The 2022 Active Shooter Threat Landscape: Risks and Resources

© Everbridge, Inc. Confidential & Proprietary. 2

Speakers

Steven M. Crimando, Principal and Founder Behavioral Science Applications LLC

Michael Collar, Director, Industry SolutionsEverbridge

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BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE APPLICATIONS LLC

The Human Face of Homeland Security™

The 2022 Active Shooter Threat Landscape: Risks and Resources

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The Evolving Active Shooter Threat Landscape

• Along side of a constant stream of information about COVID-19, stories of workplace violence and mass shootings dominated the news throughout 2021.

• Three of the ten deadliest workplace shootings of the last 40 years occurred in the first six months of 2021 alone.

• According to the most recent report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, violence is now the third leading cause death on the job in the U.S.

• Looking to the challenges of 2022, it is critical that employers review their approach to violence prevention and active assailant preparedness.

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Overall Increases in Violence• New data reports increases in violence during the

pandemic.

• The FBI's Uniform Crime Report for 2020 shows that homicides increased nearly 30 percent last year from 2019.

• This data marks the first time in four years violent crimes in the U.S. increased from the previous year.

• A recent California study also reported an increase in violence in their communities during the pandemic.

• Threats with a weapon increased from 4 percent in 2020 to 7 percent in 2021.

• Past year reports of violence for females doubled from 3 percent in 2020 to 6 percent in 2021.

SOURCE | FBI

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How Does This Affect Safety, Security & Business Continuity? • We are in, and will likely remain in, a very complex and

dynamic active shooter threat landscape. It is unlike any other period of time in our recent history.

• Although many, if not most, organizations have developed robust strategies and tactics for the prevention and response to this type of hazard, the nature of the threat is changing.

• There are four fact patterns that should inform your thinking about the near-term active shooter risks for your organization.

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Fact Pattern 1• The most recent FBI report on active shooter

incidents indicates that the number of attacks doubled from 2016 to 2020, and there has already been a 20% increase over that record high for 2021.

• The number of active shooter incidents identified in 2020 represents a 33% increase from 2019 and a 100% increase from 2016.”

• There is a clear upward trend in the number of active shooter incidents each year and this trend is likely to continue in the near term.

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Fact Pattern 2Another FBI study identified mental health issues as the leading stressor associated with active shooter incidents.

• While all major studies focused on the relationship between mental illness and violence consistently find that individuals with mental illnesses are no more likely to engage in violence than anyone else, there is solid evidence that those who do progress down the pathway to violence are often struggling with their mental health.

• At present, an estimated 26% of Americans ages 18 and older —about 1 in 4 adults suffer from a diagnosable mental disorder in a given year.

• SAMHSA has forecast that mental health and substance use disorders (M/SUDs) will soon surpass all other types of disability.

• Mental illnesses are common and increasing in their prevalence. Mental health stressors are a recognized precipitants in active shooter incidents.

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Fact Pattern 3• The American Psychological Association’s annual Stress

in America poll indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has already resulted in significant mental health distress with nearly half (48%) of those surveyed stating that their level of stress has increased compared with before the pandemic. Those who believe their mental health has suffered include:

• Gen Z adults (46%) • Gen Xers (33%), • Millennials (31%), • Boomers (28%), • Older adults (9%).

• Baseline mental health has declined during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Fact Pattern 4• Research on post-pandemic mental health effects

suggests a dramatic increase in the need for mental health care even well after the disease is controlled.

• For example, research in the UK by the National Health Service and Centre for Mental Health predicts that levels of demand will likely reach two to three times that of current capacity within the 3 to 5-year post-pandemic window.

• It is foreseeable that the mental health impact of the pandemic may linger for years, even decades after the medical risk has been contained.

• The mental health consequences of the pandemic are just beginning to surface and will like emerge to be as great or greater than the challenges of managing the medical risks of COVID-19.

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A Balanced Perspective

The threat landscape has shifted for both insider and outsider threats.

Insider Threat Outsider Threat

• Random target selection

• Former employee, client

• Ideological violence

• Current employee, client

• Domestic violence • Ideological sympathizer

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Water Cooler Politics & Conspiracies • Keep in mind: Extreme beliefs and behaviors can

approach or cross a red line—they may not simply reflect strong feelings, but rather be seen as potential pre-incident indicators of risk or possible signs or symptoms of mental illness.

• Extreme beliefs and conspiracy theories are often tinged with a sense of grievance—the thought that something is wrong and there is someone to blame. In the threat assessment field, grievance is recognized as an entry point to the pathway to violence.

• Attitudes and beliefs can result in hostile communications from angry outsiders, or further intensify disagreements between employees, as well as develop into ill will towards an organization and its leaders.

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• We must also be cognizant of and prepared to address the multiple stressors hitting the workforce in the short period of time that may weigh on employees’ coping mechanisms.

• The current unprecedented situation may compound and magnify emotional reactions with fear, frustration, anger, and distrust.

Anticipating Post-Pandemic Precipitants [1]

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Anticipating Post-Pandemic Precipitants [2]

• Stress, anxiety, and paranoia are recognized factors contributing to the risk of violence. Employees, and clients, as well as students, staff and faculty in educational settings may struggle with:

• Pressure to return to in-person attendance• Changing daily routines, including commuting• Strong feelings/anger related to mask and/or vaccine compliance• Distrust of the motives or messages of leaders in business and/or government• Pandemic fatigue/Emotional exhaustion• Grievances toward employer mandates and policy changes• Possible terminations related to non-compliance with vaccine mandates

• These factors can lead to resentment, hostility, or other negative sentiment directed towards employers and/or co-workers.

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• Isolation• Increased financial stressors• Close quarters with roommates, spouses/partners,

children (all who may be working/schooling from home

• Fear of illness/death from pandemic• Recent illness/losses due to illness• Uncertainty• Anger, frustration • Exacerbation of existing mental health/substance

abuse problems

Anticipating Post-Pandemic Precipitants [3]

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• People do not just snap. Active shooter incidents are examples of predatory violence. It is planned and purposeful in the eyes of the attacker.

• On average, each active shooter displayed 4 to 5 concerning behaviors over time that were observable to others around the shooter.

Pathway to Violence

Source | US DHS

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Violence Risks Follow the Employee • For those continuing to working in hybrid or

work-from-home arrangements, leaving the traditional workplace does not eliminate the risk of job-related violence—It just moves it.

• In the home office, workers do not have the benefit of the:

• Vigilance of supervisors and co-workers

• Physical security measures: Access controls, security personnel

• Violence prevention plans and resources

It may be the employee’s home, but it is the employer’s workplace.

Security and violence prevention are still important concerns.

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The Homicide-Suicide Nexus• The line between homicide and suicide in very fluid.

• Between one-third to one-half of all active shooter situations end with the suicide of the shooter.

• America’s climbing suicide rate has become a problem for businesses, too. The Bureau of Labor of Statistics has reported that more people are killing themselves in the workplace than ever before.

• Suicide rates have historically risen in prior pandemics and public health crises.

• Possible risk factors for suicide during pandemics include isolation, fear, marginalization, psychological disorders, economic fallout, and increased domestic abuse.

The risk of suicide, alone or in combination with violence to others is also shifting. Employers must remain vigilant to this dynamic.

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2022 Priorities

• Strengthen the relationship between HR, Security, Legal, and others involved in threat assessment/management and others involved in violence prevention efforts.

• Ensure EAP capabilities to meet anticipated demands for mental health help.• Keep a constant focus on employee wellness, at home and at work.• Increase awareness training in recognizing and reporting individuals and situations of

concern.• Remain in a constant readiness to respond effectively to violence of any kind. Seconds

cannot be lost to denial, disbelief, or indecision.

