4th Generation WarDr. T. X. Hammes Institute for National Strategic Studies
National Defense University
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Purpose
What drives changes in character of conflict What is driving change today Potential of new technologies Implications of changes
Will focus on the bad!
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Unchanging Nature Violence, chance, and reason Friction Inevitable in any activity involving people
Fog Seeing is not understanding Understanding is NOT universal
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evolve?
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Economic Political Social Technical
“Military institutions and the manner in which they employ Violence depended on the economic, social and political conditions of their respective states.”
On War, Clausewitz, Paret translation, pg. 6.
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Warfare is evolving
Widespread agreement What it will be – continuing disagreement Three theoretical paths High tech state versus state Non-state versus state or non-state Hybrid Warfare
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transnational entities Deglobalization??
Social = Passion Nationalism Religion Ethnic identity
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High tech Surrogates
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Hybrid Model
Not new – Napoleonic and World Wars Very useful Highlights range of challenges Conventional, irregular, terror, crime
Need to manage them simultaneously Different than “measures short of war”
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Nano-explosives Limited Artificial Intelligence Robotics/drones 3D Printing Hypervelocity
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Flexrotor 1,500 miles
$200,000
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Drones + AI Harpy – 400 miles Harop - 600 miles 55 lbs Autonomous Visual, IR, EMS Launcher < $500K per drone
10 years old – operational in 6 nations
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Drones + AI XQ-58A (QX222) 1500 miles – 600 lbs Autonomous VTOL $2M
Boeing/RAAF “Loyal Wingman”
$10-12M
Mass Launch Drones
Directed Energy: Lasers and Microwave Advantage to land-based defense Massive power generation advantage Concealment
Weakness Lasers - smoke, haze, reflective coatings Microwave – Faraday cages; hardened
electronics
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Hypersonics Boost glide Hypersonic cruise missile DoD fielding hypersonic cannon rounds Range 50 miles, standard cannons KE = ½ mv2
Army – 1,000 km cannon Will revolutionize kinetic warfare
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Boost-Glide
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Implications of small, smart, cheap
versus few and exquisite
Conventional – Ground Domain
Defense becomes dominant Range increases to 1,000 miles Mass reappears 10,000 dumb swarm is doable today All signatures can be hit Dispersed 20 foot containers/pods that can
operate independently or as networks
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Conventional – Sea Domain
Small states and insurgents challenge navies Drones vs. ships for mission kills Underwater weapons – sink ships Smart, self-deploying mines
Weapons not platforms Value of platform = Weapons delivered
before out of action
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Missile Merchant 40,000 DWT Container ship = $40M $85M to convert 40-50 Missiles Easily expandable
Crew: 30 160 MM = 1 CV and Air wing 8,000 missile tubes / 4,800 crew
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Conventional – Air Domain
Attack 4th/5th generation aircraft and key enablers (C2, tankers) on the ground Strike logistics & C2 nodes Evolved cruise missiles and drones take over many missions?
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F-35A
Chart1
F-35A
800
Alternatives F-35: $88M, $65K per hour, 9% FMC XQ-58A: $2M, 1500 miles, VTOL 1 F35A or 44 Kratos Drones procurement Long term – 200? No pilots Reduced maintenance crew No airfield Survivable on ground
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Conventional – Cyber Domain
Nodes vulnerable to precision strike Everyone lies If succeed, don’t admit it Claim success for others work If penetrated, don’t admit
Historical precedence
Subset of Cyber for U.S. EMP drone
Russia – Ukraine – jam radios, control drones Syria – jam radios, drones (to include US)
China – SSF – Space, Cyber, EW Most closely guarded
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Transition pattern Historical pattern Helper – Partner – Replacement Musket to pike; battleship to carrier Manned A/C to cruise missiles/drones Helper – Gulf War I – IADS suppression Partner – Gulf War II/Afghanistan Replacement –
strike vs heavily defended Long-endurance missions
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Autonomy Range Mass returns Survivability – on ground Tactical defense is dominant? Sustained power projection costs?
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Strategic Implications
Shift of power to smaller entities Inflict much higher costs for great power
aggression Small nations benefit; non-states more so
Critical military functions remain National mobilization possible/required?
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Big Questions
Do small, smart, many dominate the few and exquisite? Are we buying the wrong stuff? Will land forces come to dominate all domains? Implications for joint/combined forces?
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Slide Number 2
Purpose
UnderlyingNATURE OF WARdoes not change,CHARACTER OF WARchanges continually
Unchanging Nature
Key Question -
Warfare is evolving
What we got
Catalysts are changing
Evolution will continue
SmallExplosivelyFormed Projective
Hypersonics
Boost-Glide
Hypersonic impact on deterrence
Implications ofsmall, smart, cheapversusfew and exquisitein Conventional conflicts
Conventional – Ground Domain
Conventional –Sea Domain
Alternatives
Strategic Implications
Big Questions
Contact Information