tennessee retail academy partners€¦ · 14 chipotle mexican grill $ 4,397 15 applebee's...
TRANSCRIPT
TENNESSEE RETAIL ACADEMY PARTNERS
of overall
Retail Sales
are conducted
OnlineUS Census Bureau Q4 2018
10%
retail is not dying
it’s changing
Consumer Confidence
18 Year High
The high level of confidence reflects a sturdy economic expansion in the U.S. that’s about to turn nine years old. Job openings are at a record high and unemployment is at a record low.”
The Conference BoardConsumer Confidence Index®
The Real Story
Retail Decline
• Many of these Retailers Have been Shrinking for a Decade
• Outdated Business Models or Market Issues?
Source: IHL Group, CompanyReports
Source: Lee Holman & Greg Buzek, IHL Group, Beyond the “Retail Apocalypse” to a bright Future, August 2018
Rite Aid
Stripes C-Stores
Toys R Us
Mattress Firm
Best Buy
Radio Shack
The Bon Ton
Sears/Kmart
Signet Jewelers
Ascena Retail
Charming Charlie
Gymboree
Payless Shoesource
The Children’s Place
Orchard Supply
Perfumania
Plans for 2018 Retail Stores Decline
Retail Growth
• Fastest Growing Retailers: Dollar, C-Stores, Beauty, and Specialty Hardgoods
• What’s Growing Mirrors the Incomes of Consumers:
• More Discounters
• Less Mid-Range Luxury
Source: IHL Group, CompanyReports
Source: Lee Holman & Greg Buzek, IHL Group, Beyond the “Retail Apocalypse” to a bright Future, August 2018
Walgreens
7-Eleven
Dollar General
Couche-Tard
Dollar Tree
O’ Reilly
Great Clips
Autozone
Fantastic Sam’s
Five Below
Ulta Beauty
Sherwin Williams
MINISO
Marathon Oil
Harbor Freight
Tractor Supply
Plans for 2018 Retail Store Count Growth
Every 5 Hours in America a New Dollar Store Opens
Twitter: @BeasleyLacy [email protected]
Superstores/WH Clubs
Bar / Restaurants
Convenience Stores
Specialty Softgoods
Specialty Hardgoods
Fast Food
Mass Merchandisers
Drug Stores
Department Stores
Food / Grocery
% Net Opening Stores vs Net Closing
% Banners Closing Stores % Banners Gaining Stores
For each companyclosing stores
2.7
are opening stores
Source: IHL Group, Company Reports
83%
17%
3% 85%
44%
40%36%
49%23%
34%
34%14%
54%16%
68%
26%
21%
24%
30%
36%
Source: Lee Holman & Greg Buzek, IHL Group, Beyond the “Retail Apocalypse” to a bright Future, August 2018
Retail is Growing
$$$Grocery
or Restaurant
$$$$
RESTAURANT
Source: Nations Restaurant News
3.2%
Average Systemwide Sales Growth
of Top 200 Chains
Source: Nations Restaurant News
Restaurants
Source: Nations Restaurant News
Fast Casual Growing Brands
Quick Service Restaurants
QSR [Quick Service Brands] Growing
19 BRANDS OF FOCUS OPENED IN 41% OF RA COMMUNITIES
Challenges
Goals
Why should a community invest in retail?
We surround your community with the resources and actions needed to create the desired results.
Within the Retail Academy participant communities, the June 2017 – June 2018 economic impact has created
576
new jobs
$1.7M
local tax revenue
$4.5M
state tax revenue
Retail is 15% of National GDP
Source: National Retail Federation
889,319 Jobs Supported by Retail
78,608 Retail Establishments
$51.5 Billion in Total GDP Impact
National Overview
of Restaurant
Trends
QUIZ
LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY SYSTEMWIDE SALES?
