the changing trend in ssa’s fertilizer market: …...• fertilizer subsidy programs (no exit...

The Changing Trend in SSA’s Fertilizer Market: Commodity to

Balanced Fertilizers

GPCA Fertilizer Convention

26th September, 2019

Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA)

• 44/52 countries characterized with different levels

if development and systems of government

• Projected population growth to 1.7 billion to 2030

(20% of global population)

• Persistent issues:

• Food insecurity

• Low crop productivity

• Economic migration

• Opportunity

• 2% of global fertilizer consumption

• Untapped natural resources

• International investment

Government

Private Sector

NGO’S

Inv

olv

em

en

t

0 %

100 %

Country

Notes

Ethiopia Ghana Tanzania Mali Nigeria Kenya South Africa

Driven by

Govt. tendersGovt. subsidy BPSGovt. Cotton

Tenders

PFI

Urea Manu.

Strong Private

SecPrivate Sec.

driven

Sub-Sahara Africa Fertilizer Market

Historically a commodity

market attributed to:

• Govt. involvement

(subsidies)

• Low consumption rates

• Limited capital investment

• Limited ability to get an

ROI

Fertilizer Trade in ESA: Commodity to Balanced Fertilizers

HS Code Fertilizer Name 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3105300000 DAP 273,939 144,450 127,672 207,973 261,939

3102400000 CAN 101,201 87,900 99,120 111,654 198,806

3105200000 NPK 129,540 136,880 166,342 151,334 186,377

3105510000 NP Compounds 20,853 35,594 65,295 46,542 87,383

3102100000 Urea 114,515 25,117 43,584 75,955 66,720

Others fertilizers 49,983 64,779 54,419 66,377 53,820

Total (mt) 690,032 494,720 556,432 659,835 855,045


3105200000 Total NPK 129,540 136,880 166,342 151,334 186,377

3105510000 Total NP 20,853 35,594 65,295 46,543 87,383

3105700000 Total NK 466 3 - 24 -

3105600000 Total PK 23 1,610 365 131 197

3105900000 NPK (Unknown Grade) 1,442 800 1 445 -

Total (mt) 152,324 174,887 232,003 198,476 273,957


3102100000 Urea 150,000 300,000 363,539 346,200 294,000

3105300000 DAP 250,000 250,000

3105510000 NP Compounds 100,000 230,702 561,500 579,630 628,132

3104200000 MOP 2,682 33,010

Others 14,230

Total (mt) 500,000 797,614 958,049 925,830 922,132


3105510000 NP 18.9 37.7 0 + 6.95S + 0.1B 55,000 288,000 448,714

3105510000 NP 19 38 0 + 7S 100,000 230,702 446,500 237,200 252,033

3105510000 NPSZnB 74,486

3105510000 NP 17.7 35.5 0 + 7.6S + 2.2Zn 60,000 54,430 18,052

Total (mt) 100,000 230,702 561,500 579,630 793,285

80% in

NPKs

48 types

DAP to

NPS

Fertilizer Trade WA: Commodity to Balanced Fertilizers


3102100000 Urea 188,492 171,550 132,565 252,745 395,583

3104200000 MOP 60,908 66,071 54,180 106,633 153,659

3105400000 MAP 94,247 57,133 58,146 120,767 120,776

3102210000 Ammonium sulphate 57,146 55,279 18,897 57,915 98,337

3105300000 DAP 5,384 3,875 4,604 39,508 69,300

3105200000 NPK 46,351 95,283 57,065 28,322 39,589


Total (mt) 475,962 461,027 327,835 651,575 910,524


3105200000 NPK 294,980 344,879 165,684 380,455 399,949

3104200000 MOP 13,921 13,721 408 3,683 121,846

3105300000 DAP - - 5,500 5,250 102,770

3105510000 NP compounds 87,988 68,535 47,986 115,845 96,984

3102210000 Ammonium sulphate 12,301 2,321 10,483 27,450 40,248

3102100000 Urea 598,616 291,966 120,346 21,013 12


Total (mt) 1,013,959 742,216 417,976 593,994 804,093

Locally blended

• NPK 14-18-18 + 6S + 1B

• NPK 16-26-12 + 4,5S + 0,3Zn

• NPK 15-15-15 plus

• NPK 17-17-17 plus

• NPK 17-17-17 + 4S plus

• NPK 10-15-20 + 5S + 0,3Zn + 0,02B

Locally blended (Urea based) from late 2018~(PFI)

• NPK 15 15 15

• NPK 20 10 10

• NPK 27 13 13

• NPK 12 12 17 + MgO

Fertilizer Import Source

Fertilizer Manufacturing and Processing facilities in SSA

• Processing facilities-52

(granulation and physical

blenders).

• Some granulation plants

decommissioned due to flexibility

• Nigeria- 15+ blenders came

online in 2018, urea based blends

• Manufacturer flexibility to

produce improved base for blends

• Processing capacity at

approximately 20% (except

Nigeria)

Fertilizer Production in SSA

• Nitrogen capacity: 2 producers in

Nigeria.

• Ammonia production in ESA: all

imported by NCZ and Sable Chemical

• Phosphate capacity- 5 producers. 1

imports RC for SSP production

• Potash capacity: No production

• Exports: +700Kt of Urea

Zambia

Senegal

Nigeria

Tanzania

Notore Chemicals Industries

River State

400,000mtpy Urea

Kel Chemicals

Thika

200,000mt of SSP

Minjingu Mines & Fertilizer

Company, Minjingu

100,000mtpy of Rock Phosphate &

NPK

Nitrogen Chemicals on Zambia

Kafue

100,000mtpy NPK &

64,000mtpy Ammonium

Nitrate*

Sable Chemicals

Industries

Kwekwe

240,000mtpy Ammonium

Nitrate

Zimbabwe Phosphate

Industries

Harare

150,000mtpy Rock Phosphate,

45,000mtpy TSP, 200,000mtpy

SSP

International Raw Materials

Toamasina

180,000mtpy Ammonium

Sulphate

Indorama Eleme Fertilizers

River State

1,500,000mtpy Urea

Société Nouvelle des Phosphates du

Togo

Kpeme

300,000mtpy Rock Phosphate

Togo

Zimbabwe

Kenya

Madagasca

r

Indorama Eleme Fertilizers/ (ICS)

Dakar


Societe d’Études et de Réalisation des

Phosphates

Matam


Fertilizer Market Development 2016-2022

Algeria

Morocco

Senegal

Nigeria

Gabon

South Africa

Tanzania

Libya Egypt

Tunisia

Republic of

Congo

Eritrea

Ethiopia

2.3 MT on line late 2015

3.6 MT total capacityOCP

Increase of 10 MMT of granulation

capacity between 2013 and 2020

Indorama

0.8M MT and 1.5M MT, P (2016)

Notore: 0.5M MT plant

Dangote: 2.8M MT plant, N (2020)

Indorama: 1.4 M MT plant, N (2021)

Kore Potash

2.2MT/yr potash.

Completed DFS 2019.

looking at

development options

Urea production to increase by 1.8

million tons to 7.1 mill tons by 2020

Danokali Potash- SOP/MOP—

Feed Completed. Pilot funding

Yara decision pending on

0.6MT SOP-2019

Decision still pending

Ferrostaal / Topsoe / Fauji

1.3M MT N plant (2021)

Stalled on gas Price 2018)

Yara –1.4 Mt .

Assessment stage— Gas

price issues

OCP NPK/Urea Ammonia

complex. 1.2MT/yr urea, 1.6 MT

NP/NPK Conceptual study

completed

Waiting on Gas development

OCP-1.4 MT urea

Plant. Conceptual

study being

undertaken now

Stamicarbon/Siemens/Sowitec—

small scale CAN plant-Kenya --

prefeasibility

2010 Supply sources

2019 New Supply

sources

LEGEND

Kenya

CIV

Optimistic Scenario-2030

Current Africa Population (million) 1,200

SSA Population (million) 1,700

Cereals needs (million Mt) 340

Nutrient requirements cereals (kg NPK/Mt cereals) 40

Nutrient demand cereals (million(Mt) 13.6

Nutrient demand non-cereals (million(Mt) 2.7

Total nutrient demand (million Mt) 16.5

Hiccups in the SSA Economy

• Forex availability and Exchange variation in currency

value (exchange controls) e.g. Ethiopia, Zimbabwe,

Malawi and Nigeria

• Positive: drive for local manufacture

• Negative: Black markets, limited investment

• Fertilizer Subsidy programs (no exit strategy)

• Fertilizer product policies and regulations e.g.

product registration

• Port inefficiencies and high logistics costs along the

value chain ($40 intl. freight vs $80-100 local freight)

• Insecurity (Nigeria)

the changing trend in ssa’s fertilizer market: …...• fertilizer subsidy programs (no exit...

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