the case for spain presentation

7/30/2019 The Case for Spain Presentation

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The Case for Spain

Ignacio de la Torre, Ph. D.

[email protected]

November, 2012
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Agenda

Myths of the Spanish economy

Spain is solvent

Spain can grow

Executive summary

Conclusions


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November 201The Case for Spain

Executive Summary

3

Journalists and analysts have spread a number of myths that paint an excessively pessimistic picture of

the Spanish economy. This presentation and its corresponding report address these misconceptions.

Spain is facing difficult times, but its problems are often exaggerated

Spain is solvent:

Assets are valued over 700% of GDP while debts are below 270%

After recapitalizing Spanish banks, the contagion effect with the Sovereign should be over

A fiscal package to reduce the deficit by 11% of GDP is being implemented

Spain is competitive and able to grow:

Exports are at record highs (above 200 bn., 22% of GDP), and they should keep growing dueto a cheap and productive labor force

Revenues from tourism and other services are also at historic highs (60 bn.) and continue to

grow

Entrepreneurs and SMEs, supported by world class large companies, should lead Spains

economic growth model going forward

With enhanced fundamentals and depressed valuations, we believe now is a fantastic moment

to invest in Spain


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Agenda


Executive summary

Conclusions

Spain is solvent

Spain can grow


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Real leverage is 268%, not 363%, as financial corporations debts should not be double counted. If

you owe 100,000 to your bank and the bank owes this 100,000 to a foreign investor, total debt is

100,000, not 200,000

Real leverage of corporations should be adjusted due to: i) amounts lent to corporations by Spanish

banks, to avoid double counting (27% of GDP), ii) Inter-company loans, also double counted (27% of

GDP), iii) 40% of GDP of this debt is real estate which is being provisioned at 20% of GDP (50% of

total), iv) Debts related to investments made in international businesses, which do not contribute to

Spanish GDP (44% of GDP)

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth,January 2012, p. 13

Myth 1: Spains Debt / GDP is 363%, therefore the country is near

collapse

Misrepresentation of Spanish Debt


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Myth 2: Spain is uniquely reckless in spending

6

Spains government spends less as a % of GDP than that of most other Eurozone countries and the

UK, both before and after the crisis (Spain had close to a 2% fiscal surplus in 2007)

Spains government is taking serious measures to correct the fiscal deficit, both through cost

reduction programs (including controlling spending by regional and local governments) as well as tax

increases. Local Governments are cutting costs 7% YTD

In relative terms, Spains fiscal woes are more closely related to low tax revenues than to excessive

spending

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

2008 2009 2010

France Germany Greece

Ireland Italy Portugal

Spain United Kingdom United States

Government spending as a % of GDP

Source: The Heritage Foundation

N b 201Th C f S i


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Myth 3: Spain is not competitive

7

As an index ofSpains competitiveness, Unit Labor Costs declined 4% since 2008, compared to that of

Spains trading partners, which increased 5-10%

Therefore, Spain has regained competitiveness of between 9-14% in cost terms, allowing exports to

thrive

Evolution of Spanish competitiveness (ULC) vs. main trading partners

Source: Eurostat

95

100

105

110

115

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Germany Spain France Italy



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17%

12%

5% 4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Spain Germany France Italy

Myth 4: Spain has no growth engine to end the crisis

Spanish exports and gross tourism revenues are at a historic highs (above 200 bn. and 60 bn. per

year, respectively)

Low labor costs, increased labor flexibility, and world class social (particularly the healthcare system)and capital infrastructures create an environment conducive to growth, even if the country maintains

low levels of public investment in the coming years

Export growth evolution since 2008-2012

Source: Eurostat

Total number of tourists per year (thousands)

Source: INE

8

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000



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Myth 5: Spain still has plenty adjustments to make, following theexamples of other crises

9

Spain has already tackled three key adjustments:

