the ai revolution_ road to superintelligence - wait but why

4/14/2015 TheAIRevolution:RoadtoSuperintelligenceWaitButWhy

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificialintelligencerevolution1.html 1/26

ByTimUrban

TheAIRevolution:TheRoadtoSuperintelligence

Note:ThereasonthisposttookthreeweekstofinishisthatasIdugintoresearchonArtificialIntelligence,IcouldnotbelievewhatIwasreading.IthitmeprettyquicklythatwhatshappeningintheworldofAIisnotjustanimportanttopic,butbyfarTHEmostimportanttopicforourfuture.SoIwantedtolearnasmuchasIcouldaboutit,andonceIdidthat,IwantedtomakesureIwroteapostthatreallyexplainedthiswholesituationandwhyitmatterssomuch.Notshockingly,thatbecameoutrageouslylong,soIbrokeitintotwoparts.ThisisPart1Part2ishere.

_______________

WeareontheedgeofchangecomparabletotheriseofhumanlifeonEarth.VernorVinge

Whatdoesitfeelliketostandhere?

Itseemslikeaprettyintenseplacetobestandingbutthenyouhavetoremembersomethingaboutwhatitsliketostandonatimegraph:youcantseewhatstoyourright.Sohereshowitactuallyfeelstostandthere:

Join121,034otherhumansandhaveourweeklypostemailedto

you

Email Address

PopularPosts

RandomPost

WhyGenerationYYuppiesAreUnhappy

1,099

WhyProcrastinatorsProcrastinate

460

TheFermiParadox

683

7WaysToBeInsufferableOnFacebook

593

SENDMENEWPOSTS

193,559

LikeWBWOnFacebook

24,970FollowWBWOnTwitter

712kLike

206kLike

215kLike

312kLike

about archive minis theshed dinnertable store supportwbw Search



Whichprobablyfeelsprettynormal

_______________

TheFarFutureComingSoonImaginetakingatimemachinebackto1750atimewhentheworldwasinapermanentpoweroutage,long-distancecommunicationmeanteitheryellingloudlyorfiringacannonintheair,andalltransportationranonhay.Whenyougetthere,youretrieveadude,bringhimto2015,andthenwalkhimaroundandwatchhimreacttoeverything.Itsimpossibleforustounderstandwhatitwouldbelikeforhimtoseeshinycapsulesracingbyonahighway,talktopeoplewhohadbeenontheothersideoftheoceanearlierintheday,watchsportsthatwerebeingplayed1,000milesaway,hearamusicalperformancethathappened50yearsago,andplaywithmymagicalwizardrectanglethathecouldusetocaptureareal-lifeimageorrecordalivingmoment,generateamapwithaparanormalmovingbluedotthatshowshimwhereheis,lookatsomeonesfaceandchatwiththemeventhoughtheyreontheothersideofthecountry,andworldsofotherinconceivablesorcery.ThisisallbeforeyoushowhimtheinternetorexplainthingsliketheInternationalSpaceStation,theLargeHadronCollider,nuclearweapons,orgeneralrelativity.

Thisexperienceforhimwouldntbesurprisingorshockingorevenmind-blowingthosewordsarentbigenough.Hemightactuallydie.

Butherestheinterestingthingifhethenwentbackto1750andgotjealousthatwegottoseehisreactionanddecidedhewantedtotrythesamething,hedtakethetimemachineandgobackthesamedistance,getsomeonefromaroundtheyear1500,bringhimto1750,andshowhimeverything.Andthe1500guywouldbeshockedbyalotofthingsbuthewouldntdie.Itwouldbefarlessofaninsaneexperienceforhim,becausewhile1500and1750wereverydifferent,theyweremuchlessdifferentthan1750to2015.The1500guywouldlearnsomemind-bendingshitaboutspaceandphysics,hedbeimpressedwithhowcommittedEuropeturnedouttobewiththatnewimperialismfad,andhedhavetodosomemajorrevisionsofhisworldmapconception.Butwatchingeverydaylifegobyin1750transportation,communication,etc.definitelywouldntmakehimdie.

No,inorderforthe1750guytohaveasmuchfunaswehadwithhim,hedhavetogomuchfartherbackmaybeallthewaybacktoabout12,000BC,beforetheFirstAgriculturalRevolutiongaverisetothefirstcitiesandtotheconceptofcivilization.Ifsomeonefromapurelyhunter-gathererworldfromatimewhenhumanswere,moreorless,justanotheranimalspeciessawthevasthumanempiresof1750withtheirtoweringchurches,theirocean-crossingships,theirconceptofbeinginside,andtheirenormousmountainofcollective,accumulatedhumanknowledgeanddiscoveryhedlikelydie.

Andthenwhatif,afterdying,hegotjealousandwantedtodothesamething.Ifhewentback12,000yearsto24,000BCandgotaguyandbroughthimto12,000BC,hedshowtheguyeverythingandtheguywouldbelike,Okaywhatsyourpointwhocares.Forthe12,000BCguytohavethesamefun,hedhavetogobackover100,000yearsandgetsomeonehecouldshowfireandlanguagetoforthefirsttime.

Inorderforsomeonetobetransportedintothefutureanddiefromthelevelofshocktheydexperience,theyhavetogoenoughyearsaheadthatadielevelofprogress,oraDieProgressUnit

PuttingTimeInPerspectiveUPDATED

446

TheAIRevolution:TheRoadtoSuperintelligence

679

HowtoNameaBaby

217

TamingtheMammoth:WhyYouShouldStopCaringWhatOtherPeopleThink

176

HowtoPickYourLifePartnerPart1

189

10TypesofOddFriendshipsYoureProbablyPartOf

176

EverythingYouDontKnowAboutTipping

714

ReligionfortheNonreligious

336

FromMuhammadtoISIS:IraqsFullStory

199

238kLike

62kLike

115kLike

28kLike

61kLike

29kLike

205kLike

10kLike

29kLike



(DPU)hasbeenachieved.SoaDPUtookover100,000yearsinhunter-gatherertimes,butatthepost-AgriculturalRevolutionrate,itonlytookabout12,000years.Thepost-IndustrialRevolutionworldhasmovedsoquicklythata1750persononlyneedstogoforwardacouplehundredyearsforaDPUtohavehappened.

