teg presentation to aagstl 1-17-12forweb
DESCRIPTION
The presentation was given by Henry Edmonds to a monthly meeting of the Alarm Association of Greater St. Louis.TRANSCRIPT
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© The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
Presentation to Alarm Association of Greater St. Louis
January 17, 2012
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2 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
Summary Introduction Industry Overview M&A Activity Alarm Industry Market Values Current Capital Market Conditions Buying/Selling Alarm Businesses Q&A
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INTRODUCTION
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4 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
Henry Edmonds Over 26 years of capital markets experience Started Edmonds Group in 2004 Founder (2005) and past Chairman of APB Services Co-Founder (1990) and CEO of SLP Capital
Largest lender to alarm industry when sold to CapitalSource in 2004
Over $400M of alarm loans Wall Street investment banker (1985-1990)
$2B in transactions in the airline industry MBA, Harvard Business School BS, with distinction, civil engineering, University of
Virginia
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5 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
The Edmonds Group Investment banking services
Capital raising and mergers/acquisitions advisory Approximately 40 transactions closed
Average transaction size about $50 million Sweet spot $10 million to $300 million
$2.0 billion transaction value Focused on security alarm industry Broad experience representing buyers, sellers,
borrowers and capital providers High level of client service
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ALARM INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
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7 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
North American Alarm Industry 20% household penetration
36 million households of 180 million 50% business market penetration
3 million businesses of 6 million Total industry revenue estimated to be $43.9 billion
for 2011 Sales and installation - $26.8 billion
Shrinking at 8% for 2010 and 2% for 2011 Growth in 2012?
Monitoring services - $17.1 billion Growing at 10% for 2010 and 3% for 2011 Continued slow growth for 2012?
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8 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
Total Alarm Industry Revenue
$22.3 $24.1 $25.4 $25.5 $29.5
$32.3
$48.5 $44.7 $43.9 $43.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($ b
illio
ns)
(methodology change between 2007 and 2008)
Source: SDM Magazine
estimated
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9 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
Security Monitoring and Service Revenue
$10.3 $10.7
$17.0
$15.2
$16.7 $17.1
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($ b
illio
ns)
Source: SDM Magazine
(methodology change between 2007 and 2008)
estimated
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10 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
North American Alarm Industry Very fragmented - over 15,000 local and regional
providers Top five companies control only 39% of the market 20th largest company has about $3 million in RMR
86,000 customers Companies 95 to 100 in the SDM 100 average just
over: $200,000 in RMR 5,000 customers
A number of companies don’t submit data to SDM Would be on the list if they did
Companies with less than $200,000 in RMR control almost 50% of the market
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11 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
North American Alarm Industry Recurring Revenue Market Share
ADT Security Services
29% Protection
One 3%
Monitronics Int. 3%
Vivint 2% Stanley
2%
6-100 12%
Other 49%
2010 Estimated Market Share
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12 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
SDM 100 Ranked by RMR – Top 10
Source: http://www.sdmmag.com
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13 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
SDM 100 Ranked by RMR – Second 10
Source: http://www.sdmmag.com
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SDM 100 Ranked by RMR – Last 10
Source: http://www.sdmmag.com
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15 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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Tyco/ADT Tyco breaking into public companies
ADT North America Residential - $3.1B in revenue Also includes small commercial
Fire and Safety - $10.2B in revenue Large commercial, all international and product
companies (Simplex Grinnell; Software House etc.) Flow Control - $3.7B in revenue
Likely means each will be more acquisitive Quarterly growth expectation for Wall Street
More transparent public data How long with ADT NA Residential stay public
Public market discount for RMR business Takeover target
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ALARM INDUSTRY M&A ACTIVITY
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17 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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Liquidity/Secondary Market Activity Active secondary market for buying/selling alarm
