technology assessment under stakeholder perspectives
DESCRIPTION
The NEEDS Integrated Project (Where does RS2b fit in?) Integration 1c 1b Externalities in energy extraction & transport New & improved methods to estimate external costs 1d 3b Communicate & Disseminate Extend geographic coverage 3a 2a LCA/costs of new technologies Transfer & general-ization Model internalization strategies & scenario building 1a Stakeholder assess-ment & acceptance Energy technology roadmap & forecast 2b NEEDS: New Energy Externalities Developments for SustainabilityTRANSCRIPT
Technology Assessment under Stakeholder Perspectives
SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1] [ Sustainable Energy Systems]
Technology Assessment under Stakeholder Perspectives Stefan
Hirschberg, Paul Scherrer Institut Brussels, 16 February 2009 The
NEEDS Integrated Project (Where does RS2b fit in?)
Integration 1c 1b Externalities in energy extraction &
transport New & improved methods to estimate external costs 1d
3b Communicate & Disseminate Extend geographic coverage 3a 2a
LCA/costs of new technologies Transfer & general-ization Model
internalization strategies & scenario building 1a Stakeholder
assess-ment & acceptance Energy technology roadmap &
forecast 2b NEEDS: New Energy Externalities Developments for
Sustainability General Objectives of Stream 2b
To broaden the basis for decision support by examining the
robustness of results under various stakeholder perspectives To
explore stakeholder perspectives on external costs Combines
knowledge (technology characteristics) generated internally and
from other streams with stakeholder preferences Contributors and
Responsibilities
WP WORK PACKAGE TITLE LEADERS 1 Survey of criteria and indicators
PSI 2 Establishment of social criteria USTUTT.SOZ 3 Establishment
of full criteria set 4 Extended technology characterisation
CESIRICERA 5 Quantification of economic indicators EDF 6
Quantification of environmental indicators 7 Quantification of risk
indicators 8 Quantification of social indicators 9 MCDA approach
and tool selection IIASA 10 Evaluation and analysis integration 11
Acceptability of monetary valuation methods ARMINES 12
Organisation/management of surveys and communication ISIS/PSI 13
Analysis and elaboration of the results 14 Technical stream
co-ordination Contributors included also NGOs: GLOBE and HELIO
INTERNATIONAL Main Elements, Approaches and Tools
Establishment and evaluation of criteriaand indicators Case study
and surveys with directstakeholder inputs Sustainability assessment
by means ofMulti-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) Comparison with
total costs Case Study Conclusions
Large variation between France, UK and US in the uses of
externality valuation in policy Formal requirements are crucial in
order to consider the full costs and benefits of proposed
regulation There is more extensive use of the monetary valuation of
externalities in transport and water policy than in the energy
sector Main Stakeholder Categories
Each category is further divided into several sub-categories (not
shown) Energy Supplier Energy Consumer Non-Governmental
Organization (NGO) Government Energy or Environmental Agency
Regulator / Government Authority Association (e.g. trade or
industry) Politician Researcher / Academic Consultant Other
Stakeholder Categories & Sub-categories 1/4
Energy Supply (Centralized or Decentralized) Manufacturer
Technology Agency Transmission & Distribution Sectoral
Association Energy Demand Technology Supplier (e.g. Manufacturer of
Appliances Energy Consuming Industry Agriculture Transport Sector
Services Households Stakeholder Categories & Sub-categories
2/4
NGOs International European National Governmental Energy &
Environmental Agencies Regional / Local Regulators / Authorities
Stakeholder Categories & Sub-categories 3/4
Researchers Energy Fossil Renewables Nuclear Demand Systems
Analysis Other Non-Energy Consultants Small or Medium (1 30
employees) Large (> 30 employees) Stakeholder Categories &
Sub-categories 4/4
Associations European National Regional / Local Politicians Left /
Green(Socialist Group, Group of the Greens / European Free
Alliance, Confederal Group of the European United Left) Center /
Liberal(European People's Party and European Democrats, Alliance of
Liberals and Democrats) Right / Conservative
(Independence/Democracy Group, Union for Europe of the Nations
Group) Examples of Difficult but Potentially Important Social
Aspects
Social justice Risk aversion and perception Resilience of the
energy system Conflict potential Theoretically, any externality can
be monetized, but in practice methodologies and valuation are often
controversial. Survey I: Externality Concept, Results and
Uses
In spite of the limitations, there is general acceptance of the
concept of externalities, of the internalisation of external costs
and of most results, but Source: Faberi et al., 2007 Survey I:
Usefulness of Externalities
Statement: External cost assessment provides decision makers with
basic estimates to support their policy decisions. Without such
estimates, the social cost of a wrong choice could be very large
and harmful. Source: Faberi et al., 2007 The Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis (MCDA) problem
Big, complex problems multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria.