As a result of the a significant drop in imports and an increased level of exports, excluding

energy, an 8% trade deficit has turned into a 3% surplus by 2012, reducing the need for

external financing to a minimum

The financial sector is set to have provisioned close to 200 bn. by year-end 2012, as house

prices are adjusting in line with those of other economies

As discussed further in the forthcoming slides, the Spanish labor force has become much more

competitive

Trade deficit evolution

Source: INE

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Energy Excluding energy



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10

Myth 6: Europe will let Spain exit the Euro

Immediate insolvency of the ECB, due to

TARGET2 imbalances

Sizeable loses in the German and French

banking books

Contagion effect on Italy leading to a

likely breakup of the Euro

Sharp recession in export-led

economies

Potentially devastating implications to

the European Union as an economic and

political project

An eventual exit of Spain from the euro zone would be far more costly than supporting its liquidity

needs. The foreseeable consequences of a Spanish exit would be:

http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/releases/20121114005856/tmp/scratch_4//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/TARGET2_balances.png


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p

11

Effect on GDP Effect on employment

(cumulative until 2020)(number of employed persons)

(cumulative until 2020)

Services Directive 1.2 39,000Labor Reform 4.5 1,763,000

Pensions Reform 0.4 71,000

Financial Sector Reform 1.6 96,000

Law on Budget Stability and

Financial Sustainability0.9 18,000

Total 8.6 1,987,000

Spain is carrying out an 11.3% fiscal adjustment, one of the broadest in the OECD in recent history.

Supply side reforms can boost GDP by almost 9% in the coming years

Fiscal reform already being implemented:

Source: Spanish Treasury

Myth 7: Spain will not reform

2012 2013 2014

( bn.) ( bn.) ( bn.)

April Adjustments 43.1 19.6 0

July Adjustments 13.5 22.9 20.1Total 56.6 42.5 20.1

% of GDP 5.4% 4.0% 1.9%

Supply side reforms already being implemented:



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p

Myth 8: Spain is bleeding its deposit base

12

High quality deposits (resident retail and corporate deposits), which banks assume to be a stable

funding source, are down only 2-3%; this hardly qualifies as a real deposit flight

The drop in the total deposit figures (6.7% YTD as of July 2012) are mostly technical in nature and

have not had a real negative impact on the financial system funding

Retail and corporate deposits in Spain (bn.)

Source: Bank of Spain

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Dec-1

0

Jan-1

1

Feb-1

1

Mar-1

1

Apr-11

May-1

1

Jun-1

1

Jul-11

Ago-1

1

Sep-1

1

Oct-11

Nov-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan-1

2

Feb-1

2

Mar-1

2

Apr-12

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-12



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According to CDS spreads, Spain is riskier than Indonesia, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Romania

Last time Spain defaulted was in 1883

Credit default swaps do not reflect political stability (democracy) nor stability provided by a strong

middle class (built in Spain during 1960s)

Countries default once they reach very high levels of Government debt (above 120% of GDP),

cannot access liquidity and are not able to grow. Spain is not in this situation

Sovereign CDS spread

Source: Factset

Myth 9: According to the CDS wisdom, Spain is riskier than manysmall emerging economies

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Argentina

Pakistan

Ukraine

Portugal

EgyptSpainItaly

Ireland

Hungary

Romania

Bulgaria

Latvia

Lithuania

Kazakhstan

Turkey

Indonesia

Russia

Israel

Poland

SouthAfrica

France

Philippines

Brazil

ThailandPeru

Colombia

CzechRep.

SaudiArabia

Mexico

Estonia

Malaysia

China

Chile

AustriaJapan

Netherlands

Germany

Ukraine

SwitzerlandUS

Sweden



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Myth 10: Spaniards dont workhard

14

The Spanish labor force works more hours per year than that of most other countries in the world, inline with the UK and just below the US

Comparing Spanish labor costs and its productivity per head, Spain is one of the most attractive

countries in the world from an investment perspective

Average hours worked per year

Source: OECD

Unit labor costs and GDP per hour worked (2011)

Source: Eurostat, OECD

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Spain France Italy UK USA Germany

Norway

BelgiumDenmark

FranceLuxembourgNetherlands

Germany

Finland

Austria Ireland

Italy

Spain

UK

Portugal

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

40 60 80 100 120 140

Hourlywages()

GDP per hour worked as % of US (USA=100)


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Agenda


GRO

UPPRESENTATION

Spain is solvent

Spain can grow

Executive summary

Conclusions



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Solvency = Assets - Debt

16

Spanish assets (financial and real estate, assuming 50% cuts in real estate prices) are well above debts.

