the 2011 pobal hp deprivation index for small areas (sa) an inter-temporal analysis 2006 - 2011

Trutz Haase & Jonathan Pratschke

THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX FOR SMALL AREAS (SA)

An Inter-temporal Analysis 2006 - 2011

Dublin, August 2012

THE 2011 POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX (SA)

• This presentation contains a graphic display of the latest index scores for the Pobal HP Deprivation Index for Small Areas (SA)

• The presentation comprises three parts:

i. A comparison at NUTS 1-4 level of the key social indicators which underlie the HP Deprivation Index, spanning five census waves 1991 to 2011

ii. SA-level maps for the 2011 key indicators, and

iii. SA-level maps for the 2006 and 2011 absolute and relative deprivation scores

• For a description of the conceptual underpinnings and statistical features of the HP Deprivation Index, please consult separate presentations

OVERVIEW OF SUCCESSIVE DEPRIVATION INDICES, HAASE & PRATSCHKE 1996 - 2012

91 96 02 06 11

06 11

06 11

91 96 02 06 11 06 11

91 96 02 06 11 06 11

91 96 02 06 11 06 11

91 96 02 06 11 06 11

91 96 02 06

06

06

91 96 02 06 06

91 96 02 06 06

91 96 02 06 06

91 96 02 06 06

86 91 96

86 91 96

86 91 96

86 91 96

86 91 96

96

96

96

96

96

91

91

91

91

91

SA n=18,488

ED n = 3,409

NUTS 4 n = 34

NUTS 3 n = 8

NUTS 2 n = 2

NUTS 1 n = 1

Haase et al., 1996

Haase, 1999

Pratschke & Haase, 2004Haase & Pratschke, 2005 Haase & Pratschke, 2008

Haase & Pratschke, 2010Haase & Pratschke, 2012

91 96 02

91 96 02

91 96 02

91 96 02

91 96 02

Pratschke & Haase, 2001

01NI

01NI

01NI

01NI

01NI

01NI

Haase & Pratschke, 2011Level at which model is estimated

Level to which data is aggregated

06 11

Comparing Key Social Indicators

across five Census Waves

1991 - 2011

Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)

population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)

Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)

social class composition, education, housing quality

Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)

unemployment, lone parents, low skills base

THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE

POPULATION CHANGE1991 - 2011

• 30 per cent increase between 1991 and 2011

• Initial growth faster in S&E Region

• Since 2006, faster growth in BMW Region

Ireland.

Border,Midlands&WesternSouthern&Eastern

.Midlands

BorderWest

Mid WestSouth WestSouth East

Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo

County GalwayGalway City

Tipperary NRCounty Limerick

Limerick CityClareKerry

County CorkCork City

County WaterfordWaterford CityTipperary SR

WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare

Dun Laoghaire/RathdownDublin Fingal

South County DublinDublin City

80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

AGE DEPENDENCY RATE1991 - 2011

• 7 percentage point decline between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas gradually catching up

• Reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011, with Age Dependency Rate again increasing

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

LONE PARENT RATE1991 - 2011

• Doubling in rate between 1991 and 2006

• Highly concentrated in urban areas

• Further increase in rural areas between 2006 and 2011

• Reversal in trend after 2006 in all cities except Cork

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PRIMARY EDUCATION ONLY

1991 - 2011

• 50% reduction between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas gradually catching up

• Trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH THIRD LEVEL EDUCATION1991 - 2011

• 2½ - fold increase between 1991 and 2006

• Urban areas maintaining their relative advantage

• Only marginal increase in select areas between 2006 and 2011

• Other areas experiencing first marginal decline

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN HIGHER AND LOWER PROFESSIONAL CLASSES1991 - 2011

• 30% increase between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas slowly catching up during boom years

• Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011

• But urban-rural differential is again growing

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED CLASSES1991 - 2011

• Sharp 40% decline between 1991 and 2006

• Rural areas rapidly catching up

• Overall trend continues between 2006 and 2011, albeit at a slower rate

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



45% 35% 25% 15% 5%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE1991 - 2011

