SustainTech 2018, 22 March 2018, Saskatoon

Evaluating climate risks and developing adaptation strategies

to manage risk and take advantage of a warming climate -

examples from and for business

Dave Sauchyn, PhD, PGeo; Professor of Geography and Environmental Studies,

University of Regina

The challenges currently posed by climate change

pale in significance compared with what might come

[…] Once climate change becomes a defining issue

for financial stability, it may already be too late.”

Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman

of the G20’s Financial Stability Board.

global warming

climate variability

climate risks

climate opportunities

climate change denial

carbon capture and storage

carbon tax

governance

oversight responsibility

adaptive capacity

coping strategy

Framing Climate Change

natural infrastructure

extreme weather

vulnerability

global warming

climate variability

climate risks

climate opportunities

climate change denial

carbon capture and storage

carbon tax

governance

oversight responsibility

adaptive capacity

coping strategy

Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure

extreme weather

vulnerability

global warming

climate variability

climate risks

climate opportunities

climate change denial

carbon capture and storage

carbon tax

governance

oversight responsibility

adaptive capacity

coping strategy

Framing Climate Change natural infrastructure

extreme weather

vulnerability

Business risk from climate change now top of mind for Canada’s corporate boards Globe and Mail, November 22, 2017

Business leaders face many questions with the impacts of climate change Globe and Mail, March 9, 2018

Climate change is a business problem Financial Times, May 24, 2014

More Than 900 Examples Of How Climate Change Affects Business Forbes, March 15, 2017

Four Reasons Climate Change Adaptation Should be on Every Executive's Radar Network for Business Sustainability, September 28, 2017

Carney's Climate Fight Gets $6.3 Trillion Boost From Firms Bloomberg, December 12, 2017

FEI Canada is the all industry professional membership

association for senior financial executives

Climate Change as a Business Issue

In 1998, the federal government

proposed a Canadian Climate Impacts

and Adaptation Research Network

and a physical node where the effects of

climate are significant and where some

adaptation research capacity and

coordination already exists.

Canada’s First Regional Climate Service

On March 24, 2000, Minister of Natural Resources, Ralph Goodale,

announced the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative,

Canada’s first regional climate center - a partnership of the

governments of Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Including some some major initiatives

($100K to > $2M over 2-5 years):

• C-CIARN Prairies, 2000-2006: NRCan

• Manitoba Hydro Research Chairs, 2003-06

• Climate Change Scenarios, Vulnerability and Impacts Assessment,

2004-2008: GoA

• Biophysical Impact Assessment / SaskAdapt, 2006-10: GoS

• Prairies Chapter of the National Assessment, 2006-08: NRCan

• Phase 1 of the Prairies RAC, 2008-11: NRCan

• Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes (VACEA), 2011-16:

NSERC, SSHRC, IDRC

• South Saskatchewan River Basin Adaptation Project, 2011-16:

WaterSMART Solutions / NSERC

• Urban Water Management in the Context of Climate Change, 2013-15:

EPCOR, City of Calgary, AB Innovates

• Water Resources Challenges in a Changing Climate, 2013-2017: ECCC

More than 100 PARC Research Projects

More than 400 inquiries from government agencies, communities, and

public and professional organizations, for example:

• Conference Board of Canada

• Town of Viking, AB

• AB Epidemiology Association

• SK Federal Council

• Industrial Vegetation

Management Assoc of AB

• AB Agriculture and Rural

Development

• Consulting Engineers of SK

• Engineers Canada

• Canadian Institute of Public

Health Inspectors

• MB Hydro

• National Roundtable on

Environment and Economy

• Prairie Provinces Water Board

• APEGGA

• Swift Current Creek Watershed

Stewards

• SK Soil Conservation Assoc

• City of Grande Prairie, AB

• Prairie Improvement Network

• Old Wives Watershed Assoc

• SK Environmental Industry

Managers Assoc

• SK Institute of Agrology

• Prairie Conservation Action Plan

• Parkland Conservation Farm

• Agricultural Service Boards of

Alberta

• Red River Basin Commission

• Kanai Blood Indian Tribe

• MB Conservation

• AB Lake Management Society

• Western Boreal Growth and Yield

Association

• SE AB Watershed Alliance

• Pacific NW Economic Region

• Mountain Parks Heritage

Interpretation Association

• Climate Change Central

• Royal SK Museum

• Partners for the SK River Bain

• Bow River Basin Council

• APEGS

• Grande Prairie Chamber of

Conference

• Sturgeon River Watershed Alliance

• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

• SK Ministry of Advanced Education

• National Council of Women

• SK Irrigation Projects Assoc

• Society for Range

Management

• Transportation Assoc of

Canada

• AB Caucus - House of

Commons

• Yorkton Aircraft Service

• Sierra Club

• AB Irrigation Projects Assoc

• Canadian Institute of Forestry

• Rotary Club of Canmore

• International Mountaineering

Federation

• SK Forest Centre

• Agency Chiefs Tribal Council

• Model Forests

• Banff Town Council

• Files Hills Qu’Appelle Tribal

Council

• Trans Canada Corporation

• Taber, AB

• SaskPower

• TransGas Limited

January 2018 was the 397th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average

Above

average

Below

average

Te

mp

era

ture

An

om

aly

(°

C)

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201801

PAGES2k Consortium. 2017. A global multi-proxy database for

temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Nature Scientific Data

Average Minimum Daily Winter Temperature (°C), Regina, SK, 1900-2018

GCM: Global Climate Model

RCM:

Regional

Climate

Model

GCM and RCM grids

Projected Climate Changes, Western Canada

1971-2000 versus 2040-2069

Tem

pera

ture

Change (∘C

)

