terminator tintin och teleportering - vetenskapsfestivalen 2013
DESCRIPTION
Min presentation vid Vetenskapsfestivalen i Göteborg 2013.TRANSCRIPT
Per Olof Arnäs
Per Olof Arnäs
Om 30 år...hur kommer världen att se ut?
bo?arbeta?transportera?konsumera?hålla oss friska?utbildas?utvecklas?
...hur kommer vi
att
/ponder by hobvias sudoneighm on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
EU:s vitbok 2011
Per Olof Arnäs
EU:s vitbok 2011
”European transport is at a crossroads. Old challenges remain but new have come.”
40 years ahead, it is clear that transport cannot developalong the same path.
”The transport system is not sustainable. Looking 40 years ahead, it is clear that transport cannot develop along the same path.”
Per Olof Arnäs
Globala trender
Urbanisering
Hållbarhetsfokus
Befolkningsökning
Några
Klimatförändring
Energibrist Effektivitetsfokus
Blue Marble (Planet Earth) by woodleywonderworks on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Transport-branschen
3 saker:
Carbon-free transport by Stéfan on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
…fysisk
3d boxes by crystaljingsr on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
…publik
Traffic Jam by Giorgio Minguzzi on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
…analog
542 miles by Jason on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Per Olof Arnäs Stage Coach Wheel by arbyreed on Flickr
Transporter har utvecklats
mer eller mindre linjärt
de senaste 5500 åren...
Per Olof Arnäs
Vi befinner oss mitt i en gigantisk exponentiell utvecklingskurva
i början av
Per Olof Arnäs
Ett nytt globalt ekosysystem där nya typer av, kunskapsbaserade, industrier
konkurrerar med traditionella
Per Olof Arnäs http://bryce.vc/post/18404303850/the-problem-with-innovation
Startups don’t compete with airlines...
by purchasing a bunch of planeshiring a bunch of pilots
and locking up a bunch of terminals at airports.
Miniature Airport by disparkys on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Startups compete with airlines by
inventing videoconferencing.
http://bryce.vc/post/18404303850/the-problem-with-innovation
Startups don’t compete with airlines...
Miniature Airport by disparkys on Flickr
by purchasing a bunch of planeshiring a bunch of pilots
and locking up a bunch of terminals at airports.
Per Olof Arnäs
Treandra
1: Terminator - Homo Digitalis
2: Tintin - Prosumerism
logistik och transportsom kommer atttrender påverka
3: Teleportering - The Matrix[clueless] by RHiNO NEAL on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Homo Digitalis
Dante Cyborg by Roberto Rizzato on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Även om den skapade världen runt omkring oss utvecklas snabbt...
...så gäller inte samma sak för människoarten. I alla fall inte utan verktyg...
Evolution by Ryan Woon on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
People will still want the same things
Get paidGet made
Quote from Dave McClure
Get laid
Lo
qu
e e
l vien
to se
llevo / G
on
e w
ith th
e w
ind
by J. C
arlo
s Fern
án
de
z on
Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Augmented (hyper)Reality: Domestic Robocop by Keiichi Matsuda: https://vimeo.com/8569187The Aeon Project: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjnbiaY1JCEApple iLens concept by AppleiLens: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsdImcPj5SMProject Glass: One day... by Google: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c6W4CCU9M4Augmented Reality Navigation – Interface Demo by Hannes Fritz: https://vimeo.com/10401397
Per Olof Arnäs
Per Olof Arnäs
Vi blir uppkopplade mot allt som finns runt omkring oss
From Minority Report
Per Olof Arnäs
Homo EconomicusThe Economic Man
things i believe by Martin Sharman on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Homo Digitalis Economicus
The Economic ManWell-informedWell-equipped
Well-connected
Med höga förväntningar på
dataoptimeringinteraktion
things i believe by Martin Sharman on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Prosumerism
Per Olof Arnäs
