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What about (Having) the Children? Rosalind B. King, National Institute of Child and Health Development

Jenifer L. Bratter, Rice University, Department of Sociology

Significance Race-Specific Fertility

Same-Race vs. Interracial Fertility

Preliminary Multivariate Analysis

Hazard of Having a Child in the First Year

Methods

Forthcoming Analyses

Interracial couples are an increasing family form. Growing numbers of Couples are crossing racial lines and a growing number of children are reared in these households.

Significance

While research has documented the likelihood of entering, its still unclear how often or how likely such couples are to bear children/

Race-Specific Trends in Fertility provide some hints:Some racial trends in fertility are moving in the same direction (e.g., White and African American); some are moving differently (e.g., Non-Hispanic White and Hispanic

Previous research shows that within-couple differences (gender and race) matter for generating differences between couples (race-specific differences)

Central Questions

How does tracking interracial fertility behavior challenge what we know about racial differences group-level fertility?.

Do patterns of interracial fertility follow the racial group patterns of the female partner or with the male partner?

Which race plays a “dominant” role in shaping the fertility behavior of the couple?

Data & Sample

The data used in these analyses come from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), a nationally representative sample of 4,928 men ages 15 to 44 (National Center for Health Statistics 2004).

For this preliminary analysis, we draw a sample of males who report having current wives or partners and who provide valid information on their wives race and Hispanic ethnicity (n=1,672) and focus specifically on those reporting marriages (n=1,045).

We show birth rates within current marriages and model the likelihood of reporting a birth within the first marriage

We employ event history analysis predicting the hazard of a birth within the first year of marriage, using complementary log-log model for continuous time processes using PROC GENMOD in SAS (Allison 1995).

We adjusted for the effects of the complex sampling design using weighted generalized estimation equations (GEE)

•Volatility of fertility rates reflects higher level instability (divorce) of intermarried couples

•Likelihood of first birth is shaped more by race than gender.

•Fertility of White males in intermarriages is lower than homogamous couples, however Blacks in intermarriages are more likely to have a birth compared to Blacks married to other Blacks

OPTIONALLOGO HERE

OPTIONALLOGO HERE

0.7

5.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1970 2000

Year

Percent of All Couples that are Interracial

1.5

6.4

01234567

1970 2000

Year

Percent of Children living in Intermarried

Households

Source: Lee & Edmonston 2005. “New Marriage, New Families: U.S. Racial and Hispanic Intermarriage” Population Bulletin 60(2):1-40

Same Race and Interracial Birth Ratesfor white-white and White-nonwhite couples

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

6 18 30 42 54 66 78 90 102

114

126

138

150

162

174

186

Months of Marriage

Bir

ths

per

1,0

00

Same Race

White husband - Non- White

White wife

Same Race and Interracial Fertiilty Rates for Black-Blackand Black- Non-Black Couples (Male-Female)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Months of Marriage

Bir

ths

per

100

0

Black-Black

Black - Other

Other - Black

White-White vs. White Husband – Non-White Wife

& Non-White Husband & White Wife

Black- Black vs. Black Husband – Non-Black Wife

& Non-Black Husband & Black Wife

0.736*

1.012

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

WhiteHusb.

WhiteWife

OR

Figure 1. Odds of Having A child in first year of Intermarriage by race of spouse(Reference White – White Couples)

Figure 2. Odds of Having A child in First year of Marriage by race of spouse(Reference Black - Black Couples)

2.57*

2.81*

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

BlackH.usb

BlackWife

OR

Note: Models Adjust for Age at Marriage, Birth Cohort, & Education of Respondent. *p<.001Findings

•Integrate the role of cohabitation as context for fertility behavior

•Include more groups

•Add controls for other indicators of achieved and ascribed traits that impact both whether or not a child is born and whether or not a couple is intermarried