the alternatives “basket” - cfa institute · notes: includes funds with final close and...
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THE ALTERNATIVES “BASKET”
• Alternatives: a spectrum of opportunities from low risk fixed income substitutes
to high risk/high return equity substitutes
• Diversification properties stem from differentiated return drivers
• Many inherent non-investment risks
Infrastructure Distressed Debt
Hedge FundsPrivate EquityReal EstateReal Assets
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Ann
ua
lized R
etu
rn
Annualized Volatility
ALTERNATIVES SHIFT THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER
2
Source: Morgan Stanley
Using 15 years of data through 2015
with alternatives
without alternatives
GROWTH IN ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT
BY ASSET CLASS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014H1
Other
Private Equity Infrastructure
Venture Capital
Private Equity Real Estate
Privaty Equity Buyouts
Hedge Funds
3
Source: Preqin, Hedge Fund Research
Alternatives
26%
Equities
35%
Fixed Income
39%
Global AUM 2014
OVERVIEW OF KEY MACRO TRENDS AFFECTING THE
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT ECOSYSTEM
4
Macro trends are driving
change in the alternative
investment ecosystem
Capital sources
• Increasing the supply of
capital available to firms
• Increasing demand for
alternative investments
Business models
• Altering the competitive
landscape for GPs
• Driving the creation of new
GP-LP relationship models
Investment opportunities
• Opening large new markets
for firms to invest in
• Potentially larger deals
Technological Disruption
Monetary Policy
Social
System
Sustainab
Emerging Markets
Record levels of
quantitative easing
are:
• Reducing nominal
returns for investors
• Increasing pension
liabilities
• Driving asset prices
to near record levels
Aging in OECD
countries is:
• Increasing pension
liabilities
• Increasing funding
gaps at pension
funds
• Reduced access to
defined benefit plans
The economic rise of
non-OECD countries
is:
• Increasing global
trade
• Increasing share
of non-OECD global
GDP
• Creating large new
pools of capital
● Direct impact on AI
● Secondary impact on AI
RETURN AND RISK EXPECTATIONS
Return
Expectations
Risk*
(Standard Deviation)
Diversification
Potential
Real Estate 5 - 6% 12% Strong
Private Equity 8 - 10% 22% Moderate
Hedge Funds 4 - 5% 6% Variable
Infrastructure 6 – 7% 12% Strong
Global Equity 6 – 7% 17% n/a
US Fixed Income 3.5 – 4% 4% n/a
*alternatives’ volatility modified to reflect other aspects of risk
ALTERNATIVE INDEXES ARE INDEXES IN NAME ONLY
Asset allocation decisions and performance evaluation are complicated
by indexes which:
• Are derived from returns of active investment managers
• Are not fully representative of the universe
• Change in composition as sub-strategies move in and out of favor
• Obscure the true volatility of the asset class
6
“RISK” IN ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
IS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL ISSUE
IlliquidityCyclicality of
returnsCareer risk
Leverage Fees
Lack of market
pricingTransparency
Basis risk Regulatory Risk
Peer group risk
Currency riskPublic relations
risk
Tax Issues
Surprise factors
Credit riskAdministrative
complexity
GOVERNANCE IS CRITICAL TO SUCCESS
• Taking the right risks√ is the proposed investment aligned with the objectives of the investment program?
• Documenting decisions for posterity√ is the rationale for investing in the alternative asset class clearly articulated in the
fund’s governing documents?
• Staffing√ do we have people with the required skills, knowledge and capacity? Are decision
rights and responsibilities clearly spelled out and allocated to those who have the
knowledge and capacity?
• Processes√ delegate as appropriate; balance influence with accountability. Establish a strong
reporting framework to monitor the program’s progress toward the agreed-upon goals
and objectives.
Real Estate / Real Assets
THE REAL ESTATE/REAL ASSETS
• Income-Producing Commercial Property Investments
- Office
- Industrial
- Retail
- Apartments
• Indirect Real Estate Investments (REITs, REOCs)
• Timber
• Agriculture
• Energy/Commodities
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SPECTRUMLow Risk Fixed Income Substitute to High Risk Equity Alternative
Risk
Re
turn
Security of Income Growth-Oriented
Value-Added
• Property leasing
strategies
• Property repositioning
strategies
• Recapitalization
• Publicly traded REITs
Opportunistic
• Distressed sellers globally
• Private partnerships
• Recovery capital
• Growth capital
• Emerging property sectors
• New company foundation
• Land development
Core
• Fully-leased
multi-tenant property
• Core diserfied
• Publicly traded REITs
Income
• Triple-net leased
• Investment-grade CMBS
• Mortgage Loans
PRIVATE VS PUBLIC REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTDefining a Role for Real Estate Securities (REITs, REOCs)
• Real estate securities are securities first, real estate second
- Higher volatility than private core real estate
- Higher correlation to public markets
• However, real estate securities can complement a private real estate
portfolio:
- Assist in maintaining a fully invested real estate allocation
- Facilitate tactical or strategic shifts in the overall real estate allocation
- Allow short term tilts in property type or geographic concentration
REAL ESTATE RISKS
• Lack of liquidity
• Long lead time for new development
• Changing demographics
• Obsolescence
• Environmental issues
• Cost and availability of capital
• Leverage
• Unexpected inflation
13
TIMBER INVESTMENTS
•Young trees; < 10 years old
•Physical growth of 10 – 15% per year
•Limited liquidity (too small for economical
harvesting)
•Price volatility is low Emerging Growth Established GrowthAGE
PULPWOOD CHIP-N-SAW SAWTIMBER
Gro
wth
Mature
•Older than 20 years
•Physical growth < 2% per year
•Chief by-product is lumber used in housing
•Liquidity is significantly higher
•Prices are more volatile.