3D printing demo -- ball bearings! by dehurt: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7h09dTVkdwCES 2012: Cubed 3D Home Printer by AMussey: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iB5i5SA6rKQ
uPrint SE 3D Printer Creates Wrench with Moving Parts Already Assembled by stratasysfdm: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn1hxd-MeuI3D Printer Makes Nearly Anything by PigMine3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsgORCjf7oU
Per Olof Arnäs
3D-printing kommer att ske i hemmet och i lokala/regionala ”fabs”
Ökade globala flöden av råmaterial
Minskade flöden av produkter
http
://mo
co
loc
o.co
m/u
plo
ad
/20
12
/03
/rp_g
uita
r_by_d
e/rp
_gu
itar_d
ere
k_ma
nso
n_3
b.ph
p
Per Olof Arnäs Image: Nike
Per Olof Arnäs
Enter the Matrix
Blue pill or the red pill by Sarah Fagg on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Business processes
Infra-structure
Paper based Phone
Papers
Road
signs
Analogue
tools
RDS
Monitor fuel
cosnumption
Version 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
E-m
ail
Fax
TMS
-
systems
Excel
Route planning
GPS for
navigatio
n
Electro
nically
generate
d freig
ht
documents
Barcodes
RFI
D-
tags
Simple order handling
Advanced order handling
Open interface
Web based
UIPlatform
based
systems
Hardw
are-
oriented
Data
collection
systems
(prop
rietary)
Com
munication
with vehicles
E-invoice
Web based
bookingRoute
optimisation
Th
e so
cia
l
web
Open
connectivity
Integrated
prognosis
Data collection
systems (open)
Tolling
systems
Webservices
with traffic
data
Dyn
amic
ro
utin
g sy
stem
s
Pe
rform
an
ce
Ba
sed
ac
ce
ss
Pe
rfo
rma
nc
e B
ase
d
ac
ce
ss
Mas
hups
Mul
tiple
da
ta
sour
ces
Pro
be
dat
a
Individual
routin
g
inform
ation
Platooning
PlatooningExceptions handling
Sm
art
good
s Manual
Computers
Software
Functions
Dis
trib
uted
deci
sion
m
akin
g
Goods as bi-
directio
nal
hyperlink
Inspired by Lidne, Östmar http://disruptiveleap.com
Paper based
CC-BY Per Olof Arnäs, Chalmers
Goods Vehicle
Per Olof Arnäs
Enkelt
Svårt
”Kuponger”
Kuponger
?
Business processes
Infra-structure
Paper based Phone
Papers
Road
signs
Analogue
tools
RDS
Monitor fuel
cosnumption
Version 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
E-m
ail
Fax
TMS
-
systems
Excel
Route planning
GPS for
navigatio
n
Electro
nically
generate
d freig
ht
documents
Barcodes
RFI
D-
tags
Simple order handling
Advanced order handling
Open interface
Web based
UIPlatform
based
systems
Hardw
are-
oriented
Data
collection
systems
(prop
rietary)
Com
munication
with vehicles
E-invoice
Web based
bookingRoute
optimisation
Th
e so
cia
l
web
Open
connectivity
Integrated
prognosis
Data collection
systems (open)
Tolling
systems
Webservices
with traffic
data
Dyn
amic
ro
utin
g sy
stem
s
Pe
rform
an
ce
Ba
sed
ac
ce
ss
Pe
rfo
rma
nc
e B
ase
d
ac
ce
ss
Mas
hups
Mul
tiple
da
ta
sour
ces
Pro
be
dat
a
Individual
routin
g
inform
ation
Platooning
PlatooningExceptions handling
Sm
art
good
s Manual
Computers
Software
Functions
Dis
trib
uted
deci
sion
m
akin
g
Goods as bi-
directio
nal
hyperlink
Inspired by Lidne, Östmar http://disruptiveleap.com
Paper based
CC-BY Per Olof Arnäs, Chalmers
Goods Vehicle
Per Olof Arnäs
Kan
man
maila ett
kylskåp3D Character and Question Mark by crystaljingsr on Flickr
TeleporteraBeama
Digitalisera
Per Olof Arnäs
Ja!
Bokeh Remote by Bart on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Våra styrsystem är digitala modeller av verkligheten
Remote by Kevin T. Houle on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Per Olof Arnäs
Per Olof Arnäs
Våra styrsystem är instrumentpaneler
F430 dashboard by Carlos de Paz on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Och de blir bättre
och bättre!
F430 dashboard by Carlos de Paz on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Om 30 år...hur kommer världen att se ut?
bo?arbeta?transportera?konsumera?hålla oss friska?utbildas?utvecklas?
...hur kommer vi
att
/ponder by hobvias sudoneighm on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs /ponder by hobvias sudoneighm on Flickr
Per Olof Arnäs
Per Olof ArnäsChalmers
[email protected]/perolofarnas
@Dr_PO
Tack!
Slides finns på slideshare.net/poarBilder CC-‐licensierade
/ponder by hobvias sudoneighm on Flickr