technology & investments responses to market and …...2012/10/01 · 1. technology &...

1

Technology & investments responses to market and regulatory developments

Baudouin KelecomJRC Conference 1st October

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

PercentGlobal Percent Mix of Fuels

1800 1900 20001850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

HydroNuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

2040

3

Regional Energy Trends Evolve

PercentBy Region

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

Other AP

Southeast Asia

India

China

Russia/Caspian

Europe

North America

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

44

0

3

6

9

12

15

1990 2015 20400

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 2015 2040

~500 Quads

Quadrillion BTUsDemand

What demand would be without efficiency gains

MBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDP

-0.9%

-1.9%

Energy per GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDPMBTU / 2005$ GDPEnergy per GDP

Constant 2010 Level

DemandQuadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

0.9%

Global Efficiency Minimizes Demand Growth


55

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2015 20400

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2015 2040

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

k TWhBy Sector

Transportation

Industrial

Residential/Commercial

Quadrillion BTUsFuel Into Electricity Generation

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

Wind

Renewables


66

0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind

OffshoreWind

Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Solar

$0/ton CO2

2011 Eurocents/KWh

Economic Choices for Europe ElectricityBaseload, Startup 2030

Large PV, Thermal

Residential PV

*1 Euro = 1.4 USD


77

0

5

10

15

20

Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind

OffshoreWind

Coal-CCS Gas-CCS Solar

$60/ton CO2

2011 Eurocents/KWh

Economic Choices for Europe ElectricityBaseload, Startup 2030

Large PV, Thermal

Residential PV

*1 Euro = 1.4 USD*Wind and solar exclude costs for backup capacity and additional transmission


88

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Commercial Transport drives WW Demand Growth

PersonalMBDOE

CommercialMBDOE

Light Duty Vehicles

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty Vehicles


9

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 20400

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

MBDOEDemand Changes

Distance per Vehicle

Mandated

Europe Personal Transportation Demand Falls

Fleet

Fuel Economy

Other

TransportationMBDOE

Light Duty

Aviation

Heavy Duty

Marine

Rail


10

Dieselisation of EU demand

Evolution of the middle distillate / gasoline demand ratio for refined products only

Source: CONCAWE

11

Biodiesel GHG’s* may be less positive than Ethanol

Source: IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) study for the EU

* GHG’s Green houses Gases** LUC Land Use Change

**

1212

Integrated set of solutions

mitigateemissions

expandsupply

increaseefficiency

TechnologyTechnology

1313

Expand supply: upstream technology

• Bitumen recovery • Shale Oil Recovery• Floating production storage,offloading vessel (FPSO)

• 4D Imaging• Directional drilling• Rapid Reservoir

Performance Prediction

• Unlocking Tight & Shale Gas• Large LNG Production• Advanced Hydrocarbon

Detection (R3MSM)

opportunities evaluation success

Breakthrough technologies help meet rising global energy demand and minimize environmental footprint

1414

Increase efficiency well to tank

crude recovery

crude transportation

crude refining to products

product storage & transportation

retail site

fuel vehicle

fuel use 85% GHGproduction of fuel 15% GHG

Cogeneration

Gasifier

X to Liquids

Carbon Sequestration

1515

Historical Overview Antwerp • 1953 Start-up of the Antwerp Refinery • 1956 Expansion • 1971 Commissioning of Rotterdam-Antwerp crude pipeline

Installation of Ethylene Terminal• 1976 Start-up of Modernized Refinery, • 1981 Major investment for Energy Conservation• 1984 Expansion of Ethylene Terminal • 1985 Revamp FCCU for higher conversion• 1991 Start-up Alkylation and Higher Olefins Plant• 1993 Start-up 45 MW Cogen unit: co-investment with Electrabel• 1997 Installation of VRU units• 2006 Capacity expansion to• 2008 Start-up new 130 MW Cogen• 2011 Start-up Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Unit

