thailand - bic.moe.go.th · the asian century. global gdp* % 1820. 70. 1913. 50. 73. 2005....
TRANSCRIPT
Thailand Thailand in the New Age of Global Capitalism in the New Age of Global Capitalism
Suvit MaesinceeSasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
•• The World AheadThe World Ahead
•• Strategy in Response to Strategy in Response to the New Global Landscapethe New Global Landscape
•• ThailandThailand’’s Competitive Positions Competitive Position
•• The New Economic AgendaThe New Economic Agenda
•• Transforming towards Transforming towards the First World Countrythe First World Country
The Asian Century
Global GDP* %
1820 70 1913 50 73 2005
Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries
Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries
25
50
75
The Rise of the RestThe Triad
The Rest of the World The Rise of Asia
China/IndiaThe Rest of Asia
World Economic Structure
Source: The Economist
The New USA
Source: ADB (2011)
The Plurilateralism
South AfricaIBSA
Brasil
ChinaIndia
Russia
IndonesiaJapanSouth Korea
BruneiCambodiaLaosMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandVietnam
ASEAN +3
KazakhstanKyrgyzstanTajikistanUzbekistan
ShanghaiCo-operationOrganization
G20
ArgentinaAustraliaBritainCanadaFranceEuropean UnionGermanyItalyMexicoTurkeySaudi ArabiaUSA
BASICs
ASEAN
ASEAN + 3
ASEAN + 6
585 Mil (9% World Population)
2,068 Mil (31% World Population)
3,284 mil (50% World Population)
Asean Economic Community
12,250 bil US$ (22% World GDP)
1,275 bil US$ (2 % World GDP)
9,901 bil US$ (18 % World GDP)
• Brunei• Singapore
TPP Vs. Asean+
• Malaysia• Vietnam
• Indonesia• South Korea• Japan
• PNG• Thailand• Philippines
• Australia
• Chile
• NZ• US• Peru
• Mexico• Canada
• RussiaAsia
America
GlobalLocal
Glo
bal
Loca
l
• Terrorism• Mass Production
of Refugee
• Extreme Poverty• Genocide• Civil War
• Financial Turmoil• Economic Crisis• Pandemics• Climate Change
Global Commons
The GlobalEconomic
Crisis
The GlobalFinancialTurmoil
The Commodity
PriceBubble
The RealEstateBubble
The DotComBurst
The AsianFinancial
Crisis
European European Sovereign Sovereign Debt CrisisDebt Crisis
Perpetual CrisesPerpetual Crises
For much of the next decade following the economic crisis, we expect to see
• Weak global growth
• Pressure from overcapacity
• Persistently high unemployment
• Volatility in the financial markets
• A rise of economic nationalism
• A more expanded role for governments
• A much larger burden of regulation
Asean countries are likely to face more severe consequences of the climate change than the global average due to limited adaptive capabilities
Thailand: Extreme Risk
An emergence of the Northern Rim Countries
•• CanadaCanada•• Northern USNorthern US•• GreenlandGreenland•• NorwayNorway•• SwedenSweden•• IcelandIceland•• FinlandFinland•• RussiaRussia
The eight nations will become increasingly prosperous, powerful and essential to the world reshaped by crowded megacity, coastal flooding and scarcer resources
Offshore Farming
Food & Agriculture
The 1st
WaveThe 2nd
WaveThe 3rd
Wave
Manufacturing Services
- Cash-rich Arab and Asian governments are buying up arable farmland all over developing world
- Chinese businesses are investing in South America and Africa, not only to gain access to commodities, but to get in position to profit from sales to the emerging middle class
- China is also buying up large tracks of land throughout Africa to produce biofuels and to produce food
- India's companies have formed a consortium to invest in corporate farming of oilseeds in Latin America, most notably Uruguay and Paraguay
Vertical Farming
Advantages
• Year-round crop production• No weather-related crop failure• No agricultural runoff• Allowance for ecosystem restoration• No use of pesticides, herbicides, or
fertilizers• Us of 70-95 % less water• Greatly reduced food miles• More control of food safety and security• New employment opportunities• Purification of grey water to drinking water• Animal feed from postharvest plant • materials
Sources: Dickson Despommier
Aging Society
Under-Population Issue
Thailand’sPotential
Supportive Ratio
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
02000 2020 2050
Source: Kua Wongboonsin
Strategy Strategy in Response to in Response to
the New Global Landscapethe New Global Landscape
Leading Change
• Global Imbalance• Global Common• Democratization of Power & Wealth
• The New USA• The Non-Polar World
GlobalGlobalDynamicsDynamics
New Reality
New New Mental ModelMental Model
• Philanthro-Capitalism• Global Financial Regime• Global Civic Society• Constitutive Governance• Free Culture• Sufficiency EconomyPhilosophy
New Mind-Set
NewNewOperating ModelOperating Model
• Global Coordinating Mechanism• Global Standards• Public Private Partnership• Open Collaborative Platform• Carbon Minimization• Climate Resilience
New Skill-Set
ยุทธศาสตร New Growth Strategy ของญี่ปุนJapan’s New Growth Strategy 2010 – 2020
ยุทธศาสตร New Growth Strategy ของญี่ปุนJapan’s New Growth Strategy 2010 – 2020
Korea Model
Korea 1.0Korea 1.0
Korea 2.0Korea 2.0
Korea 3.0 ?Korea 3.0 ?
Heavy IndustryHeavy Industry••Ship BuildingShip Building••SteelSteel••ChemicalChemical
•• EntertainmentEntertainment SoftwareSoftware
•• Telecommunications Telecommunications EquipmentEquipment
TimeTime
Wea
lth o
f the
Nat
ion
Korea 3.0
New Growth Engines
Green Technologies
High-Tech Convergence
Value Added Service
• Renewable energy technologies
• Water treatment technologies
• Low carbon energy technologies
• IT convergence citywide
• LEDs
• Broadcast & Communications media
• Intelligent robots• Biopharmaceuticals
& Medical Devices• Information Technology • Food Industry• Nano-Convergence
• Healthcare• Green Financing• Education• Mice & Tourism-
Related Industries• Cultural Content
& Software
China’s Five-Year Plans
Pro-Consumption Framework of 12th Five Year Plan
Strategic Emerging Industries •Biotechnology•New Energy•High-end Equipment Manufacturing •Energy Conservation& Environmental Protection •Clean Energy Vehicles •New Materials•Next-Generation IT
1, Establishing a united Malaysian nation made up of one Bangsa Malaysia
2. Creating a psychologically liberated, secured and developed Malaysian society
3. Fostering and developing a mature democratic society
4. Establishing a fully moral and ethical society
5. Establishing a matured liberal and tolerant society
6. Establishing a scientific and progressive society
7. Establishing a fully caring society
8. Ensuring an economically just society, in which there is a fair and equitable distribution of the wealth of the nation
9. Establishing a prosperous society with an economy that is fully competitive, dynamic, robust and resilient
Vision Malaysia 2020
ThailandThailand’’s s Competitive PositionCompetitive Position
Thailand’s Overall Competitive Position
First SphereFirst Sphere
Second SphereSecond Sphere
Third SphereThird Sphere
PoliticalDisorder
Stable Liberal Democracy
Stable Market Economy
ChaoticEconomy
••ThailandThailand
• Singapore
• South Korea• Vietnam
• India
Source: Tanaka Akihiko
• China
Overall Thai Industry’s Competitive Position
Lead
ers
Tech
nolo
gyan
d D
esig
n
Follo
wer
s
Low Cost
Competitive Advantage
Differentiation
Italy (2)
China (1)
Thailand (11)
Design/ Differentiationbased competition
Low cost-based competition
Hong Kong (3)
Apparel
Apparel
Competitive Nutcracker
Global Market Share
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
China
India
1.15 1.17 1.22 1.30 1.25 1.36
0.85 0.91 0.94 0.91 0.96 1.04
1.50 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.40 1.41
0.47 0.44 0.44 0.40 0.34 0.34
0.76 8.09 9.02 9.69 10.02 10.75
0.90 1.06 1.13 1.17 1.37 1.46
Foreign Investment Stock: Inward and Outward
Source: BOT
Outward Investment (Mil US$) Inward Investment (Mil US$)
IMD Overall Competitiveness 2007 – 2011
Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011
Ranking
59
Remark: Total 59 countries
The New Economic AgendaThe New Economic Agenda
Desired States of the EconomyDesired States of the Economy
Competitive Competitive Work ForcesWork Forces
ProductivityProductivityDriven EconomyDriven Economy
Strong Strong Domestic MarketDomestic Market
Enabling Enabling EcoEco--StructureStructure
World ClassWorld ClassInfrastructureInfrastructure
Entrepreneurial Entrepreneurial SocietySociety
Balanced Balanced GrowthGrowthGlobal Global
ConnectedConnected
Internationalization Internationalization of Thai Enterprisesof Thai Enterprises
World Leader World Leader in Global Nichesin Global Niches
Regional Regional Strategic PartnershipStrategic Partnership
Low Carbon Low Carbon SocietySociety
Green GrowthGreen GrowthIndustriesIndustries
Climate Resilient Climate Resilient EconomyEconomy
Nation’s Strategic Intent
Rapidly Changing
Global Economic
Environment
Dynamic Response
FailedResponse Le
vel o
f Inn
ovat
ion
Level of Internationalization
Nation’sStrategic
Intent
One of the
Leading Nationin the 21st century
A second-tier Nation
Thailand’s New Economic Agenda
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services & Tourism
Enabling Infrastructure
Thailand’s Economic Agenda
Capacity Building
Local
Regional
Global
1960s: Import Substitution 1970s: Export Promotion1980s: Foreign Direct Investment1990s: Trade Liberalization2001-2007: Dual Track Development2007- 2010: ??2011- Regionalization & Transformation
What’s Next ?
Thailand’s Trade Policy
Affluent: Affluent: Brunei, SingaporeBrunei, Singapore
Mainly Middle Class: Mainly Middle Class: Malaysia, ThailandMalaysia, Thailand
Transitioning to Middle Class: Transitioning to Middle Class: Indonesia, Philippines, VietnamIndonesia, Philippines, Vietnam
Low Income: Low Income: Cambodia, Laos, MyanmarCambodia, Laos, Myanmar
ASEAN Class Structure
ASEAN Middle Class – Landscape and Trend
• ASEAN Middle Class: 156 million people (26% of ASEAN population)
• Financial Times expects ASEAN to have middle class population at approximately 300 million people by 2015
• By 2030, the number of middle class segment in Indonesia could rise by more than 50 million, in Malaysia by 20 million and in Thailand by more than 25 million
Source: CIA World Fact book
Economic Structure of all ASEAN Nations
38.50 41.00 36.80 39.20
54.60
38.30
49.3044.00
72.80
25.30
31.70 30.00
20.00
40.20
31.70
46.80
41.6045.60
27.20
74.10
29.80 29.00
43.20
20.5013.70 14.90
9.10 10.400.00 0.70
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Service
Resource
Production
Service• Singapore
• Thailand• Malaysia• Indonesia• Philippines• Vietnam
• Brunei• Cambodia• Laos• Myanmar
Global CitiesGlobal CitiesSingapore, Kuala LumpurSingapore, Kuala Lumpur
National Cities: National Cities: Bangkok, Jakarta, ManilaBangkok, Jakarta, Manila
Second Cities: Second Cities: Surabaya, Penang, Cebu, Surabaya, Penang, Cebu, Chiang MaiChiang Mai
Place in Competition
Source: Trademap, SIGA analysis
Source: Trademap, SIGA analysis
Source: Trademap, SIGA analysis
Source: Trademap, SIGA analysis
Source: Trademap, SIGA analysis
Trade competition among Asean members
Source: TDRI (2008)
, SIGA Analysis
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Laos
Cambodia
Cambodia
Malaysia
Singapore
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Laos
0.27
0.46
0.39
0.31
0.23
0.43
0.34
0.21
0.33
0.49
0.29
0.14
0.41
0.43
0.26
0.16
0.09
0.29
0.23
0.34
0.31
0.15
0.08
0.34
0.30
0.43
0.40
0.28
0.18
0.07
0.35
0.26
0.42
0.40
0.45
0.41
Myanmar
AEC-Thailand Trade Structure
AEC
Dynamic Countries
Advanced Countries
Emerging Countries
• African Countries• Middle East
• The US/Canada• Western Europe• Japan/South Korea
• China/India• Russia• Argentina/ Brazil/ Chile• Mexico• South Africa
Using AEC as a stepping stone to enhance Thailand competitiveness in the global markets
Thailand
Challenges & Issues Facing Thailand’s Trade Policy
Trade with a Developmental
Rebalance
Trade with aSectoral
Rebalance
Trade with Global-Local Rebalance
Trade with Value
Creation
Trade with Free & Fair Practices Thailand’s
Trade Policy
• Resource/ energy use• Waste management practices• Water & air quality• Integrity of supply chain• Compliance with standards
• Labor practices• Maintenance of human rights• Impact on the communities• Taking responsibilities for products• Human value• Human creativity & value creation• Intellectual independence• Individual autonomy• Free culture
• Growth• World market share• Market penetration• International market control
Trade with a Developmental Rebalance
EconomicWealth
SocialWell-being
EnvironmentalWellness
HumanWisdom
Econ
omic
Envi
ronm
enta
lSo
cial
Hum
an
Trade with Sectoral Rebalance
17.6 Mil
5.4 Mil.
14.7 Mil.
Labor ForcesLabor Forces
Agr. Manu.Service
GDPGDP
Industry Transformation
Revitalizing Agricultural
Sectors
RestructuringManufacturing
Sectors
Reorienting Service Sectors
Hum
an-T
echn
olog
y C
onne
cted
• Food &Fuel Security
• Green Growth Industry
• High Value Services
A New Sustainable Industry Portfolio
SocialCentric
Industries
EconomicCentric
Industries
Human Centric
Industries
EnvironmentalCentric
Industries
• Creative Economy
• ServiceIndustries
• Knowledge Industries
• OTOP• BOP• Social Production• Peer Production• Distributed
Creativity
• AlternativeEnergy
• RecycleBusiness
• Manufacturing
ResourceSpendingContent
SocialContent
Knowledge/CreativeContent
ResourceSavingContent
Efficiency CreativitySustainability Co-Prosperity
Trade with Global-Local Rebalance
Cluster Cluster of Provinceof Province
ProvinceProvinceVillageVillage GlobalGlobalRegionalRegional
Social Cohesion
International Competitiveness
Efficiency Cost effectiveProductivityInnovation
SufficiencyCommunity BuildingCultural IdentityFamily Value
IN-OUT• FOB → CIF• Merger & Acquisition • Franchising• Licensing
OUT-OUT• Off-shoring Businesses• Film/Animation• Talent• Construction Industry• Kitchen of the World
IN-IN• Regional Hub• MICE • Clusters of Production
OUT-IN• Inward FDI• Global Sourcing• Tourism• Education• BPO
Trade with Global-Local Rebalance
Baht
Value
Cost
Price
Less for More
Morefor Less
Morefor More
Trade with Value Creation
• Reduces NTB for freer & fairer trade• International Cooperation among regions
Trade Competition &
ConsumerProtection
Policies
• Awareness in consumer rights protection• Consumer protection network• Nationalism
• International market access capability• Practical international standard
cooperation
• Deregulation
• Law improvement
• Increase capacity building
• Trade Culture Development
(Ethic & Morality)
• Transparent Government Procurements
Harnessing Unfair Trade PracticesTrade Liberalization
Facilitate Competitiveness
Strengthening Consumer Protection
Trade with Free & Fair Practices
Transforming Transforming towards towards
The First World CountryThe First World Country
Middle Income Trap
Middle Income TrapAsean Middle Income Trap
Smile Curve
FactorFactorDrivenDriven
EfficiencyEfficiencyDrivenDriven
InnovationInnovationDrivenDriven
Economic Transformation
More for Less Less for More
• Business Sophistication• Higher Education• Science & Technology
Economic Performance Government Efficiency Business Efficiency Infrastructure
IMD Competitiveness Landscape 2011
Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011
Advanced Education
Crossing the Chasm
Market-led Economy
Knowledge based Society
Entrepreneurial Spirit
Regional Integrated
Remove the systemic impediment that currently render Thailand enterprises uncompetitive and make Thailand an unattractive place for place for multi-national corporations to do business
Move forward to overcome the shortfall in both managerial and technical knowledge by drawing heavily on the outside world. There is no way back. Thailand must move forward to be knowledge-based.
For Thailand to be adaptable in its AEC strategy, and to re- energize the growth engine in the economy, entrepreneurialism will be crucial.
Thailand’s greatest opportunities, and greatest competitors, lie within 2000 km. of Bangkok. Thailand needs to become a tightly integrated insider in this region
Globally Connected
Thailand has long history of self reliance, but will fail to realize its potential if it continues to pursue this approach. The country’s real opportunities going forward are to become the best globally connected country in this region and to put an end to xenophobia
Building a Strong Economic Platform…
…as well as a Strong Social Platform
Clean & Clear SocietyClean & Clear Society
Free & Fair SocietyFree & Fair Society
Care & Share SocietyCare & Share Society
• Rule of Law• Governance
• Civic Society• Open Society• Social Justice
• Social Protection• Plural Society• Social Collaboration
• Social Exclusion
• Socio Economic Disparity
• Social Disempowerment
• Social Fragmentation
• Social Inclusion
• Socio Economic Security
• Social Empowerment
• Social Cohesion
Transforming towards the First World EconomyTransforming towards the First World Economy
CompetitionCompetition
ScienceScience
DemocracyDemocracy
MedicineMedicine
ConsumerismConsumerism
Work EthicsWork Ethics
Civilization : The West & the RestCivilization : The West & the Rest