the 2016 elections: exit polls and trumpismo

The 2016 Elections: Exit Polls and Trumpismo

Presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research

Austin, TexasMay 14, 2016

Gary Langer, Chad Kiewiet de Jonge and Gregory HolykLanger Research Associates

Aug-

08No

v-08

Feb-

09M

ay-0

9Au

g-09

Nov-

09Fe

b-10

May

-10

Aug-

10No

v-10

Feb-

11M

ay-1

1Au

g-11

Nov-

11Fe

b-12

May

-12

Aug-

12No

v-12

Feb-

13M

ay-1

3Au

g-13

Nov-

13Fe

b-14

May

-14

Aug-

14No

v-14

Feb-

15M

ay-1

5Au

g-15

Nov-

15Fe

b-16

Unemployment RateAug. 2008 - present

Bureau of Labor Statistics

10.0

6.1

5.0

10.89.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.019

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

16

U6 RatePercent unemployed or marginally attached


0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%19

4819

5019

5219

5419

5619

5819

6019

6219

6419

6619

6819

7019

7219

7419

7619

7819

8019

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

1020

1220

1420

16

Long-term UnemploymentPercentage of those unemployed for 27 weeks or more


-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Median weekly earnings1979-2014


No college degree

Bachelor’s degree and higher

68% of U.S. population >25

-9.1%

+22.6%

4/24

/16

4/3/

163/

13/1

62/

21/1

61/

31/1

61/

10/1

612

/20/

1511

/29/

1511

/8/1

510

/18/

159/

27/1

59/

6/15

8/16

/15

7/26

/15

7/5/

156/

14/1

55/

24/1

55/

3/15

4/12

/15

3/22

/15

3/1/

152/

8/15

1/18

/15

12/2

8/14

12/7

/14

11/1

6/14

10/2

6/14

10/5

/14

9/14

/14

9/24

/14

8/3/

147/

13/1

46/

22/1

46/

1/14

5/11

/14

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

<$50K$50-100K $100K+

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index by Income

20142012201020082006200420022000199819961994199219901988198620

30

40

50

60

70

80

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

CCI yearly averageRe-election rate

Axis Title

Consumer Comfort and House Re-election RateBloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

Correlation: .74

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7Party ID excluding independentsParty Identification and Ideology:

Annual Average Correlation, 1981-2016ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

So, let’s have an election

Question 1: Who shows up?

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 20160%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

31%

24%

62%

0.16

0.25

Liberal Very liberal

Democratic Primaries: % LiberalsExit polls

1976 1980 1988 1992 1996 2000 2008 2012 20160%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

38%

32%

76%

0.22

0.33

Conservative Very conservative

Republican Primaries: % ConservativesExit polls

1976 1980 1988 1992 2000 2008 20160%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

47%

32%

51%

22%

Moderate (D) Moderate (R)

Dem and Rep Primaries: % ModeratesExit polls

Democratic Party Republican Party0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

42%

51%58%

49%

Men Women

Gender by Political Party2016 exit polls

Democratic Party Republican Party0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

61%

90%

39%

10%

25%

Whites Nonwhites NET Blacks Hispanics

Race by Political Party2016 exit polls

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 201640%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

49%

58%

Democratic Primaries: % WomenExit polls

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 20160%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

10%

25%

2%

9%

Blacks Hispanics

Democratic Primaries: % Blacks, HispanicsExit polls

1976 1984 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 20160%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

25%

16%17%

Age 18-29

Democratic Primaries: Age 18-29Exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

62%

50% 48%

71%78%

62%

37%

49% 50%

28%21%

38%

Clinton Sanders

Democratic Primary Vote by Groups2016 exit polls

18-29_x000d_(17%)

30-44_x000d_(23%)

45-64_x000d_(40%)

65+_x000d_(21%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

28%

50%

65%72%71%

49%

33%26%

Clinton Sanders

Democratic Primary Vote by Age2016 exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

30% 28% 27%

13%

Democratic Primary: Attributes2016 exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

87%

42%

26%

81%

12%

56%

73%

18%

Clinton Sanders

Dem. Primary Vote by Attribute2016 exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

54%

30%

12%

84%

14%

Democratic Primary: Issues2016 exit polls

Continue O

bama's

_x00

0...

More_x0

00d_li

beral...

Less_

x000

d_libera

l...

Econ. s

ys._x

000d

_favo

r...

Fair_x

000d

_to m

ost...

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

73%

32%

45%

57%

72%

27%

67%

49%42%

25%

Clinton Sanders

Dem. Primary Vote by Issues2016 exit polls

81%

15%

40% 39%45%

11%

40%

52%

66%

34%

54%

7%

Democratic primary voters Republican primary voters

Dem-Rep Issue Comparisons2016 exit polls

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

68%

27%

41%

53%

Republican Primaries: Issues2016 exit polls

35%

47%

36%43% 41% 38%

43%

26% 27%

42%

23%

14%

34%

19%18%

10% 7%14%

25%

10%

20%

Trump Cruz Kasich

Rep. Primary Vote: Groups2016 exit polls

68%

8%

50% 49%53%

18%

36%28% 28% 30%

5%

26%

8% 9% 7%

Trump Cruz Kasich

Rep. Primary Vote: Issues2016 exit polls

Divisive Energizing Definitely Probably No0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

58%

39%

23% 26%

48%

Rep. Primary Impacts2016 exit polls

Vote for Trump in November – among non-Trump supporters

Trumpismo

The Roots of Trumpismo

The Roots of Trumpismo

Economic discontent

Pushback against ”others”

Valuing authority

Populism

What factors best explain Trump’s support?

Economic Discontent?

Valuing Traditional Authority?

Populism?

Pushback Against “Others”

Modeling Trumpismo: Primaries

Economic discontent


Valuing authority

PopulismTrump

Support vs. GOP

Modeling Trumpismo: General Election

Economic disconten

t


Valuing authority

PopulismTrump

Support vs.

Clinton

Better/worse under

Obama

The 2016 Elections: Exit Polls and Trumpismo

Thank you!

the 2016 elections: exit polls and trumpismo

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