ThispatternhumanprogressmovingquickerandquickerastimegoesoniswhatfuturistRayKurzweilcallshumanhistorysLawofAcceleratingReturns.Thishappensbecausemoreadvancedsocietieshavetheabilitytoprogressatafasterratethanlessadvancedsocietiesbecausetheyremoreadvanced.19thcenturyhumanityknewmoreandhadbettertechnologythan15thcenturyhumanity,soitsnosurprisethathumanitymadefarmoreadvancesinthe19thcenturythaninthe15thcentury15thcenturyhumanitywasnomatchfor19thcenturyhumanity.

Thisworksonsmallerscalestoo.ThemovieBacktotheFuturecameoutin1985,andthepasttookplacein1955.Inthemovie,whenMichaelJ.Foxwentbackto1955,hewascaughtoff-guardbythenewnessofTVs,thepricesofsoda,thelackofloveforshrillelectricguitar,andthevariationinslang.Itwasadifferentworld,yesbutifthemovieweremadetodayandthepasttookplacein1985,themoviecouldhavehadmuchmorefunwithmuchbiggerdifferences.Thecharacterwouldbeinatimebeforepersonalcomputers,internet,orcellphonestodaysMartyMcFly,ateenagerborninthelate90s,wouldbemuchmoreoutofplacein1985thanthemoviesMartyMcFlywasin1955.

ThisisforthesamereasonwejustdiscussedtheLawofAcceleratingReturns.Theaveragerateofadvancementbetween1985and2015washigherthantheratebetween1955and1985becausetheformerwasamoreadvancedworldsomuchmorechangehappenedinthemostrecent30yearsthanintheprior30.

Soadvancesaregettingbiggerandbiggerandhappeningmoreandmorequickly.Thissuggestssomeprettyintensethingsaboutourfuture,right?

Kurzweilsuggeststhattheprogressoftheentire20thcenturywouldhavebeenachievedinonly20yearsattherateofadvancementintheyear2000inotherwords,by2000,therateofprogresswasfivetimesfasterthantheaveragerateofprogressduringthe20thcentury.Hebelievesanother20thcenturysworthofprogresshappenedbetween2000and2014andthatanother20thcenturysworthofprogresswillhappenby2021,inonlysevenyears.Acoupledecadeslater,hebelievesa20thcenturysworthofprogresswillhappenmultipletimesinthesameyear,andevenlater,inlessthanonemonth.Allinall,becauseoftheLawofAcceleratingReturns,Kurzweilbelievesthatthe21stcenturywillachieve1,000timestheprogressofthe20thcentury.

IfKurzweilandotherswhoagreewithhimarecorrect,thenwemaybeasblownawayby2030asour1750guywasby2015i.e.thenextDPUmightonlytakeacoupledecadesandtheworldin2050mightbesovastlydifferentthantodaysworldthatwewouldbarelyrecognizeit.

Thisisntsciencefiction.ItswhatmanyscientistssmarterandmoreknowledgeablethanyouorIfirmlybelieveandifyoulookathistory,itswhatweshouldlogicallypredict.

Sothenwhy,whenyouhearmesaysomethingliketheworld35yearsfromnowmightbetotallyunrecognizable,areyouthinking,Cool.butnahhhhhhh?Threereasonswereskepticalofoutlandishforecastsofthefuture:

1)Whenitcomestohistory,wethinkinstraightlines.Whenweimaginetheprogressofthenext30years,welookbacktotheprogressoftheprevious30asanindicatorofhowmuchwilllikelyhappen.Whenwethinkabouttheextenttowhichtheworldwillchangeinthe21stcentury,wejusttakethe20thcenturyprogressandaddittotheyear2000.Thiswasthesamemistakeour1750guymadewhenhegotsomeonefrom1500andexpectedtoblowhismindasmuchashisownwasblowngoingthesamedistanceahead.Itsmostintuitiveforustothinklinearly,whenweshouldbethinkingexponentially.Ifsomeoneisbeingmorecleveraboutit,theymightpredicttheadvancesofthenext30yearsnotbylookingattheprevious30years,butbytakingthecurrentrateofprogressandjudgingbasedonthat.Theydbemoreaccurate,butstillwayoff.Inordertothinkaboutthefuturecorrectly,youneedtoimaginethingsmovingatamuchfasterratethantheyremovingnow.

openthese1 1

2



2)Thetrajectoryofveryrecenthistoryoftentellsadistortedstory.First,evenasteepexponentialcurveseemslinearwhenyouonlylookatatinysliceofit,thesamewayifyoulookatalittlesegmentofahugecircleupclose,itlooksalmostlikeastraightline.Second,exponentialgrowthisnttotallysmoothanduniform.KurzweilexplainsthatprogresshappensinS-curves:

AnSiscreatedbythewaveofprogresswhenanewparadigmsweepstheworld.Thecurvegoesthroughthreephases:

1.Slowgrowth(theearlyphaseofexponentialgrowth)2.Rapidgrowth(thelate,explosivephaseofexponentialgrowth)3.Alevelingoffastheparticularparadigmmatures

Ifyoulookonlyatveryrecenthistory,thepartoftheS-curveyoureonatthemomentcanobscureyourperceptionofhowfastthingsareadvancing.Thechunkoftimebetween1995and2007sawtheexplosionoftheinternet,theintroductionofMicrosoft,Google,andFacebookintothepublicconsciousness,thebirthofsocialnetworking,andtheintroductionofcellphonesandthensmartphones.ThatwasPhase2:thegrowthspurtpartoftheS.But2008to2015hasbeenlessgroundbreaking,atleastonthetechnologicalfront.Someonethinkingaboutthefuturetodaymightexaminethelastfewyearstogaugethecurrentrateofadvancement,butthatsmissingthebiggerpicture.Infact,anew,hugePhase2growthspurtmightbebrewingrightnow.

