the challenge of skilling india for global competitiveness bornali … · 76% literate and.. 44.6...
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The Challenge of
Skilling India for Global
Competitiveness
Bornali Bhandari New Delhi
July 12, 2016
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Outline
• Program Description
• What is Skills?
• Measuring Skills
– Supply Indicators
– Demand Indicators
• Challenges to the Skilling Story
• The 3-E Challenge
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Program Description
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Program Description
• NCAER Labour Economics Research Observatory and New Skills at Work launched
• 2 years and 3 phases
• Phase 1: A Review
– Literature Review
– Secondary Data Analysis
• Phase 2: Baseline survey of skills in Delhi of education, employment and employability
– Why Delhi?
• Mix of Manufacturing and Services in the NCR Region
• Phase 3: Baseline survey of skills of Urban India
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Program Objectives
• Baseline of skills based on a large nationally representative survey
– Employers Survey
– Employees
• Need to measure cognitive skills, socio-emotional skills, and job-relevant
• Potentially benchmark India against other countries
• Identify job-relevant skills and policies and institutions to enhance job mobility and job matching
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What is Skills?
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What is Skills?
• Green (2013) defines Skills as personal qualities with three key features:
– Productive: using skills at work are productive of value
– Expandable: skills are enhanced by training and development
– Social: skills are socially determined
– Excludes qualities relevant to domestic labour, leisure time, or activities as citizens – indirectly connected to paid work
– Attributes that cannot by their nature be enhanced are not considered as Skills
– Economist – cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Both equally important.
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Skills Measurement
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Skills Supply Indicators
• Green (2013)
– Years of Education
– Educational Qualifications or Certificates
– Literacy, numeracy and other tests
– Self-assessed Skills
– Behavioural Indicators
This we can measure
Started the Process
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76% literate and..
44.6
30.1
1.4
15.6
3.6
Distribution of Literate Population as per Education Level, 2011
Literate but belowmatric/secondary
Matric/secondary butbelow graduate
Technical diploma orcertificate not equal todegree
Graduate and above otherthan technical degree
Technical degree ordiploma equal to degree orpost-graduate degree
Source: Census 2011
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86.7% main workers, 77.4%
marginal workers literate and..
32.8
31.2
2.3
22.6
5.9
Distribution of Literate Main Workers as per Education Level, 2011
Literate but belowmatric/secondary
Matric/secondary butbelow graduate
Technical diploma orcertificate not equal todegree
Graduate and above otherthan technical degree
Technical degree ordiploma equal to degree orpost-graduate degree
Source: Census 2011
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National Skills Quality
Framework
Levels (1-10) 2
Process
Prepares person to/carry out processes that are repetitive, on a regular basis, with little application of understanding, more of practice.
Professional Knowledge Material, tools and applications in a limited context, understands context of work and quality.
Professional Skill
Limited service skills used in limited context; select and apply tools; assist in professional works with no variables; differentiate good and bad quality.
Core Skill
Receive and transmit written and oral messages, basic arithmetic, personal financing, understanding of social, political, and religious diversity, hygiene and environment.
Responsibility No responsibility; works under instruction and close supervision.
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Qualifications Pack –Occupational
Standards for Capital Goods Industry
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Course Materials for Welding
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Skills Demand Indicators
• Green (2013)
– Occupational Classification in Major Groups
– Wage Rate
– Domain/subject of training and education requirement
– Occupation Classification at 4-digit or higher level measures occupation specific job skills – O*NET
– Prior Education, Training, and Experience Levels Required to do Jobs
– Generic tasks performed
– Domain/subject of training and education requirement
These we can measure
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ASPIRATIONS
Challenges
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Education Aspirations of Chief
Wage Earners
All-India
Distribution of
CWE Satisfied
Illiterate 26.8 42.1
literate but without formal schooling 3.6 40
up to 4th standard 8.3 44.6
primary (completed 5th–7th) 15.5 48.4
middle(completed 8th–9th) 16.2 51.9
matric (completed 10th–11th) 14.3 62.5
higher secondary (12th) 6.8 67.2
technical / diploma/ vocational 1.2 81.4
graduate 5.1 83.7
post–graduate 1.7 87.7
professional & higher research degrees 0.6 95.4
Total 100 53.1
Source: NCAER-NSHIE 2010-11
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Returns to investment in education
and skill or perceptions
• Delhi Distribution of CWE Satisfied
Illiterate 7 66.3
literate but without formal
schooling 1.6 64
up to 4th standard 2.1 80.2
primary (completed 5th–
7th) 8.1 77.7
middle(completed 8th–9th) 13.2 80.5
higher secondary (12th) 14.3 93.5
technical / diploma/
vocational 1.4 96.6
Total 100 88.6
Source: NCAER-NSHIE 2010-11
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Aspiration for a Graduate degree
dominates
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
illiterate literate butwithoutformal
schooling
up to 4thstandard
primary middle matric highersecondary
Aspired Education level of Chief Wage Earners without a graduate/technical degree: All India, %
technical / diploma/ vocational graduate/professional and above
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61.% of CWEs are working in
occupations of their choice
05
10152025303540
Aspiration for Grade 4 Job with Regular Salary: Skilled vs. Unskilled (all-India), %
Regular salary - Grade 4 Unskilled Regular salary - Grade 4 Skilled
Source: NCAER-NSHIE 2010-11
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JOB CREATION
Challenges
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Decline in output elasticity of
employment
Source: Basu, D. and D. Das (2016). Employment Elasticity in India and the US, 1977-2011:
A Sectoral Decomposition Analysis. Economic and Political Weekly. Volume L1. No. 10. March 5.
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But what about post 2011, a time
of business uncertainty
Source: NCAER BES Surveys
-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0
0.020.040.060.080.0
100.0120.0140.0160.0
Ap
ril-
jun
e
july
-sep
oct
-dec
jan
-ma
rch
Ap
ril-
jun
e
july
-sep
oct
-dec
jan
-ma
rch
Ap
ril-
jun
e
july
-sep
oct
-dec
jan
-ma
rch
Ap
ril-
jun
e
july
-sep
oct
-dec
jan
-ma
rch
Ap
ril-
Ju
ne
Ju
ly-S
ep
oct
-dec
jan
-ma
rch
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
IIP
(%
yo
y)
BC
I
NCAER Business Confidence Index and IIP (%y-o-y), 2011-12 to t0 2015-16
BCI IIP Manufacturing Growth Rate
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Labour Markets show few signs
of movement
0102030405060708090
Percentage of Respondents: Changes in Labour Employed over the Last Three Months, April 2007 to
April 2016
No change in skilled labour employed over the last three months
Increae in Skilled labour employed over the last three months
No change in unskilled labour employed over the last three months
Increase in unskilled labour employed over the last three months
Source: NCAER BES Surveys
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And hiring has been weak
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percentage of Respondents: Expected Changes in Labour Employed over the Next Six Months, April
2007 to April 2016
No expected change in skilled labour employed over the next six months
Expected increase in skilled labour employed over the next six months
No expected change in unskilled labour employed over the next six months
Expected increase in unskilled labour employed over the next six months
Source: NCAER BES Surveys
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The 3-E Challenge in India
Education
• Primary • Secondary • Higher Secondary • Tertiary
Employability
• Job-Relevant Skills • Technical Skills • Problem-Solving Skills • ICT Skills
• Inter-personal • Socio-emotional • Language and Communication Skills • Working in a multi-cultural and diverse environment
Employment
• Creation of Jobs • Incentivising People to take up Jobs • Informal Sector • Manufacturing vs. Services • Entrepreneurship
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Thank You!