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Recommended Resources1. “Workplace Violence and Active Assailant-Prevention,

Intervention, and Response.” ASIS WVPI AA-2020. ASIS International. Alexandria, VA.

2. “Making Prevention a Reality: Identifying, Assessing and Managing the Threat of Targeted Attacks.” U.S. Department of Justice-Federal Bureau of Investigation. Washington, DC. July 2018.

3. “Active Shooter Incidents in the United States in 2020.” U.S. Department of Justice-Federal Bureau of Investigation. Washington, DC. July 2021.

4. “A Study of Pre-Attack Behaviors of Active Shooters in the United States between 2000 and 2013.” U.S. Department of Justice-Federal Bureau of Investigation. Washington, DC. June 2018.

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For More Information

Phone 973.601.7222Web www.behavioralscienceapps.comEmail info@behavioralscienceapps.com

www.facebook.com/bsacrisisintervention

www.linkedin.com/in/stevecrimando

www.youtube.com/channel/UCP06TtIfgTd4sT0glDFFpvw

BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE APPLICATIONS LLC

The Human Face of Emergency Management™

Your company recently terminated an employee in a contentious separation. In the weeks since his termination, the former employee has been posting intimidating messages directed to the company on social media, prompting an increase in security levels and a BOLO alert for nearby facilities.

Days later, the former employee walks into your building’s public lobby carrying multiple weapons and opens fire. The receptionist manages to press the duress button under his desk as he flees. This alerts the Security team, who immediately pulls up live camera views of the lobby.

Using the lobby cameras, the Security team identifies the shooter using the BOLO alert. It is critical to keep the assailant away from the people inside. Security locks down the elevators and secures all interior access doors on the first floor. You watch the assailant try to enter several first-floor doors, even shooting the door key pads. Then he turns back toward the lobby.

At the same time, the team activates the building’s emergency notification plan. This activation includes desktop takeover, loudspeaker messages, and multi-modal communications instructing employees to initiate their run-hide-fight active shooter response training.

The shooter re-enters the lobby as emergency services begin to arrive outside. A short standoff ensues. Using the integrated camera feed, the security team provides intelligence to police on the shooter’s movements, as well as contextual information on his termination and recent social media activity. The team is also able to grant targeted access to staging teams securing the area.

A police negotiator ends the standoff peacefully, and the assailant is taken into custody. Emergency services deploy to clear the building. Your team broadcasts an all-clear message updating all affected individuals. The immediate threat is over.

Please remain where you are until you are dismissed by emergency personnel

In the days following the shooting, your organization supports the police investigation into the incident. You provide video and audio of the attack, as well as detailed after-action reports that document the actions your team took to address the threat.

3/8 HQ Shooting

CEM Capabilities by Event Phase

• Provide ongoing awareness on potential threats to your organization and employees• Identify the attack as it occurs• Assess the situation inside and outside the building safely using video and other connected devices

• The attack and your on-site responders/crisis team members• Employees, travelers, contractors and partners who are in the building or nearby• Law enforcement/first responders as they arrive and request entry

• Activate automated emergency response plans• Send multi-modal alerts and responses to affected personnel • Maintain building integrity and coordinate with law enforcement until the event ends

• Give stakeholders the information they need to make decisions• Review plan execution and logs and identify any gaps• Leverage after-action report data and SitReps to perform tabletop exercises and address response plan gaps

ASSESS

LOCATE

ACT

ANALYZE

Responding to an Active AssailantCEM METHODOLOGY

© Everbridge, Inc. Confidential & Proprietary. 30

Q&A

Steve Crimando, Principal and Founder, Behavioral Science Applications LLCsteve@behavioralscienceapps.com

Michael Collar, Director, Industry SolutionsEverbridgemichael.collar@everbridge.com

https://www.everbridge.com/customers/success-center/resources/