3)Ourownexperiencemakesusstubbornoldmenaboutthefuture.Webaseourideasabouttheworldonourpersonalexperience,andthatexperiencehasingrainedtherateofgrowthoftherecentpastinourheadsasthewaythingshappen.Werealsolimitedbyourimagination,whichtakesourexperienceandusesittoconjurefuturepredictionsbutoften,whatweknowsimplydoesntgiveusthetoolstothinkaccuratelyaboutthefuture. Whenwehearapredictionaboutthefuturethat

3

2



contradictsourexperience-basednotionofhowthingswork,ourinstinctisthatthepredictionmustbenaive.IfItellyou,laterinthispost,thatyoumaylivetobe150,or250,ornotdieatall,yourinstinctwillbe,ThatsstupidiftheresonethingIknowfromhistory,itsthateverybodydies.Andyes,nooneinthepasthasnotdied.Butnooneflewairplanesbeforeairplaneswereinventedeither.

Sowhilenahhhhhmightfeelrightasyoureadthispost,itsprobablyactuallywrong.Thefactis,ifwerebeingtrulylogicalandexpectinghistoricalpatternstocontinue,weshouldconcludethatmuch,much,muchmoreshouldchangeinthecomingdecadesthanweintuitivelyexpect.Logicalsosuggeststhatifthemostadvancedspeciesonaplanetkeepsmakinglargerandlargerleapsforwardatanever-fasterrate,atsomepoint,theyllmakealeapsogreatthatitcompletelyalterslifeastheyknowitandtheperceptiontheyhaveofwhatitmeanstobeahumankindoflikehowevolutionkeptmakinggreatleapstowardintelligenceuntilfinallyitmadesuchalargeleaptothehumanbeingthatitcompletelyalteredwhatitmeantforanycreaturetoliveonplanetEarth.Andifyouspendsometimereadingaboutwhatsgoingontodayinscienceandtechnology,youstarttoseealotofsignsquietlyhintingthatlifeaswecurrentlyknowitcannotwithstandtheleapthatscomingnext.

_______________

TheRoadtoSuperintelligenceWhatIsAI?Ifyourelikeme,youusedtothinkArtificialIntelligencewasasillysci-ficoncept,butlatelyyouvebeenhearingitmentionedbyseriouspeople,andyoudontreallyquitegetit.

TherearethreereasonsalotofpeopleareconfusedaboutthetermAI:

1)WeassociateAIwithmovies.StarWars.Terminator.2001:ASpaceOdyssey.EventheJetsons.Andthosearefiction,asaretherobotcharacters.SoitmakesAIsoundalittlefictionaltous.

2)AIisabroadtopic.Itrangesfromyourphonescalculatortoself-drivingcarstosomethinginthefuturethatmightchangetheworlddramatically.AIreferstoallofthesethings,whichisconfusing.

3)WeuseAIallthetimeinourdailylives,butweoftendontrealizeitsAI.JohnMcCarthy,whocoinedthetermArtificialIntelligencein1956,complainedthatassoonasitworks,noonecallsitAIanymore. Becauseofthisphenomenon,AIoftensoundslikeamythicalfuturepredictionmorethanareality.Atthesametime,itmakesitsoundlikeapopconceptfromthepastthatnevercametofruition.RayKurzweilsayshehearspeoplesaythatAIwitheredinthe1980s,whichhecomparestoinsistingthattheInternetdiedinthedot-combustoftheearly2000s.

Soletsclearthingsup.First,stopthinkingofrobots.ArobotisacontainerforAI,sometimesmimickingthehumanform,sometimesnotbuttheAIitselfisthecomputerinsidetherobot.AIisthebrain,andtherobotisitsbodyifitevenhasabody.Forexample,thesoftwareanddatabehindSiriisAI,thewomansvoicewehearisapersonificationofthatAI,andtheresnorobotinvolvedatall.

Secondly,youveprobablyheardthetermsingularityortechnologicalsingularity.Thistermhasbeenusedinmathtodescribeanasymptote-likesituationwherenormalrulesnolongerapply.Itsbeenusedinphysicstodescribeaphenomenonlikeaninfinitelysmall,denseblackholeorthepointwewereallsquishedintorightbeforetheBigBang.Again,situationswheretheusualrulesdontapply.In1993,VernorVingewroteafamousessayinwhichheappliedthetermtothemomentinthefuturewhenourtechnologysintelligenceexceedsourownamomentforhimwhenlifeasweknowitwillbeforeverchangedandnormalruleswillnolongerapply.RayKurzweilthenmuddledthingsabitbydefiningthesingularityasthetimewhentheLawofAcceleratingReturnshasreachedsuchanextremepacethattechnologicalprogressishappeningataseemingly-infinitepace,andafterwhichwellbelivinginawholenewworld.IfoundthatmanyoftodaysAIthinkershavestoppedusingtheterm,anditsconfusinganyway,soIwontuseitmuchhere(eventhoughwellbefocusingonthatideathroughout).

Finally,whiletherearemanydifferenttypesorformsofAIsinceAIisabroadconcept,thecriticalcategoriesweneedtothinkaboutarebasedonanAIscaliber.TherearethreemajorAIcalibercategories:

AICaliber1)ArtificialNarrowIntelligence(ANI):SometimesreferredtoasWeakAI,ArtificialNarrowIntelligenceisAIthatspecializesinonearea.TheresAIthatcanbeattheworldchesschampioninchess,butthatstheonlythingitdoes.Askittofigureoutabetterwaytostoredataonaharddrive,

4

5



anditlllookatyoublankly.