TOP
25
BY
SYST
EMW
IDE
SALE
S
Rank ChainSystemwide Sales (Millions)
1 McDonald's $ 37,639 2 Starbucks Coffee $ 18,995 3 Subway $ 10,800 4 Taco Bell $ 9,790 5 Burger King $ 9,624 6 Wendy's $ 9,342 7 Chick-fil-A $ 8,965 8 Dunkin' Donuts $ 8,459 9 Domino's $ 5,925
10 Panera Bread $ 5,538 11 Pizza Hut $ 5,511 12 KFC $ 4,417 13 Sonic Drive-In $ 4,408 14 Chipotle Mexican Grill $ 4,397
15 Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar $ 4,117 16 Olive Garden $ 4,044 17 Buffalo Wild Wings $ 3,751 18 Little Caesars Pizza $ 3,672 19 Arby's $ 3,634 20 Dairy Queen $ 3,628 21 Jack in the Box $ 3,468 22 Chili's Grill & Bar $ 3,416 23 IHOP $ 3,148 24 Panda Express $ 3,115 25 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen $ 3,036
QUIZ
LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY NUMBER OF LOCATIONS?
Rank Chain Number of Units
1 Subway 25,908
2 McDonald's 14,036
3 Starbucks Coffee 13,932
4 Dunkin' Donuts 9,141
5 7-Eleven 7,963
6 Pizza Hut 7,522
7 Burger King 7,226
8 Taco Bell 6,446
9 Wendy's 5,769
10 Domino's 5,587
11 Circle K 4,463
12 Dairy Queen 4,413
13 Little Caesars Pizza 4,301
14 KFC 4,109
15 Sonic Drive-In 3,593
16 Papa John's Pizza 3,314
17 Arby's 3,283
18 Jimmy John's Gourmet Sandwiches 2,755
19 Baskin-Robbins 2,538
20 Chipotle Mexican Grill 2,363
21 Jack in the Box 2,250
22 Chick-fil-A 2,234
23 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen 2,201
24 Casey's General Store 2,041
25 Panda Express 2,011
TOP
25
BY
NU
MB
ER O
F U
NIT
S
QUIZ
LARGEST RESTAURANT CHAIN BY AVERAGE SALES PER UNIT?
ChainAverage Annual Sales Per Unit (000)
Del Frisco’s Double Eagle Steak House $ 14,136 Mastro's Steakhouse/Ocean Club $ 13,871 Dave & Buster's $ 11,599 The Cheesecake Factory $ 10,496 Rainforest Cafe $ 9,454 Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant $ 8,793 Portillo's $ 8,763 Yard House $ 8,232 Maggiano's Little Italy $ 7,977 Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. $ 7,807 The Capital Grille $ 7,793 Fogo de Chão $ 7,655 Legal Sea Foods $ 6,926 Bahama Breeze $ 6,224 Seasons 52 $ 6,015 BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse $ 5,374 Ruth's Chris Steak House $ 5,264 Miller's Ale House $ 4,986 Texas Roadhouse $ 4,972 Saltgrass Steak House $ 4,876 Olive Garden $ 4,789 Hard Rock Cafe $ 4,578 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store $ 4,555 Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen $ 4,407 Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar $ 4,380
TOP
25
BY
AN
NU
AL
SALE
S P
ER U
NIT
TOP
15
BY
% O
F U
NIT
GR
OW
TH
Rank Chain # Units % Increase
1 MOD Pizza 92 59%
2 Shake Shack 49 41%
3 Blaze Fast-Fire'd Pizza 105 37%
4 Fuzzy’s Taco Shop 86 25%
5 Black Bear Diner 74 23%
6 Pret a Manger 65 22%
7 First Watch 140 21%
8 The Habit Burger Grill 142 21%
9 Cooper's Hawk Winery & Restaurant 20 20%
10 Zoës Kitchen 166 19%
11 Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers 177 19%
12 Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers 250 17%
13 Cafe Rio Mexican Grill 87 16%
14 Tropical Smoothie Cafe 465 16%
15 Fogo de Chão 29 16%
37
Growth Leaders
38
Growth Leaders
TOP
15
BY
# O
F U
NIT
GR
OW
TH
Rank Chain # New Units
1 Starbucks Coffee 760
2 Dunkin' Donuts 313
3 Domino's 216
4 Circle K 192
5 Taco Bell 168
6 Chipotle Mexican Grill 165
7 Jersey Mike's Subs 156
8 Chick-fil-A 149
9 Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen 134
10 Panda Express 118
11 MOD Pizza 110
12 Jimmy John's Gourmet Sandwiches 108
13 Wingstop 105
14 Marco's Pizza 97
15 Tropical Smoothie Cafe 88
2,879 new units15 brands
15
-30
BY
# O
F U
NIT
GR
OW
TH
Rank Chain # New Units
16 Firehouse Subs 77
17 Smoothie King 72
18 Burger King 70
19 Blaze Fast-Fire'd Pizza 64
20 Casey's General Store 63
21 Zaxby's 61
22 7-Eleven 59
23 Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers 50
