the cedss model and the scottish case study gary polhill and nick gotts 1
TRANSCRIPT
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The CEDSS Model and the Scottish case study
Gary Polhill and Nick Gotts
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Outline
The CEDSS model
Stakeholder Advisory Group input
Demonstration of the CEDSS model
Data sources, refining the model
Future scenarios for CEDSS
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The CEDSS ModelCommunity Energy Demand Social Simulator
Households located in a street-network, making decisions about buying energy-using and energy-saving appliances and equipment.
Households’ energy use, and expenditure on energy and energy-related equipment, is tracked over time.
Data for runs of the model covering the period 2000-2010 is drawn from a range of publicly-available sources, and from the first (2010) GILDED survey.
Runs covering the period 2010-2050 are in preparation.
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Stakeholder Advisory Group InputDemo of prototype model followed by Knowledge Elicitation Exercise:
Post-it session
Discussion of post-its
Opportunity to add new post-its
Index card sorting exercise 1: Categories that made
sense to participants
Index card sorting exercise 2: Ontological categories
predefined by us Entities Processes Relationships Attributes
“Using the picture as a guide, identify anything associated with household energy
use or household energy activities”
April 2010 SAG meeting
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Index Card Sorting 1
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Index Card Sorting 2
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Ontology from the index cards
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Ontology from another meeting in Budapest
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Demonstration of the CEDSS model
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Refining the CEDSS Model
Input dataGILDEDsurvey
ONSstatistics
DECCstatistics
SG statistics
Argoscatalogues
Etc.
Calibrationdata
Validationdata
CEDSS
Freeparameters
Results
Comparison
Comparison
CEDSS Future Scenarios
Input data
Peer-reviewedpapers (appliancePrices, efficiency)
CEDSS
Freeparameters
Results
PolicyImplications
OECD/IEAProjections(energy savings)
EC scenarios (fuel prices)
GILDED survey(starting point)