texas housing insight - wtawwtaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/realestatecenteraug2016.pdf ·...

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHTLUIS B. TORRES

RESEARCH ECONOMISTJAMES P. GAINESCHIEF ECONOMIST WAYNE DAY

RESEARCH ASSOCIATE

TR T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

O C T O B E R 2 0162 1 2 0

ContentsAboutthisReport................................................................................................................................3

August2016Summary........................................................................................................................4

Supply..................................................................................................................................................6

ResidentialConstructionCoincidentandLeadingIndicator............................................................6

Single-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits...................................................................................6

MajorMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits............................................................7

BorderMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits...........................................................7

HousingStarts..................................................................................................................................8

TotalNewPrivateSingle-FamilyConstructionValue.......................................................................8

MonthsofInventory........................................................................................................................9

MajorMetrosMonthsofInventory.................................................................................................9

BorderMetrosMonthsofInventory..............................................................................................10

Demand..............................................................................................................................................10

HousingSales.................................................................................................................................10

MajorMetrosHousingSales..........................................................................................................11

BorderMetrosHousingSales.........................................................................................................11

30-YearMortgageRateand10-YearBondYield............................................................................12

TexasHomesDaysonMarket........................................................................................................12

MajorMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket..............................................................................13

BorderMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket............................................................................13

MajorMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket...................................................................................14

BorderMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket.................................................................................14

Prices..................................................................................................................................................14

HousingPriceIndex........................................................................................................................15

MajorMetrosHousingPriceIndex.................................................................................................15

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice...........................................................16

TexasExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice........................................................................16

MajorMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice.........................................................................17

BorderMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice........................................................................17

MajorMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice..............................................................................18

2

BorderMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice.............................................................................18

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice............................................................19

TexasExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice........................................................................19

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice..........................................................................20

BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice.........................................................................20

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice...............................................................................21

BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice..............................................................................21

TexasHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot..................................................................................22

MajorMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot........................................................22

BorderMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot.......................................................23

MajorMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot.............................................................23

BorderMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot...........................................................24

TexasHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot...................................................................................24

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot.........................................................25

BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot.......................................................25

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot..............................................................26

BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot............................................................26

TexasHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio.......................................................................................27

MajorMetrosExistingHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio............................................................27

MajorMetrosNewHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio.................................................................28

HousingOpportunityIndex(AffordabilityIndex)...........................................................................28

ExuberantHousingPriceBehavior.................................................................................................29

3

AboutthisReport

RealEstateCentereconomistscontinuouslymonitormanyfacetsoftheglobal,nationalandTexaseconomies.TexasHousingInsightisasummaryofimportanteconomicindicatorsthathelpdiscerntrendsintheTexashousingmarkets.

ThismonthlypublicationprovidesdataandinsightsontheTexashousingmarkets.Wehopeyoufindthemuseful.Yourfeedbackisalwaysappreciated.Sendcommentsandsuggestionstoinfo@recenter.tamu.edu.

Dr.JamesGaines,Dr.LuisTorresandWayneDay

Data current as of October 7, 2016

© 2016, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

4

August2016Summary

TheTexaseconomymarchedforwardinAugust.Totalemploymentexpanded1.6percentyear-over-yearwithamonthlygainof10,400jobs.Monthlyjoblossescamefromthetrade,transportationandutilities,manufacturing,andtheoilandgasextractionsectors.Houstoncontinuestobeadragonoverallemploymentwithgoods-producingjobsdown4.9percentfromayearago.HousingdemandincreasedacrossthestateduringAugustthoughmixedamongthemetros.Statebuildingpermitsincreasedovertheyearandoverthemonthpriorthoughataslowerratethanyearsprior.

