telecoms at the edge - mit ideebusiness.mit.edu/sponsors/common/2003-jan-wkshp-telecom/... · 2003....
TRANSCRIPT
R Brad Kummer, CTO
Telecoms at the EdgeJanuary 15,2003
Disrupting the Second Mile?Scalable Fiber Networks
Who is Cogent
Third largest provider of U.S. Internet route capacity, ranked by Telegeography
First Extended Ethernet Optical Network (XEON) to use Layer 3 protection resembling a nationwide switched LAN
Capital efficient with thin facilities-based network secured through IRUs (12,500 route mile two-fiber inter-city network and 6,000 route mile intra-city network)
Primary product offering is LAN-to-Internet 100 Mbps Ethernet access for $1,000 per month serving SMEs in multi-tenant buildings in CBDs in 21 major metropolitan areas
Founded in 1999 and publicly traded company (AMEX:COI)
Acquired PSINet’s U.S. assets and customer base out of bankruptcy
Milestones
National Footprint
Competitive Positioning
AT&T, Genuity, Qwest, Sprint, UUNetBACKBONE PROVIDERS
Sigma Networks, Sphera, Telseon, Urban Media
METRO PROVIDERSBankrupt / Acquired
Allied Riser, Broadband Office, eziaz, OnSite Access
IN-BUILDING PROVIDERSBankrupt / Acquired
Cog
ent
Cogent had executed on a unique business plan and constructed a facilities-based, all-optical, nationwide network consisting of:
a dedicated nationwide multiple OC-192 DWDM fiber backbone (80 Gb/s)multiple metropolitan DWDM/CWDM fiber rings (2 – 5 Gb/s to each building)in-building infrastructure operating in 564 buildings, as of Dec 31, 2002
OTHER BANKRUPTCIES: 360 Networks, Advanced Radio Telecom, Northpoint, PSINet, Teligent, Winstar Communications
Sell T-1 Internet connectivity to approximately 18,000 (180,000+ tenants) office buildings within a 10 mile radius of a Cogent POPMaintain PSINet’s customers and migrate those in CQBs to Cogent serviceSell collocation at the data centers to help broaden Cogent’s product setIdentify a managed hosting partner to offer complete hosting at Cogent’s data centersIncrease Cogent’s geographic reach in the SME market to improve national account footprint
A New Addressable Revenue Stream
Increase Network EfficienciesExpand peering with other major providers through the combined Cogent/PSINet connections; second only to UUNet in the U.S.Increase network utilization on the combined networkUtilize common (Cogent) management tools and NOC to decrease overhead per $ of revenue
PSINet Strategy
News
Cogent has been named as one of the few companies destined to survive the Telecom downturn
“Probe's [Lynda] Starr predicts the following survivors: Allegiance, Alltel, AT&T Wireless Services, Citizens, Cogent, Focal, GoAmerica, GRIC, Hickory, Infonet, Leap, Motient, Nextel, Primus, SBC, TWTC, Verizon, Vodafone, Weblink.”
Survivor: TelecomWho Will Outdo the Competition? Experts Pick Their Favorites
Lynda B. Starr, Vice President of U.S. Carrier Research, Probe Research Inc.
Cogent only targets buildings with validated demand and buildings that can be economically served
As of Dec 31, 2002, Cogent had 1,715 signed real estate agreements totaling approximately 700 million rentable square feet
REIT deals with: Crescent, Carlyle, Jameson Properties, Rudin, Tishman Speyer, Fibernet, Sunbelt, Shorenstein
Other trophy buildings include: One Liberty Place (Phila), Georgia-Pacific Bldg (Atlanta), Bank Once Center (Dallas), Wells Fargo Tower (LA), Transamerica Pyramid (SF), US Bank Bldg (Denver)
Real Estate
Sample of Cogent Target Buildings:
The Sears TowerChicago
The Chrysler BldgNew York
The Chevron TowerHouston
Washington MutualSeattle
Dial up17%
ISDN2%
DSL40%Cable
3%
Frac T9%
Full T127%
T32%
Addressable Market
Cogent Retail Building Profile
Cogent Communications Proprietary and Confidential
T1 +
Frac T1
DSL / Cable
Dial-Up
29%
9%
43%
19%
81%= Cogent
MarketAverage Tenants = 50
Addressable market within Cogent target buildings is substantial. (Nearly 40 percent have some type of T-1 product. 81% of tenants have at least DSL. )
Approximately 35% of users felt they could be more productive with more bandwidth.
Market Growth
Traffic GrowthInternet traffic growth is significant, even though it has been inflated and, in some cases, incorrectly reported in recent years (e.g., Worldcom’s claims of 1000% growth)Best estimates for growth suggest traffic is growing approximately 85% to 100% per year (source: RHK, AT&T Research Labs)Meanwhile, the number of US corporations is growing at just 2% per year, thus the growth is in actual usage, not just connections
Corporate Usage GrowthResearch shows that when customers get more bandwidth, they use it. For example, when customers switch from a T1 to a T3, their utilization increases by more than 28x (i.e., more than the capacity increase) (Source: RHK)Corporations expect to increase data usage by 11% in the next year (Source: Morgan Stanley).
YE 2000
YE 2001
YE 2002
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Peta
byte
s
Internet Traffic GrowthOffered Load
Source: RHK
Cogent’s addressable market is solid and growing.
Internet usage continues to expand.
