thailand’s energy situation bwr pwr epr dr. kamol takabut ceo advisor – italian thai power...
TRANSCRIPT
Thailand’s Thailand’s Energy SituationEnergy Situation
BWRBWR PWRPWR
EPREPR
Dr. Kamol TAKABUTDr. Kamol TAKABUTCEO Advisor – Italian Thai Power CompanyCEO Advisor – Italian Thai Power Company
President of Thai–French Technical Association - TFTA
February 15, 2012 Swissotel Le Concorde Hotel , Bangkok, Thailand February 15, 2012 Swissotel Le Concorde Hotel , Bangkok, Thailand
2
THAI-FRENCH TECHNICAL THAI-FRENCH TECHNICAL ASSOCIATION, TFTAASSOCIATION, TFTA
ACTIM Club, the Agency for the International Promotion of French Technology and Trade
2 nd President 1995-1996
Mr.Siva Charoenpong
3 rd President 1997-1998
Mr.Siri Klaimongkol
ACTIMTHAILAND
CLUB (ATC)TFTA
5 th President 2001-2002
Mr.Ruangrit Poolsawat
6 th President 2003-2004
Mr.Ratanapong Jongdamgerng
7 th President d’ATC 2005-2009
Mr.Suchai Roywirutnand
1 st Predident of TFTA
1 st President 1993-1994Dr. Chao Thongma
4 th President 1999-2000
Mr.Banchong Chayakul
2 nd President 2011-2013
Dr.Kamol TAKABUT
3
KBD of crude oil equivalent
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
Hydro/Imported Electricity2%
17%
44%
37%
Consumption of Primary Commercial EnergyConsumption of Primary Commercial Energy
Import: 26%
Import: 67%
Import: 20%
Import: 84%
Domestic: 74%
Domestic: 33%
Domestic: 80%
Domestic: 16%
Consumption OilNatural
GasCoal Electricity Total
Growth Rate *(%) 22. 14.7 12. 116 73.
* Preliminary dataKBD - thousand barrels per day Ministry of Energy September 2010
Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption in 2010Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption in 2010
Petroleum Products
ElectricityNatural
GasLignite/
CoalRenewable Energy
Total
Growth Rate *
156. 112. 392. 27. 0.8 138.
* Preliminary data
Total Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption: THB 1,796 billion*
Ministry of Energy September 2010
Total Value of Energy Export: THB 263.3 billion
Total Value of Energy Import: THB 895 billion
Forecast of Primary Commercial Forecast of Primary Commercial Energy DemandEnergy Demand
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011f
Demand 1,545 1,604 1,618 166,3
178
5
186,0
Oil 674 667 634 643 657 671
Natural Gas 579 615 648 682 782 822
Lignite/Coal 248 279 301 303 307 315
Hydro/Imported Elec.
44 43 36 35 39 52
Growth Rate (%)
Demand 1.6 3.8 0.9 28. 72. 42.
Oil -2.3 -1.0 -5.0 14. 22. 22.Natural Gas 2.3 6.2 5.4 52. 144. 51.Lignite/Coal 6.9 12.8 77. 06. 06. 26.Hydro/Imported Elec. 35.2 -2.5 -17.4 -11. 143. 327.
Unit: KBD of crude oil equivalent
p: Preliminary data f : Forecast data
KBD - thousand barrels per day September 2010
Forecast of Natural Gas Demand, by SectorForecast of Natural Gas Demand, by SectorUnit: MMSCFD
Remarks : Heating Value: 1 cubic foot = 1,000 BTU
Sector 2006 2007 2008 20092010
p2011f
Growth Rate (%)
2009 2010p 2011f
Power Gen.
2,257
2,346 2,423
2,43527,17
28,02
02. 116. 31.
GSP 527 572 583 599 67775
025. 13
10.9
Industry 291 347 361 387 51758
069. 337.
12.1
NGV 11 24 77 143 17520
2
84.2226.
15.4
Total3,08
63,28
83,444
3,56440,86
43,34
32. 142. 61.
p: Preliminary data f : Forecast data
September 2010
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
ม.ค . ก.พ . ม�.ค . เม.ย พ .ค . ม�.ย. ก.ค . ส.ค . ก.ย. ต .ค . พ .ย. ธ .ค .
