the 2018 eu agricultural outlook conference...organic area increasing 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2012 2014 2016...

Agricultureand Rural Development

The 2018 EU Agricultural Outlook Conference

THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND FARMINGFOOD FOR THOUGHT

EU agricultural outlook for arable crops and biofuels

Brussels, 6 -7 December 2018

Agriculture andRural Development

Let's look at a seed in 2030… and some existential questions

What seed could itbe?

In what environment could it grow up?

How well will itperform?

In who's stomach willit end up?

Would it travel far?


What seed could it be?

Development of agricultural area

60 55

9 1213 1219 22

63 59

12 11

106

020406080

100120140160180200

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Mill

ion

ha

Development of agricultural area in the EU

fallow

permanent cropsetc.permanentgrasslandfodder

other arable

oilseeds

cereals (excl. rice)

ArtificialAgriculturalForestNatureInland waterNo data

178 (2018)176 (2030)

Competition from other uses… but outflow at lower pace


What seed could it be?

Development of cereals, oilseeds and protein crop area

+4% +2%

-12% -1%

-11% -4%

-11% -3%-26% -14%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mill

ion

ha

Development of cereal area in EU

durum wheatother cerealsbarleymaizecommon wheat +84% +44%

+10% +5%

+36%-1%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mill

ion

ha

Development of oilseed area in EU

Rapeseed

SunflowerseedSoya bean

• Mergers in seed, large processing and grain trading companies

• Farm size increasing

• Specialisation and scaleeconomies

Wheat area up

• Renewed market interest

• Policy support for protein richcrops

Soya bean and protein croparea up



Organic area increasing

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012

2014

2016

2030

% of EU agricultural area19 million ha

12 million ha

Area small but growing

• 2% of oilseed area (2016) from 1.5% (2014)Soya bean most dynamic

• Cereals also just above 2%

• Sugar beet virtually none

Demand both for food and feed

• Higher than supply and growing

• Bread, soya drinks, tofu, veggie burgers

• Organic production of milk, eggs and beef verydynamic

Arable crops need to catch up



Alternative scenarios in this outlookPrepared by JRC

Potential market impact of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US soya bean and pigmeat imports

Drivers for protein rich crop development in the EU

Food Waste - Quantifying the market and non-market impacts of EU household food waste reductions


How well will it perform?

Yield potentialRelative yield gap for rainfed wheat in Europe (%)

0

2

4

6

8

EU-15 EU-N13 Ukraine World Russia

Common wheat yield growth (ton/ha)

Source: Global Yield Gap Atlas

• Close to biophysical and agro-economic potential

• Catching-up in some regions

• Organic yields lag behind

• Regulatory, economic and agro-climatic constraints

• New technologies: digitalisation in precision farming etc

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Climate change Less pesticides


In who's stomach will it end up?

Food or feedDemand for EU cereals (million t)

0

30

60

90

120

150

2006

*

2018

*

2030

2006

*

2018

*

2030

2006

*

2018

*

2030

2006

*

2018

*

2030

Total wheat Maize Barley Othercereals

Seeds & waste Food FeedIndustrial Bioenergy

Food

• Bread consumption decreasingbut pastries increasing

• Beer consumption stabilising

• Issues around palm oil

• Soft drinks and sugarconfectionary decreasing

• Plant protein consumptionincreasing

Feed

• More compound feed

• But not very dynamic

0

5

10

15

20

2010

2020

2030

IsoglucoseHuman sugar consumptionSugar in exported processed foodSugar for industrial use

EU caloric sweetener consumption (million t)


In who's stomach will it end up?

…or fuel and industrial use

Biofuels

• More certainty due to REDII

• Fuel use down

• Advanced to increase

• Food and feed based feedstocksstabilise

Industrial uses

• cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, biobased plastics, polymers, detergents, paper

• Small but increasing

• Conducive policy environment

• From starches & vegetable oils

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Biofuels (advanced)Biodiesel (waste oils and fats)Ethanol (1st gen.)Biodiesel (1st gen.)RED accounted share

Industrial use for cereals in selected EU Member States, average 2016-2018 to 2030 (million t)

Biofuel shares in transport energy (%)

Source: AGMEMOD

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2016

-18

2030

2016

-18

2030

2016

-18

2030

2016

-18

2030

France Germany Romania Spain

Wheat Barley Maize


Will it travel far?

Question to the audienceGo to slido.com - event code #AgriOutlook

Who's expected to be the n°1 wheat exporter in the coming years?1. EU 2. Russia3. Ukraine

?


Will it travel far?

Export and imports?Global exports (million t) for wheat grouped by main exporting region

EU protein meal sources (million t)

* Average (2004-2006); average (2016-2018)

Other*

RUS

EU

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200

2006 2018 2030• Average (2004-2006); average (2016-2018)• Other exporters: mainly US, CAN, AUS and ARG

UKR & KAZ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006* 2018* 2030

Soya meal fromdomesticproduction

Other protein meal

Other protein mealimports

Soya meal importsand meal fromimported beans


Will it travel far?

Question to the audience

Who's expected to be the n°1 wheat exporter in the coming years?1. EU 2. Russia3. Ukraine


Let's look at a seed in 2030… and some existential questions

What seed could it be?Probability that it's wheat or soya

bean increases

In what environment could it grow up?More organic to be expected

How well will it perform?Pros and cons for yield increaseIn who's stomach will

it end up?Industrial uses to gain importance

Would it travel far?More exports (wheat, sugar) and

imports (soya)

the 2018 eu agricultural outlook conference...organic area increasing 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2012 2014 2016...

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