24 Bojangles' Famous Chicken 'n Biscuits 48
25 Arby's 46
26 Cinnabon 46
27 Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers 45
28 Panera Bread 42
29 First Watch 42
30 Wawa 41
826 new units15 brands
TOP
15
BY
# O
F C
LOSI
NG
Rank Chain Net Loss
1 Subway -836
2 Pizza Hut -167
3 McDonald's -119
4 Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar -76
5 Church's Chicken -61
6 Joe's Crab Shack -60
7 Sam's Cafe (Walmart stores) -59
8 KFC -58
9 Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza -54
10 Dairy Queen -52
11 Noodles & Company -52
12 Tim Hortons -50
13 Bruegger's Bagels -41
14 Romano's Macaroni Grill -37
15 Long John Silver's -33
16 TGI Fridays -31
17 Pollo Tropical -31
18 Bob Evans Restaurants -28
19 Famous Dave's -27
20 Ruby Tuesday -21
Net Loss =-1,893 for 20 brands
New Units =+ 3,225 for 20 Brands Previously Shown Brands
Site Selection
Criteria
43
Homerun Real Estate
Convenience
High visibility / Strong signageHigh Traffic counts
Excellent Access
Ample Parking
7 FRANCHISE QSRs EXPANDING IN TN
ASK FOR PRESENTATION FROM RURAL DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE
"Lacy and her team at Retail Strategies has become a constant resource for our development team. Currently, we leverage their insights and relationships along with their tech savvy approach and local market knowledge. This give us the advantage we need across a number of difficult markets.“
-Brian L. Peterson, Director of Real Estate & Development, FOURTEEN FOODS, Diary Queen Franchisee with 200+ units
Retail in Athens, TN
Community Input & Survey
Get to Know Your Community:
A local survey using social media to target what you wish to know.
• Report was conducted March 2019
• This report will contains 1,948 responses.
• 5 Questions asked to residents of McMinn County TN via Facebook
• A prize was sent to a randomly selected local voter (beats headphones)
Used by some of the biggest names in real estate.
47
Discover
State of Tennessee
Population 6.65 Million
Athens, TN
Population 14,173
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
48
Discover: Drive Time & Radius
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies * Demographics pulled from city center as identified by internal GIS
3-Mile
Radius
5-Mile
Radius
10-Mile
Radius
5-Minute Drive
Time
10-Minute
Drive Time
15-Minute Drive
Time
Current Year Estimated
Population15,208 22,660 43,439 8,804 19,593 28,753
Number of Households 6,341 9,202 17,402 3,650 8,074 11,628
Projected Annual Growth (5 YR) 4.76% 4.51% 3.78% 3.06% 4.64% 4.25%
Median Income $32,207 $37,823 $39,498 $22,940 $36,537 $39,579
Average Age 40.1 40.6 41.3 40.2 40.4 40.9
Average Home Value $157,779 $167,398 $170,797 $118,155 $166,854 $168,838
% Bachelor's Degree 20% 19% 15% 9% 21% 18%
Daytime Population 24,448 28,883 44,536 12,638 28,325 33,809
Labor Force 6,570 10,111 19,192 2,004 8,629 12,943
49Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
Discover
50
Current Retail Overview
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
51
People Drive to Athens from a Larger Region to Shop
Mobile Data Collection
The location tracked was
Athens Walmart
for the time period of
November 2016
to
November 2017
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
This mobile tracking service
uses data collected from cell
phone users who enable
location services. By drawing a
polygon around a specific
business or location we are
able to gather valuable data
about the customer base that
has visited the location. This
tool allows us to see where
customers are coming from to
shop in your market. This
information is used to optimize
your trade area, analyze
business locations, compare
frequency of visitors, and assist
retailers in site selection. This
is intended to support the trade
area but does not solely define
the trade area.