Spain is solvent, but illiquid

40% of GDP of corporate debt is real estate related, half of which is being provisioned

Balance sheets of Spanish government, corporates, and households

Source: Bank of Spain, Funcas, Arcano

1,047

202

845

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Assets Liabilities + Equity

Government

Assets Net equ ity pos it ion L iabi li ti es

5,061

4,202

859

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Households

Assets Net equ it y pos it ion L iabil it ies

1,792

661

1,131

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000


Corporates

Asset s Net equi ty pos it ion L iabil it ies



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Spain is solvent, but illiquid

17

Almost 80% of wealth is in illiquid real estate. Active tax policies need to be undertaken to balanceSpains savings structure

Asset split of households (% of total assets)

Source: Oliver Wyman



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0.9

0.8

1.1

0.6

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Loans Deposits

Trillions

Companies Households

ECB and

wholesale

funding

1.7 Trillion

The Spanish financial system has addressed its main weaknesses

18

Although it has taken much longer than it should have, the Spanish financial system is successfully

addressing its liquidity and solvency weaknesses:

Liquidity: ECB has refinanced two thirds of the banks wholesale funding, mostly with 3-year

maturity funds, providing Spanish banks with certainty of funding and enough time to execute a

necessary deleveraging process, already underway

Solvency: Total provisioning will reach 20% of GDP or about 15% of the systems loan book by

2013 while increasing capital ratios. This massive effort has been tackled by a mix of (i)

operating profits, (ii) asset sales, (iii) rights issues, and (iv) Government capital injections

Financial System Loan Book Funding Structure

Source: Arcano, Bank of Spain



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Liquidity risk has been limited

19

International liquidity mechanisms are larger than Sovereign liquidity needs

The risk of contagion between Spains Sovereign debt (85% of GDP) and banks wholesale debt (over

50% of GDP) has been successfully addressed by: (i) the ECBs liquidity programs and (ii) the

comprehensive financial sector reform carried out by the Spanish government, which will result in a

much healthier and concentrated banking system

ESM/EFSF resources and gross financial public needsin Spain and Italy (bn.)

Source: Bloomberg

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Firewall Financial needs 2013-14

IMF ESM lending capacity Spain Italy



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Unparalleled fiscal adjustment underway (11.3% of GDP)

20

By 2014, Spains structural and fiscal deficits are expected to be reduced very significantly, even in theworst case economic scenario, allowing public debt to stabilize below 100% of GDP, which is lower

than the expected level of France, UK, and USA

2012 2013 2014 Acum. 2012-2014

GDP growth -1.5% -0.5% 1.2% -0.8%GDP growth (IMF estimate) -1.5% -1.3% 1.0% -1.8%

GDP growth (EU estimate) -1.4% -1.4% 0.8% -2.0%

Target deficit (% of GDP) 6.3% 4.5% 2.8% 13.6%

IMF estimated deficit (% of GDP) 7.0% 5.7% 4.6% 17.3%

EU estimated deficit (% of GDP) 7.0% 6.0% 6.4% 19.4%

Target structural deficit (% of GDP) 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 4.5%

Implied estructural adjustment (% of GDP) 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 6.0%

Announced adjustment (% of GDP) 5.4% 4.0% 1.9% 11.3%

Estimated public debt (% of GDP) 85.3% 91.0% 95.6%

Spains fiscal consolidation program (Governments projections unless indicated)

Source: Spanish Treasury, IMF, EC (excludes accounting impact of valuation adjustments in bank aid; ECs 2014 forecast assumes tax

cuts which are not realistic)


H i d b i 2013 f 49% f ll


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House prices are expected to bottom in 2013 after a 49% fall

21

House prices should fall 10% in 2013 and stabilize going forward. By 2013, house prices will reachhistoric averages vs. disposable income. Total decline between 2008-2013 should reach 49%. The

contagion effect from real estate to banks should be over

House prices

Source: Ministry of Development

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

per square metre (LHS) % yoy (RHS)


G t d bt li l f i it l


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Government debt relies less on foreign capital

22

Foreigners hold 36% of Government debt (down from 55% in 2009), reducing refinancing risk as