Precipitation Change (%)

summer

winter

Much Warmer

and Wetter

Warmer

Possibly Drier

Source: PCIC

Climate Moisture Index Anomaly (mm), May-June-July, western Canada

From 11 RCMs

wettest driest

Projected Climate Changes in Winter

Tem

pera

ture

Change (∘C

)

Precipitation Change (%)

winter

Source: PCIC

Projected Climate Changes, CGCM3, from 1961-90 to 2040-69 Te

mp

era

ture

Ch

an

ge

(∘C

)

Precipitation Change (%)

July 23-29, Aug 20 & 30

Mean Water Year Flow (m3/s) South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat, 1108-2010

North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, 1063-2006

1063 2006

SW Saskatchewan September 2015

“In order to expand The

City’s understanding of

historical drought

conditions it is important

to reevaluate historical

drought using tree ring

analysis historically

conducted by the David

Sauchyn (University of

Saskatchewan [sic])”

Address Information Gaps:

The South Saskatchewan River Basin - Adaptation to Climate Variability –

Phases 1-3

Peach-Athabaca River Basin Adaptation to Climate Variability

March 2007:

Traditional planning would consider flow

characteristics of the raw water streams as

“knowns” in the system. [ … that is, a stationary

climate and water regime]

EPCOR Utilities Ltd provides water supply and wastewater

treatment to 85 communities in western Canada

On May 2nd [1796] William Tomison wrote to James Swain that

furs could not be moved as, “there being no water in the river.”

Sauchyn and Ilich, 2017, WRR

900 years of weekly flows, North Saskatchewan River W

ate

r-Y

ear

Flo

w (

m3/s

)

Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Municipal

Source Water Supply

L. Gyurek, S. Craik, & S. Neufeld, EPCOR Water Services Inc.

… a better understanding of natural hydroclimatic variability in

surface waters, water utilities including EPCOR are revisiting

this assumption of a static water supply. Specifically

EPCOR supported collaborative research with the Prairie

Adaptation Research Collaborative … a thousand year

record of hydroclimatic variability … This work will allow

EPCOR to better assess future risks to water supply and

quality and develop risk mitigation strategies.

Canadian Association on Water Quality Conference, 21 February 2012, Burlington ON

Neufeld (2016)

December 2014: Source Water Protection Plan

To address potential impacts of climate change on water

supply, EPCOR partnered with Prairie Adaptation

Research Collaborative (PARC) …

Understanding that water resources are not a stationary,

water management must be adjusted to a hydrological cycle

which is increasingly sensitive to the timing and frequency of

rainfall events. PARC is continuing to work with EPCOR to

refine predictions and probabilities of water flow on a monthly

basis in order to inform planning.

Long-term variability and reliability of the flow of the Athabasca River

Sauchyn, DJ, St Jacques, J-M, Luckman, BH. 2015 Long-term

reliability of the Athabasca River (Alberta, Canada) as the water

source for oil sands mining, Proceedings of the National Academy

of Sciences, vol. 112 no. 41, 12621-12626,

DOI10.1073/pnas.1509726112

We would like to use your tree rings “to inform

future stages of planning of a proposed oil

sands mining project”

Teck, which has not committed to building the

mega-mine [260,000 barrels of oil per day],

has pegged the cost of Frontier at roughly

$20.6-billion (Globe and Mail, 9 July 2015)

Hydroclimatic Scenarios for Proposed $20.6B Frontier Mine

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Wee

kly

Flo

w A

va

ila

ble

to

th

e In

du

stry

(m³/

s)

Probability of Exceedance (%)

Historical (1958-2013)

Synthetic (3000 years)

Tree ring (532 years)

Climate Change, (Year 2026)

Climate Change, (Year 2066)

Long et al. 2016

*

* Canada’s largest diversified mining company

Estimated water demand for solution potash production

Solution mine million m3/yr Water supply Watershed

Operating mines:

Belle Plaine 26.0 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River

Patience Lake n/a Patience Lake South

Saskatchewan River

K + S 15.5 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River

Approved developments:

Wynyard n/a Blairmore Formation Qu’Appelle River

Milestone 21.9 Regina wastewater

treatment plant

Qu’Appelle River

Vale 21.0 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River

Southey max 14.5 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River

Developments under review:

Muskowekwan 13.1 Buffalo Pound Lake Qu’Appelle River

• Canada is the primary

potash producer and

exporter.

• 96% of Canadian

potash is produced in

Saskatchewan by 11

mines.

• 9 new projects:

All, but one,

solution method;

6 approved;

1 mine started its

operation in May.

• 7 expansion projects.

• Water use:

2010: 22M m3

2060: 127M m3

Potash Mining

Andreichuk. 2017

42

Our Society • Urban • Rural • Indigenous Our Environment • Water Resources • Ecosystem Services Our Economy • Costing Impacts and Adaptation • Economic Sector Perspectives Looking Forward • International Dimensions • New and Emerging Issues

• British Columbia • Prairies* • Ontario • Quebec • Atlantic Provinces • Northern Canada

Canada in a Changing Climate - Regional

Perspectives

Canada in a Changing Climate- National

Issues

Canada in a Changing Climate:

Assessing the Knowledge for Action

2020 Release Date

* Dr. D. Sauchyn, Lead Author

A new approach includes:

44

• Key messages: to focus chapters on priority issues

• Multiple products released throughout the process;

include writing for multiple audiences

• More inclusive and transparent process – input from

stakeholders and public

• Inclusion of Indigenous knowledge (guidance to be

provided)

• Early and sustained engagement of amplifier

organizations; collaborative process and products

• All writing and figures developed for digital delivery

Resilient

Vulnerable Time

For more information:

The Prairie Adaptation Research

Collaborative was created in 2000, as a

partnership of the governments of

Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and

Alberta.

www.parc.ca

sauchyn@uregina.ca