Different interests different preferences, no simple optima.
Complexity & cognitive inadequacy can prevent evensingle
decision makers from making consistentrankings. Purpose: aid to
thinking and decision-making (but doesnt give the answer) 7 Steps
Towards MCDA 1 Select alternatives (with stakeholder input)
2 Establish criteria and indicators (with stakeholder input) 3
Quantify the technology- and country-specific indicators 4 Analyse
the MCDA requirements 5 Select the most suitable MCDA method(s) and
tool(s) 6 Test and adapt the selected method(s) and tool(s) 7
Elicit stakeholder preferences, provide feedback Sustainability
Criteria Environment
Source: Hirschberg et al., 2007&2008 Criteria / Indicator
Description Unit ENVIRONMENT Environment related criteria Source:
NEEDS Research Streams 1a & 2b, using Life Cycle Assessment
(LCA) RESOURCES Resource use (non-renewable) Energy Energy resource
use in whole life-cycle Fossil fuels This criterion measures the
total primary energy in the fossil resources used for the
production of 1 kWh of electricity. It includes the total coal,
natural gas and crude oil used for each complete electricity
generation technology chain. MJ/kWh Uranium This criterion
quantifies the primary energy from uranium resources used to
produce 1 kWh of electricity. It includes the total use of uranium
for each complete electricity generation technology chain. Minerals
Mineral resource use in whole life-cycle Metal ore This criterion
quantifies the use of selected scarce metals used to produce 1 kWh
of electricity. The use of all single metals is expressed in
antimony-equivalents, based on the scarcity of their ores relative
to antimony. kg(Sb-eq.)/kWh CLIMATE Potential impacts on the
climate GHG emissions This criterion includes the total for all
greenhouse gases expressed in kg of CO2 equivalent. kg(CO2-eq.)/kWh
ECOSYSTEMS Potential impacts to ecosystems Normal operation
Ecosystem impacts from normal operation Land use This criterion
quantifies the loss of species (flora &fauna) due to the land
used to produce 1 kWh of electricity. The "potentially damaged
fraction" (PDF) of species is multiplied by land area and years.
PDF*m2*a/kWh Ecotoxicity This criterion quantifies the loss of
species (flora &fauna) due to ecotoxic substances released to
air, water and soil to produce 1 kWh of electricity. The
"potentially damaged fraction" (PDF) of species is multiplied by
land area and years. Acidification / Eutrophication This criterion
quantifies the loss of species (flora &fauna) due to
acidification and eutrophication caused from production of 1 kWh of
electricity. The "potentially damaged fraction" (PDF) of species is
multiplied by land area and years. Severe accidents Ecosystem
impacts in the event of severe accidents Hydrocarbons
Quantification of large accidental spills of hydrocarbons (at least
tonnes) which can potentially damage ecosystems. t/kWh Land
contamination This criterion quantifies land contaminated due to
accidents releasing radioactive isotopes. The land area
contaminated is estimated using Probabilistic Safety Analysis
(PSA). Note: only for nuclear electricity generation technology
chain. km2/kWh WASTE Potential impacts due to waste Chemical waste
This criterion quantifies the total mass of special chemical wastes
stored in underground repositories due to the production of 1 kWh
of electricity. It does not reflect the confinement time required
for each repository. kg/kWh Radioactive waste This criterion
quantifies the volume of medium and high level radioactive wastes
stored in underground repositories due to the production of 1 kWh
of electricity. It does not reflect the confinement time required
for the repository. m3/kWh Sustainability Criteria Economy
Source: Hirschberg et al., 2007&2008 Criteria / Indicator
Description Unit ECONOMY Economy related criteria Source: NEEDS
Research Stream 2b contributors for different technologies.