Supply

TheTexasResidentialConstructionLeadingIndex(RCLI),whichsignalsfuturedirectionalchangesintheresidentialconstructionbusinesscycleofsingleandmultifamilyhousing,declined.TheRCLIwasnegativelyaffectedbymonthlydeclinesinhousingstartsandweightedbuildingpermits.TheTexasResidentialBusinessCycle(Coincident)Index,themeasureofcurrentconstructionactivity,alsofellasinflation-adjustedresidentialconstructionvaluesdeclined.TheRCLIindicatesslowgrowthinfutureresidentialconstructionwhilethecoincidentindexregisteredaslowdownincurrentactivity.Housingstartsdecreased21.6percentseasonallyadjustedyear-over-year.

Single-familyhousingconstructionpermitsstatewideincreasedoverthepriormonthandayearago.Inrecentmonths,Texas’buildingpermitsshowedsignsofslowingcomparedwiththetrendfrom2011through2014.AllmajorTexasmetrospostedpermittinggainsyear-over-year.Houston(3,234)andDallas-FortWorth(2,939)stillledthenationinthenumberofsingle-familypermitsissued,followedbyAtlanta(2,167),Phoenix(1,637),andCharlotte(1,444).

MonthsofinventoryforexistinghomesacrossTexasremainedlowat3.7months.ThemonthsofinventoryhasremainedfairlystablesinceMay2015.Thenationreported4.3monthsofinventory.(Around6.5monthsofinventoryisconsideredbalanced).

Demand

TotalTexashousingsalesincreased7.4percentyear-over-yearseasonallyadjusted(7.2percentonanonseasonallyadjustedbasis)comparedwithapositive8.8percentinthenation(8.4percentonanonseasonallyadjustedbasis).Austin(7.4percent),Dallas-FortWorth(5.2percent),Houston(8.3percent),andSanAntonio(12.1percent)allincreasedyear-over-year.Themetrosgainedonamonthlybasisaswell.Onayear-to-datebasis,Houstonisaheadof20151.1percentwhileDallas-FortWorthisupby4.8percent(nonseasonallyadjusted).

Mortgageinterestratesremainedbelow4percent.TheFederalHomeLoanMortgageCorporationreportedasteady3.44percentaveragerateona30-yearfixed-ratemortgage,whiletheten-yearU.S.Treasurybondyieldtickedupto1.56percentfrom1.50themonthprior.

5

Thenumberofdaysanexistinghomewasonthemarketremainedlowat53daysrelativetopriorperiods,reflectingthetightsupply.Duringthesamemonth,newhomesregisteredlongersalesperiodsthanexistinghomesat93days.Theaveragestatewidedifferencetosellanewhomeversusanexistinghomewas40days.Innumberofdays,newhomesinHouston(97)andAustin(88)tooklongertosellcomparedtoDallas-Plano-Irving(75),FortWorth-Arlington(81),andSanAntonio(82).

Prices

AverageandmediansalespriceshaverisendramaticallyinTexassince2011.Althoughpriceswerestillgenerallyincreasing,thereweresignsofdeceleration.AustinwasthehousepriceappreciationleaderthroughAugustwithpricesremainingwellabovetheothermajormetros.NonenergyemploymentgrowthandastrongservicessectorcausedDallas-FortWorthtoalsoregisterstrongpriceappreciation.Duetorecentdeclinesintheenergysectorandtheresultingeconomicslowdown,Houstoncontinuedtosoftenintherateofpricegrowthaheadoftheothermetros.SanAntoniopriceincreaseshavealsosoftenedsomewhat.MedianpricesfornewhomesinDallasandHoustonareonparwithandhaveexceededAustinnewhomeprices.

Thesofteninginpricegrowthisbeingstronglyinfluencedbyreducedpricesfornewhomesratherthanexistinghomes,especiallyatthehigherpriceend.ThedifferencefromtheinitiallistingpricetotheactualsalespricefornewhomeshassteadilywidenedinTexassinceearly2014.Incontrastforexistinghomes,thelisting-to-salepricedifferencehasflattened,probablyreflectingachangeinmarketconditionsforthesellersofnewhomes.

