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The CO2 Global Challenge
Road Transports (re) evolution
Carloandrea Malvicino
CO2 Emissions Reduction Strategies
Turin June 2017
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Conclusions
• Road mobility and transport are globally asked to reduce of up to
30% the fuel consumption in the next 5 years and more stringent
regulation are incoming
• Thermal combustion engine will remain a crucial technology for at
least the next 10 -15 years while electrification will diffuse
progressively function of regional needs
• The Cost of the technologies will become even an more relevant issue
Key Issues and Enabling Factors
• Global Product and Technologies but adaptable to Regional needs
• Environmental, Economic and Social affordability
• Infrastructure development
• Thermal Management
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CO2 Emission Reduction in the news
“Human activities contribute to climate
change by causing changes in Earth’s
atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse
gases, aerosols (small particles), and
cloudiness.” [European Environment Agency]
“In 2016…it was confirmed that
transport is the biggest source of
greenhouse gas emissions in Europe.” [ Transport&Environment, T&E]
United Nations Climate Change
Conference of the Parties - COP21 agreement to set a goal of limiting global
warming to less than 2 °C compared to pre-
industrial levels
“The largest known contribution comes
from the burning of fossil fuels, which
releases carbon dioxide gas to the
atmosphere.” [European Environment Agency]
COMMITTED TO SUSTAINABILITY
FCA included in the prestigious Dow Jones Sustainability Index World, as
well as the CDP Climate Performance Leadership Index (A list)
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The Greenhouse Gases emissions reduction is a
Global Challenge
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Road Vehicles Global CO2 emissions
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/a-world-of-thoughts-on-phase-2
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Road transports contribute to Global CO2
emission for about the 17%
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Road Mobility Global Facts and Figures
In Use (10% renewal rate): 1,30 Billions Uts 2,15 Billions Uts https://www.statista.com/statistics/281134/number-of-vehicles-in-use-worldwide/
Energy Demand: 12’000 TWh 16’000 TWh https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/transportation.cfm
Fossil Fuel: 1’500 Billion Liter 1’750 Billion Liter https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2017
Electricity Prod.: 24’000 TWh 37’000 TWh https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/electricity.cfm
2040 2016
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Global Electric Energy Production Breakdown
Trillions
kWh
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/electricity.cfm
The main electric energy source will remain based on fossil fuels
Without the improvement of conventional technologies the road transport
electrification can not dramatically reduce the Global CO2 emissions
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World Fuel Scenario
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 - EXXON Mobil 2016
Internal Combustion Engines will remain by far even more
largely adopted for heavy duty vehicles where the majority
will be based on advanced diesel engines
Gasoline will remains the most diffused fuel
type being adopted also for hybrids.
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Key elements to reduce the CO2 emissions
• Promote the effective use of existing vehicles supporting the
driver to operate efficiently the vehicle (e.g. Fiat EcoDrive)
• New Vehicles’ Efficiency increase
Reducing the vehicles motion resistance
Further improving the powertrain
• Promote the use of CO2 efficient fuels (e.g. CNG)
• Progressively increase the distance traveled not emitting fossil
CO2 at zero CO2 emissions electrification
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Automotive Domain Characteristics,
Regulations and Scenario
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The Automotive domain…
is characterised by different scenarios…
1.3 Billion of vehicles
world wide
(http://www.oica.net/category/vehicles-in-use/)
Renewal rate 10% ca.
…but a global market
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• Increased complexity
• Higher energy consumption
• Increased weight
• Higher failure rates
• Higher costs
• …
…always in evolution…
• Reduced fatalities (-30%)
• Improved fuel economy (+30%)
•Reduced noxious emissions (- 95%)
• Increased comfort
• Better driveability
• …
Road fatalities in the EU since 2001
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…and rules…
EU regulations
road map on
emissions
Designing the Future with "Clean Power" - Analysis and Strategic Solution Concepts on a Powertrain System Level - Dr.-Ing. Detlev Schöppe, Dr.-Ing. Hong Zhang,
Dipl.-Ing. Friedrich Kapphan, Dipl.-Ing. Christof Schmidt - Continental, Regensburg, Germany - 21st Aachen Colloquium Automobile and Engine Technology 2012
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…even more severe on CO2
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Targets set by Regulations
Based on data from http://www.theicct.org/global-pv-standards-chart-library
a on top to MAC and F Gas regulations
b credits are granted using low GWP refrigerants
a
a
b
The GHG (green House gases) emission reduction driven is worldwide
binding regulations
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BETTER
ENVIRONMENTAL
PERFORMANCE
MORE VALUE TO THE
CUSTOMER, ATTRACT
NEW CUSTOMERS
IMPROVE
COMPETITIVENESS
STAND-OUT
AND WIN THE
COMPETITION
The scenario change implies also new opportunities
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ECONOMICS
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Fuel Consumption Saving Benefit Estimation
1% Fuel Saving 570 l/year 855 €/year
Traveled distance: 20’000 km/year
Fuel cost: 1,5 €/l
Fuel consumption: 8 l/100 km
Period: 3 Years
Data sources: EU Eco Innovations Technical Guidelines, Transport & Environment
1% Fuel saving 16l/year 24 €/year
Traveled distance: 150’000 km/year
Fuel cost: 1,5 €/l
Fuel consumption: 38l/100 km
Period: 3 Years
Heavy Duty Trucks
Average values
Passenger Cars
Average values
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The recipe to achieve the CO2 compliance
17
Powertrain
Efficiency
Vehicle
Demand
Electrification
Powertrains Powertrain improvements
Stop/Start (ESS) Belt Starter Generator (BSG) Plug in Hybrid (PHEV) Full Battery Electric (BEV)
Aerodynamics Tire Rolling Resistance
Eco-innovations
Eco-innovations
The economic affordability is even more crucial
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VDE improvement
On Board Energy Management
Powertrain Technologies Hybrids
Cost of the Improvements
Cost is a key element - Only technologies with a cost-benefit ratio
lower than 60 € /saved CO2 g (i.e. 1% improvement) are considered
prioritary in the passenger car domain
Cost – Benefit
Passenger Cars
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To select the most appropriate technologies is crucial
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Why Cost is so relevant?
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Why the passenger car market is so challenging?
Named «Hi-TECH»
«Fast Food»
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Electrification Enabling Factors
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The role of Infrastructures
http://energy.sia-partners.com/sites/default/files/20160831_sia_partners_ev_charging_infrastructure_insight_vf3_0.pdf
Role of charging point density on number of electric
chargeable vehicles in Belgium (study):
• 1 Charging point each 10 vehicles
• 1 Fuel Station each 3500 vehicles (Germany)
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On board thermal management
Thermal Comfort impact over a year on a Battery Electric Vehicle range:
electric range is highly affected thermal system energy demand in winter as
well as in summer from 10% up to the 40%.
To fulfill the thermal comfort requirements the range of an electric vehicle risks to
be seriously affected. The impact can be even more relevant if additional thermal
energy is required to manage the battery and electronics operation
Paris Seville
The effective thermal management is vital to ensure range, reliability and
lifetime on electric vehicles and requires a specific approach and new components
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Conclusions
• Road mobility and transport are globally asked to reduce of up to
30% the fuel consumption in the next 5 years and more stringent
regulation are incoming
• Thermal combustion engine will remain a crucial technology for at
least the next 10 -15 years while electrification will diffuse
progressively function of regional needs
• The Cost of the technologies will become even an more relevant issue
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Key Issues and Enabling Factors
• Global Product and Technologies but adaptable to Regional needs
• Environmental, Economic and Social affordability
• Infrastructure development
• Thermal Management
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Contacts
Carloandrea Malvicino
EMEA Vehicle Safety and Regulation Compliance
CO2 Emissions Reduction Strategies
E-mail: [email protected]
FCA Italy S.p.A.
C.so Settembrini, 40 10135 Torino
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