Provide transparent, non-blocking connectivity between Prem and Hub routers
Collect as much traffic over as little fiber as possible
Provide national backbone network w/peering
Scale the network as needed, quickly, easily
Provisioning connections quickly
Reducing per-user cost: cost/bit delivered as well as provisioning
Objectives of the Network
Internet Architecture
Customer
Cogent’s NetworkCustomer
Terabit Router
Terabit Router
Terabit Router
Terabit Router
DWDM
DWDM
Gigabit Router
Cat-5 Cable in Building
Multimode fiber
Customer
Traditional Network
Router Router
RouterRouter
T-1
Dial-Up
Customer
Customer
Leased Voice Circuits
Leased Voice Circuits
Leased Voice CircuitsATM Switch
ATM Sw
itchATM
Switch
ATM Switch
CORE EDGE Customer
Customer
Network Design Philosophy
• Traditional View– Bandwidth is a highly valuable and expensive
resource which must be carefully managed to achieve an acceptable balance between customer performance and network cost
– Multi-service networks (voice has highest revenue/bit)– Elaborate network designs, QoS levels, complicated
network management and administration
Cogent ViewBandwidth is cheap, apply it liberally!Single service, data-only network (highest growth)Elegantly simple network design, all customers receive highest possible QoS (non-oversubscribed), simple network management and administration
“Pygmalion Effect” – Self-fulfilling prophecy
Why Build a Data Only Network?
Internet traffic is driving network growth, however, the 1.1 trillion dollars of network PPE is optimized for voice traffic
Aggregate voice revenue is declining and revenue per interfaced-switched bit/mile is declining for voice and data
It is becoming impossible for legacy carriers to cross-subsidize data traffic to capture the shift in revenues
Pioneer Consulting
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0Incumbent’s Profit Gap
Bit of Voice per Mile vs.
Bit of Data per Mile
AT&T
7x
15x
1990 2000
Gbps Growth Rate
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Voice Private Internet0%
50%
100%
Voice PrivateWAN
Internet
Cost Increase – 2.5x
Revenue Increase – 1.75x
Capacity Increase – 4x
Revenue Per Bit
Yankee Group
Other ISP
Traditional Facilities
SONET
LECCentralOffice
Customer's Premises
To Customer'sLAN
LocalLoop
Channel Bank orIntegrated Access
Device (IAD)
Channel Service Unit/
Data ServiceUnit
(CSU/DSU)
Class FiveSwitch
Class FourSwitch
SON
ET M
ultip
lexe
rSO
NET
Ter
min
alSO
NET
Tra
nspo
nder
SON
ET T
rans
pond
erSO
NET
Ter
min
alSO
NET
Mul
tiple
xer
DACS
ATMSwitch
Layer 3Router
ATMSwitch
DACS
Cogent utilizes a 1 fiber intracity network to achieve the lowest cost per bit/mile (transport) local (local fiber on average costs 10 times higher so optronics cost of bi-directional systems are justified, approximately a 20% differential)Removing hierarchical switching and switching all traffic at the packet level has lowest costProtecting the network at Layer 3 reduces fiber optronics cost by 50%Minimize the number of O-E-O conversions in the network
Utilizing the router for O-E-O conversion and 3R functionality reduces initial network cost by approximately 70% and incremental channel costs by approximately 90%Cogent utilizes a 2 fiber intercity network to achieve the lowest cost per bit/mile (transport) long haul
Network Architecture
Network Architecture
5 Gbps
Multi-Tenant Building
DWDM Metro Rings
16 ChannelDWDM
Coupler
Metro Router
Metro DWDM
AVANEX
Metro DWDM Core Router Backbone DWDM
Multiple OC-192Nationwide Backbone
80 Gbps
Cogent HUB
COGENT 15800
AUX
IN
Multimode fiber or Cat 5
Edge Router
Metro DWDM
Battery Back Up
OADM
Catalyst2948G-L3
LAYER 3S WITCH
AVANEX
Cogent Metro System Architecture Evolution
GSR
2 x GbE
MetroDWDM
SR G
BIC
BiDirDWDM
BiDirOADM
MetroDWDM
SR G
BIC
EdgeRouter
SR G
BIC
Cust 1
Cust 20
…
100 Mbps20 Customers
1-fiber ring
26 dB LossBudget
Initial DWDM Architecture
GSR
CW
DM
GB
IC
CWDMMUX
CWDMA/D
(OADM)
EdgeRouter
CW
DM
GB
IC
Cust 1
Cust 20
…
100 Mbps20 Customers
2-fiber ring
32 dB LossBudget
New CWDM Architecture
~50% Equipment SavingsCWDM GBICs CWDM GBICs
IP over WDMArchitecture Advantages
Shared GbEShared GbE 1 Gb/stotal BW
Shared GbE Ring• 1 Gb/s total bandwidth shared by all buildings on the ring
• No protection
• Statistical Multiplexing(oversubscribed)
CogentCogent16-40 Gb/stotal BW
1 - 2.5 Gb/s
1 - 2.5 Gb/s
IP over WDM• 2 - 5 Gb/s bandwidth to EACH BUILDING on the ring
• Layer 3 (IP) Protection
• Non-oversubscribed
Cogent Advantage
PriceCogent’s price is already cost-based and one of the lowest in the industry.
Capex and OpexAs prices decline, large carriers will be forced into extreme Opex and Capex reductions, potentially as high as 55% (source RHK). This will be unsustainable for many carriers.Cogent Capex and Opex are already “right-sized” for this market.
Cogent’s SG&A as a percent of total Opex is considerably lower than that of the larger carriers, primarily due to lower customer acquisition costsCogent’s BSS/OSS costs are significantly lower than traditional carriers, due to no interface with the ILEC and flat rate billing
DivergenceGiven the instability in the marketplace, customers no longer want to put all their eggs in one basketMost are looking to purchase data services unique from voice services, which again provides an advantage to Cogent
Cogent maintains several operational competitive advantages in targeting the business Internet market: