the challenge of analyzing climate change impacts on the ... · • climate models auditing and...

SCARCE 2nd Annual Conference, Madrid, 28 November 2011 1

The challenge of analyzing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

- A perspective from the CLIMB project -

Ralf Ludwig & CLIMB partners

A collaborative research project under the 7th Framework Programme

Environment, incl. Climate Change (ENV)


Outline

Motivation

The CLIMB project

Framework

Work Packages

Case Studies

The CLIWASEC cluster


Motivation

Relative change in precipitation patterns – 2090-2099 vs. 1980-1999 (IPCC – WG1-AR4)

Relative change in annual runoff 2090-2099 vs. 1980-1999

(Milly et al. 2005)


Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean

Measurements and projections… from IPCC (2007)

• increased temperature, sea level rise, changing precipitation patterns and amounts

extended dry spells, increased drought risk

increased water demand (agriculture, population)

soil degradation and salinization…

Impacts on water resources management & key strategic sectors of regional economies

Impacts on Water (and Food) Security

Capacity to exacerbate tensions and conflict among social, ecological and economic actors

an EU Priority Theme


Emission Scenarios

Climate Modeling & Scenarios

Hydrological Models

Management Tools

Adaptation Strategies

Cumulative Uncertainty

Uncertainty in climate impact researchand adaptation

‚No data‘

SCARCE 2nd Annual Conference, Madrid, 28 November 2011

CLIMB – in a nutshell…

• CLimate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins –Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk

• funded under EU’s FP7 Environment Theme(Theme: Climate, Water & Security, ENV.2009.1.1.5.2)

• funding period 48 months (01/2010 – 12/2013)

• EC contribution: 3.15 Million €

• 19 beneficiaries

• 9 countries:EU – Austria, France, Germany, ItalySICA – Egypt, Palest. Adm. Areas, Tunisia, TurkeyOther – Canada


CLIMB – mission & objectives

• CLIMB is aiming to employ and integrate in a conceptual framework:

• advanced geophysical field monitoring techniques• remote sensing analyses and retrievals• climate models auditing and downscaling• integrated hydrologic modeling• socioeconomic factor assessment

to analyse ongoing and future climate induced changes in hydrological budgets and extremes

to link the changes in hydrological quantities to associated risks and threats to security

to quantify (reduce?) uncertainties in climate change impact analysis


CLIMB – case studies

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1) Thau – 280 km² - Coastal Lagoon - France

2) Rio Mannu – 473 km² -Sardinia, Italy

3) Chiba - 286 km² - Cap Bon – Tunisia

4) Noce - 1367 km² –Southern Alps – Italy

5) Izmit Bay – 673 km² -Kocaeli - Turkey

6) Nile Delta – 1000 km² -Nile - Egypt

7) Gaza Aquifer – 365 km² -Gaza – Palest.-admin. areas

Challenges (some key words):changes in water availability, runoff regimes, runoff extremes and water quality

high agricultural productivity, irrigation, heavy nutrient loads, pollution, salt water intrusion in near-coastal aquifers, multi-use water systems (consumption rivalries)


CLIMB – conceptual framework

Hydrological Model 1

Hydrological Model 2

Hydrological Model n

Hydrological Models

Audit &Uncertainty Assessment

GCM / RCM1

GCM / RCM2

GCM / RCMn

Climate Model Audit & Uncertainty Assessment

Study Site Characterization

Conventional data (soil, DEM, vegetation, water availability

and consumption etc.)

Remote Sensing

Geophysical Data Acquisition

Parameter retrieval &Data assimilation Risk Model

Vulnerability & Risk

Assessment

Socioeconomic Factor Assessment

Dissemination & Stakeholder Interaction(Questionairs, Web-GIS Server, Website)

Adapted Management


(2) Rio Mannu di San Sperate, Sardinia, Italy

(3) Chiba, Cap Bon, Tunisia

CLIMB – 2 case studies

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Stakeholder Meetings & Field Campaigns, AGRIS

CLIMB – Rio Mannu, Sardinia


Experimental Farm ‐ Azienda S. Michele

• 300 soil samples from 3 depths• lab analysis for bulk density, PSDI,

soil organic carbon content & pH values• Electric resistivity tomography• Gamma ray spectrometry & GPR

CLIMB – field campaigns (2010/2011)

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Hydrogeophysical measurements for the regionalisation of soil hydraulic properties

GPR and Gamma ray (Field campaign Sardinia, 10/2010)




CLIMB Soil Map for the Rio di Costara sub‐catchment (ca. 15 km²)



FAO vs. CLIMB Soil Map (based on 300 soil samples)for the Rio di Costara sub‐catchment



Spatiotemporal evapotranspiration pattern using FAO Soil Map



Spatiotemporal evapotranspiration pattern using CLIMB Soil Map



Spatiotemporal soil moisture pattern using FAO Soil Map



Spatiotemporal soil moisture pattern using CLIMB Soil Map


Stakeholder Meeting & Field Campaign, CERTE

CLIMB – Chiba, Tunisia


CLIMB – Chiba, Tunisia (June 2010)

Stakeholder Meeting & Field Campaign


Field campaign:- Geophysical Data Acquisition

(ERT, GPR, etc.)

- Remote Sensing Ground Truth(soil moisture, roughness, land use etc.)

Stakeholder meeting to present the project and discuss the major needs and expectations:

- intensive agriculture (+trend)- irrigation and overexploitation

of water resources- sea water intrusion in coastal

aquifers- deteriorating water quality



integrating geophysical data acquisition and remote sensing to:

- parameterize hydrological models

- interface hydrological surfaceand subsurface process descriptions

- adapt and couple hydrologicaland groundwater models forclimate change impact studies


CLIMB – uncertainty analysis – Chiba, Tunisia


Climate uncertainty study Parameter uncertainty study

Probability of not reaching critical soil water contents

increased

Probability of additional irrigation demands

increased

Can tomatoes be grown in Chiba basin

under climate change conditions?

Evaluation of model outputs

CLIMB – uncertainty analysis


www.climb-fp7.eu


The CLIWASEC cluster

Critical mass of45 Partners

CLIMB FP7-Topic: ENV.2009.1.1.5.2

Funding period: 01/2010 – 12/2013

Co-ordinator: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU, Germany)

Partners: 19 LMU (DE), AGRIS (IT), CAU (DE), CEMAGREF (FR), CERTE (TN), CINFAI (IT), CRS4 (IT), DLR (DE), FZJ (DE), GIT (TR), INRS (CA), Joanneum (AT), UA (FR), IUG (PS), UNIPD (IT), UNITN (IT), UZ (EG), VISTA (DE), BayFOR (DE)

CLICO FP7-Topic: SSH.2009.4.2.1

Funding period: 01/2010 – 12/2012

Co-ordinator: Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB-ICTA, Spain)

Partners: 14 UAB-ICTA (ES), UEA (UK), ECOLOGIC (DE), CSCW-PRIO (NO), HUJ (IL), SCU (EG), ETHZ (CH), CyI (CY), UOS (UK), UNU-EHS (DE), PHG (PS), CREAF (ES), IPSO (BE), AAU (ET)

WASSERMed FP7-Topic: ENV.2009.1.1.5.2

Funding period: 01/2010 – 12/2012

Co-ordinator: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambia- menti Climatici (CMCC, Italy)

Partners: 12 CMCC (IT), UNEXE (UK), CIHEAM-IAMB (Int.), CLU (IT), NTUA (GR), UPM (ES), NCARE (JO), PIK (DE), IRD (FR), ECRI-NWRC (EG), INAT (TN),


Objectives of the CLUSTER

• Scientific Synergy

Study Sites are comple-mentary in scope, region and scale

share informationand data

compare and integratemodel results:- GCM/RCM- hydrological- socio-economic

discuss progress andproblems on the WP level & during GAs

joint publications


• Policy Outreach

Study Sites are comple-mentary in scope, region and scale

Identify common stake-holder groups

Develop common ele-ments/media for dissemination

Produce common science-policy briefs on thematic priorities

Objectives of the CLUSTER


Defining and Implementing the Interfaces- integrate methods from natural and social sciences- propose common solutions for water resource management under CCC- finding complementary case studies

Bridging Scales- work focuses on various spatio-temporal scales (micro-, meso-, macro-) - transfer/regionalize findings from representative case studies to other regions

Reducing Uncertainties- identify the sources and quantify the magnitude of uncertainty- fusing methods and results to mitigate the levels of uncertainty

Implementing the CLUSTER

Challenges (for any comparable cooperation)


Challenge and Potential

The Nile Delta case study

© WASSERMed


Challenge and Potential

The Nile Delta case study


Conclusion for the CLIWASEC cluster

Findings & Recommendations towards Cooperation

Interfacing projects- great in theory – has some advantages to Large Scale Integrative Projects- not easy in practice (budgetary and time means must be ensured)- requires a clear concept from the very beginning (practically the Call)

Exchange of Data & Information- must be greatly improved between projects to avoid redundancy- data clearinghouse (!!)

Simplifying Cooperation…- more flexible funding mechanisms (e.g. COST, IRSES)- centralized integral workshops and seminars- downsize project administration


www.cliwasec.eu


Prof. Dr. Ralf LudwigCLIMB Co-ordinatorDepartment of GeographyLMU Munich, Germany

[email protected]

www.cliwasec.eu www.climb-fp7.eu

Thank you for your attention!


CLIMB – partners

• LMU Muenchen, Germany• AGRIS Sardegna - Agenzia per la Ricerca

de la Agricoltura, Italy• Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet zu Kiel,

Germany• Centre national du Machinisme Agricole,

du Genie Rural, des Eaux et des Forets, France

• Centre de Recherche et des Technologies des Eaux, Tunisia

• Consorzio Interuniversitario Nazionale per la Fisica delle Atmosfere e delle Idrosfere, Italy

• Centro di Ricerca, Sviluppo e Studi Superiori in Sardegna, Italy

• Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Germany

• Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Germany

• Gebze Yuksek Teknoloji Enstitusu, Turkey

• Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Canada

• Joanneum Research Forschungsgesell-schaft mbH, Austria

• Islamic University of Gaza, Palestinian-administered areas

• Università degli Studi di Padova, Italy• Università degli Studi di Trento, Italy• Zagazig University, Egypt• VISTA Geowissenschaftliche

Fernerkundung GmbH, Germany• Bayerische Forschungsallianz

gemeinnuetzige GmbH, Germany• Université Francois Rabelais du Tours,

France

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