The Blob, El Niño, and the Drought in Puget Sound Christopher Krembs, Marine Monitoring Unit, EAP, Ecology

The Blob

The Drought

El Niño

Warmest first four months since 1981, (Source: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space)

The snow has melted early or came down as rain

Hurricane Ridge: winter snow is gone. Low snow has only occurred twice since 1960 (1977 & 2005).

April 2010

Feb 2013

March 2015

Photo by Bill Baccus, Olympic National Park

June 2015

Puget Sound Basin >30% of expected Snow Water Equivalence

• Most rivers and streams are at or below 10th percentile in greater Puget Sound Basin • Several western regions are experiencing record low flows

By June 1, 2015, most rivers and streams are at or below 10th percentile

Many rivers and streams are much below normal

Record low-flows of some Puget Sound rivers (USGS)

Snoqualmie River Flow only 25% of normal

Puyallup River 6/4/ daily mean flow levels below the regulatory minimum

2014 2015

The Fraser River has been running very high. The “freshet” is much earlier in 2015

Higher than normal

Lower than normal

Expected

Fraser River is the largest freshwater source of Salish Sea affecting estuarine circulation

The Blob + El Niño

invades Pacific, flummoxing climate experts

2013-2015

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly, 29 January 2014

One week mean sea surface temperature anomaly 8-14 March 2015.

Sea Surface Anomalies Persistent mass of warm water affects:

•ocean currents, •marine ecosystems •inland weather

The “Blob” in 2014, (NOAA)

The Blob hits Washington shores! Timing of coastal winds is important!

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2014 -17 -72 -34 -14 2 24 34 35 -1 -62 -49 -88

2015 -49 -27 -18

Upwelling index (NOAA)

Until September 2014 upwelled water keeps warm water offshore

Coastal Upwelling

Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Victoria Seattle

snowpack

spring-neap cycle

tidal mixing over the sill estuarine

circulation

Fraser Skagit

San Juan Islands

Strait of Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. Puget Sound

upwelled water low DO , high nutrients

After September 2014 downwelling starts and brings in warm water

Downwelling

Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Victoria Seattle

snowpack

spring-neap cycle

tidal mixing over the sill estuarine

circulation

Fraser Skagit

San Juan Islands

Strait of Juan de Fuca Admiralty R. Puget Sound

downwelled warmer, lower nutrients, lower salinity, LOWER DO

Ecology’s Marine Monitoring Stations Sampled by a “great team” to full depth every month

Christopher Krembs

Skip Albertson

Laura Friedenberg Julia Bos

Carol Maloy

Mya Keyzers Suzan Pool

Brooke McIntyre

Julianne Ruffner

Conditions were dominated by warm water associated with the NE Pacific Ocean warm surface anomaly. Starting in October, temperatures are the highest on our record since 1989. Oxygen and salinities are becoming lower.

Apr. 2015: Higher Temperature! Lower Oxygen Lower Salinity

Red boxes show that the water measured is warmer than any of our measurements since 1989.

Eyes Over Puget Sound Marine Long-Term Monitoring Program

Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound

Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months…

Temperature and Salinity define Density (Density-1000=Sigma)

Warm low DO water enters Puget Sound

Central Sound Stations 1999-2013 Central Sound last 12 months…

Temperature and Salinity define Density (Density-1000=Sigma)

Ferry monitoring observations 6-8-2015 Surface water (3m) in places already >15°C

The Victoria Clipper IV carries sensors in its sea chest. The sensors allow us to get surface transects of temperature, chlorophyll, salinity, and other bio-optical measurements between Seattle and Victoria, BC twice per day.

Pockets of sea surface temperatures are now reaching >15°C near Kingston. Temperature are favorable for harmful algae species to bloom.

In temporal context: In spatial context:

What will the summer of 2015 bring?

The “Blob” is still offshore! (NOAA) 2014 May 2015

June 2015 Blob is ~500 km offshore

Will upwelled water in 2015 stay offshore?

Coastal Upwelling

Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Victoria Seattle Fraser

Rivers

spring-neap cycle

tidal mixing over the sill estuarine

circulation

San Juan Islands

reduced snowpack

Will an El Niño deepen the nutrient rich water?

Coastal Upwelling

Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Victoria Seattle

reduced snowpack

Fraser Rivers

spring-neap cycle

tidal mixing over the sill estuarine

circulation

San Juan Islands

dense water too deep

Rivers

Will summer squalls import more warm water?

Downwelling

Rain-fed rivers Snow-fed rivers Upwelling

Downwelling Estuarine circulation Tidal exchange

Victoria Seattle

reduced snowpack

Fraser

spring-neap cycle

tidal mixing over the sill estuarine

circulation

San Juan Islands

Speculating about the summer 2015

• No matter in what direction the coastal wind will blow, we can expect a

reduced renewal of water in Puget Sound.

• Puget Sound water will stay warm leading to potentially more regional

water quality issues.

• Will the situation become bigger with El Niño?

• Expect very different growth conditions for marine species.

The marine food web is responding (the news is coming in…)

• Energy-rich northern zooplankton species were replaced by southern copepods at end of 2014. Peter Chandler (Canada), San Diego meeting “The Blob”, May 2015)

• Much more gelatinous zooplankton, 'Crunchies' vs. 'Squishies‘, (John Dower, UVIC, CBC NES 6/8 here).

• A record high 96% diversion of returning Fraser River sockey salmon via

northern Vancouver Island (LaPointe et al. 2015 report, in prep).

• Largest toxic algae bloom stretching from Central California to British Columbia. NOAA (Seattle Times 6/16 here).

• First time PSP, DSP and domoic acid in Washington at the same time. DOH (Seattle Times 6/16 here).

Leveraging our flight time

• Empty transit flights Seattle - Olympia with camera on board

• Document blooms, debris, animal aggregations, oil sheens, water boundaries

• Unique perspective, minimal extra cost

jellyfish

jellyfish

boat

A. B.

Large patches of jellyfish forming in finger inlets of South Sound. Location: A. Eld Inlet; B. Budd Inlet on 6-4-2015 (South Sound).

1 Aerial photography 6-8-2015 Navigate

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

jellyfish jellyfish

jellyfish

jellyfish jellyfish

jellyfish

jellyfish

Bloo

m

2:22 PM (6-4-2015) 3:11 PM

A. B.

4 Navigate

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

Aerial photography 6-8-2015

Large ribbons and patches of organic debris in many places of South Sound. Location: A. North of McNeil Island, B. Nisqually Reach (South Sound), 3:16 PM.

Debr

is

Debr

is Debr

is

Sediment plume of Puyallup River with internal waves meandering into Bay and mixing with a bloom. Location: Commencement Bay (Central Sound), 3:28 PM.

8 Navigate Aerial photography 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

Bloo

m

boat

Plum

e

Internal waves

Large Noctiluca bloom surfacing and gathering in large quantities at tidal front. Location: Commencement Bay (Central Sound), 3:32 PM.

6 Navigate Aerial photography 6-8-2015 Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

Bloo

m

Debr

is

boat ship

10 Navigate Aerial photography 6-8-2015

Large Noctiluca bloom held back front off Maury Island Marine Park and Saltwater State Park. Location: East of Vashon Island (Central Sound), 3:32 PM.

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

Bloo

m

Debr

is

15 Navigate

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

Large Noctiluca bloom has surfaced near northeast Bainbridge Island across Discovery Park, Seattle. Location: Bainbridge Island (Central Sound), 3:45 PM.

Aerial photography 6-8-2015

boat

Debr

is

Noctiluca bloom starting to surface and getting washed onto beaches. Location: Port Madison (Central Sound), 3:47 PM.

18 Navigate

Field log Climate Water column Aerial photos Ferry monitoring Streams

Aerial photography 6-8-2015

boat barge

Debr

is

Debr

is

Debr

is

Is the food web changing in Puget Sound?

Hypothesis! Is Noctiluca a visible harbinger of a food web change?

Hypothesis for combining a series of recent observations affecting energy and material transfer to higher trophic levels

Eyes Over Puget Sound: