technology roadmap for light-duty vehicle cafe & ghg … presentations/day 1... · technology...

www.ricardo.com

Ricardo plc 2014

2014 CRC Advanced Fuel and Engine Efficiency Workshop

John J. Kasab, Richard B. Crossley, and Neville Jackson

25 February 2014

Technology Roadmap for Light-Duty

Vehicle CAFE & GHG Emissions

2 Ricardo plc 2014 RD.14/42601.1 25 February 2014 Unclassified - Public Domain

About Ricardo

Introduction

Roadmaps

Conclusions

Outline


About Ricardo

Who we are


Marine Clean Energy &

Power Generation

Commercial Vehicles High Performance

Vehicles & Motorsport

Motorcycles &

Personal Transportation

Defense

UK MoD TACOM

Passenger Car Agricultural &

Industrial Vehicles

Government

& Environment

Rail

About Ricardo

Who we work with

http://www.scania.be/


About Ricardo

Introduction

Roadmaps

Conclusions

Outline


Federal regulations governing light duty vehicle fleet fuel economy and

greenhouse gas emissions were approved August 2012

54.5 mpg equivalent combined fleet average (62.0 for cars, 44.0 for trucks),

assuming no off-cycle credits are used

50% reduction in new vehicle fuel consumption from MY2011 to MY2025

Vehicle electrification will be part of the solution, but the vast majority of vehicles

sold in 2025 will still have

internal combustion

engines in them

Both "conventional"

powertrain and hybrids

Regulatory Framework

Challenge or Opportunity

163 g CO2/mi equivalent to 54.5 mpg fleet average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Fu

el E

co

no

my (

mp

g)

Ca

rbo

n D

iox

ide

Lim

it (

g/m

i)

Model Year

Passenger Cars

Light Trucks

Combined Cars & Trucks

Combined Fleet

27.3 mpg

35.5 mpg

54.5 mpg

http://www.arb.ca.gov/


The growth of both regulation and targets for Low Carbon

Vehicles sets a major challenge for the road transport sector

Sources: http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/Oct2010_Summary_Report.pdf www.theicct.org/info/documents/PVstds_update_apr2010.pdf;

US 2025: 107

EU 2020: 95

Japan 2020: 105

China 2020: 117

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Gra

ms

CO

2 p

er

kil

om

ete

r, n

orm

ali

ze

d t

o N

ED

C

US-LDV

California-LDV

Canada-LDV

EU

Japan

China

S. Korea

Australia

Solid dots and lines: historical performance

Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets

Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets

Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower.

[2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.

US Requires 4.7%

annual reduction

EU Requires 3.9%

annual reduction

China proposing

aggressive targets

Global

convergence

will encourage

common

technologies

Key Future Automotive Challenges

http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/Oct2010_Summary_Report.pdf


About Ricardo

Introduction

Roadmaps

Conclusions

Outline


Downsized

Combustion

Engines

Combustion

Engine/ Hybrid

Automated

Intelligent

Control

Next Gen ICE

+ Heat

Recovery

Low Loss Transmissions

& Actuators Lightweighting

Hydrogen

Fuel Cells

(Low Carbon H2)

Battery Electric

(Low Carbon

Electricity) Plug-in Hybrid

(Low Carbon

Electricity)

2nd & 3rd

Generation

Biofuels

Natural

Gas/Biogas

There are many technical options to reduce fuel consumption &

CO2 emissions all have challenges no clear winners

Low carbon vehicles achieved through improved efficiency and/or low carbon fuels:

Low Carbon Vehicle

Conventional Vehicle

Source: Ricardo analysis

Reduce Carbon in Fuel

Improved Vehicle Energy Efficiency

Technology Options for Low Carbon Vehicles


Boosting & downsizing

Turbocharging

Supercharging

Low speed torque

enhancements

Friction reduction

Advanced thermal

systems

Stop/Start & low cost

Micro Hybrid technology

Niche Hybrid, PHEVs &

Electric Vehicles

Weight reduction (5-10%)

Extreme downsizing with

2 & 3 cylinder engines

Combined turbo/

supercharging systems

Advanced 48 volt micro

hybrid systems dominate

PHEVs in premium &

performance products

EVs for city vehicles

Significant weight

reduction

High Efficiency Lean

Stratified Gasoline

Advanced low carbon

fuel formulations

Plug-in/Hybrid electric

systems dominate

Very high specific

power ICEs

50% lower weight

Range of application

specific low carbon fuels

Exhaust & Coolant

energy recovery

Advanced

thermodynamic Cycles

Split Cycle?

Heat Pumps?

Source: Ricardo Technology Roadmaps, Ricardo Analysis

Technology Roadmap

SHORT TERM: ~2015 MEDIUM TERM: ~2025 LONG TERM: ~2050

Advanced combustion engines and electrification of the

powertrain are key to the future of light duty vehicles

Increasing Importance

of Electrification


Hybrids offer more opportunities for improvement, but even

modestly sized systems carry large cost penalties

2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 500%

Percentage Cost Increase Relative to 2009 Gasoline Engine

% I

mp

rove

men

t in

CO

2

Gasoline

Full Hybrids

Diesel

Full Hybrids

Diesel

Mild Hybrids

Micro Hybrid

Boosted Gasoline

Gasoline

Mild Hybrids

Diesel

EU 5 EU 6

Benchmark Passenger Car: CO2 Cost Benefit for Powertrain Technologies

Downsized

Diesel

Source: Ricardo Analysis. NEDC = New European Drive Cycle

Technology Cost Impact


2025 target for 70 ft2 Light-Duty Truck is 264 g CO2/mi (34.4 mpg)

Assumes no off-cycle credits are applied

All other parameters are at 100% of nominal values

Off-cycle credits will be needed to meet the targets for this vehicle class

Several advanced vehicle configurations are capable of similar

GHG emissions, so the challenge is cost-effectiveness

Baseline with SI engine 6000 100% 100% 489 8.2

6000 100% 100% 366 8.1

5300 95% 95% 336 8.2

5100 90% 90% 319 7.2

4200 80% 80% 277 6.5

6000 100% 100% 340 8.5

5100 90% 90% 299 7.4

4200 80% 80% 260 6.4

6000 100% 100% 361 8.0

5100 90% 90% 326 7.2

4200 80% 80% 293 6.4

6000 100% 100% 298 7.8

5100 90% 90% 261 6.9

4200 80% 80% 226 6.1

Stoich DI Turbo + 8-spd AT

EGR DI Turbo + 8-spd DCT

Atkinson (CPS) P2 Hybrid

Advanced Diesel + 8-spd AT

0-60 mph

Accel time (s)

g CO2/mi

US CombLight-Duty Truck Configuration

Aero.

Drag

Vehicle

Mass (lb)

Rolling

Resist.

Technology Package Scenarios


Turbocharged Spray Guided Direct Injection Gasoline

Combustion has shown better fuel economy than diesel

Vehicle simulation shows that Lean Boosted system delivers a 40% improvement in

fuel consumption over a conventional NA gasoline engine of similar performance

Vehicle : D-segment sedan

Engine : 2.0 I4 T-SGDI dVVT

Transmission : 8AT

IWC : 1810kg

NEDC FE : 156 g/km CO2


Engine : 3.0 V6 PFI dVVT

Transmission : 8AT

IWC : 1810kg



Engine : 2.0L TC GDI dVVT

Transmission : 8AT

IWC : 1810kg


Spray Guided Lean Boosted System

offers lower fuel consumption than Diesel 20% Benefit

Technology Demonstrators from Ricardo Research


HyBoost Vehicle offers similar performance to current 2litre N/A

variant but fuel economy approaching best in class hybrids

Electric supercharger for transient low speed torque

Downsized, Direct Injection Turbocharged engine

Electric turbo-compound unit*

Belt starter generator (BSG)

12+X energy storage & controller

+ - Conventional turbocharger

* Not fitted to vehicle

Starting

BSG starts the engine using 12+X volts

Acceleration

E-Charger mitigates turbo-lag by drawing

stored electrical power at 12+X volts only

used for transients/acceleration

Torque assist from BSG for pull away

Deceleration

BSG generates max power for storage and

to serve electrical loads

Base Vehicle 2.0 litre N/A 169g/km

50% downsized 1 litre Engine 140 hp -30%

Revised gearing via Torque assist -6%

6kW Energy Recovery -5%

Stop/Start -3%

HyBoost vehicle emissions 97 g/km

24 km/litre

CO2 Emissions Reduction:

Technology Demonstrators from Ricardo Research


About Ricardo

Introduction

Roadmaps

Conclusions

Outline


Future regulatory requirements require substantial reductions in fuel economy,

GHG and criteria pollutants. However, lower carbon options must continue to be

affordable and meet the needs of the customer

There are many technology options available to reduce carbon emissions. At

present, there are no clear winners and a combination of technologies are likely

to be needed

Through MY2025, internal combustion engines will be prevalent in light-duty

vehicles

Advanced SI engines will predominate in US

Electrification of vehicles will continue

There are opportunities for disruption

Batteries: Lower cost or higher energy storage capacity

Fuel cells: Lower cost, better durability, and hydrogen storage

Conclusions

Multiple pathways are possible to reach the same goal of a

Low Carbon Vehicle


Please contact us with your follow-up questions

www.ricardo.com

Direct Dial: +1 734 394 3951

Reception: +1 734 397 6666

Fax: +1 734 397 6677

Mobile: +1 734 272 6688

john.kasab @ ricardo.com

John J. Kasab, Ph.D., P.E. Chief Engineer, Chemical Technology

Ricardo US Inc. Detroit Technical Campus

40000 Ricardo Drive

Van Buren Township

MI 48111, USA

www.ricardo.com

Direct Dial: +1 734 394 4163

Reception: +1 734 397 6666

Fax: +1 734 397 6677

Mobile: +1 734 353 2034

richard.crossley @ ricardo.com

Richard B. Crossley Chief Engineer, Engines

Ricardo US Inc. Detroit Technical Campus

40000 Ricardo Drive

Van Buren Township

MI 48111, USA


Technical Input to EPA for 20172025 Light Duty Vehicle

Greenhouse Gas Rule

Approach

Ricardo and EPA team identified potential future

technology packages and estimated their effects

on fuel consumption

Created new vehicle classes, implemented

hybrid powertrains and controls (P2 and

Powersplit) and incorporated new technology

packages to define a broad design space

Ricardo's complex systems modeling approach

used to examine the extensive design space

Situation and Objectives

EPA wanted rigorous technical input to support

Rule Making

Analysis estimates greenhouse gas emissions

of vehicles based on future technology

packages and combinations thereof

Rely on Ricardos global technical expertise to

develop new methodology to quantify the

effectiveness of several advanced technologies

in a complex space defined by a large number

of vehicle parameters

Improved accuracy of modeling tools supporting

rule making

Broad design space allows examination of

several combinations of technologies, and their

synergistic effects

Data visualization tool facilitates exploration of

the design space

Fully documented and peer-reviewed approach

and results for use in rule by EPA

Results and benefits

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Co

mb

ine

d F

TP

-HW

FE

T (

mp

g)

Engine Displacement (L)

Baseline

Stoich DIT+8AT

Diesel+DCT


Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential for European Light Duty

Vehicles in 20202025 for ICCT

Approach

Ricardo and ICCT team identified additional

future technology packages and estimated their

effects on fuel consumption

Implemented NEDC and JC08 drive cycles, and

adapted the Data Visualization Tool and results

for EU

Ricardo's complex systems modeling approach

used to examine the extensive design space

Situation and Objectives

ICCT wanted to extend Ricardo's work for EPA

to the European Union

Analysis estimates greenhouse gas emissions

of vehicles based on future technology

packages and combinations thereof

Rely on Ricardos global technical expertise and

complex systems methodology to quantify the

effectiveness of several advanced technologies

in a complex space defined by a large number

of vehicle parameters

Improved accuracy of modeling tools to evaluate

future vehicle performance and GHG emissions

Broad design space allows examination of

several combinations of technologies, and their

synergistic effects

Data Visualization Tool facilitates exploration of

the design space

Final report and DVT are available from

http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-

potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025

Results and benefits

Baseline with SI engine 100% 100% 100% 165

Baseline with Diesel engine 100% 100% 100% 124

100% 100% 100% 107

85% 90% 90% 93

70% 80% 80% 80

100% 100% 100% 104

85% 90% 90% 93

70% 80% 80% 83

100% 100% 100% 96

85% 90% 90% 86

70% 80% 80% 77

100% 100% 100% 81

85% 90% 90% 71

70% 80% 80% 62

g CO2/km

on NEDCC Class Vehicle Configuration

Aero.

Drag

Vehicle

Mass

Rolling

Resist.

Stoich DI Turbo + 8-spd DCT

Adv EU Diesel + 8-spd DCT

Atkinson (CPS) P2 Hybrid

Atkinson (CPS) Powersplit Hybrid

Baseline

SDIT & DCTP2 (Atk. CPS)Powersplit (Atk.DVA)

Slower than

baseline

http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025http://www.theicct.org/ghg-emission-reduction-potential-ldv-technologies-eu-2020-2025


References

Document Links to Ricardo Reports for US EPA:

2011 Ricardo Study

Ricardo Computer Simulation of Light-Duty Vehicle Technologies for

Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in the 2020-2025 Timeframe:

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r11020.pdf

Response to Peer Review:

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420r11021.pdf

Ricardo Response Surface Model Tool:

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/cs-tool-2012.zip

2008 Ricardo Study

Report: A Study of Potential Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Reducing

Vehicle Technologies:

http://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPURL.cgi?Dockey=P1000SEH.txt

Response to Peer Review:

http://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPURL.cgi?Dockey=P1001UPA.txt

technology roadmap for light-duty vehicle cafe & ghg … presentations/day 1... · technology...

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