companies or just contracts Hundreds of transactions occur every year
Entire companies Dealer programs Bulk sales of accounts only
Larger (more efficient) buyers get predictable and significant economies of scale by acquiring
Transactions trade based on buyer’s cash flow not seller Hence RMR multiples Still all about cash flow
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18 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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Major M&A Transactions 2012
BV Capital Partners - DTT 2011
Bain Capital – Securitas Direct (Europe) Stanley Works – Niscayah (Europe), Microtech (Canada) Tyco/ADT – Signature Security (Australia)
2010 Ascent Media – Monitronics RockBridge – Connect America (PERS), Protect America Summit Partners – Central Security Group Oak Hill – Security Networks ADT - Broadview GTRC – Protection One
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19 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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Dealer Programs/Bulk Sales Significant factor in the industry today Approximately 1 million accounts purchased in 2011
Doesn’t include company acquisitions (like Broadview) Dealer program purchases
Weekly or monthly closings Typically newly created accounts
Bulk sales Accounts only Aged accounts Usually one off transaction Seller stays in business
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20 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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Dealer Programs/Bulk Sales
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
690 710 620
740 850
1,000 Number of accounts purchased (in 000s)
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ALARM INDUSTRY VALUATIONS
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22 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
Key Valuation Metrics Cash flow margin from existing customers
Adjusted EBITDA and SSCF Attrition rate
Total lost RMR on a TTM or trailing 6 mo basis divided by average RMR outstanding
Creation cost of new customers Total direct and indirect cost associated with new
account creation, less upfront revenue, divided by newly created RMR
“Net Creation Cost” – before allocation of corp. overhead “Gross Creation Cost” – after allocating corp. overhead
Growth rate
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Cash Flow Adjusted EBITDA
Reported EBITDA - earnings before interest, depreciation, amortization and taxes
Adjusted to exclude all creation costs Example: Monitronics vs. ADT
Adjusted EBITDA margin – EBITDA as a % of revenue Steady State Cash Flow
Adjusted EBITDA reduced by the cost to replace attrition This is the sustainable or steady state cash flow the
business is generating SSCF margin – SSCF as a % of revenue
Free Cash Flow After all investment in creation
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24 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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Average Industry Metrics Margins on existing customers
Adjusted EBITDA of 50% to 65% for companies with scale
Attrition rate 8% to 12%
Creation cost Gross Creation Cost 25x to 35x Net Creation cost 20x to 30x
Growth rate 10% to 30% organic Summer programs - can be much faster Dealer programs – can be much faster
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25 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
Other Valuation Drivers
Size of transaction Company reputation Ease of reprogramming/line swing Sales approach to generation customers Credit score profile/amount of upfront payment RMR per account Volume of account generation Critical mass per market/geography Quality of account and financial data
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Other Valuation Drivers (cont.)
Scanned and original contracts Standard contract form and term
Automatic renewals, appropriate disclaimers Quality of installs Service call rates Billing profile Homogeneity of accounts Age of accounts Type of RMR (residential vs. commercial)
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27 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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RMR Multiples for Alarm Sale Transactions
38.0x 45.0x 45.0x
64.0x
32.8x 37.4x 38.4x
42.9x
25.0x 30.0x 27.0x
30.8x
0.0x
10.0x
20.0x
30.0x
40.0x
50.0x
60.0x
70.0x
< $50K $50K-$100K $101K-$500K > $500K $ RMR per transaction
(minimum, average and maximum multiples paid 2002-2012)
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28 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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Under 50k in RMR Transactions Fewer than 2,000 accounts Buyers are typically local or regional companies Too small for national buyers or PE firms
Not enough scale to support financial reporting requirements
Angel investors provide equity to the extent available Friends and family
Multiples in the 20’s for smaller end, low 30s for larger end
71% of all deals involve fewer than 300 accounts (SDM)
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29 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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$50k to $100k in RMR Transactions 2,000 to 4,000 accounts Very similar buyers to under $50k transactions