AICaliber2)ArtificialGeneralIntelligence(AGI):SometimesreferredtoasStrongAI,orHuman-LevelAI,ArtificialGeneralIntelligencereferstoacomputerthatisassmartasahumanacrosstheboardamachinethatcanperformanyintellectualtaskthatahumanbeingcan.CreatingAGIisamuchhardertaskthancreatingANI,andwereyettodoit.ProfessorLindaGottfredsondescribesintelligenceasaverygeneralmentalcapabilitythat,amongotherthings,involvestheabilitytoreason,plan,solveproblems,thinkabstractly,comprehendcomplexideas,learnquickly,andlearnfromexperience.AGIwouldbeabletodoallofthosethingsaseasilyasyoucan.

AICaliber3)ArtificialSuperintelligence(ASI):OxfordphilosopherandleadingAIthinkerNickBostromdefinessuperintelligenceasanintellectthatismuchsmarterthanthebesthumanbrainsinpracticallyeveryfield,includingscientificcreativity,generalwisdomandsocialskills.ArtificialSuperintelligencerangesfromacomputerthatsjustalittlesmarterthanahumantoonethatstrillionsoftimessmarteracrosstheboard.ASIisthereasonthetopicofAIissuchaspicymeatballandwhythewordsimmortalityandextinctionwillbothappearinthesepostsmultipletimes.

Asofnow,humanshaveconqueredthelowestcaliberofAIANIinmanyways,anditseverywhere.TheAIRevolutionistheroadfromANI,throughAGI,toASIaroadwemayormaynotsurvivebutthat,eitherway,willchangeeverything.

Letstakeacloselookatwhattheleadingthinkersinthefieldbelievethisroadlookslikeandwhythisrevolutionmighthappenwaysoonerthanyoumightthink:

WhereWeAreCurrentlyAWorldRunningonANIArtificialNarrowIntelligenceismachineintelligencethatequalsorexceedshumanintelligenceorefficiencyataspecificthing.Afewexamples:

CarsarefullofANIsystems,fromthecomputerthatfiguresoutwhentheanti-lockbrakesshouldkickintothecomputerthattunestheparametersofthefuelinjectionsystems.Googlesself-drivingcar,whichisbeingtestednow,willcontainrobustANIsystemsthatallowittoperceiveandreacttotheworldaroundit.YourphoneisalittleANIfactory.Whenyounavigateusingyourmapapp,receivetailoredmusicrecommendationsfromPandora,checktomorrowsweather,talktoSiri,ordozensofothereverydayactivities,youreusingANI.YouremailspamfilterisaclassictypeofANIitstartsoffloadedwithintelligenceabouthowtofigureoutwhatsspamandwhatsnot,andthenitlearnsandtailorsitsintelligencetoyouasitgetsexperiencewithyourparticularpreferences.TheNestThermostatdoesthesamethingasitstartstofigureoutyourtypicalroutineandactaccordingly.YouknowthewholecreepythingthatgoesonwhenyousearchforaproductonAmazonandthenyouseethatasarecommendedforyouproductonadifferentsite,orwhenFacebooksomehowknowswhoitmakessenseforyoutoaddasafriend?ThatsanetworkofANIsystems,workingtogethertoinformeachotheraboutwhoyouareandwhatyoulikeandthenusingthatinformationtodecidewhattoshowyou.SamegoesforAmazonsPeoplewhoboughtthisalsoboughtthingthatsanANIsystemwhosejobitistogatherinfofromthebehaviorofmillionsofcustomersandsynthesizethatinfotocleverlyupsellyousoyoullbuymorethings.GoogleTranslateisanotherclassicANIsystemimpressivelygoodatonenarrowtask.Voicerecognitionisanother,andthereareabunchofappsthatusethosetwoANIsasatagteam,allowingyoutospeakasentenceinonelanguageandhavethephonespitoutthesamesentenceinanother.Whenyourplanelands,itsnotahumanthatdecideswhichgateitshouldgoto.Justlikeitsnotahumanthatdeterminedthepriceofyourticket.TheworldsbestCheckers,Chess,Scrabble,Backgammon,andOthelloplayersarenowallANIsystems.GooglesearchisonelargeANIbrainwithincrediblysophisticatedmethodsforrankingpagesandfiguringoutwhattoshowyouinparticular.SamegoesforFacebooksNewsfeed.Andthosearejustintheconsumerworld.SophisticatedANIsystemsarewidelyusedinsectorsandindustrieslikemilitary,manufacturing,andfinance(algorithmichigh-frequencyAItradersaccountformorethanhalfofequitysharestradedonUSmarkets ),andinexpertsystemslikethosethathelpdoctorsmakediagnosesand,mostfamously,IBMsWatson,whocontainedenoughfactsandunderstoodcoyTrebek-speakwellenoughtosoundlybeatthemostprolificJeopardychampions.

6



ANIsystemsastheyarenowarentespeciallyscary.Atworst,aglitchyorbadly-programmedANIcancauseanisolatedcatastrophelikeknockingoutapowergrid,causingaharmfulnuclearpowerplantmalfunction,ortriggeringafinancialmarketsdisaster(likethe2010FlashCrashwhenanANIprogramreactedthewrongwaytoanunexpectedsituationandcausedthestockmarkettobrieflyplummet,taking$1trillionofmarketvaluewithit,onlypartofwhichwasrecoveredwhenthemistakewascorrected).

ButwhileANIdoesnthavethecapabilitytocauseanexistentialthreat,weshouldseethisincreasinglylargeandcomplexecosystemofrelatively-harmlessANIasaprecursoroftheworld-alteringhurricanethatsontheway.EachnewANIinnovationquietlyaddsanotherbrickontotheroadtoAGIandASI.OrasAaronSaenzseesit,ourworldsANIsystemsareliketheaminoacidsintheearlyEarthsprimordialoozetheinanimatestuffoflifethat,oneunexpectedday,wokeup.

TheRoadFromANItoAGI

WhyItsSoHard

Nothingwillmakeyouappreciatehumanintelligencelikelearningabouthowunbelievablychallengingitistotrytocreateacomputerassmartasweare.Buildingskyscrapers,puttinghumansinspace,figuringoutthedetailsofhowtheBigBangwentdownallfareasierthanunderstandingourownbrainorhowtomakesomethingascoolasit.Asofnow,thehumanbrainisthemostcomplexobjectintheknownuniverse.

