The Census in American History…

Margo Anderson History & Urban StudiesUniv. of Wisconsin Milwaukee

53201margo@uwm.edu

June 10, 2010

The Census in American History…• A story of

success… Mostly…. And how census takers in the past dealt with the inevitable bumps in the road….

The Census is a ….

• Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life…

• Rare: – The 2010 Census is the 23rd in 220 years. – By comparison we’ve had 44 presidents, and 56

presidential elections. The 111th Congress is currently in session.

The Census is a ….

• Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life…

• Repeated: – Successfully every ten years since 1790, despite

wars, including the Civil War, economic crises, political turmoil.

The Census is a ….

• Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American political life…

• Unobtrusive:– Most people don’t remember the last one, the one

before that, the one before that…– Do you remember where you were on April 1, 2000,

April 1, 1990?– Compare that to September 11, 2001, or November

22, 1963, or December 7, 1941?

The Census also is….Janus faced

• It always looks both backwards to where the country has been and forward to where it’s going– in methods and the

questions asked,– the results,– and most clearly in the

reapportionment and redistricting of political power each decade

Outline of the Talk

• Census History: constitutional origins and functions

• Demographic history of US and implications of growth and change on the political system

• Administrative and Organizational History • Episodes in the past relevant to current issues.

I. Building the American State

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Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3

• Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

Importance of the Census

• The United States was the first nation in the history of the world to take a regular population census and use it to allocate seats in a national assembly according to population.

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Importance of the Census

• The U.S. has had one of the most demographically dynamic and diverse populations in the history of the world.

• The combination of the census as mechanism to adjust power and resources each decade, in conjunction with the demographic dynamism and diversity, made the census and the statistical system truly central to the functioning of the society and state

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Importance of the Census

• Dynamism is measured by patterns of population growth and change

• Diversity involves geographic diversity, group diversity, and different rates of change for different parts of the country, and among the groups.

• Hence three levels– Numerical growth– Geographic diversity– Racial and ethnic diversity

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Numerical Growth

From 3.9 million to 309 million: Growth

• 13 states have become 50 states.• House of Representatives grew from 65 to 435

members.• The average congressional district after the 2010

Census will be larger than the total population of any of the original 13 states in 1790.

• Growth has been differential: some states and local areas lose while others gain.

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1790

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Population Growth, 1790-2000

UK FR

US

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illi

on

s)

Admitting States to the Union

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Growth in the Size of the House of Representatives

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Differential Population Growth: New York State Population and House

Delegation, 1790-2010

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Projected Changes in House Seats after 2010

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StateHouse Seats

2000 2010 +/-Arizona 8 9 1Florida 25 26 1Georgia 13 14 1Iowa 5 4 -1Louisiana 7 6 -1Massachusetts 10 9 -1Michigan 15 14 -1Nevada 3 4 1New Jersey 13 12 -1New York 29 28 -1Ohio 18 17 -1Pennsylvania 19 18 -1Texas 32 35 3Utah 3 4 1

Projected House Seats

Geographic Diversity

Geographic Diversity: Westward Expansion

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Geographic Diversity: The First Gerrymander, 1812

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Racial and Ethnic Diversity

http://census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.htmlhttp:/www.census.gov

http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-4.pdf http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/white_a.pdfClick to see Table

Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171)Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page

Click to see Census 2000 Brief

http://www.census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/

http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-5.pdfhttp://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/black_a.pdfClick to see Table

Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171)Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page

Click to see Census 2000 Brief

http://www.census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/

http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/his_lat.pdfClick to see TableClick to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171)Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page

http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-3.pdfClick to see Census 2000 Brief

Civil War Demographic Map

Administrative and Organizational History

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Administrative History of the Census, 1790-1902

• From 1790 to 1902, a temporary agency in the Department of State (1790-1840) or Interior (1850-1902).

• From 1790-1870 the US marshals and their assistants served as the field staff.

• Over the years, Congress added the collection of agricultural, manufacturing, mortality, disability statistics to the decennial.