Local/regional firms Too small for national buyers or PE firms Angel investors provide equity to the extent available
Friends and family Multiples typically in the 30s
Occasionally approaching 40x in frothy markets
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30 © The Edmonds Group, LLC 2012 Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as they are
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$100k to $500k in RMR Transactions 4,000 to 20,000 accounts Sweet spot for regional consolidators Smaller PE firms also like this size transaction
Equity checks of $2M to $8M Big enough to afford CFO $200k and up - good size for industry focused lenders
Nationals take an interest in these deals If they buy, typically just for accounts Shut down seller’s operations
Multiples mid 30’s to mid 40s Depends on market conditions Quality of management and accounts
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Over $500k in RMR transactions Over 20,000 customers Buyers are nationals, non-industry strategics and
larger PE firms Nationals still likely to consolidate or shut down
operations Non-industry strategics and PE firms keep operation
and management Becomes a platform for add-on acquisitions
Multiples over 40x unless distressed or underperforming operation Not many data points each year, so significant swings in
the data
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CAPITAL MARKET CONDITIONS
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Debt Markets Very favorable for middle market and lower middle
market transactions Loan facilities under $250 million
Lots of experienced and interested industry lenders Banks, specialty finance companies, hedge funds
However, most industry leaders require a minimum deal size of $5 million to $10 million Alarm Financial Services (AFS) - $200,000 to $1.5
million CapitalSource - will go as low as $3 million if
transaction is very straight forward Local/regional banks will lend smaller amounts
Lack of industry understanding – low advance rates
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Typical Experienced Lender Deal 2-3 year revolver
Some facilities term out over five to seven years Borrowing base with advance rate of 22-26x RMR
Stretch senior advance rates up to 30x Pricing 4% to 6% (LIBOR + 300 to 500 with 1% floor) Covenants typically include:
Debt/RMR Permitted attrition rate Permitted creation cost Debt service coverage Capital expenditure
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Typical Subordinated Debt Deal 5 to 7 year term debt
Bullet maturity or amortization beginning in year 5 Maximum advance rate of 26-32x RMR Current coupon 8-12% Additional PIK interest of 2% to 4% May required warrants or other yield enhancement
Designed to push all-in return to 15% to 20% Unsecured or second lien position Similar covenants to senior debt with an additional
cushion
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Equity Markets Also very favorable Over 2,000 private equity firms in the US
Firms come in all sizes Close to $500 billion in money to spend Many more PE firms interested in the alarm industry
Industry performed well through 2008/2009 recession Viewed as safe harbor with good upside potential
Favorable debt market conditions help valuations Not many public alarm companies
Very expensive to be a small public company (market capitalization of less than $500 million)
Markets don’t really understand alarm industry accounting
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Strategic Buyers Large alarm industry firms are acquisitive
ADT, Protection One, Monitronics, Stanley Midsize firms too
Security Networks, ASG, CSG, Guardian, Vector Non industry strategics looking more closely
Ascent Media bought Monitronics Stanley entered the alarm market several years ago Phone companies, cable companies dabbling again
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BUYING/SELLING ALARM BUSINESSESS/ACCOUNTS
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Key Considerations Market timing
Timing makes a huge difference Be prepared
Good data, good performance Benefit from experienced advisors
Investment bankers Accountants/due diligence experts Lawyers
Mistakes can be very costly If seller, could leave a lot of money on the table If buyer, might not get what you think you’re getting or
pay too much
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Key Considerations Valuations very much affected by capital market
conditions Debt and private equity markets are currently very
favorable Supply and demand – very health supply at the moment Cost and terms
Need to know what your business is worth if you’re selling
Need to know what the market is and what you’re getting if you’re buying
IT’S A SELLER’S MARKET TODAY Still good opportunities for buyers if selective
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QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
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© The Edmonds Group, LLC Materials may be freely distributed if unaltered as long as
they are fully credited and sourced to The Edmonds Group.
Contact Information
Henry Edmonds The Edmonds Group, LLC
16 Lenox Place St. Louis, MO 63108 Ph: 314.422.4649
Email: [email protected] Website: www.theedmondsgroup.com