the changing u.s. economy
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TRANSCRIPT
- 1. The Changing U.S. Economy: What Does It Mean for Oklahoma?
- Chad Wilkerson
- Oklahoma City Branch Executive
- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
- 2. I. The U.S. Industrial Structure of the Future
- 3. The structure of the U.S. economy will change over the next
5-10 years. Why?
- The short answer is:
- 4. The longer answer includes several inter-related factors:
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- Changing consumer tastes
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- Increasing globalization
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- Changing workforce skills
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- Technological improvements
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- 5.
- The latest projections go through 2014 and were finalized in late 2005.
- Obviously no one knows exactly.
- One respected source is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose economists do detailed 10-year projections of industrial and occupational employment every other year.
- 6. 15 U.S. industries projected to ADD jobs the fastest through
2014*
- * Among industries with more than 100,000 employees
- 7. 15 U.S. industries projected to SHED jobs the fastest
through 2014*
- * Among industries with more than 100,000 employees
- 8. II. Industrial Structure and Future Oklahoma Job and Income Growth
- 9.
- In addition, states with favorable industrial structures tend to grow even faster than one would expect, due to spillover growth to other industries.
- Research suggests about 15-20 percent of the variation in state job growth rates over 10-year periods can be explained by industrial structure.
- 10. Annual employment growth, 2004-2014 if states industries grow at projected national rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1.30%-1.50% 1.20%-1.29% 1.11%-1.19% 0.98%-1.10%
- 11. The 10 industries contributing the most to differences between OK and US projections Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Small Positive Semiconductor & electronic mfg. 10 Large Negative Support activities for mining 9 Large Negative Federal government 8 Small Negative Educational services 7 Large Negative Nonagriculture self-employed workers 6 Large Positive Employment services 5 Small Positive Cut and sew apparel mfg. 4 Small Negative Computer systems design 3 Large Negative Oil and gas extraction 2 Large Negative Agricultural products (grain, livestock) 1 Presence? Contribution? Industry or Small Negative Due to Large Positive or
- 12. Oklahoma City is projected to have a higher share of the long-term job growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent
- 13. The net effect of expected changes in the mix of jobs is to raise average salaries in OK Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 14. U.S. and Oklahoma job growth is projected to be fastest among high-paying occupations Projected Annual Job Growth by Average Pay Through 2012 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 15. III. Meeting Oklahomas Future Workforce Needs
- 16. From 1994-2004, OK met its employment demand largely by population growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Average annual growth in employment and working age population, 1994-2004 Percent
- 17. but also by increased labor force participation Oklahoma United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 18. Meeting future job demand could be a little tougher Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau Projected annual growth in employment and working age population, 2004-2014 Percent
- 19. Non-metro Oklahoma may have an advantage: an untapped labor supply Source: U.S. Census Bureau
- 20. Oklahoma must ensure potential workers obtain the training necessary to succeed Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 21. Oklahomas share of college graduates is slightly lower than in the U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
- 22. Conclusions
- The industrial structure of the United States is expected to continue to change in the years ahead
- Oklahomas intermediate-term outlook for jobs and incomes, based on industrial structure, is slightly less favorable than the nations
- A challenge for Oklahoma heading forward will be finding and training the workers needed to fill the jobs of the future