%)


14

70~80% 2006 10% 20


104,505 120,000 87.1 85%
102,083 100,000 102.1 50%
91,223 100,000 91.2 20%
71,555 80,000 89.4
FOURIN China Auto Weekly IEK-IT IS


7 1 25%
05 1 1 (1) (2)(3) (4)
(5) (7)
37


2001 1,558 1,325 168 65 KPMG 2001 168 16 1995~2001 18.3%

1994
2001 2002 WTO

15


eon 6

son
W 8
o SA 6

FOURIN(2002) IT IS(2002/12)



Yazaki 4
onic Kansei 1
dge stone 2
NSK 3
ley Electric 4 LED
ahi Glass 2
Hitachi 1
Sanden 2


(1998~2001 )

(1)(2)(3) (4)(5)(6) (7)(8)(9) (10)(11)(12)



(Functional Parts) /



3.(Vital Parts)
4.(Accessories)

(Dealer Options)(Maker Options) (Line Options)
5.2
20%




(SKD)
10% 60%

1968
(2) 1964
(3) 1965
(4) 1965


(CKD)
50~60%
(2) 1970 (3) 1971 12
44
(4) 1972 8
1965 50% 75% 46% 65% (5) 1975 (6) 1977 50%
3.( 1979~1991 ) 1979


70%

(Toyota) 1981
1986 (2) 1985 2
30%
50%


AM

30% 10% (2) WTO

3%

ECU B

C


46







(1) OEM
OEM







60~100 120 108 85~110 105
(2002/12)



()













State Farm AM



2000 84
(2)







(2)
Porter



IT




(3)

(2)
a. b. c. d. e. f.
(3)

6.
(4)
State Farm AM (6)
(7)
2000


(2)
(3)
(6)


58

1 20

2005 2 1 2005 2 20

M
Min
Mid
3 1


31.83%






(CV) 10%

60
IT

10.07%

Telematic







()

22 25
2004 ~2008 10.61% 2009 ~2013 9.96% 23
1994-19
98 4.09
03 6.13






23 2013
443,758 24
13






66


AM






(3) Porter


2. (1)
2004~2008 10.61% 2009~2013 9.96% 2003 166,687 2013 443,758 (2) 2013
2013 (31.83%)(7.97%) (2.92%)
2013 (11.00%)(10.07%)(9.57%) (8.62%)(5.64%)
70

(AM) (5) Telematics
(6) IT
4C(Car) 26
26 IT

IT
(2005/02)
BER
8.2

(2)
(3)

(5)
(6)



(8) (AM)


(3) (4)


SWOT
(MS)(RCA)

(5)
2. 2002
3.
5. 2002

2005 2
2004
9
11.
13. (M.E.Porter)
1996 8
15. 922004
11

74
2002
2000

2001
2004 12
24. (92 94 )2003 6
25. 2004
11
28. 2005 63405
2004 12

32.
75
25993~992004
36. 2003
2
37. ITISwww.itis.org.tw/
38. www.itri.org.tw/index.jsp
39. www.autoinfo.gov.cn/

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Publishing CO., 1987.
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49. Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad, “Competing for the future”, Cambridge,
MAHarvard business school Press, 1994.
76
50. Gupta & Clarke, “Theory and Applications of the Delphi technique”, 1996.
51. Jairath, N. & Weinstein, J., “The Delphi methodologya useful
administrative approach”, Canadian Journal of Nursing Administration, 7,
pp.29~42, 1994.
Addison-Wesley Publishing co., Inc., 1975.
54. Long C. & Vickers-Koch M., “Using Core Capabilities to Create
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Education, 35, pp.922~923, 2001.
62 Weilhrich, Heinz, “ The SWOT Matrix-A toad for situational analysis”, Long
Range Planning, vol. 15, Iss. 2, pp.54~66,1982.
77



() (2001~2003) 2004~2013(%)


79
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000
20 01
20 03
20 05
20 07
20 09
20 11
20 13


10.0% 25,61122,11019,219
12.0% 15,20813,56010,835
10.4% 118,08499,76687,738
10.6% 52,58142,17238,874
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
20 01
20 02
20 03
20 04
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
20 09
20 10
20 11
20 12
20 13