testing the transferability of activity-based model parameters
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Testing the Transferability of Activity-Based Model Parameters. TRB Planning Applications Conference May 10, 2011 Andrew Rohne, OKI Regional Council Vince Bernardin Jr., Bernardin, Lochmuller & Associates. The Question…. Can we eliminate the need for expensive travel surveys - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Testing the Transferability of Activity-Based Model Parameters
TRB Planning Applications ConferenceMay 10, 2011
Andrew Rohne, OKI Regional CouncilVince Bernardin Jr., Bernardin, Lochmuller & Associates
The Question…
Can we eliminate the need for expensive travel surveys
in similar metropolitan areas?
The Test…
Take the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission AB/TB Model…
Use it to create a synthesized HH set for Cincinnati…
Test Auto Ownership and Activity Models…
Cincinnati ≈ Columbus
• Similar Population• Similar Modal Alternatives• 100 miles away
Cincinnati ≠ Columbus
• Cincinnati is Multi-State• Columbus is the State Capitol• OSU vs. UC+Xavier+Miami+NKU• Buckeyes vs. cats
Original Methodology
Run Auto Ownership and Activity Generation
Models
MORPC’s Coefficients and Constants
MORPC’s Coefficients, calibrate Constants
MORPC’s models, calibrate Coefficients and Constants
Full Re-Estimation
OKI data => MORPC Population Synthesizer
Synthesize OKI Pop. & HHs
Revised Methodology
Run Auto Ownership and Activity Generation
Models
MORPC’s Coefficients and Constants
MORPC’s Coefficients, calibrate Constants
MORPC’s models, calibrate Coefficients and Constants
Full Re-Estimation
OKI data => MORPC Population Synthesizer
NOTES•Draft HHTS Data•Removed certain variables from model specs
CalibrateOKI Pop. & HHs
Synthesize OKI Pop. & HHs
Number of HHs by Autos Owned
4+ Autos
3 Autos
2 Autos
1 Auto
0 Autos
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
ACS As-IsCalibrate Constants
DRAFT HHTS Data
HHs by Autos Owned, Hamilton Co.
4+ Autos
3 Autos
2 Autos
1 Auto
0 Autos
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
ACS As-IsCalibrate Constants
DRAFT HHTS Data
HHs by Autos Owned, Butler Co.
4+ Autos
3 Autos
2 Autos
1 Auto
0 Autos
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
ACS As-IsCalibrate Constants
DRAFT HHTS Data
HHs by Autos OwnedSuburban Counties
4+ Autos
3 Autos
2 Autos
1 Auto
0 Autos
0
20,00040,000
60,00080,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
ACS As-IsCalibrate Constants
DRAFT HHTS Data
HHs by Autos Owned, Dearborn Co.
4+ Autos
3 Autos
2 Autos
1 Auto
0 Autos
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
ACS As-IsCalibrate Constants
DRAFT HHTS Data
Conclusions and Lessons Learned1. We still need travel surveys2. Trip-Based Model Calibration Process Still
Applies (in Concept)3. Regional Calibration ≠ Local Calibration4. Don’t submit an abstract until you have the
data!!!
Questions?Andrew Rohne
OKI Regional [email protected]
@okiandrew(513) 621-6300
Vince BernardinBernardin, Lochmuller
(812) 479-6200
AcknowledgementsThanks to Rebekah Anderson (Ohio DOT) and Zhuojun Jiang (MORPC) for answering lots and lots and lots of questions from me about data, and for providing me with test data, documentation, and everything else I needed to run MORPC’s model.