52
Customized Trade Area
Discover: Custom Trade Area
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
Each retailer has a specific formula of market
criteria they use to determine if they will have a
profitable store. Understanding your trade area is
extremely important because it sets the
parameters for measuring demographic criteria
and spending potential sought by retailers.
Municipal boundaries, radius rings, and drive times
are a start to evaluating this information. However,
these predefined boundaries are unable to take
into account the unique aspects affecting the
pulling power and local geography of your
community. For these reasons, a customized trade
area is the next step to analyzing a market.
A trade area is the geographic area from which a
community attracts the majority of its customers.
We define your primary trade area by the base of
consumers likely to shop and eat in the market at
least once a month. Your primary trade area has
been created by combining mobile tracking data
with other factors such as: current retail mix in your
community, traffic patterns, destination attractions,
and proximity to competing markets.
The time and distance consumers are willing to
travel to shop is not “one size fits all.” Retailers will
analyze trade areas differently by accounting for
existing store locations, competition within their
retail category, and convenience.
53
Our Research
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
100,5032018 Estimated Population
Custom Trade Area
Discover: Custom Trade Area for Athens, TN
42average female age
40average male age
3.8% projected growth rate
2017-2022
104,357projected 2022 population
54
Respondents from McMinn County, TN
1,948 Votes from 546 Voters
Majority female age 18-24
March 2019
Demographic of Respondent on Crowdsourcing Survey
Summary of Top Requests
Top 15 Brands
Top Brands Not Likely
Each retailer has a specific formula of market
criteria they use to determine if they will have a
profitable store. Most retailers report to investors
which drives decisions on new store expansion.
Due to the current expansion plans and site
selection criteria not matching, it is unlikely these
three brands will open in Athens in the near future
unless something changes with the brand on a
national level.
Retail Strategies has been hired by the City of
Athens to proactively recruit retailers and
restaurants. The feedback from this report will
help Retail Strategies when marketing to these
brands. The demand is clear from the shopping
trade area that the brands would be supported.
When asked
“How would you
rank Athens shopping
and dining options
from 1/10”
the average ranking
was 5.34/10
What may NOT surprise you is that consumers from Athens are driving to Nashville, Knoxville and Chattanooga to shop.
What MAY surprise you, is the low ranking people gave for local shopping and dining options. The citizens ranked Athens at a 5.34 for shopping and dining options on a scale of 1-10.
Let’s compare Athens retail shopping options by category to other similar retail nodes based on 10 minute drive times in Walmart Supercenter.Analysis from 500 national brands
59
Discover: Peer Analysis
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
City StateResidential
Population
Daytime
Population
Median HH
IncomeMarket Supply
Athens TN 22,219 30,333 $36,537 $671,365,049
Douglas GA 21,910 16,732 $34,339 $683,527,260
Wilkesboro NC 21,830 17,822 $34,757 $667,613,258
Dublin GA 22,411 17,148 $33,876 $653,644,576
Forest City NC 22,334 13,791 $34,284 $524,871,030
Waycross GA 23,148 14,907 $32,648 $463,860,686
Tifton GA 27,197 44,711 38,597 $1,015,526,699
Retail Node Comparison Report – 10 Minute Drive
Time
60
Discover: Peer Analysis
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
4
2
12
1 1
5
8
34
5
1
22
10
6
2
15
1 1
5
11
3
6 5
1
26
2
1
Peer Report by CategoryAmong the 500 national brands, this report suggests Athens can support more retail stores.