WhatsinterestingisthatthehardpartsoftryingtobuildAGI(acomputerassmartashumansingeneral,notjustatonenarrowspecialty)arenotintuitivelywhatyoudthinktheyare.Buildacomputerthatcanmultiplytwoten-digitnumbersinasplitsecondincrediblyeasy.Buildonethatcanlookatadogandanswerwhetheritsadogoracatspectacularlydifficult.MakeAIthatcanbeatanyhumaninchess?Done.Makeonethatcanreadaparagraphfromasix-year-oldspicturebookandnotjustrecognizethewordsbutunderstandthemeaningofthem?Googleiscurrentlyspendingbillionsofdollarstryingtodoit.Hardthingslikecalculus,financialmarketstrategy,andlanguagetranslationaremind-numbinglyeasyforacomputer,whileeasythingslikevision,motion,movement,andperceptionareinsanelyhardforit.Or,ascomputerscientistDonaldKnuthputsit,AIhasbynowsucceededindoingessentiallyeverythingthatrequiresthinkingbuthasfailedtodomostofwhatpeopleandanimalsdowithoutthinking.'

Whatyouquicklyrealizewhenyouthinkaboutthisisthatthosethingsthatseemeasytousareactuallyunbelievablycomplicated,andtheyonlyseemeasybecausethoseskillshavebeenoptimizedinus(andmostanimals)byhundredsofmillionyearsofanimalevolution.Whenyoureachyourhanduptowardanobject,themuscles,tendons,andbonesinyourshoulder,elbow,andwristinstantlyperformalongseriesofphysicsoperations,inconjunctionwithyoureyes,toallowyoutomoveyourhandinastraightlinethroughthreedimensions.Itseemseffortlesstoyoubecauseyouhaveperfectedsoftwareinyourbrainfordoingit.Sameideagoesforwhyitsnotthatmalwareisdumbfornotbeingabletofigureouttheslantywordrecognitiontestwhenyousignupforanewaccountonasiteitsthatyourbrainissuperimpressiveforbeingableto.

Ontheotherhand,multiplyingbignumbersorplayingchessarenewactivitiesforbiologicalcreaturesandwehaventhadanytimetoevolveaproficiencyatthem,soacomputerdoesntneedtoworktoohardtobeatus.Thinkaboutitwhichwouldyouratherdo,buildaprogramthatcouldmultiplybignumbersoronethatcouldunderstandtheessenceofaBwellenoughthatyoucouldshowitaBinanyoneofthousandsofunpredictablefontsorhandwritinganditcouldinstantlyknowitwasaB?

Onefunexamplewhenyoulookatthis,youandacomputerbothcanfigureoutthatitsarectanglewithtwodistinctshades,alternating:

7



Tiedsofar.Butifyoupickuptheblackandrevealthewholeimage

youhavenoproblemgivingafulldescriptionofthevariousopaqueandtranslucentcylinders,slats,and3-Dcorners,butthecomputerwouldfailmiserably.Itwoulddescribewhatitseesavarietyoftwo-dimensionalshapesinseveraldifferentshadeswhichisactuallywhatsthere.Yourbrainisdoingatonoffancyshittointerprettheimplieddepth,shade-mixing,androomlightingthepictureistryingtoportray. Andlookingatthepicturebelow,acomputerseesatwo-dimensionalwhite,black,andgraycollage,whileyoueasilyseewhatitreallyisaphotoofanentirely-black,3-Drock:

Credit:MatthewLloyd

Andeverythingwejustmentionedisstillonlytakinginstagnantinformationandprocessingit.Tobehuman-levelintelligent,acomputerwouldhavetounderstandthingslikethedifferencebetweensubtlefacialexpressions,thedistinctionbetweenbeingpleased,relieved,content,satisfied,andglad,andwhyBraveheartwasgreatbutThePatriotwasterrible.

Daunting.

Sohowdowegetthere?

8



FirstKeytoCreatingAGI:IncreasingComputationalPower

OnethingthatdefinitelyneedstohappenforAGItobeapossibilityisanincreaseinthepowerofcomputerhardware.IfanAIsystemisgoingtobeasintelligentasthebrain,itllneedtoequalthebrainsrawcomputingcapacity.

Onewaytoexpressthiscapacityisinthetotalcalculationspersecond(cps)thebraincouldmanage,andyoucouldcometothisnumberbyfiguringoutthemaximumcpsofeachstructureinthebrainandthenaddingthemalltogether.

RayKurzweilcameupwithashortcutbytakingsomeonesprofessionalestimateforthecpsofonestructureandthatstructuresweightcomparedtothatofthewholebrainandthenmultiplyingproportionallytogetanestimateforthetotal.Soundsalittleiffy,buthedidthisabunchoftimeswithvariousprofessionalestimatesofdifferentregions,andthetotalalwaysarrivedinthesameballparkaround10 ,or10quadrillioncps.

Currently,theworldsfastestsupercomputer,ChinasTianhe-2,hasactuallybeatenthatnumber,clockinginatabout34quadrillioncps.ButTianhe-2isalsoadick,takingup720squaremetersofspace,using24megawattsofpower(thebrainrunsonjust20watts),andcosting$390milliontobuild.Notespeciallyapplicabletowideusage,orevenmostcommercialorindustrialusageyet.

Kurzweilsuggeststhatwethinkaboutthestateofcomputersbylookingathowmanycpsyoucanbuyfor$1,000.Whenthatnumberreacheshuman-level10quadrillioncpsthenthatllmeanAGIcouldbecomeaveryrealpartoflife.

MooresLawisahistorically-reliablerulethattheworldsmaximumcomputingpowerdoublesapproximatelyeverytwoyears,meaningcomputerhardwareadvancement,likegeneralhumanadvancementthroughhistory,growsexponentially.LookingathowthisrelatestoKurzweilscps/$1,000metric,werecurrentlyatabout10trillioncps/$1,000,rightonpacewiththisgraphspredictedtrajectory:

Sotheworlds$1,000computersarenowbeatingthemousebrainandtheyreataboutathousandthofhumanlevel.Thisdoesntsoundlikemuchuntilyourememberthatwewereataboutatrillionthofhumanlevelin1985,abillionthin1995,andamillionthin2005.Beingatathousandthin2015putsusrightonpacetogettoanaffordablecomputerby2025thatrivalsthepowerofthebrain.

Soonthehardwareside,therawpowerneededforAGIistechnicallyavailablenow,inChina,andwellbereadyforaffordable,widespreadAGI-caliberhardwarewithin10years.Butrawcomputationalpoweralonedoesntmakeacomputergenerallyintelligentthenextquestionis,howdowebringhuman-levelintelligencetoallthatpower?

16

9



SecondKeytoCreatingAGI:MakingitSmart

Thisistheickypart.Thetruthis,noonereallyknowshowtomakeitsmartwerestilldebatinghowtomakeacomputerhuman-levelintelligentandcapableofknowingwhatadogandaweird-writtenBandamediocremovieis.Butthereareabunchoffar-fetchedstrategiesoutthereandatsomepoint,oneofthemwillwork.HerearethethreemostcommonstrategiesIcameacross:

1)Plagiarizethebrain.

Thisislikescientiststoilingoverhowthatkidwhositsnexttotheminclassissosmartandkeepsdoingsowellonthetests,andeventhoughtheykeepstudyingdiligently,theycantdonearlyaswellasthatkid,andthentheyfinallydecidekfuckitImjustgonnacopythatkidsanswers.Itmakessensewerestumpedtryingtobuildasuper-complexcomputer,andtherehappenstobeaperfectprototypeforoneineachofourheads.

Thescienceworldisworkinghardonreverseengineeringthebraintofigureouthowevolutionmadesucharadthingoptimisticestimatessaywecandothisby2030.Oncewedothat,wellknowallthesecretsofhowthebrainrunssopowerfullyandefficientlyandwecandrawinspirationfromitandstealitsinnovations.Oneexampleofcomputerarchitecturethatmimicsthebrainistheartificialneuralnetwork.Itstartsoutasanetworkoftransistorneurons,connectedtoeachotherwithinputsandoutputs,anditknowsnothinglikeaninfantbrain.Thewayitlearnsisittriestodoatask,sayhandwritingrecognition,andatfirst,itsneuralfiringsandsubsequentguessesatdecipheringeachletterwillbecompletelyrandom.Butwhenitstolditgotsomethingright,thetransistorconnectionsinthefiringpathwaysthathappenedtocreatethatanswerarestrengthened;whenitstolditwaswrong,thosepathwaysconnectionsareweakened.Afteralotofthistrialandfeedback,thenetworkhas,byitself,formedsmartneuralpathwaysandthemachinehasbecomeoptimizedforthetask.Thebrainlearnsabitlikethisbutinamoresophisticatedway,andaswecontinuetostudythebrain,werediscoveringingeniousnewwaystotakeadvantageofneuralcircuitry.

Moreextremeplagiarisminvolvesastrategycalledwholebrainemulation,wherethegoalistoslicearealbrainintothinlayers,scaneachone,usesoftwaretoassembleanaccuratereconstructed3-Dmodel,andthenimplementthemodelonapowerfulcomputer.Wedthenhaveacomputerofficiallycapableofeverythingthebrainiscapableofitwouldjustneedtolearnandgatherinformation.Ifengineersgetreallygood,theydbeabletoemulatearealbrainwithsuchexactaccuracythatthebrainsfullpersonalityandmemorywouldbeintactoncethebrainarchitecturehasbeenuploadedtoacomputer.IfthebrainbelongedtoJimrightbeforehepassedaway,thecomputerwouldnowwakeupasJim(?),whichwouldbearobusthuman-levelAGI,andwecouldnowworkonturningJimintoanunimaginablysmartASI,whichhedprobablybereallyexcitedabout.

Howfararewefromachievingwholebrainemulation?Wellsofar,wevenotyetjustrecentlybeenabletoemulatea1mm-longflatwormbrain,whichconsistsofjust302totalneurons.Thehumanbraincontains100billion.Ifthatmakesitseemlikeahopelessproject,rememberthepowerofexponentialprogressnowthatweveconqueredthetinywormbrain,anantmighthappenbeforetoolong,followedbyamouse,andsuddenlythiswillseemmuchmoreplausible.

2)Trytomakeevolutiondowhatitdidbeforebutforusthistime.

Soifwedecidethesmartkidstestistoohardtocopy,wecantrytocopythewayhestudiesforthetestsinstead.

Heressomethingweknow.Buildingacomputeraspowerfulasthebrainispossibleourownbrainsevolutionisproof.Andifthebrainisjusttoocomplexforustoemulate,wecouldtrytoemulateevolutioninstead.Thefactis,evenifwecanemulateabrain,thatmightbeliketryingtobuildanairplanebycopyingabirdswing-flappingmotionsoften,machinesarebestdesignedusingafresh,machine-orientedapproach,notbymimickingbiologyexactly.

SohowcanwesimulateevolutiontobuildAGI?Themethod,calledgeneticalgorithms,wouldworksomethinglikethis:therewouldbeaperformance-and-evaluationprocessthatwouldhappenagainandagain(thesamewaybiologicalcreaturesperformbylivinglifeandareevaluatedbywhethertheymanagetoreproduceornot).Agroupofcomputerswouldtrytodotasks,andthemostsuccessfuloneswouldbebredwitheachotherbyhavinghalfofeachoftheirprogrammingmergedtogetherintoanewcomputer.Thelesssuccessfuloneswouldbeeliminated.Overmany,manyiterations,thisnaturalselectionprocesswouldproducebetterandbettercomputers.Thechallengewouldbecreatinganautomatedevaluationandbreedingcyclesothisevolutionprocesscouldrunonitsown.



