The Changing Population of Texas

BP Business Leaders November 8, 2012

Austin, TX

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Growing States, 2000-2010

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population

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Percent Change Due to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangePercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011

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Components of population change, Texas, 1950-2009

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000

2000-09 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Net MigrationNatural Increase

5

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to 2001

2001 to 2002

2002 to 2003

2003 to 2004

2004 to 2005

2005 to 2006

2006 to 2007

2007 to 2008

2008 to 2009

International

State-to-State

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009

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Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend

-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 %

6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

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Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

Legend

0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

8http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

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States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010

State Estimate (thousands)

Range

California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750)

Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850)

Florida 825 (725 - 950)

New York 625 (525 - 725)

New Jersey 550 (425 - 650)

Illinois 525 (425 - 625)

Georgia 425 (300 - 550)

Arizona 400 (275 - 500)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).

6.5% of Texas’ 2010 Population

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Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

White M Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other M White FHispanic F Black F Asian F Other F

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

16Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

White Male White Female

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

17Under 1 year

4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other M Hispanic F Black F Asian F Other F

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

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Total Population by County, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10

82 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,001

100,001 - 500,001

500,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 - 4,100,000

?? 85%

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Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

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Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010

Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010

-20%-0%

1%-10%

10.1-25%

25.1%-50%

50.1%-82%

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

$18,000-30,000

$ 30,000-35,000

$ 35,000-40,000

$40,000-50,000

$ 50,000-76,000

Median Household Income by County, 2006-2008

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample 2006-200821

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20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

205020,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

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Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

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Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F5

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251-500%

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Educational Attainment in Texas, 2010

Level of Educational Attainment

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older

State Ranking

High school diploma or equivalency

or greater80.7% 49/50 (tied

with CA)Bachelors or greater 25.9% 31

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010.

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040

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Demographics and Destiny

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Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.