Athens Peer Average
2 Clothing 3 Electronics 3 General
Merchandise
2 Hardware
& Garden 4 Restaurants
4 Grocery
1 Shoe Store
Although Athens is only 4 restaurants
short compared to other similar retail
nodes,
The Food and Drink category received
54% of requests for this report.
This is very high compared to the
national median of 25% for the Food
and Drink category.
Number One Requested Restaurant
Other requested
restaurant brands
mentioned repeatedly
63
When asked
“Do you leave Athens to shop and eat? If yes where?”
1. Cleveland
2. Chattanooga
3. Knoxville
When asked
“What goods and services are not currently provided in Athens that you would like to see?”
The most popular answer was, kid's/children activities.
Other answers included: more restaurants, entertainment concepts, and clothing stores.
65
Discover: Consumer Demand & Supply
Prepared for Athens_TN by Retail Strategies
Customized Retail Category GAP Analysis
$4,546,264
$8,483,424
$8,699,441
$9,144,308
$9,367,702
$10,242,621
$10,250,912
$11,572,065
$15,728,817
$19,400,085
Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instrument Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Shoe Stores
Automotive Parts, Accessories, & Tire Stores
Full-Service Restaurants
Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores
Other General Merchandise Stores
Furniture Stores
Building Material & Supplies Dealers
Top Requested Brands
When asked to name a business or entertainment experience needed downtown, the most popular response was:
skating rink
arcade
mini golf
laser tag
children related events
We started in 2011, when we saw communities who needed a retail advocate, someone who understood real estate and could negotiate connecting retailers and brokers. We now serve over 200 communities, maintaining a 5 client to 1 employee ratio.
69
11 RS TN Partners Athens
Bartlett
Cookeville
East Ridge
Johnson City
Lebanon
Martin
Oak Ridge Economic Dev.
Portland
Pigeon Forge
Tullahoma
70
Retail Strategies was founded in 2011 to assist communities seeking economic and retail growth.
Retail Strategies exists to give communities across the United States an advantage in attracting businesses.
Our mission is to provide the real estate expertise, tools and human effort that position deserving towns as alluring locations for national businesses.
With confidence, we pursue this mission by delivering unparalleled customer service as a unified team with unmatched real estate expertise.
Partnerships
JOHNSON CITY, TN- Population of 66,000
$38MM Annual Sales and 200 jobs from First Watch, Captain D’s, Five Below, Freddy’s Frozen
Custard & Steakburgers, East Coast Wings & Grill, Publix, Maple Street Biscuit Company,
Panda Express, Jo Ann Fabrics & Crafts, Petro’s Chili & Chips
www.retailstrategies.com/webinar/
Rationale for
Investment
Location of
Investor
Size of
Investment
Source of
Investment
Make a
Difference
Make a
Difference
Make a
Profit
Profit / Tax
Benefits
Primarily
Local to OZ
Primarily
National
Local or
National
Local or
National
Varies by
Community
Varies by
Investor
Primarily
Large $
TBD
Varies by
Community
Likely Not
Capital Gains
Varies
Capital Gains
Location
Impact
Opportunity
Tax Benefit
OPPORTUNITY ZONES
74
Discount
Rose’sBargain Hunt
Dirt CheapOllie’s Bargain Outlet
Dollar General Family Dollar
75
Other
Farmers FurniturePetSense
Planet FitnessHarbor Freight
Workout Anytime
76
TN Expanding Brands
MARTIN, TENNESSEE
Martin, Tennessee was quickly identified as a prospective city for Farmers Furniture. Our team worked with the Director of Economic and Community Development for Martin, TN,. Attempts to lease out this shopping center had been made before with a previous owner to no avail. The day that a buyer purchased the shopping center Retail Strategies had him introduced to the Farmers Furniture broker. After 5 months of deliberation the parties came to an agreement and executed a lease. Farmers Furniture opened fall of 2017.
Your successes grow from partnerships.Estimated Economic
Impact
$3MSales Estimate
$65,000 Local Sales Tax
Collection
115Estimated Job Creation
Tentative: RETAIL ACADEMY - JULY 22, 2019 NASHVILLE
APPLICATIONS WILL OPEN END OF APRIL
It's not just about what we are going to
give to you, it's about what we are going to
build together.
We need you to be a part of that journey.
~ Robert Jolly, CEO
Retail Strategies
retail IS economic
development
invest time &
resources in
retail
Retail’s Impact1 in 4 jobs are retail
Source:National Retail Federation
Source:National Retail Federation
Why Should a Municipality Invest Resources in Retail?
Retail builds on retail. Retail economic impact adds up quickly. Retail attracts the workforce that attracts the primary jobs. Retail influences executives looking to locate their company in your community. Retail enhances quality of life that brings your children home.
Retail builds tax base. --- Retail adds jobs from entry level to managerial. --- Retail builds communities.
September 12 – 13, 2018| Franklin, TN
Within the Retail Academy participant communities, the June 2017 – June 2018 economic impact has created
576
new jobs
$1.7M
local tax revenue
$4.5M
state tax revenue
AlamoAshland CityBolivarBrownsvilleCarthageCaryvilleCollinwoodCovingtonDresdenElizabethtonErinErwinGainesboroHohenwaldHumboldtHuntingdonHuntsvilleJamestownJellico
Kingston SpringsLafayetteLebanonLexingtonLindenLivingstonLobelvilleMaynardvilleMcKenzieMountain CityNewportOneidaParkers CrossroadsParsonsPegramPikevillePleasant ViewRipleyRutledge
SelmerSmithvilleSneedvilleSouth PittsburgSpartaSpencerSpring CityTiptonvilleTracy CityTrentonUnicoiWartburgWaynesboroWhitwellWoodbury
56 Retail Academy Communities 2016-2017
RE
TAIL
AC
AD
EM
Y C
LAS
S O
F 2
01
8
RA 101AlamoBolivarDicksonDecaturDunlapDyersburgGreenevilleHenderson Humboldt JasperJefferson City LoudonMcMinnvilleMosheimPortlandPulaskiSomervilleWhite Bluff
RA 201AthensCheatham Co.ErinErwinJamestownLexingtonMaynardvilleMcKenzieMountain CityRipleySpring CityTracy City
Tullahoma
WaynesboroWhitwell
Sammie Arnold
Brooxie Carlton
Logan McCoy
TN Department of Economic & Community Development
Kim DentonTCED Director, CISUT Institute for Public Service
Kim Denton serves as the Tennessee Certified Economic Developer (TCED) Director for the University of Tennessee Center for Industrial Services. The TCED Program provides quality training, continuing education and professional development opportunities for economic and community development practitioners and community leaders.
Stephen SurlesSenior Manager, Global BusinessTennessee Valley Authority, TVA
Stephen Surles oversees management of the regional development and technical services team to ensure all goals meet or exceed agency standards throughout the seven-state TVA service area. These goals include assisting prospective and existing industries, facilitating financial services and helping communities support and grow local businesses. His regional development team also works with TVA partners to implement community preparedness programs, deliver resources and technical assistance and coordinate TVA’s marketing and business development efforts.
This event is recognized by the
International Economic Development
Council (IEDC) as a professional
development event that counts towards
the recertification of Certified
Economic Developers (CEcDs).
Terry BobrowskiExecutive DirectorEast Tennessee Development District
Chris CraigExecutive DirectorFirst Tennessee Development District
Michael SkipperExecutive DirectorGreater Nashville Regional Council
Ralph MooreExecutive DirectorMemphis Area Association of Governments
John BucyExecutive DirectorNorthwest Tennessee Development District
Jerry MansfieldExecutive DirectorSouth Central Tennessee Development District
Beth JonesExecutive DirectorSoutheast Tennessee Development District
Joe BarkerExecutive DirectorSouthwest Tennessee Development District
Mark FarleyExecutive DirectorUpper Cumberland Development District
103
Q&A
120 18th Street South, Suite 120, Birmingham, AL 35233 205.314.0386 retailstrategies.com