• Rapid decline between 1991 and 2002, halving rates

• Rural areas not fully participating in trend

• Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas

• 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in all counties except Dublin City

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE1991 - 2011

• Steady decline between 1991 and 2002, nearly halving rates

• Decline in urban areas exceeds that in rural areas

• Massive reversal in trend between 2006 and 2011 for all areas

• 2011 rates exceed 1991 rates in most counties

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 10% 20% 30%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING1991 - 2011

• Significant decline between 1991 and 2002, particularly in Southern & Eastern Region

• Reversal in trend after 2002, with slow increases pertaining since

• Imbalance between rural and urban provision gradually diminishing

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING1991 - 2011

• Strongly concentrated in the cities

• Steady increase between 1991 and 2006, in both urban and rural counties

• Steep increase between 2006 and 2011

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING1991 - 2011

• Rates in rural counties much higher than in urban counties

• Steady decline between 1991 and 2006

• Accelerated decline between 2006 and 2011, in both urban and rural locations

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM1991 - 2011

• Significant improvement over time

• Rural densities falling below urban for the first time in 2002

• Urban densities remain unchanged after 2006, but rural densities continue to fall

Ireland.


.Midlands

BorderWest


Mid EastDublin

.Westmeath

OffalyLongford

LaoisMonaghan

DonegalCavan

SligoLeitrimLouth

RoscommonMayo






WexfordKilkenny

CarlowWicklow

MeathKildare



0.75 0.65 0.55 0.45 0.35

1991

1996

2002

2006

2011

Mapping Key Social Indicators (SA)

2011

The following maps are broadly based on quintile distributions of each of the ten indicators which underlie the Pobal HP Deprivation Index

5 YEAR POPULATION CHANGE2006- 2011

Population Change2006 - 2011

20 or more7 to 200 to 7

-7 to 0-7 or more

• Strongest growth in urban peripheries

• Strongest decline in (remote) rural areas

AGE DEPENDENCY RATE2011

• Lower rates in urban peripheries

• Highest rates in (remote) rural areas

Age Dependency Rate2011

40 to 8035 to 4030 to 3525 to 300 to 25

LONE PARENT RATE2011

• Overwhelmingly urban phenomenon

• Reaching over 50% in disadvantaged city areas

Lone Parent Rate2011

33 to 10021 to 3314 to 219 to 140 to 9

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH PRIMARY EDUCATION ONLY

2011

• Lowest in urban periphery

• Highest in remote rural areas

• Cities containing both extremes

Primary Education Only2011

24 to 8118 to 2412 to 187 to 120 to 7

PROPORTION OF ADULT POPULATION WITH THIRD LEVEL EDUCATION2011

• Mirror image of low education

• Highest in urban periphery

• Lowest in remote rural areas


Third Level Education2011

41 to 9731 to 4125 to 3118 to 250 to 18

PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN HIGHER AND LOWER PROFESSIONAL CLASSES2011

Higher and Lower Professionals2011

46 to 8537 to 4630 to 3722 to 300 to 22

• Similar to high education

• Highest in urban periphery

• Lowest in remote rural areas


PROPORTION OF POPULATION IN UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED CLASSES2011

Semi- and Unskilled Manual Classes2011

26 to 6420 to 2616 to 2011 to 160 to 11

• Mirror image to professional classes

• Lowest in urban periphery

• Highest in remote rural areas


MALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE2011

Male Unemployment2011

30 to 8823 to 3018 to 2314 to 180 to 14

• The spatial distribution of male unemployment rates increasingly reflect the social class composition of local areas

• Munster shows relatively favourable labour market conditions

FEMALE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE2011

Female Unemployment2011

20 to 8015 to 2012 to 159 to 120 to 9

• Female unemployment rates in 2011 closely resemble male unemployment rates in their spatial distribution

LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING2011

• Primarily associated with disadvantaged urban areas

Local Authority Housing2011

8 to 1003 to 82 to 31 to 20 to 1

PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING2011

Private Rented Accommodation2011

30 to 10015 to 3010 to 155 to 100 to 5

• Exclusively urban with considerable presence in affluent areas

OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING2011

Own House2011

92 to 10085 to 9272 to 8553 to 720 to 53

• Predominantly rural

• Low urban rates are not necessarily related to social disadvantage

AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM2011

Persons per Room2011

0.55 to 10.820.5 to 0.550.48 to 0.50.44 to 0.480.26 to 0.44

• High rates in the average number of persons per room are a predominantly urban phenomenon

The Pobal HP Deprivation Index (SA)

Small Area Analysis, 2006 - 2011

Age Dependency Rate1

Population Change2

Primary Education only3

Third Level Education4

Professional Classes

5Persons per Room

6

Lone Parents

7Semi- and Unskilled Classes

8

Male Unemployment Rate9

Female Unemployment Rate 10

DemographicGrowth

Social ClassComposition

Labour MarketSituation

BASIC MODEL OF THE POBAL HP DEPRIVATION INDEX

most disadvantagedmost disadvantaged most affluentmost affluent

marginally below the average marginally above the average

disadvantaged affluent

very disadvantaged very affluent

extremely disadvantaged extremely affluent

MAPPING DEPRIVATION

ABSOLUTE INDEX SCORES2006

Absolute Index Score 2006Haase & Pratschke 2012

30 to 50 (22)20 to 30 (293)10 to 20 (2513)0 to 10 (6857)

-10 to 0 (5925)-20 to -10 (2294)-30 to -20 (564)-60 to -30 (20)

ABSOLUTE INDEX SCORES2011

Absolute Index Scores 2011Haase & Pratschke 2012

30 to 50 (2)20 to 30 (70)10 to 20 (838)0 to 10 (3397)

-10 to 0 (7181)-20 to -10 (5132)-30 to -20 (1719)-60 to -30 (149)

Shows the massive increase in disadvantage in wake of the recession after the 2006 Census, affecting literally every part of the country.

COMPARISON OF ABSOLUTE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991 AND 2006

RELATIVE INDEX SCORES2006

Relative Index Score 2006Haase & Pratschke 2012

30 to 50 (22)20 to 30 (293)10 to 20 (2513)0 to 10 (6857)

-10 to 0 (5925)-20 to -10 (2294)-30 to -20 (564)-60 to -30 (20)

RELATIVE INDEX SCORES2011

Relative Index Score 2011Haase & Pratschke 2012

30 to 50 (30)20 to 30 (474)10 to 20 (2412)0 to 10 (6232)

-10 to 0 (6483)-20 to -10 (2408)-30 to -20 (447)-60 to -30 (2)

The pattern between affluence and disadvantage, whereby affluence is greatest in the urban peripheries and gradually declining towards more rural locations, remains broadly intact.

There is some indication that the reach of the affluent commuter belts has somewhat diminished.

Within the Greater Dublin Area, there is some shift in the location of the most affluent areas. Whereas in 2006 the Western part of the Region scored high in affluence, in 2011 this is again primarily concentrated in Dun Laoghaire / Rathdown.

COMPARISON OF RELATIVE DEPRIVATION SCORES, 1991 AND 2006

CHANGE IN RELATIVE INDEX SCORES2006-2011

Change in Relative HP Index Scores, 2006-2011Haase and Pratschke 2012

improvement by more than 30 points (15)improvement by 20 to 30 points (45)improvement by 10 to 20 points (405)improvement by less than 10 points (8195)no data in 2006 (252)deterioration by less than 10 points (9210)deterioration by 10 to 20 points (350)deterioration by 20 to 30 points (14)deterioration by more than 30 points (2)

the 2011 pobal hp deprivation index for small areas (sa) an inter-temporal analysis 2006 - 2011

Documents

haase pratschke

pratschke haase

rural areas

urbanrural differential

relative deprivation

small areas sathe presentation

key indicators

cent increase