• A very large administrative operation during the census period, but administrative discontinuity.

• Congress considered proposals for a permanent census office but did not act on them until 1902.

Early Administrative Leadership

• State Department Era: Informal process, a “Clerk” appointed by the Secretary

• Interior Department Era:– A Superintending Clerk (1850-1870) position defined

in statute, appointed by the Secretary– A Superintendent of the Census (1880-1900) defined

in statute, appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate

• Administration of the Census was originally a young man’s job…

Appointed in 1849, at Age 36

James D.B. Debow, Appointed, 1853, at Age 33

Francis Amasa Walker, Appointed, 1869, at Age 29

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Technical Innovations in Census Taking

• 1850: The individual level census and the first full scale tabulation office in Washington

• 1890: Hollerith cards introduced machine tabulation of the census results

• 1930s: The Bureau sampling to measure unemployment• 1940: The Bureau introduced sampling into the decennial

census• 1940s: Statistical methods used for coverage

measurement estimates, a modified demographic analysis• 1950: UNIVAC computer processing of the census results

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Technical innovations…

• 1960: FOSDIC (film optic sensing device for input to computers) to replace keypunching

• 1960s: First PUMS files available• 1970: Mail census• 1980s: Building the TIGER/MAF system• 2000s: Introduction of ACS (American

Community Survey)

Problems of Census Administration

• The Constitutional language is silent on how to administer the census and how to apportion Congress.

• From Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3: – The actual Enumeration shall be made within

three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

Problems of Census Administration

• The growth of the country and recognition of the importance of the census led Congress, the political parties, the President, and the public scrutinize the census…..

• And to search for ways to take the census to support their political agenda

Solutions to the Problems…

• Statutory language defining the census and its methods

• The development of the science of statistics and survey research

• The growing administrative expertise of census officials

• The development of professional communities to articulate best practices

Example of Statutory Definition of Positions for Superintendent, Clerks, Copyists and

“Computers,” 1879

Example of Statutory Definition of Field Supervisors, 1879

Dilemmas…

• But….what if new issues arose?• Or there was no clear scientific solution?• Or if the political winds were simply too strong

to resist?

• Thus…the Bumps in the Road….

Examples of Bumps in the Road…

• The Emergence of the Confidentiality Standard• Addressing Fraudulent Enumeration and Error• Dueling Science• Manipulating Bureau Leadership

I. The Emergence of the Confidentiality Standard

• Nineteenth century census practice posted the individual schedules in the local area as a check on accuracy and completely

• By the mid nineteenth century, the public began to raise objections.

First Efforts at Setting the Standard

• Controlling Census Field Staff, 1880

Confronting Ambiguities

• After 1903, the permanent Census Office found itself faced with requests for individual level data from other agencies with the Department of Commerce and Labor.

• President Theodore Roosevelt’s political agenda involved “trust busting” – investigating and prosecuting corporations violating federal law.

• Question: Should census manufacturing returns be available to the Bureau of Corporations, another agency within the Department, charged with “trust busting”?

Confronting Ambiguities• Census officials resisted, and found that the Secretary

was not pleased. As Walter Willcox’ recalled:– “And, unless my memory or my information is at fault,

when the secretary [of Commerce and Labor] directed that the census schedules of manufacturing establishments should be open to the inspection of officials belonging to another bureau within the same department (the Bureau of Corporations) and the director [of the Census Bureau] refused to obey this order of his superior, because of the pledge of secrecy under which the information had been obtained, the matter was debated in the cabinet and the decision reached that the information on these schedules should not be so used by the government….”

Result of the Controversy

• Census officials convinced Congress to include statutory language in the 1910 Census law protecting individual level returns of manufacturing and commerce.

Result of the Controversy

• Edward Dana Durand, 1910 Census Director, initiated the first Presidential Census Proclamation which included a pledge that census responses could not be used for “taxation, regulation or investigation.”

