the 2012 jewish vote national, ohio, and florida post-election jewish surveys november 2012

The 2012 Jewish VoteThe 2012 Jewish VoteNational, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish SurveysNational, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys

November 2012November 2012

FigureFigureGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish VoteGBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote

MethodologyMethodology

• National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent

• Ohio statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent

• Florida statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent

• National survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 900,000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study

• Ohio and Florida surveys conducted by landline telephones and cell phones, calling a random sample of registered voters with Jewish names and people who self-identify as Jewish in consumer data that has been appended to the state voter files; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study

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Bottom Line Takeaway of 2012 Jewish VoteBottom Line Takeaway of 2012 Jewish Vote

In an election where Obama enjoyed a narrow victory with the overall American electorate, he had an overwhelming victory with the Jewish electorate.

The shift in Obama’s Jewish vote from 2008 reflects shifts in other constituencies such as such as college graduates, whites, Independents, voters under 30, and Catholics.

Obama is more trusted than Romney on all issues, ranging from Social Security and Medicare (65-26) and the economy (56-32) to dealing with Iran (58-26) and Israel (53-31).

Ultimately, the Jewish vote was driven by a mixture of strong support for President Obama (67 percent job approval), a growing sense that he is turning things around for the country (55 percent right direction), positive feelings toward the Democratic Party (54 favorable / 33 unfavorable), and intense opposition to Mitt Romney (29 favorable / 62 unfavorable) and the Republican Party (26 favorable / 64 unfavorable).

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Key FindingsKey Findings

Nationwide and in two key swing states, overwhelming support for Obama and Democratic candidates among American Jews.

• Obama receives 70 percent of Jewish votes nationally, 69 percent in Ohio, and 68 percent in Florida

• Senator Sherrod Brown receives 71 percent in Ohio ;Senator Bill Nelson receives 72 percent in Florida

Economy is top voting issue (53 percent), followed by health care (32 percent), Social Security and Medicare (23 percent), and the deficit and government spending (20 percent). Israel is top issue for 10 percent of Jewish voters and Iran is top issue for 2 percent.

Jews hold progressive views on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict.• Strong support for U.S. playing an active role to help resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict,

even if it means publicly stating disagreements with the Israelis and the Arabs (69 percent support)

• 76 percent support the U.S. putting forth a peace plan that proposes borders and security• 72 percent support comprehensive agreement along the lines of the Clinton parameters

Addressing Iranian threat elicits mixed views among Jews– 47 percent want to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work before setting red lines, 35 percent think diplomacy and sanctions have failed and it’s now time to set red lines.

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2012 Jewish Vote2012 Jewish VoteNational, Ohio, and FloridaNational, Ohio, and Florida

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2012 Presidential Vote2012 Presidential Vote

66


President and Congress Vote - NationwidePresident and Congress Vote - Nationwide

77


2008 and 2012 Election Results 2008 and 2012 Election Results Comparison Between Jewish and Other ConstituenciesComparison Between Jewish and Other Constituencies

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% Democrat / % Republican Obama Vote Shift2008 2012 2008 to 2012

Total 53 / 46 50 / 49 -3

Jewish 74 / 26 70 / 30 -4 Unmarried women 70 / 30 67 / 31 -3Hispanics 67 / 31 71 / 27 +4Voters under 30 years-old 66 / 32 60 / 37 -6

College Graduate 53 / 45 50 / 48 -3Independents 52 / 44 45 / 50 -7Whites 43 / 55 39 / 59 -4

No religion 75 / 23 70 / 26 -5Other religion 73 / 22 74 / 23 +1Catholics 54 / 45 50 / 48 -4Protestants 45 / 54 42 / 57 -3White Evangelicals 24 / 74 21 / 78 -3

Source: Exit poll data


Historical Perspective:Historical Perspective:Jewish Vote in Presidential ElectionsJewish Vote in Presidential Elections

• Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972, except 1980

• Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent

Year % of Jewish Vote

Democrat Republican Independent1972 65 351976 71 27 21980 45 39 141984 67 311988 64 351992 80 11 91996 78 16 32000 79 19 12004 74 252008 74 262012 70 30

