the basics of oil trading ep. 2
TRANSCRIPT
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THE BASICS OF OIL TRADING EP.2Trading with IndicatorsBy Maruli Tua Sinambela & Rekhmen Abadi
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4 keys to trade1. Moving Averages Simple and Exponential2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)3. Bollinger Bands4. parabolic SAR
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
• Apa itu Indikator Moving Average? Moving average atau disingkat MA adalah jenis indikator teknikal yang digunakan untuk menampilkan nilai rata-rata harga pasar selama periode waktu tertentu. MA biasanya digunakan dengan beberapa seri data waktu untuk kelancaran fluktuasi harga jangka pendek dan menekankan tren jangka panjang. Muncul sebagai garis melengkung pada grafik harga di chart kita, Moving average digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi tren pasar
• Periode waktu rata-rata harga dalam moving average disini dapat dijelaskan misalnya Periode 20 MA, jika dimasukkan dalam chart H1, berarti MA menujukkan rata-rata harga perdagangan selama 20 jam terakhir. demikian juga jika di masukkan dalam chart timeframe lain seperti harian, maka akan menunjukkan rata-rata harga perdagangan 2- hari terakhir.
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Simple Moving Average Calculation
Daily Closing Prices: 11,12,13,14,15,16,17
First day of 5-day SMA: (11 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 15) / 5 = 13
Second day of 5-day SMA: (12 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16) / 5 = 14
Third day of 5-day SMA: (13 + 14 + 15 + 16 + 17) / 5 = 15
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Moving Averages Simple and Exponential
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Relative Strength Index RSI
• Diperkenalkan pertama kali oleh J. Welles Wilder pada tahun 1978 pada bukunya New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.
• Nilai dari Rsi berada pada kisaran 0-100 (itulah sebabnya mengapa digolongkan sebaga indikator oscillator. Oscillate = berkisar). RSI sendiri merupakan indikator yang membandingkan momentum harga yakni antara nilai pada saat ini terhadap daya tarik losses yang terjadi
• Secara matematis RSI dituliskan sebagai berikut:
RS adalah : • RS = Relative Strength, merupakan ratio
antara dua buah XMA yang dihaluskan•
AG = Average price gain pada periode yang ditentukan. Diperoleh dari total gain dibagi periode yang dipakai.
•AL = Average price loss pada periode yang ditentukan. Diperoleh dari total loss dibagi periode yang dipakai.
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Relative Strength Index RSI
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Relative Strength Index RSI
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Relative Strength Index RSI
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Relative Strength Index RSI
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Relative Strength Index RSI
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Relative Strength Index RSI
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Relative Strength Index RSI
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Relative Strength Index RSI
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BOLLINGER BANDSCara Menggunakan Indikator Bollinger Bands• Bollinger Bands dibuat oleh pakar Analisa Teknikal bernama John Bollinger pada
tahun 1980-an. Indikator ini merupakan derivat dari Moving Averages yang dikembangkan menjadi 2 (dua) garis, yaitu Garis Atas (atau disebut Upper Band), dan Garis Bawah (atau disebut Lower Band). Kedua garis ini membatasi pergerakan saham, dengan lebih dari 90% berada di dalamnya.
• Parameter standar yang direkomendasikan oleh John Bollinger adalah 20 – 2. Artinya menggunakan MA-20 dengan 2 Standar Deviasi (2SD). Dengan demikian, Garis Atas (Upper Band) adalah hasil MA-20 ditambah 2SD, sementara Garis Bawah (Lower Band) adalah hasil MA-20 dikurang 2SD. Standar Deviasi adalah istilah untuk menunjukkan volatilitas harga, misalnya dengan mengukur perbedaan nilai harga penutupan dengan nilai rata-rata.
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BOLLINGER BANDS
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BOLLINGER BANDS
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BOLLINGER BANDS
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BOLLINGER BANDS
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BOLLINGER BANDS
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BOLLINGER BANDS
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BOLLINGER BANDS
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BOLLINGER BANDS
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Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR adalah indikator yang pada awalnya digunakan untuk mengetahui kapan trend akan berhenti (stop) dan balik arah (reverse) . Namun sering penggunaannya, ternyata parabolic sar juga banyak digunakan sebagi entry point.
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Parabolic SAR
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Parabolic SAR
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Entry point pada trend turun
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Entry point pada trend turun
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Entry point pada trend turun
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Parabolic SAR
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How to set Indicators
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How to set Indicators
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Crude Oil WTI • Harga tertekan namun hadapi zona penting
(support range)!
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OIL WTI: Key Support Range
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USD & Crude Oil WTI • Hadapi zona penting (key ranges)!
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Key Support Ranges:
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Next Focus:
• OPEC Meeting (4/Des/2015) – Apakah akan pangkas produksi minyaknya? (Juli 2015 hit 31,88 jt bph, rekor tertinggi yang tercatat Reuters. Sementara di Oktober 2015 ada di 31,64 jt bph).
• FOMC Meeting (15-16/Des/2015) – probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga AS November ini >70% (versus <40% Oktober sebelumnya!
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Next Focus Oil: OPEC Meeting (4/Des/2015) | 30 jt bph
REASONS TO CUT: • Ekonomi:
Venezuela resesi ekonomi – GDP terkontraksi sejak 2014 hingga mencapai -5%anArab Saudi – budget defisit 2015 melonjak 10x lipat, jadi 16% dari 1.5% (2014).
• Oversupply akan semakin besar: Dicabutnya sanksi Iran – dapat menambah supply minyak >1 juta bph Masuknya kembali Indonesia ke OPEC juga menambah supply – produksi minyak
Indonesia kini sekitar 900k bph!
REASONS NOT TO CUT: • Strategi ‘market share’ Arab Saudi: Terkait dengan keputusan OPEC Meeting 2014 lalu!
Dan selama produsen di luar OPEC (rival), khususnya saat ini Russia, tidak pangkas produksi, maka kemungkinan besar OPEC tidak akan lakukan itu. Yang menarik adalah jelang OPEC Meeting 4/Des, akan ada pertemuan Rusia dengan OPEC (meski bukan dalam forum resminya)
• Supply Minyak AS mulai tersendat: Data terakhir tunjukkan Oil Rigs yang merosot dalam 12 pekan dari 13 pekan terakhir! Lihat grafik berikut!
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Baker Hughes’ Oil Rig Count:
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What do the charts say:
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