Telephone Surveys: Challenges Telephone Surveys: Challenges for the Futurefor the Future

Clyde TuckerClyde Tucker

Bureau of Labor StatisticsBureau of Labor Statistics

What Has Led to the ChallengesWhat Has Led to the Challenges

Technological ChangeTechnological Change

Societal ChangeSocietal Change

Technological ChangeTechnological Change

Less clustering in 100-banksLess clustering in 100-banks– Declines in listing ratesDeclines in listing rates– Expansion of the areacodesExpansion of the areacodes– Multiple carriersMultiple carriers

Number portabilityNumber portability Cell-only and cell-mostly householdsCell-only and cell-mostly households Possible drop in the coverage of Possible drop in the coverage of

residential landline numbersresidential landline numbers

More on Technological ChangeMore on Technological Change

VoIP and wireless broadbandVoIP and wireless broadband Single device for multiple types of Single device for multiple types of

communicationscommunications The availability of a cheaper mode—the The availability of a cheaper mode—the

InternetInternet

Consequences of Technological Consequences of Technological ChangeChange

More complicated designsMore complicated designs– Dual frame samplingDual frame sampling– Use of multiple modesUse of multiple modes

New contact procedures, interviewer New contact procedures, interviewer training, and outcome codestraining, and outcome codes

More knowledgeable tech staff having More knowledgeable tech staff having a more central rolea more central role

New weighting methodologyNew weighting methodology More reliance on cost-benefit analysisMore reliance on cost-benefit analysis

Societal ChangeSocietal Change

The continued feasibility of The continued feasibility of telephone surveys depends much telephone surveys depends much less on what communication less on what communication devices we use to reach devices we use to reach respondents than on the respondents than on the continued cooperation of these continued cooperation of these respondents respondents

More on Societal changeMore on Societal change

Change in household compositionChange in household composition– Decline in married couples heading householdsDecline in married couples heading households– Increase in households with unrelated individualsIncrease in households with unrelated individuals– Increase in single-person householdsIncrease in single-person households

Growing linguistic and cultural diversityGrowing linguistic and cultural diversity Growing concerns about privacy and confidentialityGrowing concerns about privacy and confidentiality More two-earner households among married householdsMore two-earner households among married households Possible loss in sense of community (Bowling Alone?)Possible loss in sense of community (Bowling Alone?) Changing communication patterns in householdsChanging communication patterns in households

– TechnologyTechnology– More eating away from homeMore eating away from home

Consequences of Societal ChangeConsequences of Societal Change

Increasing differences among subpopulations Increasing differences among subpopulations (interactions)(interactions)

Procedural changeProcedural change– Management of phone surveys harderManagement of phone surveys harder– Use of multiple modes and possible mode effectsUse of multiple modes and possible mode effects– Hiring of more diverse interviewersHiring of more diverse interviewers– Changes in pattern of call schedulingChanges in pattern of call scheduling

Declining response rates (especially due to noncontact)Declining response rates (especially due to noncontact) Growing concerns about nonresponse bias Growing concerns about nonresponse bias

Trends in Response RatesTrends in Response Rates