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Source: Exit poll data


Impact of the Jewish VoteImpact of the Jewish Vote

1010

Source: 2012 exit polls

Jewish Population %

2012 Vote Results Among all Voters(Obama/Romney)

New York 6 62 / 36

Florida 5 50 / 49

Pennsylvania 4 52 / 47

New Jersey 3 58 / 41

Nevada 3 52 / 46

Ohio 1 50 / 48


Presidential and Senate VotePresidential and Senate VoteOhio / FloridaOhio / Florida

1111

Obama

Romney

Sherrod BrownJosh Mandel

Obama

Romney

Bill NelsonConnie Mack


Very Few Romney Voters Considered ObamaVery Few Romney Voters Considered Obama(ROMNEY VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Barack Obama for President? How seriously did you think about voting for Barack Obama -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously?

1212


Sizable Number of Obama Voters Considered RomneySizable Number of Obama Voters Considered Romney(OBAMA VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Mitt Romney for President? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for Mitt Romney -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously?

1313


Presidential Financial Contributions – 2008 and 2012Presidential Financial Contributions – 2008 and 2012

In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain?

In the 2012 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of Mitt Romney?

1414


Driving Factors Behind the Jewish VoteDriving Factors Behind the Jewish Vote

1515


Country DirectionCountry DirectionGrowing Sense that US is Headed in Right DirectionGrowing Sense that US is Headed in Right Direction

1616


Top TWO Issues in Deciding 2012 Presidential VoteTop TWO Issues in Deciding 2012 Presidential Vote

1717

National Ohio Florida

The economy 53 60 51

Health care 32 33 29

Social Security and Medicare 23 16 23

The deficit and government spending 20 14 13

Taxes 12 7 5

Abortion 10 15 15

Israel 10 9 14

Terrorism and national security 10 10 9

Education 9 14 13

The environment 5 6 4

Iran 2 2 4

Energy 4 2 3

Illegal immigration 4 2 2


Obama and Congress Job ApprovalObama and Congress Job ApprovalDo you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama/Congress is doing?

1818

Strongly disapproveStrongly approve

Total approve Total disapprove

Strongly disapproveStrongly approve

Total approve Total disapprove

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Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli ConflictObama Handling of Arab-Israeli ConflictNationalNational

Now, something different. Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict

1919


Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli ConflictObama Handling of Arab-Israeli ConflictNational, Ohio, FloridaNational, Ohio, Florida

Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict?

2020


Favorability Ratings - NationalFavorability Ratings - National

2121

Bill Clinton

BarackObama

BenjaminNetanyahu

TheDemocratic

Party

Joe Biden


Favorability – National, Ohio, and FloridaFavorability – National, Ohio, and Florida

National Ohio Florida

Fav / Unfav Fav / Unfav Fav / Unfav

Barack Obama 61 / 31 68 / 27 66 / 29

Mitt Romney 29 / 62 30 / 60 30 / 60

The Democratic Party 54 / 33 61 / 26 59 / 28The Republican Party 26 / 64 24 / 64 24 / 63

Sherrod Brown -- 62 / 25 --

Josh Mandel -- 22 / 68 --

Bill Nelson -- -- 53 / 23

Connie Mack -- -- 14 / 59

Debbie Wasserman Schultz -- -- 46 / 28

2222


Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our CountryObama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our CountryNationalNational

Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue?

2323

Obama total betterRomney much betterObama much betterRomney total better


Brown vs. Mandel on Issues Facing Our CountryBrown vs. Mandel on Issues Facing Our CountryOhioOhio

Do you think Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel would do a better job on this issue?

2424

Brown much better job Mandel much better jobBrown total better job Mandel total better job

23


Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue?

Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our CountryObama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our CountryFloridaFlorida

2525

Obama much better job Romney much better jobObama total better job Romney total better job

30

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Impact of Attacks on Obama and DemocratsImpact of Attacks on Obama and Democrats

2626


Awareness of Ads Criticizing Obama on IsraelAwareness of Ads Criticizing Obama on IsraelNational / OhioNational / Ohio

Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements or receive any mail pieces criticizing President Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel?

2727


Impact of Ads Criticizing Obama on IsraelImpact of Ads Criticizing Obama on IsraelNational / OhioNational / Ohio

Did any of these television advertisements or mail pieces criticizing Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail)

2828

Much more likely Obama Much more likely RomneyNo difference

Total Obama Total Romney


Awareness of Netanyahu AdvertisementsAwareness of Netanyahu AdvertisementsFloridaFlorida

Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking about Iran?

2929


Impact of Netanyahu AdvertisementsImpact of Netanyahu AdvertisementsFloridaFlorida

Did any of these television advertisements with Prime Minister Netanyahu make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail)

3030

Much more likely Obama Much more likely RomneySomewhat more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Romney


Netanyahu Involvement with Presidential CampaignNetanyahu Involvement with Presidential CampaignNationalNational

Based on your own observation of the 2012 Presidential election, do you think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took steps to try and help one of the candidates running for U.S. President?

3131


Impact of Netanyahu InvolvementImpact of Netanyahu Involvement

Did Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to help make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who felt that Netanyahu tried to help a candidate)

3232

Much more likely Obama Much more likely RomneySomewhat more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Romney


United States Role in Resolving United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli ConflictArab-Israeli Conflict

3333


United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli ConflictUnited States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict

3434


Support for Bill Clinton as Middle East EnvoySupport for Bill Clinton as Middle East EnvoyImagine for a minute that the winning U.S. Presidential candidate appoints former President Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy with the responsibility of bringing Israelis and Palestinians together to negotiate a final status agreement. Regardless of who you voted for in this year’s Presidential election, would you support or oppose the appointment of Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy?

3535

Strongly opposeStrongly supportTotal support Total oppose


Majority Support Comprehensive Peace AgreementMajority Support Comprehensive Peace AgreementAs you may know, on a few occasions during the past 10 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include:

3636

• A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza

• Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return

• Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem

• International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings

• Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves


Peace is Core US Interest and US Should Use Assertive Peace is Core US Interest and US Should Use Assertive Diplomacy Instead of Leaving it to Israelis and PalestiniansDiplomacy Instead of Leaving it to Israelis and Palestinians

Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right

3737


U.S. Negotiation Role U.S. Negotiation Role Fair and Impartial Broker vs. Siding with IsraelFair and Impartial Broker vs. Siding with Israel

Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right

3838


American Jews Support Public Debate Over Israel PolicyAmerican Jews Support Public Debate Over Israel Policy

1st Statement: It bothers me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy.

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2nd Statement: It does not bother me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy.

Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

2nd Statement Strongly1st Statement Strongly

1st Statement Total 2nd Statement Total


Iranian SanctionsIranian SanctionsNeed More Time vs. FailedNeed More Time vs. Failed

1st Statement: Before setting red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the United States needs to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work.

4040

2nd Statement: Diplomacy and sanctions have failed to stop Iran from continuing its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and it is now time for the United States to set red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

2nd Statement Strongly1st Statement Strongly

1st Statement Total 2nd Statement Total


U.S. Focus in the Middle EastU.S. Focus in the Middle EastIran and Israel-Palestinian Conflict Warrant Same AttentionIran and Israel-Palestinian Conflict Warrant Same Attention

Which of the following statements best describes how you feel about how the U.S. should focus its attention in the Middle East?

4141


United Nations Relationship with IsraelUnited Nations Relationship with IsraelThinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly?

4242


United Nations Relationship with Israel by AgeUnited Nations Relationship with Israel by AgeThinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly?

4343

Not at all fairlyVery fairlyTotal fair Total unfair

Very fairlyTotal fair

Not at all fairlyTotal unfair


United States Vote to Grant United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status

As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote –

4444


United States Vote to Grant United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status by Age Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status by Age

As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote –

4545


Support for Two–State SolutionSupport for Two–State Solution

4646


Support for a Two-State SolutionSupport for a Two-State Solution

(SPLIT A) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

4747


Support for a Two-State Solution with East Support for a Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian StateJerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State

(SPLIT B) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem.

4848


Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security and Jewish Democratic Characterand Jewish Democratic Character

A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character

4949


Two-State Solution Important for American SecurityTwo-State Solution Important for American SecurityA two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States.

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the 2012 jewish vote national, ohio, and florida post-election jewish surveys november 2012

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