Technology futures report 2021Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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IntroductionThe COVID-19 crisis is shining a klieg light on the immense challenge leaders face in planning for the future amid extreme uncertainty. In parallel, new technologies of the fourth industrial revolution, such as artificial intelligence (AI), cloud, and robotics, are changing the way we live, learn, and do business at a rate unprecedented in human history. These historic changes, considered within the increasingly urgent context of shifting political landscapes and environmental instability, suggest that now, more than ever, leaders need tools that can help them understand the future beyond the near term and then plan accordingly.

With this in mind, the World Economic Forum collaborated with Deloitte to produce a first-of-its-kind report that equips today’s readers with the insights and foresight critical to tomorrow’s leaders. Taking a research-driven approach, the full report opens with a business case for futurism as a pragmatic, strategic discipline and moves on to a recognition that the buzzword-laden history of emerging technology innovation in fact follows enduring trajectories that we can use to fashion a practical taxonomy for technology change. The report proceeds to project historical technology and socioeconomic trends

through a newly introduced foresight model to showcase the spectrum of possible (and probable) futures facing tomorrow’s organizations. We take things a step further by bringing the possibilities and personalities of these possible futures to life through a series of speculative fiction short stories. Finally, we converge on calls to action intended to help leaders understand how to best plot a path toward their preferred tomorrow.

This executive summary focuses primarily on two of the report’s key contributions:

First: LEnS – A novel framework for foresightNewly introduced in this report, the LEnS (longitudinal emergence scatterplot) framework accepts historical technological and socioeconomic trend lines and projects plausible futures based on the aggregation and extrapolation of the data at hand. The framework further accounts for domain-specific filters, allowing leaders to focus on specific issues most relevant to their foresight exercise. This report specifically considers the future(s) of education, information, locality, and economy.

Second: A taxonomy for technology changeFrom the first computer design in the early 19th century to the present day, three enduring “eternities” have characterized the trajectory of information technology emergence: interaction, computation, and information. We propose three recommendations for leaders in light of technology’s continued convergence along these three paths.

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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LEnS–A novel framework for foresightIn the diagrams below, we employ three discrete tools (historical trend lines, forward-facing projections, and domain-specific filters) to compose what we call a longitudinal emergence scatterplot (LEnS). As seen throughout the report, this framework provides stakeholders with a clear and compelling rubric for thinking about where domain-specific futures are headed.

For the purposes of the report, we’ve created four broadly applicable LEnSes that, taken together, demonstrate the breadth of applicability inherent in the framework: information, locality, economy, and education. It is not our intention to establish a MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) series of domains, but rather to illustrate how individual filters provide focus and multiple filters, depth. These LEnSes project and detail a few relatively noncontroversial

probabilities, along with a handful of oppositional possibilities.

The information LEnSData lies at the heart of the information layer.1 Today, with help from next-generation networks that reduce latency and cloud computing that expands processing and storage capabilities, data drives just about everything. Data volumes are exploding. Not only is the rate of data generated per individual increasing, but so is the rate at which we share information.2

Today, lawmakers, organizations, ethicists, and many others worldwide are trying to envision data’s future. Will information remain centralized, as it largely is today? Or will we shift toward a distributed and open model of data distribution and sharing?

Distributed

Centralized

Now NextKnown

Decentralizeddata ownership

Primacy ofdata privacy

On-preminfrastructure

IoT sensorcosts

Print-basedcommunication Information

costs

Always-onconnectivity Data

passports

Cybersecurityas a cornerstone

Institutionaldata ownership

Explainable AI

Open-source

Compute errors

Credibility of information

Digital social interactions

Broadcast media

Internet of Things

Automation

Data volumeAI/ML

AR/VR

Ubiquitous connectivity

Computecosts

Computepower

In-personinteractions Government rules

and regulations

Trust ininstitutions

Data leaks

Big dataVirtual work

Mobile apps

Security threats

BlockchainCloud/edgecomputing

Social mediain�uencers

Analytics as a service

Figure 1. Information LEnS (longitudinal emergence scatterplot)

Possible

Possible

Exponential –

Exponential +

Linear –

Linear +

ProbableCyclical

Legacy black-boxsolutions

Closed-sourceand proprietary

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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The locality LEnSOver the years, the idea of locality has evolved from mere physical spaces to include virtual ones as well. Thus, we have come to define locality as the physical spaces and virtual platforms where individuals live, work, connect, and learn.

Innovation and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic have

accelerated shifts in how human beings experience locality.3 Against this backdrop, we see two potential extremes in the future of locality. Shown in the figure below, the first (a virtual extreme) represents an ongoing technological shift that favors digital and virtual interaction over the physical. The second, a physical extreme, places value on physical experiences and an underlying social discomfort with entirely virtual experiences.

Internet of Things

Refugee migration

Ubiquitous connectivity

Virtual relationships

Companion bots

Health ofenvironment

Corporatecampuses

Virtual workstigma

Urban populationgrowth rate

Smart cities

Space exploration

IT costs

PrivacyCybersecurity

A�ordable city housing

Value on “owning things”

The gig economy

Metaverseexperiences

Lifestyle andcommunity values

At-homeservices

Democratization of entertainment

Augmenting the world (spatial tech)

Virtual experiences(education and entertainment)

Physical consumption(food, drink, sex)

Traditional romantic courtship

Disillusionmentwith virtual

Only “one true”reality

Digital assets

Biosecurity

Urbanization

E-sports

Barriers to reskilling

Internationalsta�ng

Value on“experiences”

E-commerce/web-enabled purchasing

Virtualin�uencers Online

education

Work-life integration

AR/VR/MR technology

Globalpopulation

Onlinecommunities

Virtual

Physical

Figure 2. Locality LEnS (longitudinal emergence scatterplot)

Now NextKnown

Possible

Possible

Exponential –

Exponential +

Linear –

ProbableCyclical

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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The economy LEnSThe economy LEnS looks at finite raw materials and their development into higher-order economic outputs. Resources (e.g., energy, infrastructure, clean water, etc.) are necessary for humans to survive and thrive. Economy covers the value-added creations developed from those materials (e.g., jobs, trade, production, etc.).

In a world where technological change is constantly

disrupting the availability and usefulness of resources, the ways in which we embrace technology innovation can often matter more than the point technologies themselves. Will our world be characterized by abundance, with resource availability and economic growth rising along with the tide of our global technological prowess? Or will we find ourselves in a world of scarcity, where global inequality and tribalism result from a dearth of access to resources?

Computecosts

Now NextKnown

Renewablesboom

Clean energygrowth

Energy crises and shortages

Information technology costs

Child mortalityrates

Inaccessibility ofclean drinking water

Supremacy of �at money

Software (continues) eating the world

Universal basic income normalization

Four-day work week

The rising tide

Primacy of o�ces

Malnutrition

Careers

Gigs, not careers

The New Gilded Age

Choose where you work

Neo-autarchies

The liquid workforce

Unfettered global trade

Humans working with AI

Precision medicine goes mainstream

Humans working against AI

Massunemployment

Mandatedlocal trade

Bandwidth

Connecteddevices

Arti�cialintelligence

Cryptocurrencyadoption

Trust ininstitutions

Traditional 9-to-5s

Global extreme poverty

Fertility rates

Dependence on science

Internationaltrade agreements

Globaltemperature

Hydrocarbon usage Electric vehicleadoption

Anxiety anddepression

Batterystorage

Universal basicincome pilots

Global health carespending

Real estatecosts

Desire for truthEconomic cycles

Life expectancy

Taxes

Gigs

Abundance

Scarcity

Figure 3. Economy LEnS (longitudinal emergence scatterplot)

Possible

Possible

Exponential –

Exponential +

Linear –

Linear +

ProbableCyclical

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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The education LEnSMalcolm X famously mused that “education is the passport to the future.”4 We broadly define our “passport to the future,” education, as the way individuals learn and how we teach the skills these individuals need to build successful careers.

Advanced modes of information access are driving dramatic shifts in the ways people learn and institutions

teach, revealing two plausible future outcomes. In one, “institutional credentials”: the kind of structured education traditionally offered by school systems and universities will remain in place, but with new tools and teaching methods. In another, more disruptive scenario, traditional education, with its emphasis on formal accreditations, will give way to a more meritocratic system of “self-taught skills” that prizes demonstrable competency, real-life problems solved, or measurable value created.

