the 2oc sustainable development pathway · national and kapodistrian university of athens –...

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

The 2oC sustainable development pathway (The triple challenge)

Prof. Dimitrios Mavrakis Director of KEPA

MOWE – IT REGIONAL CONFERENCE MANAGEMENT OF WEATHER EVENTS IN THE TRANSPORT SYSTEMS

THESSALONIKI, 15-16 SEPTEMBER 2014

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Contents

1. In the eve of COP 21

1. Trends in fundamentals

(Population, Primary Energy Demand, GHG emissions,

GDP )

2. The triple challenge (Mitigation, Adaptation, Sustainable Development)

2. From dispute to convergence

1. FVA, NMM, NAMA, ETS

3. The share of responsibility Hellas, photos by Camelia Vasile


Trends in fundamentals Projected world population (1950 – 2100)

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs -http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm

Trends in world economy 2014 : 7,2 bln $90 trln 2050 : 9,3 bln $280 trln The Challenge of Deep Decarbonisation By Jeffrey Sachs

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm


Trends in fundamentals Projected growth in primary energy demand (2010 – 2035)

Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to

2035, with China and India accounting for 50% of the

growth

Source: IEA

Share of global growth Growth in total energy demand


Trends in fundamentals Oil growth in the transport sector


Trends in fundamentals GHG emissions (Historical and baseline 2010 – 2050)

Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from ENV-Linkages.


Trends in fundamentals Sustainable (?) development

• Uneven wealth distribution

– 50% of global wealth is possessed by 2%

• World economy*, 2014 2050 7.2biln 9.3biln $ 90 trill $280 trill1 170 kgoe /$1000output

1:Measured in purchasing power adjusted prices

*Source: Jeffrey Sachs, UN Sustainable development solutions Network


In the eve of COP 21 (Paris 2015)

Baseline scenarios foresee increase 3-6 0C in global temperature till the end of 2100

The increase in global temperature should be

below 2°C1

1: 15th COP Copenhagen 2009


The triple challenge Mitigation : GHG emissions targeting 1.5-2°C

Target (2020): 44 GtCO2e BAU (2020) : 56 GtCO2e The gap: 12 GtCO2e Int. pledges: 49 GtCO2e A likely gap: 5 GtCO2e* *(GHG emissions of cars, buses, transport

2005) Source: Emissions Gap report 2012, UNEP

2012

BAU (2050) vs. 20C 170 (31) kgoe for $1000 output 1 toe produces 2.4(1.5) tCO2 Source: Jeffrey Sachs, UN Sustainable

development solutions Network

Source: UNEP (2013)


The triple challenge Adaptation: not exceeding the 2°C level


The triple challenge Sustainable Development (2050)

Equitable development

Resource efficiency

Energy efficiency from:

170kgoe/$1000 to 31kgoe/1000

Emissions from: 2.4 tonCO2 /1tonoe to

1.5tonCO2 /1tonoe


From dispute to convergence

The Kyoto Protocol Rich vs. Poor

countries

Investment transfer

The mechanisms ETS, JI, CDM

The results Limited impact

Lessons learnt

Carbon Price collapse

From Kyoto to Paris Trend for stronger

commitments

Market and non market approaches

Coverage of both developed and developing countries

Bottom up (FVA)


From dispute to convergence Framework for Various Approaches (FVA) under UNFCCC

With the aim to promote cost effectiveness of mitigation actions:

Parties may individually or jointly develop and implement such approaches in accordance with their national circumstances which may include the following:

Bilateral, domestic, voluntary offset programs

Sub-national, national and regional trading systems

Other market and non market approaches

Durban 1/cp 17-Preamble of Section E


From dispute to convergence Framework for Various Approaches (FVA)

NMM in Charts IGES - JAPAN


From dispute to convergence New Market Mechanism (NMM) Components


From dispute to convergence Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA)

CONCEPT: Voluntary actions taken by developing countries to reduce GHG emissions to levels below those of “Business as

Usual” (BAU) Categories:

•Unilateral Domestic financing

•Supported Domestic sources to leverage international financing

•Credited Generation and sale of carbon credits

Types: •Policy (regulated, incentives, disincentives)

•Project (specific investments)

NAMA development process

1. A “prompt start” (World Bank) • Build domestic knowledge and capacities • Develop domestic institutional capacity

2. Conceptualization • Feasible and desirable priorities, modalities,

policy instruments • Funding issues • Baselines, mitigation scenarios • Benefits, co-benefits • Outline of a MRV system

3. Development • Status quo of GHG emissions • Formalizing MRV mechanism • Engaging financial stakeholders • Documentation

4. Implementation • The activity is launched • Legal/institutional framework is set into motion


From dispute to convergence Evolution trends in ETS

World Bank and Ecofys (2013)


From dispute to convergence Likely evolution of ETS

Carbon Pricing Scenarios July 2013 PROMETHIUM


The share of responsibility

Participation in the global efforts to develop and implement converging pathways of green sustainable development, securing a well being future and easing social tensions, conflicts, mass migration and actions of despair

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre 20

E-mail: [email protected].

Tel. + 30 210 727 5732

Thank you for your attention

KEPA in Athens - Greece

mailto:[email protected]

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