•10 to 20 years old
•Physical growth of 8 – 10% per year
•Sold for dimensional lumber, paper and plywood
•Liquidity is significantly enhanced at this stage due to the
greater range of end-uses and more efficient harvestability.
Source: Evergreen Timber
Private Equity
PRIVATE EQUITYLong term equity investments in non-publicly traded companies
Stage Start-Up Expansion Pre-IPO Public Buyout
Seed/First Stage
2nd
Round
3rd
Round
4th
Round
IPO
MBO
Rev
enu
es
Venture Capital Private Equity
Principal
Risks
Product
Development
Market
Development
Managing
Growth
Market Price & Debt
Service
SECONDARIES
THE PRIVATE EQUITY PYRAMID
Plan Sponsor
GatekeeperDiscretionary Separate Account
orFund-of-Funds
IWP V
(Early Stage Venture)
Company 1 Company 2
Company 3
SV VI(Late Stage Venture)
Company 4 Company 5
Company 6
BC VII
(Mezzanine)
Company 7 Company 8
Company 9
CEP II
(Buyout)
Company 11 Company 12
Company 13
LIFE CYCLE OF A PRIVATE EQUITY FUND
18
93
207
349
538
666 681
318299
352
405
547 555527
0
200
400
600
800
2003 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
PRIVATE EQUITY CAPITAL-RAISING TRENDSGlobal PE Capital Raised (by Fund Type)
19
Notes: Includes funds with final close and represents year funds held their final close; distressed PE includes distressed
debt, special situation and turnaround funds; other includes PIPE and hybrid funds
Source: Bain and Company
Total Value
CAGR
(10-15)
12%
CAGR
(14-15)
-5%
■ Other 18% 70%
■ Mezzanine 21% 118%
■ FoFunds 2% 14%
■ Nat.Res 26% 44%
■ Distressed 5% -5%
■ Secondaries 11% -32%
■ Growth -2% -30%
■ Infrastruct. 1% -16%
■ Venture 13% -2%
■ Real Estate 17% -2%
■ Buyout 16% -11%
ACQUISITION VALUATIONS CONTINUE TO CLIMB
20
5 5.5 5.16.3 5.7 5.8 5.5
3.94.1
3.7
3.94.3 4.5
5.8
8.99.6
8.8
10.3 10 10.3
11.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Debt/EBITDA Equity/EBITDA Valuation/EBITDA
US PRIVATE EQUITY AND VENTURE CAPITAL INDEX
RETURNSPeriods Ended June 30, 2016 • USD Terms • Percent (%)
21
QTR YTD 1 YR 3 YR 5 YR 10 YR 15 YR 20 YR 25 YR
CA US Private Equity 4.0 4.2 3.0 11.8 11.7 10.7 11.3 12.5 13.3
Nasdaq Constructed mPME -0.2 -2.7 -1.8 15.3 13.8 10.4 8.8 8.9 9.7
Russell 2000® mPME 3.8 2.2 -6.9 8.1 9.1 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.7
S&P 500 mPME 2.5 3.8 3.8 12.3 12.6 8.3 7.3 7.7 8.2
CA US Venture Capital 0.7 -2.6 -1.4 18.1 13.2 10.2 5.3 26.1 25.8
Ex-US Developed Mkts Private
Equity & Venture Capital Index
1.29 5.79 7.01 10.56 7.19 8.77 12.92 13.19 13.19
MSCI World Ex-US Index (net) -1.05 -2.98 -9.84 1.88 1.23 1.63 4.47 4.16 5.27
Sources: Cambridge Associates LLC, Frank Russell Company, Standard & Poor’s, and Thompson Reuters Datastream
DISPERSION IN MANAGER RETURNS
22
920
bps235
bps
PRIVATE EQUITY RISKS
• Limited liquidity
• The J-curve
• Returns can be highly dependent on entry point
• Lack of transparency
• Constant struggle to reach allocation target
• Timing: Opportunity vs. Process
• Sub-optimal investment selection
• Overhang of uninvested capital could lead to disappointing returns
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTSThe Indicative Risk Premium and Timeline Varies by Project Phase
24
1,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Duration of Project Phases, Years
Ind
ica
tive
Eq
uit
y-R
isk
Pre
miu
m (
bp
s)
■ Development
■ Construction
■ Transition
■ Operation
Source: McKinsey
INFRASTRUCTURE RISKS
• Failure to complete a new project
• Extended delays and / or cost overruns
• Regulatory risk
• Political risk
• Deteriorating economics if government subsidies are withdrawn
• Environmental issues
• Displacement by a new technology
• Changes in commodity prices which limit a project’s viability
25
Hedge Funds
HEDGE FUND STRATEGIES
Directional Non-Directional
Event Driven
Distressed
Merger Arbitrage
Strategic/Activist
Trade Claims
Equity
Long/Short
Domestic
International
Emerging Markets
Sector Specialists
Dedicated Short Sellers
Relative Value
Fixed Income Arbitrage
Capital Structure Arb
Convertible Arbitrage
Equity Market Neutral
Pairs Trading
Commodity Arbitrage
Other
Macro
Option Volatility Trading
Catastrophe Bonds
SHIFTING STRATEGY COMPOSITION
28
10 14
39
37
1990
26
2719
28
2015
26
24 20
30
2010
Source: Hedge Fund Research
ANALYZING RISK AND RETURNA TWO DIMENSIONAL FRAMEWORK
Source: Morningstar
Hedge Fund Sub-Strategy
Average Correlations to S&P 500
Index, Aug 2008 to Mar 2016
Aggregate 0.78
Managed Futures 0.01
Global Macro 0.43
Fixed Income Arb 0.58
Convert Arb 0.56
Event Driven 0.76
Market Neutral 0.60
Equity L/S 0.85
Source: CreditSuisse Dow Jones
Hedge Fund Indexes
THE NON-QUANTIFIABLE RISKS
Complexity
Derivatives
IntegralLeverage
Correlation to
S&P
Equity Strategies
Equity hedge Low No Low Moderate
Short selling Low No Low High neg
Emerging markets Low No Low Moderate
Event Driven Strategies
Merger arb Moderate Yes Moderate Moderate
Distressed secs Moderate No Low Moderate
Event-driven Moderate No Low Moderate
Relative Value Strategies
Fixed income arb High Yes High Low
Market neutral High No Moderate Moderate
Convertible arb Moderate Yes Moderate Low
Macro investing Moderate/High Yes Moderate Low
Implementation and Monitoring
BUILD OR BUY
Non-Discretionary
Consulting
Relationship
Discretionary
Gatekeeper
Fund of
Funds
Governance Capacity Required high moderate moderate
Flexibility to customize
investment guidelineshigh high
moderate
/low
Access to superior partnerships moderate moderate/high high
Diversification moderate moderate high
Advisor accountability moderate high high
Liquidity – ability to terminate
advisormoderate moderate low
Fees and costs moderate high high
HIGH COST OF IMPLEMENTING AN ALTERNATIVE
INVESTMENT PROGRAM
Real Estate Private Equity Hedge Funds
Acquisition Fees 50 bpsDue diligence costs
Transaction fees
Investment Management
Base Fees
6% - 8% of net income or
50 to 75 bps on assets
1.5% to 2% of committed
capital 1% to 2% of assets
Gatekeeper Fee n/a 0.75% to 1.4% 0.75% to 1.5%
Incentive Fees
(on profits)10% to 20%
Underlying manager:
20%
Gatekeeper: 0% to 10%
Underlying manager:
15% to 20%
Gatekeeper: 0% to 10%
Hurdle rate
Typically payable only on
profits above a hurdle
rate
Profit distributions
subject to clawback
Subject to highwater
mark. Some subject to a
hurdle rate.
Other Fees and
Expenses
Property/asset
management fees
Myriad costs may or may not be passed through to
the LPs. Read documents carefully
PERFORMANCE EVALUATION REQUIRES FLEXIBILITY
• Returns are presented as internal rates of return, and are not easily
rolled up into total fund reporting which uses time-weighted returns
• Reporting is lagged, further complicating the reporting of total fund
performance
• Benchmarks are ambiguous
- there is no universally accepted “market” benchmark
- you need to make sure you are comparing apples to apples
- the universe of comparators is limited
• Many of the standard performance measures assume normal
distributions of return
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE
EVALUATION
• Private Equity (IRR)
- Vintage year quartile rankings
- MOIC – Multiple of invested
capital
- PME – public market
equivalent
• Real Estate (IRR and TWR)
- Cash on cash
• Hedge Funds (IRR)
- Up-capture/down-capture
- Max drawdown/drawdown
duration
- Sortino
- Omega
35
Many Alternative Investment Performance Measures – which one to use?
36
ALTERNATIVE
INVESTMENTS –
ARE YOU READY
TO TAKE THE
PLUNGE?