Institutional credentials

Self-taught skills

Now NextKnown

Increased number of institutions

AI teacher’s assistant

Dominance of diplomas

Centralized learning

Decentralized learning

Problem-driven education

Superiorityof skills

Certi�cations

Apprenticeships

Rise of nanodegrees

Education meritocracy

Studentattention span

Physicalclassrooms

Population withno education

Rotememorization

Information(and access)

Focus on group learning

Higher education costs

Online-nativeinstitutions

Collegedegrees

Microschools

Digital content

Early childhood education

Social-emotional learning

HomeschoolingMOOCs

Textbooks

Publisher pro�ts

Physical content

Income-sharing agreements

Virtual learning tools

Lifelong learning

AR/VR/MR learning

Education as priority

Internationalexchange

Competency-based education

Demand for STEM

MBA applicants

Focus on liberal arts

Figure 4. Education LEnS (longitudinal emergence scatterplot)

Possible

Possible

Exponential –

Exponential +

Linear –

Linear +

ProbableCyclicalGig economy

and gig learning

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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A taxonomy of technology changeTranscendentalist author Henry David Thoreau famously left the hustle and bustle of urban civilization to live alone in Walden Woods. His was an effort not just to slow down, but to “ladder up” above ephemera and glimpse the enduring; to, as he said, “Read not the Times,” but rather “Read the Eternities.”5

By way of similar abstraction, we can ladder up to see that the entire history of information technology, from Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace’s design for the first general-purpose computer in 1821 to the current

day, has been a surprisingly clear story of progress along three enduring layers: interaction, information, and computation.

We would further assert that the entire future of information technology will continue to be a story of progress along these same three enduring layers. A Walden-inspired long view lets us slow things down and see the forest for the trees. Consider the diagram below, which elevates technology emergence from “blizzard of buzzwords” to boardroom relevance:

Our full report explores these discrete technology evolutions in detail, but the executive summation is as follows:

Interaction, the ways we interface with machines, has been, and will continue to be, a story of increasing simplicity. The technologies get more complex, but the user experience gets simpler and, with that, ubiquitous. As such, leaders should plan for a future where virtually all interactions are digitally mediated and, in turn, ensure that those without digital affordances are not left behind.

Similarly, machines’ facility with information has been, and will continue to be, a story of increasing intelligence. From arithmetic to analytics to AI, and on to empathic, charismatic, and even spiritual machines, leaders must ensure that we develop machine intelligences that embody our explicitly stated, shared financial, social, and ethical values—teaching them to do as we say, not necessarily as we’ve done.

Finally, computation has been marked by our knack for creating abundance whenever scarcity threatens. As transistor miniaturization threatened Moore’s

Interaction Simplicity

Computation Abundance

Information Intelligence

Reader

Mill

Store

Mobile devices

Cloud architectures

Predictive analytics

Punched cards

Mainframe

Arithmetic calculation

Virtual reality

Distributedplatforms

Cognitiveautomation

Command- line

Minicomputer

Relational databases

Ambient experiences

Spatial web

Affective AI

Graphical user interface

(GUI)

Clientserver

Descriptiveanalytics

Brain- computer interfaces

Quantumcomputing

General AI

Eternities EndgamesBabbage’s

designEarly 21st century

First digital computer

2021: Today

Mid 20th century

Horizon next

Late 20th century

Furthest stars

t–10 t+10 t+n t=∞t–25t–50t–75t–175Time (years) t

Table 1. A taxonomy of technology change: From eternities to endgames

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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Law, networking technologies, the cloud, and now distributed computing technologies have brought about new bounties. The puzzles we face may be getting increasingly harder, but we are getting exponentially smarter. Leaders should therefore continue allocating

time, mindshare, and money for moonshots—those projects that might not help us compete today, but that, given enough inspiration and perspiration, help us create tomorrow.

You can read the full report on the World Economic Forum website.

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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Endnotes

1. Computer Hope, “What Is Data?” March 6, 2020, https://www.computerhope.com/jargon/d/data.htm.

2. Tuan Nguyen, “What Is the World’s Data Storage Capacity?” ZDNet, February 11, 2011, https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-the-worlds-data-storage-capacity.

3. Janine Berg et al., “Working from Home: Estimating the Worldwide Potential,” VOX CEPR Policy Portal, May 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/working-home-estimating-worldwide-potential.

4. Blackpast, “(1964) Malcolm X’s Speech at the Founding Rally of the Organization of Afro-American Unity,” October 15, 2015, https://www.blackpast.org/african-american-history/speeches-african-american-history/1964-malcolm-x-s-speech-founding-rally-organization-afro-american-unity.

5. Henry David Thoreau (1817–1862), Life Without Principle, London, Arthur C. Fifield (1905, print).

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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Contacts

Mike BechtelManaging Director and Chief Futurist, Deloitte US mibechtel@deloitte.com

Amy GolemDeloitte USamgolem@deloitte.com

Raquel BuscainoDeloitte USrbuscaino@deloitte.com

Lucas ErbDeloitte USlerb@deloitte.com

Technology futures report 2021 | Projecting the possible. Navigating what’s next.

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