Thedownsideofcopyingevolutionisthatevolutionlikestotakeabillionyearstodothingsandwewanttodothisinafewdecades.

Butwehavealotofadvantagesoverevolution.First,evolutionhasnoforesightandworksrandomlyitproducesmoreunhelpfulmutationsthanhelpfulones,butwewouldcontroltheprocesssoitwouldonlybedrivenbybeneficialglitchesandtargetedtweaks.Secondly,evolutiondoesntaimforanything,includingintelligencesometimesanenvironmentmightevenselectagainsthigherintelligence(sinceitusesalotofenergy).We,ontheotherhand,couldspecificallydirectthisevolutionaryprocesstowardincreasingintelligence.Third,toselectforintelligence,evolutionhastoinnovateinabunchofotherwaystofacilitateintelligencelikerevampingthewayscellsproduceenergywhenwecanremovethoseextraburdensandusethingslikeelectricity.Itsnodoubtwedbemuch,muchfasterthanevolutionbutitsstillnotclearwhetherwellbeabletoimproveuponevolutionenoughtomakethisaviablestrategy.

3)Makethiswholethingthecomputersproblem,notours.

Thisiswhenscientistsgetdesperateandtrytoprogramthetesttotakeitself.Butitmightbethemostpromisingmethodwehave.

TheideaisthatwedbuildacomputerwhosetwomajorskillswouldbedoingresearchonAIandcodingchangesintoitselfallowingittonotonlylearnbuttoimproveitsownarchitecture.Wedteachcomputerstobecomputerscientistssotheycouldbootstraptheirowndevelopment.Andthatwouldbetheirmainjobfiguringouthowtomakethemselvessmarter.Moreonthislater.

AllofThisCouldHappenSoon

Rapidadvancementsinhardwareandinnovativeexperimentationwithsoftwarearehappeningsimultaneously,andAGIcouldcreepuponusquicklyandunexpectedlyfortwomainreasons:

1)ExponentialgrowthisintenseandwhatseemslikeasnailspaceofadvancementcanquicklyraceupwardsthisGIFillustratesthisconceptnicely:

Source

2)Whenitcomestosoftware,progresscanseemslow,butthenoneepiphanycaninstantlychangetherateofadvancement(kindoflikethewayscience,duringthetimehumansthoughttheuniversewasgeocentric,washavingdifficultycalculatinghowtheuniverseworked,butthenthediscoverythatitwasheliocentricsuddenlymadeeverythingmucheasier).Or,whenitcomestosomethinglikeacomputerthatimprovesitself,wemightseemfarawaybutactuallybejustonetweakofthesystemawayfromhavingitbecome1,000timesmoreeffectiveandzoomingupwardtohuman-levelintelligence.

TheRoadFromAGItoASIAtsomepoint,wellhaveachievedAGIcomputerswithhuman-levelgeneralintelligence.Justabunchofpeopleandcomputerslivingtogetherinequality.

Ohactuallynotatall.

Thethingis,AGIwithanidenticallevelofintelligenceandcomputationalcapacityasahumanwould



stillhavesignificantadvantagesoverhumans.Like:

Hardware:

Speed.Thebrainsneuronsmaxoutataround200Hz,whiletodaysmicroprocessors(whicharemuchslowerthantheywillbewhenwereachAGI)runat2GHz,or10milliontimesfasterthanourneurons.Andthebrainsinternalcommunications,whichcanmoveatabout120m/s,arehorriblyoutmatchedbyacomputersabilitytocommunicateopticallyatthespeedoflight.Sizeandstorage.Thebrainislockedintoitssizebytheshapeofourskulls,anditcouldntgetmuchbiggeranyway,orthe120m/sinternalcommunicationswouldtaketoolongtogetfromonebrainstructuretoanother.Computerscanexpandtoanyphysicalsize,allowingfarmorehardwaretobeputtowork,amuchlargerworkingmemory(RAM),andalongtermmemory(harddrivestorage)thathasbothfargreatercapacityandprecisionthanourown.Reliabilityanddurability.Itsnotonlythememoriesofacomputerthatwouldbemoreprecise.Computertransistorsaremoreaccuratethanbiologicalneurons,andtheyrelesslikelytodeteriorate(andcanberepairedorreplacediftheydo).Humanbrainsalsogetfatiguedeasily,whilecomputerscanrunnonstop,atpeakperformance,24/7.

Software:

Editability,upgradability,andawiderbreadthofpossibility.Unlikethehumanbrain,computersoftwarecanreceiveupdatesandfixesandcanbeeasilyexperimentedon.Theupgradescouldalsospantoareaswherehumanbrainsareweak.Humanvisionsoftwareissuperblyadvanced,whileitscomplexengineeringcapabilityisprettylow-grade.Computerscouldmatchthehumanonvisionsoftwarebutcouldalsobecomeequallyoptimizedinengineeringandanyotherarea.Collectivecapability.Humanscrushallotherspeciesatbuildingavastcollectiveintelligence.Beginningwiththedevelopmentoflanguageandtheformingoflarge,densecommunities,advancingthroughtheinventionsofwritingandprinting,andnowintensifiedthroughtoolsliketheinternet,humanityscollectiveintelligenceisoneofthemajorreasonswevebeenabletogetsofaraheadofallotherspecies.Andcomputerswillbewaybetteratitthanweare.AworldwidenetworkofAIrunningaparticularprogramcouldregularlysyncwithitselfsothatanythinganyonecomputerlearnedwouldbeinstantlyuploadedtoallothercomputers.Thegroupcouldalsotakeononegoalasaunit,becausetherewouldntnecessarilybedissentingopinionsandmotivationsandself-interest,likewehavewithinthehumanpopulation.

AI,whichwilllikelygettoAGIbybeingprogrammedtoself-improve,wouldntseehuman-levelintelligenceassomeimportantmilestoneitsonlyarelevantmarkerfromourpointofviewandwouldnthaveanyreasontostopatourlevel.Andgiventheadvantagesoverusthatevenhumanintelligence-equivalentAGIwouldhave,itsprettyobviousthatitwouldonlyhithumanintelligenceforabriefinstantbeforeracingonwardstotherealmofsuperior-to-humanintelligence.

Thismayshocktheshitoutofuswhenithappens.Thereasonisthatfromourperspective,A)whiletheintelligenceofdifferentkindsofanimalsvaries,themaincharacteristicwereawareofaboutanyanimalsintelligenceisthatitsfarlowerthanours,andB)weviewthesmartesthumansasWAYsmarterthanthedumbesthumans.Kindoflikethis:

10



SoasAIzoomsupwardinintelligencetowardus,wellseeitassimplybecomingsmarter,forananimal.Then,whenithitsthelowestcapacityofhumanityNickBostromusesthetermthevillageidiotwellbelike,Ohwow,itslikeadumbhuman.Cute!Theonlythingis,inthegrandspectrumofintelligence,allhumans,fromthevillageidiottoEinstein,arewithinaverysmallrangesojustafterhittingvillageidiot-levelandbeingdeclaredtobeAGI,itllsuddenlybesmarterthanEinsteinandwewontknowwhathitus:

Andwhathappensafterthat?

AnIntelligenceExplosion

Ihopeyouenjoyednormaltime,becausethisiswhenthistopicgetsunnormalandscary,anditsgonnastaythatwayfromhereforward.IwanttopauseheretoremindyouthateverysinglethingImgoingtosayisrealrealscienceandrealforecastsofthefuturefromalargearrayofthemostrespectedthinkersandscientists.Justkeeprememberingthat.

Anyway,asIsaidabove,mostofourcurrentmodelsforgettingtoAGIinvolvetheAIgettingtherebyself-improvement.AndonceitgetstoAGI,evensystemsthatformedandgrewthroughmethodsthatdidntinvolveself-improvementwouldnowbesmartenoughtobeginself-improvingiftheywantedto.

Andhereswherewegettoanintenseconcept:recursiveself-improvement.Itworkslikethis

3



AnAIsystematacertainlevelletssayhumanvillageidiotisprogrammedwiththegoalofimprovingitsownintelligence.Onceitdoes,itssmartermaybeatthispointitsatEinsteinslevelsonowwhenitworkstoimproveitsintelligence,withanEinstein-levelintellect,ithasaneasiertimeanditcanmakebiggerleaps.Theseleapsmakeitmuchsmarterthananyhuman,allowingittomakeevenbiggerleaps.Astheleapsgrowlargerandhappenmorerapidly,theAGIsoarsupwardsinintelligenceandsoonreachesthesuperintelligentlevelofanASIsystem.ThisiscalledanIntelligenceExplosion,anditstheultimateexampleofTheLawofAcceleratingReturns.

ThereissomedebateabouthowsoonAIwillreachhuman-levelgeneralintelligencethemedianyearonasurveyofhundredsofscientistsaboutwhentheybelievedwedbemorelikelythannottohavereachedAGIwas2040 thatsonly25yearsfromnow,whichdoesntsoundthathugeuntilyouconsiderthatmanyofthethinkersinthisfieldthinkitslikelythattheprogressionfromAGItoASIhappensveryquickly.Likethiscouldhappen:

IttakesdecadesforthefirstAIsystemtoreachlow-levelgeneralintelligence,butitfinallyhappens.Acomputerisabletounderstandtheworldarounditaswellasahumanfour-year-old.Suddenly,withinanhourofhittingthatmilestone,thesystempumpsoutthegrandtheoryofphysicsthatunifiesgeneralrelativityandquantummechanics,somethingnohumanhasbeenabletodefinitivelydo.90minutesafterthat,theAIhasbecomeanASI,170,000timesmoreintelligentthanahuman.

Superintelligenceofthatmagnitudeisnotsomethingwecanremotelygrasp,anymorethanabumblebeecanwrapitsheadaroundKeynesianEconomics.Inourworld,smartmeansa130IQandstupidmeansan85IQwedonthaveawordforanIQof12,952.

WhatwedoknowisthathumansutterdominanceonthisEarthsuggestsaclearrule:withintelligencecomespower.WhichmeansanASI,whenwecreateit,willbethemostpowerfulbeinginthehistoryoflifeonEarth,andalllivingthings,includinghumans,willbeentirelyatitswhimandthismighthappeninthenextfewdecades.

Ifourmeagerbrainswereabletoinventwifi,thensomething100or1,000or1billiontimessmarterthanweareshouldhavenoproblemcontrollingthepositioningofeachandeveryatomintheworldinanywayitlikes,atanytimeeverythingweconsidermagic,everypowerweimagineasupremeGodtohavewillbeasmundaneanactivityfortheASIasflippingonalightswitchisforus.Creatingthetechnologytoreversehumanaging,curingdiseaseandhungerandevenmortality,reprogrammingtheweathertoprotectthefutureoflifeonEarthallsuddenlypossible.AlsopossibleistheimmediateendofalllifeonEarth.Asfaraswereconcerned,ifanASIcomestobeing,thereisnowanomnipotentGodonEarthandtheall-importantquestionforusis:

WillitbeaniceGod?

ThatsthetopicofPart2ofthispost.

___________

SourcesatthebottomofPart2.

RelatedWaitButWhyPosts

TheFermiParadoxWhydontweseeanysignsofalienlife?PuttingTimeinPerspectiveAvisuallookatthehistoryoftimesincetheBigBangOrforsomethingtotallydifferentandyetsomehowrelated,WhyProcrastinatorsProcrastinate

AndheresYear1ofWaitButWhyonanebook.

12753 StumbleUpon62kLike Share 105

11

12

Tweet 7,321 1point

50.4kShares

29k

10.2k

the ai revolution_ road to superintelligence - wait but why

Documents