Spanish financial institutions have picked up the balance

Spanish Government Debt by holder

Source: Spanish Treasury, IMF

33.5%

13.3%

2.3%

13.9%

36.2%

Credit Institutions Pension, insurance, mutual funds and others

Household and non financial companies Spanish of fic ia l institutions

Non Residents


P i t t f S i b i t


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Private sector of Spain begins to save

23

Since 2010, the private sector of the economy has been saving almost 4% of GDP

Breakdown of private savings

Source: INE

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Q1-2

012

%ofGDP

Savings over GDP

Non-financial f irms Households


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Agenda


GR

OUPPRESENTATION

Spain is solvent

Spain can grow

Executive summary

Conclusions


Spanish exports at record highs and continue to grow


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Spanish exports at record highs and continue to grow

25

Spain is already generating an ex-energy trade surplus

Spain is entering into a positive trade balance of goods and services

Evolution of Spanish exports ( mm.)

Source: INE

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

75,000

95,000

115,000

135,000

155,000

175,000

195,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012e

Exports Exports/GDP

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Exports

Imports

Spanish exports and imports of goods and services

( bn.)

Source: Historical figures and projections provided by Eurostat


The services and tourism sectors are at record highs


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The services and tourism sectors are at record highs

26

Spanish touristic growth is structural

Net revenue from tourism per year (m)

Source: INE. Gross revenues left by foreigners into Spain less money spent by Spaniards abroad

36,000

38,000

40,000

42,000

44,000

46,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q3 2012


allowing Spain to enter a current account surplus


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allowing Spain to enter a current account surplus

27

By 2013, Spain should reach current account surplus through record exports and tourism. This will

help Spain to begin reducing its external debtor position

Current account ( bn.)

Source: Bank of Spain, OECD

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Goods Services Factor income Current transfers CA (% of GDP)


Enhanced productivity and lower real wages are making this possible


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Enhanced productivity and lower real wages are making this possible

28

A productivity revolution and lower real wages have enhanced competitiveness, allowing companies

to successfully substitute local sales with exports

Labor productivity change (2007=100)

Source: INE

Real wages evolution (YOY%)

Source: Eurostat

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Euro area (16 countries) Spain

95

100

105

110

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e

Spain EU


Spain today has a highly competitive labor force


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Spain today has a highly competitive labor force

29

Spanish labor is 30% cheaper than the euro zone average, but productivity difference is less than 10%

Productivity/hour worked (US=100%, 2011)

Source: The Conference Board

Labor costs (/hour)

Source: Eurostat

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3540

45

50

Norw

ay

Swed

en

Fran

ce

Netherlan

ds

Finla

nd

Irela

nd

Spain

Cypr

us

Portugal

CzechRepub

lic

Estonia

Pola

nd

Lithuania


that works hard and is increasingly flexible


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that works hard and is increasingly flexible

30

Spaniards work harder than most of its trading partners, in terms of hours worked. Following thelabor reform, salary increases are no longer linked to inflation

Difference between prices and salaries (YOY%)

Source: Ministerio de Empleo y Seguridad Social, INE

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Salaries YoY% CPI YoY%


More new companies are being created than in the past


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p g p

31

More than 320,000 new companies are being created every year, although one of the greatest

challenges facing Spains corporate sector is to increase the average size of its companies

Creation of gross new companies

Source: Arcano, INE

Breakdown of companies by sizes: Spain vs. Germany

Source: Eurostat

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Spain Germany

250 employees or more 50-249 20-49 10-19 1-9


that, together with a higher value-added industrial sector, will


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, g g ,slowly help drive up employment and eventually growth

32

The industrial and services sectors will be the main engine of Spains GDP growth and employment,with industries increasing their value-added products

Most of the employment adjustments should end by 2013. With consumption currently at depressed

levels, stabilization of employment might lead to consumption growth from 2014 onwards

Evolution of Spanish value-added in the

industrial sector

Source: INE

Unemployment QOQ growth evolution (EPA)

Source: INE

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2009 2010 2011 2012


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Agenda


GROUPPRESENTATION

Spain is solvent

Spain can grow

Executive summary

Conclusions


Conclusions


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Conclusions

34

Spain in 2006

11% Current Account deficit, the second largest in the world. For every 100 euros of GDP, 11

were financed by foreigners through short term money. This is the origin of the liquidity crisis

25% Credit Expansion. To grow GDP by one euro, Spain needed four euros of additional lending.