1616

New Cogen in 2009

130 MW of electricity= needs of 300,000 homes= production of 230 wind turbines

Steam and process heating

CO2 emissions reduced by 200,000 tonnes/yr= removing 90,000 cars from the roads

1717

New Diesel Desulphurization Unit in 2011

Produces ultra low sulphur diesel• The annual production of this lower

sulphur diesel in Antwerp will be equal to the annual consumption of 2 million diesel cars

1 million workhours in construction phase

Modular built

1818

Increase efficiency tank to wheel

On board reforming

Lithium battery films

crude recovery

crude transportation

crude refining to products

product storage & transportation

fuel vehicle

fuel use 85% GHGproduction of fuel 15% GHG

Advanced Biofuels

retail site

Combustion fundamentals

19

Reproduction permitted with due acknowledgement

Fuels for Advanced Combustion

Motivation for CONCAWE’s advanced combustion studies1. Understand fuel needs of future advanced combustion engines2. Explore whether efficient gasoline-fuelled engines could help correct the

European diesel/gasoline imbalance

Extensive test programme completed on bench engine and demo vehicle Diesel single-cylinder engine optimised for low temperature combustionEngine equipped with CLCC quite tolerant of a wide range of fuelsConclusion: a special fuel is NOT a requirement for advanced combustion diesel engines

Study results have been extensively published through CONCAWE Reports and technical papers

CONCAWE Reports and PublicationsPart 1: Impact of engine on HCCI combustion (Rpt 9/10 & SAE 2008-01-2405)Part 2: Impact of fuels on HCCI combustion (Rpt 10/10 & SAE 2008-01-2404)Part 3: Advanced combustion in a demonstrator vehicle

Results from the demo vehicle study (Part 3) presented at TAE Esslingen (01/2011) and AEC-MOU Working Group on HCCI (09/2010 and 09/2011)

20


Demo Vehicle Study: Six Fuels Selected

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Tota

l Aro

mat

ics

(% m

/m)

Derived Cetane Number (DCN)

DieselKeroseneGasoline-likeDieselineNaphtha

See SAE 2008-01-2404 and -2405 for bench engine results on other fuels

RefineryNaphtha 1

EN590BaselineDiesel

PRF25

Kerosene

RefineryNaphtha 2

‘Dieseline’

21


Demo Vehicle: Fuels for Advanced Combustion

Fuel flexibility achieved through Closed Loop Combustion Control of injection timing and sophisticated engine control system

Vehicle was able to operate on diesel and other fuels without recalibrationEfficiency matched or exceeded current diesel capabilityEuro 6 NOx limit could be met engine-out without catalyst for four fuels PM varied between fuels but was treatable by DPFA good oxycat would be needed to reduce HC and CO emissions

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20

CO

2 [g

/km

]

NOx [g/km]

Baseline Diesel1

Kerosene

PRF 25

'Dieseline1'

Refinery Naphtha 1

Refinery Naphtha 2

145g CO2/km target

Euro 6 NOxLimit

159g CO2/km forreference 2.2L vehicle

CO2 and NOx emissions over the NEDC measured on FEV’s advanced combustion vehicle without NOx aftertreatment

Duplicate tests on same fuel are shown

Diesel engine-based vehicle runs on a wide range of fuels, but higher octane gasoline presented problems achieving NOx and CO2 targets

22

Implications summaryGlobal energy demand will increase by 30%Energy savings through 2040 will be 3 times the projected energy growth Europe energy consumption in transport will be essentially flatWorld fuels and especially European fuels are moving towards DieselAn engine with diesel-like efficiency operating on gasoline-range fuel would offer substantive WTW (Well to Wheel) benefits All economic energy sources should be pursued towards 2040

Science, WTW cost/benefit analyses should inform legislative initiativesWhen countries legislate GHG, economy-wide, predictable GHG costs shape business plans and investmentsMarket prices including CO2 costs allocate resources most efficiently to help ensure reliable, affordable energy

23

Annexes

24

CO2 Abatement Economic in Europe

Europe Cost of CO2 Avoidance

Source: JEC (2007), CARB (March 2009), EIA AEO

-100

0

100

200

300

400

€/Ton

Existing Gas* Gas Nuclear

Wind

Coal + CCS

*Higher utilization of existing gas vs. existing coal

Gas + CCS

vs. New Coal

Solar PV

Solar Thermal

-100

0

100

200

300

400

€/TonEurope Cost of CO2 Avoidance

Existing Gas* Gas Nuclear

Wind

Coal + CCS

Conventional Engine Improvements

*Higher utilization of existing gas vs. existing coal

Full Hybrids

2nd Gen Ethanol

1st Gen Ethanol

PHVsFuel Cells

Start-Stop Hybrids

Gas + CCS

CNG

Solar PV

Solar Thermal

vs. Existing Light Duty Vehicles

vs. New Coal

2525

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 20400

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 20400

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

k TWh

Gas

NuclearCoal

Wind

Other Renewables

Gas w/ CCS

Coal w/ CCS

Electricity Supply Varies Globally

United Statesk TWh

China

Oil

k TWhEurope

* Generation by Type


2626

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases

BCFDProduction by Type

UnconventionalConventional

BCFDDemand by Region

North America

Middle East

AP Non OECD

Rest of OECD

Russia/Caspian

Rest of Non OECD


27


Demo Vehicle Study: Objectives and Fuel Properties

Objectives:Meet Euro 6+ NOx emissions levels by using high levels of cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) and without using additional NOx aftertreatment

Diesel Demonstrator Vehicle over the regulatory New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)Similar hardware to that used in the single-cylinder engine studyCO2 and regulated emissions, with focus on engine-out NOx & PM

Achieving study objective required more air/fuel pre-mixing and lower combustion temperatures

Study the impact of fuel properties on advanced diesel combustion performance1, including the effects of:

Ignition Quality: by varying Derived Cetane Number (DCN)Volatility: by testing diesel, kerosene, & naphtha fuelsComposition: by varying the Total Aromatics Content

1) Source: CONCAWE Report 4/08 (2008)

28


Demo Vehicle: FEV’s High Efficiency Combustion System

Properties Demonstrator VehicleStroke 88.3 mm

Bore Diameter 75 mmSwept Volume 1560 cm³

Compression Ratio 15Valves per Cylinder 4

Valve Lift 8 mmCylinder Peak Pressure 200 bar

Fuel Injection System Bosch PiezoCommon Rail System

Maximum Injection Pressure 2000 barNozzle 8 x 153°

Nozzle Hole Diameter 109 µmHydraulic Flow Rate 310 cm³ / 30 seconds

Charge Air Cooling Level Valeo Euro 6 System

Combustion ControlConstant Center of Combustion

for all fuels by means ofClosed Loop Combustion Control

Glow Plug BERU Pressure Sensor Glow PlugEGR System High Pressure & Low Pressure Loops

Aftertreatment Diesel Particulate Filter & OxycatEmission Level Euro 6 Vehicle Weight 1590 kg

29


How to Fuel the Advanced Combustion Vehicle?

Both options would require a new fuel grade and vehicle modifications

Blending Pumpat Service Station?

Diesel or Gasoline Fuelor a ‘Dieseline’ Blend

Gasoline & DieselDelivered to Station

RefinerySeparate Pump

at Service Station?

Low Cetane Fuel:Fossil or BTL Naphtha

New ProductDelivered to Station

Blending Pumpat Service Station?

Diesel or Gasoline Fuelor a ‘Dieseline’ Blend

Gasoline & DieselDelivered to Station

RefinerySeparate Pump

at Service Station?

Low Cetane Fuel:Fossil or BTL Naphtha

New ProductDelivered to Station

technology & investments responses to market and …...2012/10/01 · 1. technology &...

Documents