Result of the Controversy• But…• …the Bureau suffered bureaucratically, as

plans for the agency to become the central statistical agency failed.

II. Fraudulent Enumerations, 1910

Solving the Problems of Fraudulent Enumeration

• From 1790-1900, the temporary census office had limited resources to resolve obviously flawed census results

• The officials knew such results existed, such as Omaha’s 1890 count.

Fixing the Problem in Tacoma

• In 1910, the agency had the capacity to challenge fraudulent results and weather the political storm

• Tacoma was recounted.• They did not yet have the

tools the measure error…

III. The 1920 Census and Apportionment

• Congress decided in 1910 to stop increasing the size of the House each decade

• The 1920 Census apportionment was a zero sum game

• Congress failed to pass a reapportionment law • Rural interests claimed the results were wrong• “Scientists” could not agree on an

apportionment method

Major Fractions vs. Equal Proportions

Major Fractions• First proposed in 1840 by

Daniel Webster• Used through 1910• Espoused by Walter Willcox,

former Chief Statistician, and in the 1920s, Professor at Cornell

Equal Proportions• First proposed by Joseph

Hill, Chief Statistician, 1911• Espoused by Edward V.

Huntington, Professor of Mathematics at Harvard.

Edward V. Huntington

Walter Willcox

Apportionment Methods

• Huntington convinced a National Academy of Sciences panel to support equal proportions

• Congress developed an automatic apportionment trigger to go into effect after the 1930 census, using “the last method,” which was major fractions

• After the 1940 Census, the results of the two methods differed. – Major fractions gave the 435th seat to MI, a Republican

state.– Equal Proportions gave the 435th seat to AR, a Democratic

state.

Apportionment Methods

• Congress rewrote the 1929 statute to mandate equal proportions. The method has been used ever since.

• The best current analysis of apportionment methods, Balinski and Young’s Fair Representation,” argues that the method is biased in favor of small states.

Bias in Apportionment Methods

IV. Influencing the Director … and the Census

• The statutory requirement of a presidential appointment and senate confirmation of the Census Director has remained since 1879.

• As a result, when the administration changes, the incumbent Census Director resigns.

• As the appointment appears on the presidential agenda, the census and the ongoing strength of the statistical system vie with political concerns of the administration and Congress.

Appointing the Director

• All political parties evaluate the appointment in political terms. – Republican example:

• Setting policy with a newly appointed Census Director in the Nixon administration, 1969

– Democratic example of an intraparty change: • Replacing William Lane Austin with J.C Capt in the

Roosevelt administration, 1939-1941

Nixon Administration, 1969

Nixon Administration

Roosevelt Administration

Director, 1933-1941Director, 1941-1949

Careers of Austin and CaptWilliam Lane Austin

• 1871: Born, Scott County, MS

• 1897-98, BA and law degree from U. of Mississippi

• 1900: Appointed clerk in Census Office

• 1917: Appointed chief statistician for agriculture

• 1933: Appointed Census Director

• 1941: Reached mandatory retirement age

J.C. Capt

• 1888, Born, Hays County, TX• 1905-07, Attended Baylor

University• 1917-1919, Served in Army in

WWI, discharged as Captain• 1919-1930, private sector• 1933-34, Field Rep, TX Relief

Commission• 1934, Appted to FERA, continued

in WPA• 1939: Appted Special Asst. to

Director, Census Bureau• 1941: Appointed Census Director

The Replacement…

• Austin’s Limitations from White House Perspective (1939)– Insufficiently attuned to the New Deal agenda,

electoral issues, and the 1940 Census– Insufficiently attuned to the looming threat of

world war

The Problem: Patronage and the Upcoming Election

• December 24, 1938: Harry Hopkins appointed Secretary of Commerce

• July 20, 1939: Secretary Hopkins wrote a “PERSONAL AND CONFIDENTIAL” (emphasis in original) memorandum to Undersecretary Edward J. Noble: – “I want Austin to report directly to me on the 1940 census

and in my absence he should clear any points with Willard Thorp,” (Assistant Secretary of Commerce and head of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce).

• July 26, 1939: J. C. Capt appointed as a Confidential Assistant to the Director, Census Bureau

Patronage and the 1940 Census• Sept. 26, 1939: David Niles (Special Asst to Hopkins) to Missy Le Hand,

FDR’s secretary:– “The problem I have ... has to do with Mississippi. The President last week

talked with Under Secretary Noble about some of these Census matters, but ... he [i.e., Noble] is not familiar with these political nuances. The Mississippi appointments to the Census are further complicated by the fact that Director Austin of the Census is a devoted supporter and follower of Senator Pat Harrison. Austin comes from Mississippi and to him a Democrat is a Democrat, regardless. Austin, furthermore is not a New Dealer. He has been in the Census Bureau since 1900 and is a nice old guy ... but whom I have to watch because he has made promises to those who are not friendly to the President. I finally had to tell Austin that a few weeks ago that appointments to the Census were not the province of the Congress but are to be determined by the President and Secretary Hopkins for whom we are working.”

Problem: The Census and National Defense

• September 26, 1939, Niles to LeHand:– Hopkins wanted to ask the President, “whether

there were any new questions that the President might want included in the Census questionnaire because of the war situation. “

– Niles concluded with the comment, “It is not clear how we could legally use that information because of the statutes under which the Census operates.”

The Census and National Defense

• September 26, 1939: Department of Justice developed draft legislation to amend the Census Act to permit individual level census data to be acquired by Naval Intelligence, Military Intelligence, and the FBI for “national defense.”

• December, 1939: Draft Legislation transmitted to Census Bureau. Austin opposed it.

• March 1940: Legislation withdrawn.

Transition to Capt

• January 1941: Austin reached mandatory retirement age and retired.

• February – May 1941: Search for a new Director.

• January 17, 1941: James Rowe (FDR aide): “Capt is the man all the Democrats want”

• The White House choice: J.C. Capt

Transition to Capt• February 20, 1941: Rowe to FDR summarizing the functions of the

Census Director post (“technical competence, administrative ability, and capacity of contact, particularly with the Congress”)… Capt “is the man Harry Hopkins is to speak to you about, Harry brought him over ... to handle the political patronage ... did a splendid job ... [so that] the Senators and the Congressmen are all for him ... He is intelligent and capable. Unfortunately, he has no professional background or standing in his profession. He has absolutely no statistical background.”

• February 24, 1941, Washington Post, “Census Post Fight,” Capt was “reported to have the inside track to succeed ... Austin as Census director, but a hot scramble for the job persists. Capt is a Texan ... [and] most members of the Texas congressional delegation have urged his appointment. Capt ... worked for WPA before Harry Hopkins gave him the Census job. He has done plenty of favors for members of Congress as he handled Census patronage in the field.”

Summary of Recommendations for Census Director,

by Source of Recommendation, February to April 1941

Recommendation All sources Academics Others

All recommendations 50 21 29

J.C. Capt 17 0 17

Others 27 15 12

Professional criteria 6 6 0

Appointment

• April 22, 1941: FDR nominated Capt as Census Director• April 25, 1941: Capt to FDR thanking the President for

nominating him as Director• May 13, 1941: Nomination approved unanimously and

without discussion by Senate• May 21, 1941: Capt took office and wrote to Niles: “a

little while ago I took the oath of office as Director, Bureau of the Census . ...”

• He told Niles that he was the person “who has done more than any other person towards placing me where I now stand.”

Lessons and Conclusions

• Resources: – Census History website and staff– Scholarly and popular historical accounts– Oral history, biography, and the administrative

record

Lessons and Conclusions• Historical analogies can provide useful

information for current practice• Historical context can help explain current

practices and orient policy makers facing decisions

• Historical narratives permits thought exercises to consider how to examine decisions

• Thank you….for more information, email margo@uwm.edu