Since2011,newhomepriceshaveexceededexistinghomepricesby48percentand37percentbasedonmedianandaveragesalesprices,respectively.Thispricedifferentialresultsprimarilybecauseofincreasesinhomesizefornewerhomesandthesignificantincreasesinconstructionandlandcostsfornewhomes.TheaveragepricepersquarefootforanewhomeinTexasisapproximately19percentmorethanforanexistinghome.

Withrapidpriceappreciation,TexasaffordabilitycontinuedtofallrelativetotheU.S.,especiallyinthemajorMSAs.TheHousingOpportunityIndexforAustinandDallas—measuringthepercentofhomesaffordabletothoseearningthemedianfamilyincomeforthearea—arefoundtobebelowthenationalvalue,indicatingtheyarerelativelylessaffordablethantherestofthecountry.Incontrast,FortWorthisrelativelymoreaffordablethanthenation,whileSanAntonioseemstoregisterrelativelythesameaffordabilityastheUnitedStates.LowerpricesinHoustonalsoresultedinanincreaseofaffordability.

ThemapprovidesdetailedinformationregardingTexas25MSAsexperiencingepisodesof“explosivebehavior”inhouseprices,meaningamisalignmentinhousepricesfromtheirfundamental-basedintrinsicvalues.TheCollegeStation-BryanMSAhadaperiodofexplosivebehaviorin2Q2016,whiletheDFW(inparticularDallas),AustinandVictoriaMSAspostedsomeunusualpricemovements.Theseregionsshouldcontinuetobetrackedinthedetectionofpossiblemisalignmentswitheconomicfundamentalsofdemandandsupply.

6

Supply

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversityandFederalReserveBankofDallas

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

TexasCoincidentIndexUnitedStatesCoincidentIndexTexasLeadingIndex

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

UnitedStates Texas

Single-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)

ResidentialConstructionCoincidentandLeadingIndicator(IndexJan2007=100)

7



20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

Austin-RoundRockDallas-FortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

Brownsville-Harlingen ElPaso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

MajorMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)

BorderMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)

8

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandBankofTokyo-MitsubishiUFJ

Note:Inflationadjusted.Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:DodgeAnalytics

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

UnitedStates Texas

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

TexasAustin-RoundRockDallas-FortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels

HousingStarts(IndexJan2007=100)

TotalNewPrivateSingle-FamilyConstructionValue(IndexJan2007=100)

9

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.MonthsofinventoryfortheUnitedStatesisestimatedusingweightsforallexistinghomesandnewsingle-familyhomes;newnon-single-familyhomesarenotincluded.Texasincludesallexistingandnewhomes.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NationalAssociationofRealtorsandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

UnitedStates Texas

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16


MonthsofInventory(Months)

MajorMetrosMonthsofInventory(Months)

10

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Demand

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.SalesfortheUnitedStatesincludeallexistinghomesandnewsingle-familyhomes;newnon-single-familyhomesarenotincluded.Texasincludesallexistingandnewhomes.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NationalAssociationofRealtors,andRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

456789

1011121314151617

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Brownsville-Harlingen ElPasoLaredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

UnitedStates Texas

HousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)

BorderMetrosMonthsofInventory(Months)

11

Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

556065707580859095100105110115120125

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16


6065707580859095100105110115120125

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

Brownsville-HarlingenElPasoLaredoMcAllen-Edinburg-Mission

MajorMetrosHousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)

BorderMetrosHousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)

12

Note:Seasonallyadjusted.Sources:FederalHomeLoanMortgageCorporationandFederalReserveBoard

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jan-07

Jun-07

Nov-07

Apr-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Jul-0

9

Dec-09

May-10

Oct-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Jan-12

Jun-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-1

4

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

Mortgage Bond

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

ExistingHomeDaysonMarketNewHomeDaysonMarket

30-YearMortgageRateand10-YearBondYield(Percent)

TexasHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

13



25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


MajorMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

BorderMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

14



70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Austin-RoundRock Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand

SanAntonio-NewBraunfels

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


MajorMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

BorderMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

15

Prices

Note:Seasonallyadjusted.Source:FederalHousingFinanceAgency

Note:Seasonallyadjusted.Source:FederalHousingFinanceAgency

7580859095100105110115120125130135140

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16

UnitedStates Texas

859095100105110115120125130135140145150155160165

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16

Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfelsElPaso

HousingPriceIndex(IndexQ12007=100)

MajorMetrosHousingPriceIndex(IndexQ12007=100)

16

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis


200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

ExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice

NewHomeAverageSalesPrice

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

ExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice

NewHomeAverageSalesPrice

TexasExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

17



150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


MajorMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

BorderMetrosExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

18



200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

360,000

380,000

400,000

420,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington

Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand


130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


MajorMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

BorderMetrosNewHomeAverageSalesPrice($)

19

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis


130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

ExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice

NewHomeMedianSalesPrice

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

ExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice

NewHomeMedianSalesPrice

TexasExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

20

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.

Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity


120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Brownsville-Harlingen ElPaso

Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

21



170,000

210,000

250,000

290,000

330,000

370,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6



MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

22



7580859095100105110115120125130135

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

ExistingHomeAveragePricePSFNewHomeAveragePricePSF

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



MajorMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

TexasHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

23



55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Brownsville-Harlingen

ElPaso

Laredo

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


BorderMetrosExistingHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

MajorMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

24



75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Brownsville-Harlingen

ElPaso

Laredo

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

ExistingHomeMedianPricePSF

NewHomeMedianPricePSF

BorderMetrosNewHomeAveragePricePerSquareFoot($)

TexasHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

25



60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6



MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

BorderMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

26



80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6


MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

BorderMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

27



0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

ExistingHomeSale-to-ListPriceRatio

NewHomeSale-to-ListPriceRatio

0.90

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



MajorMetrosExistingHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio($)

TexasHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio($)

28


Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSources:NationalAssociationofHomeBuildersandWellsFargo

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-1

1Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-1

2Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-1

3Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-1

4Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-1

5Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-1

6

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



30

40

50

60

70

80

90

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 16

UnitedStatesAustin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-SugarLand-BaytownSanAntonio-NewBraunfels

HousingOpportunityIndex(AffordabilityIndex)(Percentageofhomessold,affordabletomedian-incomefamily)

MajorMetrosNewHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio($)

29

Note:Red,above95percentcriticalvalue.Amber,80-95percentcriticalvalue.Green,below80percentcriticalvalue.Piechartsindicatethesharespentwithineachrangeoverthepastfivequarters(from2015Q2till2016Q2).Formoreinformation,see:LuisB.Torres,EnriqueMartínez-García,andValerieGrossman(2016):"CurbYourEnthusiasm:KeepinganEyeonHomePrices."JournaloftheRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversityTierraGrande,Vol.23,July2016.Sources:FreddieMac,BureauofLaborStatistics,RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity,andFederalReserveBankofDallas

ExuberantHousingPriceBehavior(Index;2Q2015to2Q2016)

i

ADVISORY COMMITTEE

MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU

College Station, TX 77843-2115

http://recenter.tamu.edu 979-845-2031

DIRECTOR

GARY W. MALER

MARIO A. ARRIAGA Conroe

JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS Austin

TED NELSON Houston

DOUG ROBERTS Austin

RUSSELL CAIN, CHAIRMAN Port Lavaca

DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN Fort Worth

KIMBERLY SHAMBLEY DallasRONALD C. WAKEFIELD San AntonioC. CLARK WELDER San AntonioBILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO Temple

http://recenter.tamu.edu

texas housing insight - wtawwtaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/realestatecenteraug2016.pdf ·...

Documents