2010
12.7%
2011
5.4%
9.3%
8.4%15.3%
11.5%
11.5%
3.0%
6.0%
3.6%
2.2%
1.5%
6.8%
2009
2008
1.5% -0.6%-2.4%
-0.5%
-0.9%
2.1%7.1%
2.7%
1.3%
-6.0%
23,900.2 MW14.00 h May 24, 2011
Decreasing 0.5 % from 201024,009.9 MW14.00 h May 10, 2010
Increasing 8.9 % from 2009
Source: EGAT Report Nov 2011
Megawatt, MW
EGAT Monthly Peak DemandEGAT Monthly Peak Demand
J F M A M J J A S O N D
10
Electric Power Electric Power ConsiderationConsideration
ENVIROMENTENVIROMENT
ElectricityElectricityPricePrice
System System ReliabilityReliability
Slide no. 11
PDP 2010 Thailand Fuel Mix for Power GenerationPDP 2010 Thailand Fuel Mix for Power Generation
12
Thailand Power Development PlanThailand Power Development Plan(PDP 2010) Year 2010 - 2030
• 13 Blocks of 800 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant• 5 Units of 1,000 MW Nuclear Power Plant• 9 Units of 800 MW of Cleaner Coal Fired Thermal Plant
Installed Capacity at End of 2009 29,212 MWTotal New Capacity (2010-2030) + 54,005 MWDecommissioning (Retirement - 17,671 MWTotal Capacity by end of 2030 65,547 MW
13
Alternatives Alternatives Energy OptionsEnergy Options
Wind PowerBiomass Power Plant
Mini-HydroelectricSolar Power PlantNuclear Power Plant
Geothermal Energy
Combined Cycle
17,474.0 MW
(55.6%)
Renewable5,618.6 MW
(17.9%)
TNB (HVDC)300 MW(1.0%)
Hydro (Domestic) 3,428.7 MW (10.9%)Hydro (Imported 1,884.6 MW (6.0%)Other 305.3 MW (1.0%)
Thermal7,929.7
MW(25.2%) Gas Turbine &
Diesel1244. MW
0 .4%
Total Capacity Total Capacity 31,446.7
MW
((as of 30as of 30 November November 22 011011))
Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating Capacity NovemberNovember 20 201111
EGAT December 2011
Total Electricity GenerationTotal Electricity Generation
160,113160,113 GWh GWh
Electricity Generation Electricity Generation 20 201100((Based on type of fuelBased on type of fuel))
Natural Natural GasGas 77 22..44
%%
DieselDiesel 0.10.1 %%
From LoasFrom Loas
And Malaysia And Malaysia 4.64.6%%
Hydro Hydro 3.3%3.3%
LigniteLignite 9.99.9%%
Oil 0.6%Oil 0.6%
Coal Import Coal Import 7.77.7%%
Renewables 1Renewables 1..4%4%
Source: Electrical Generating Authority of Thailand - EGAT 201115
Imported Imported CoalCoal
12,022 12,022 GWhGWh
8.2%8.2%
Natural GasNatural Gas
97,886 97,886 GWhGWh
66.766.7%%
DieselDiesel
26 GWh26 GWh
002. 002. %%
MalaysiMalaysiaa
111 111 GWhGWh
0.0.11%%
LigniteLignite
15,482 15,482 GWhGWh
10.5%10.5%
Heavy Heavy OilOil
1,644 1,644 GWhGWh
1.1%1.1%
Renewable Renewable EnergyEnergy
19,617 GWh19,617 GWh
13.4%13.4%
Net Energy Generation January - November 2011
146,146,788788
GWh
Other 7.0 GWhOther 7.0 GWh
0.04%0.04%
Renewable Renewable EnergyEnergy
Hydro (Domestic) 7,123 GWh
36.3%
Biomass 2 ,365 GWh
12.1%
Hydro (Imported )10,121 GWh
51.6%
Electricity Generation Electricity Generation Jan – Nov Jan – Nov 20201111((Based on type of fuelBased on type of fuel))
17
Electricity Distribution in 2010Electricity Distribution in 2010
By CustomersBy CustomersMEA – Metropolitan Electricity AuthorityPEA – Provincial Electricity Authority
By SectorsBy Sectors
18
Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention