tedxdar 2011 presentation by january makamba

8/3/2019 TEDxDar 2011 Presentation by January Makamba

1/49

WHO KILLED ZINJANTHROPUS?


2/49

WHAT KILLED ZINJANTHROPUS?


3/49

HOW DID ZINJANTHROPUS DIE?


4/49

HOW DID ZINJANTHROPUS LIVE?


5/49

AMENITIES OF LIFE


6/49

SAMENESS


7/49

BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO OUR SURVIVAL?


8/49

SAMENESS


9/49

HOW DO WE LIVE NOW?


10/49

TYPICAL TANZANIAN


11/49

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

9

90-9

4

95-9

9

100+

Millions

Male Population


12/49

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

9

90-9

4

95-9

9

100+

Millions

Male Population Female Population


13/49

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

0-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

9

90-9

4

95-9

9

100+

Millions

Male Population Female Population


14/49


15/49

Doesnt have asecondary education

Lives in a mud house Fetches water from a

dugout well

Uses pit latrine Has no mobile phone Walks to most places

Rarely eats meat or fish

ZawadiaTYPICAL Tanzanian


16/49

7

17.519

24

19.5

36

Household size First intercourse Married Husband age First child Last child

Zawadi was born to a family ofseven people


17/49

First intercourse at the age of17.5 years

7

17.519

24

19.5

36



18/49

Marries at the age of19 years

7

17.519

24

19.5

36



19/49

to a man 5 years older than her

7

17.519

24

19.5

36



20/49

First child at the age of19.5 years

7

17.519

24

19.5

36



21/49

and last child at the age of36 years old

7

17.519

24

19.5

36



22/49

HOW DO WE LIVE?


23/49


24/49

Assured of universityeducation

Lives in a 4-bedroomhouse, with pipe water

and sewer system

Drinks bottled water Drives to most places Has a 78% chance of

employment in a non-

farm job Has more than one

mobile phone

Regularly eats meat andfish


25/49

Vanessa was born in a family offive people

7

17.519

24

19.5

36

5

18.5

23.2

26.2

23.5

32


Zawadi

Vanessa


26/49

First intercourse at the age of18.5 years

7

17.519

24

19.5

36

5

18.5

23.2

26.2

23.5

32



27/49

Marries at the age of23.2 years

7

17.519

24

19.5

36

5

18.5

23.2

26.2

23.5

32



28/49

to a man three years older than her

7

17.519

24

19.5

36

5

18.5

23.2

26.2

23.5

32



29/49

First child at the age of23.5 years old

7

17.519

24

19.5

36

5

18.5

23.2

26.2

23.5

32



30/49

and last child at the age 32 years old

7

17.519

24

19.5

36

5

18.5

23.2

26.2

23.5

32



31/49

Both get married already pregnant

3 Months

5.4 Months

Zawadi Vanessa


32/49

Vanessa will have fewer kids than she desires, Zawadi more kidsthan she desires

4.7

5.5

3.7

3

Preferred number of children Actual number of children had

Zawadi Vanessa


33/49

Population increasingly getting younger


34/49

Number of poor increasing

25

33

36

20

30

28

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1992 2000 2007

Millions

$2 a day (PPP) $1.25 a day (PPP)

Poverty headcount ratio based on $2 and $1.25 a day (PPP)


35/49

The rich get richer, everyone else get poorer

-0.63

-1.07 -0.99

-0.53

3.22

Lowest20% Second20% Third20% Fourth20% Highest20%

Change of income share between 1992 and 2007


36/49

Economy growing, but consumption erratic

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1992

1993

19

94

1995

1996

19

97

19

98

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

20

04

2005

2006

20

07

GDPpercapitagrowth(annual%) ConsumpKonpercapitagrowth(annual%)


37/49

SAMENESS


38/49


39/49

IS IT POSSIBLE?


40/49

Need to harvest almost 15% of all available renewable water tosatisfy domestic middle income demand every year

31

50

72

2000 2050 (Popgrowth only)

2050 (Popgrowth +

climate

change)

Water Stress in Tanzania(percent of population

affected)

14.51

3.87

96.75

Required consuption

Current harvestcapacity

Available water

Available renewable water andusage (trillion litres/year)


41/49

Zawadis income need to grow 6x

$530

$3000

Current Middle income

Needed Per Capita Income Growth


42/49

Annual protein consumption equivalent to 7m cows, or 56pct ofcurrently available cow population

7m cows willbe needed

every year

Only 12.5mcows available

today

Middle Income consumption


43/49

or equivalent to 900 million chicken, 26x current chickenconsumption

35m

900m

Current consumption Required for middle incomeconsumption


44/49

Power consumption increases 28x

4.3

120.0

Current

consumption

Middle income

consumption

Electricity consumption(billion kWh)

1100

15000

Current installed

capacity

Required capacity

Installed Capacity(MW)


45/49

Fuel consumption to increase 19x, from current 14m to 260mbarrels per year

3.6

7.1

23.1

28.8

Official reserves 2010 (FX& Gold)

Overall import bill 2010 GDP 2010 (current US$) Fuel import bill at middleincome

Fuel import bill 4x amount spent on all imports 2010 and 1.3x 2010 GDP

(billion USD)


46/49

IS IT SUSTAINABLE?


47/49

WILL CLIQUE OF CONSUMERISM KILL HOMO SAPIENS?


48/49

Hadzabe eat better than average Tanzanian

2100

2140

2010

Recommended Hadzabe Tanzania


49/49

ZINJANTHROPUS LIVED BETTER THAN HOMO SAPIENS?

tedxdar 2011 presentation by january makamba

Documents