the basic health program: findings from maryland’s report chuck milligan deputy secretary, health...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Basic Health Program: Findings from Maryland’s Report
Chuck MilliganDeputy Secretary, Health Care Financing
DHMHFebruary 14, 2012
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The Report: Findings
A variety of factors were studied to enable an objective decision by Maryland’s policymakers:– Potential Enrollment and the Effect on the Health
Benefit Exchange– Administrative Issues for DHMH, and the Financial
Impact to the State– Continuity, Provider Participation, and Churn
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Using a take-up rate of 75-80%, the BHP is expected to enroll around 82,000 adults by FY 2016.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Projection of Enrollment under Health Reform, FY 2014-2020
BHP with Income between 139-200% FPL Exchange (200-400% FPL) with SubsidyDirect Purchase without Subsidy >400%FPL
Total BHP Enrollment:
40,358 81,456 82,147 83,101 84,018 84,900 85,748
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High enrollment in the BHP could divert funds away from the Exchange or create adverse selection.
• Reduces enrollment by a projected 82,000 by 2016• Could reduce participation of carriers in the Exchange given
the loss of volume• Could reduce the Exchange’s leverage in the insurance
market, in the event the Exchange seeks to be an “active purchaser”
• Could essentially change risk pool in the Exchange• Could hurt the self-sustainable of the Exchange’s financing
structure, should the Exchange be financed by enrollees or carrier volume in the Exchange
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Administrative expenses and other operational issues at DHMH need to be considered when determining the viability of a BHP in Maryland.
• Administrative burden and the use of BHP dollars• State will be responsible for program management
and quality monitoring• Cost allocation for eligibility to be determined
• Premium collection• Medicaid current premium collection program
handles about 16,000 enrollees a year; BHP estimates close to 81,500 by FY 2015
• Programming changes to MMIS
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DHMH and Hilltop’s scenarios all show a net cost to the State; the assumptions from the Urban Institute’s 50-state report shows net savings (to be passed on to beneficiaries) of $40 million in 2014 . . .
Stat
e’s
Net
Cos
ts, i
n M
illio
ns
Note: Cost estimates exclude 90-day payment delay.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$41
$85 $89 $94 $98 $103 $108
$61
$127 $132 $139 $146 $153 $160
($1) ($3) ($3) ($3) ($3) ($3) ($3)($40)
($83) ($87) ($91) ($95) ($100) ($104)
Base-Cost Scenario High-Cost ScenarioBreak-Even Point Scenario Urban Institute Cost Estimates
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…and it is still unknown whether or not savings can be used to cover administrative costs, which account for up to 68% of total state costs.
Stat
e’s
Net
Cos
ts, i
n M
illio
ns
Note: Cost estimates exclude 90-day payment delay.
Base-Cost Scenario High-Cost Scenario Base-Cost Scenario High-Cost Scenario2014 2015
$28 $30
$58 $62 $13
$31
$27
$65
Administrative Other
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Financial Impact to the State
• In addition to the potential for paying BHP administrative costs with 100% state dollars, the State would be responsible for all medical costs over and above the federal contribution
• Based on Hilltop’s analysis, premiums in the individual market would need to increase by 16-24% in 2014 to achieve breakeven in the BHP premiums to the MCOs
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Continuity and Provider Participation
• Continuity is a major concern as individuals churn between Medicaid and the Exchange at 138% FPL
• Individuals would likely have same MCO in Medicaid and BHP if Maryland encouraged MCO participation in BHP
• Benefit packages may differ, depending on BHP savings or available state resources
• Depending on reimbursement rates, providers may limit the number of Medicaid/BHP patients they see
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A BHP would not necessarily reduce churn; the rate of churn at 200% FPL is likely similar to the rate at 138%...
Estimated annual churn at 138% FPL: 50%
Medicaid BHP Exchange
0% 138% 200% 400%
Churn Churn
FPL:
Estimated annual churn at 200% FPL: 55%
Note: Churn rates were estimated based on churn in the MCHP population; a study in the New England Journal of Medicine revealed similar findings.
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One study showed that, in states operating separate Medicaid, BHP, and Exchange programs, just 44% of individuals are likely to remain eligible for their initial program after one year.
This national study also found that, though churn was reduced at 138% FPL, there would be a more-than-offset increase in churn at 200% FPL, resulting in more overall churn with a BHP.
Source: Graves, J. A.; Curtis, R.; & Gruber, J. 2011. Balancing Coverage Affordability and Continuity under a Basic Health Program Option. N Engl J Med.
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It is unknown how a BHP will affect consumer affordability, as this is heavily reliant on the cost of premiums in the individual market in 2014.
100% 133% 150% 200% 250% 300% 400% $-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
Maximum Annual Premium Payments in the Exchange and a BHP, by Income as % of the FPL
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Consumer Affordability
• The ACA’s sliding scale subsidies were designed to reduce the penalties for individuals who experience changes in income or family size
• A study in the New England Journal of Medicine explained that transitioning from a BHP to the Exchange would have larger implications the consumer than transitioning from Medicaid to the Exchange• E.g. A family moving from a BHP into the Exchange at
200% FPL could see the value of its benefits fall by as much as 25%
Source: Graves, J. A.; Curtis, R.; & Gruber, J. 2011. Balancing Coverage Affordability and Continuity under a Basic Health Program Option. N Engl J Med.
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Recommendation
• Because of the large number of unknowns, and because there is no deadline for when a state must establish a BHP, Medicaid is recommending that Maryland delay a determination about the BHP until more federal guidance is released, and more information on rates and the state fiscal risks are available
• Conversations around this issue will continue at the next Health Care Reform Coordinating Council meeting (April)