This is the origin of the banking crisis Constructions weight in the economy increased to 12% of GDP

Tax collection increased 4% of GDP due to real estate. Yet the Government used this money to

hire more civil servants. This is the origin of the fiscal crisis

Despite these risks, asset prices were at historic highs, and Spain attracted record inflows of

portfolio money (208 bn.)

Spain in 2013

Current Account surplus. 11% adjustment in 6 years. Yet GDP has only contracted 5%

Loans down 5%. Private debt to GDP down 16% since 2009. Again, in spite of this, GDP only

contracted 5%

Construction is back to 6% of GDP, below historic average

A fiscal package of 11% of GDP is being implemented. By 2014, structural deficit will reach 0%

Despite lower risks, asset prices have plummeted, and significant portfolio money left Spain

(80bn. in 2012)


Conclusions (cont.)


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Spain was not the best place to invest in 2006 but it could be in 2013

Spains condition is not as weak as many believe. Investors should disregard misguided myths

about Spain when making investment decisions and focus on fundamentals

Spain is solvent, but illiquid. The EU has established sufficient mechanisms to support Spains need

for liquidity. Spanish corporates, households, and the government are solvent

Spanish banks are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. There are 15 main banking groups left,

leaving the sector well capitalized and with sufficient liquidity

The contagion effect from real estate to banks, and from banks to the Government, should be over

Spain is adjusting, fiscally and from a supply side point of view

Spain is growing through external demand, as exports and tourism reach record highs

Spains cheap labor costs and high productivity explain why this growth is structural, not short term

driven

The crisis is producing a new generation of Spaniards focused on entrepreneurship, SMEs and R&D


Spain will emerge from its ashes, like the Phoenix!


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p g ,

36

Thanks!


Arcano: your local house of reference to invest in Spain


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About Arcano (www.arcanogroup.com)

A leading independent advisory services firm with presence in Europe and the United States. The

company specializes in three areas: Investment Banking, Asset Management, and Multifamily

Office Our team is formed by 70 qualified professionals that work to offer financial advisory services

and tailored solutions for our clients with a unique, independent approach

Arcanos Investment Banking unit is recognized as a leader in the small and mid-market segment

of the Spanish market, including clients such as Private Equity firms, family owned companies and

publicly traded corporations. Arcano also provides pre-IPO finance rounds to companies for

deals ranging from 10 m. upwards to support expansion up to 2 years before the IPO; on the

small cap side, Arcano helps small companies float on the Spanish Alternate Market (MAB) with

offering sizes from 10 m. upwards, and it intermediates block trades in small caps in the Spanishequity markets

About the author

Ignacio de la Torre has been a Partner of Arcano since 2008

Fifteen years of experience in investment banking and capital markets, having worked in the

equity research and equity sales departments of Deutsche Bank and UBS Investment Bank

The author is also a part time Professor of Finance and Economics at IE Business School. He

holds an MBA from Insead, a Ph. D. in History from UNED, an M. Sc. from ICADE, and a M. A.from UNED. He has authored four books and won the Everis prize in 2009


Disclaimer


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Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject issuer

and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for

providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Ignacio de la Torre.

This document has been prepared by Arcano Valores AV, S.A.U. (Arcano Valores). Arcano Valores is an investment firm regulated

and registered under number 243 by the Spanish National Securities Market Commission (CNMV). This document is provided forinformation purposes only and must not be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial instrument

or to participate in any particular trading strategy. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be

reliable, but while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at

the time of publication, we make no representation that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

All opinions and estimates included herein constitute the current judgement of the author as at the date of this report and are

subject to change without notice. Arcano Valores has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a

recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate

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respect to recommendations, including: the consideration of its Research Department as a separate area, Chinese Walls, and the

possibility of establishing specific restrictions on research activity where appropriate. Arcano Valores research reports contain a

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whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report may not be

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Lpez de Hoyos, 42

28006 Madrid+34 91 353 21 40

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