CUSTOMERS Economic effects on customers Generation cost This
criterion gives the average generation cost per kilowatt-hour
(kWh). It includes the capital cost of the plant, (fuel), and
operation and maintenance costs. It is not the end price. /MWh
SOCIETY Economic effects on society Direct jobs This criterion
gives the amount of employment directly related to building and
operating the generating technology, including the direct labour
involved in extracting or harvesting and transporting fuels (when
applicable). Indirect labour is not included. Measured in terms of
person-years/GWh. Person-years/GWh Fuel autonomy Electricity output
may be vulnerable to interruptions in service if imported fuels are
unavailable due to economic or political problems related to energy
resource availability. This measure of vulnerability is based on
expert. Ordinal UTILITY Economic effects on utility company
Financial Financial impacts on utility Financing risk Utility
companies can face a considerable financial risk if the total cost
of a new electricity generating plant is very large compared to the
size of the company. It may be necessary to form partnerships with
other utilities or raise capital through financial markets. Fuel
sensitivity The fraction of fuel cost to overall generation cost
can range from zero (solar PV) to low (nuclear power) to high (gas
turbines). This fraction therefore indicates how sensitive the
generation costs would be to a change in fuel prices. Factor
Construction time Once a utility has started building a plant it is
vulnerable to public opposition, resulting in delays and other
problems. This indicator therefore gives the expected plant
construction time in years. Planning and approval time is not
included. Years Operation Factors related to a utility company's
operation of a technology. Marginal cost Generating companies
dispatch or order their plants into operation according to their
variable cost, starting with the lowest cost base-load plants up to
the highest cost plants at peak load periods. This variable (or
dispatch) cost is the cost to run the plant. cents/kWh Flexibility
Utilities need forecasts of generation they cannot control
(renewable resources like wind and solar), and the necessary
start-up and shut-down times required for the plants they can
control. This indicator combines these two measures of planning
flexibility, based on expert judgment. Availability All
technologies can have plant outages or partial outages (less than
full generation), due to either equipment failures (forced outages)
or due to maintenance (unforced or planned outages). This indicator
tells the fraction of the time that the generating plant is
available to generate power. Sustainability Criteria Social
Source: Hirschberg et al., 2007&2008 Criteria / Indicator
Description Unit SOCIAL Social related criteria.Source: NEEDS RS 2b
survey of social experts. Quantitative risk based on PSI risk
database. SECURITY Social Security Political continuity Secure
supply Market concentration of energy suppliers in each primary
energy sector that could lead to economic or political disruption.
Ordinal scale Waste repository The possibility that storage
facilities will not be available in time to take deliveries of
waste materials from whole life cycle. Adaptability Technical
characteristics of each technology that may make it flexible in
implementing technical progress and innovations. POL.. LEGITIMACY
Political legitimacy Conflict Conflicts that are based on
historical evidence. It is related to the characteristics of energy
systems that trigger conflicts. Participation Requirement for
public, participative decision-making processes, especially for
construction or operating permits. RISK Risk Normal risk Normal
operation risk Source: NEEDS Research Stream 2b for life cycle risk
data Mortality Years of life lost (YOLL) by the entire population
due to normal operation compared to without the technology.
YOLL/kWh Morbidity Disability adjusted life years (DALY) suffered
by the entire population from normal operation compared to no
technology. DALY/kWh Severe accidents Risk from severe Accidents
Source: NEEDS Research Stream 2b for severe accident data Accident
mortality Number of fatalities expected for each kWh of electricity
that occurs in severe accidents with 5 or more deaths per accident.
Fatalities/kWh Max. fatalities Reasonably credible maximum number
of fatalities for a single accident for an electricity generation
technology chain. Fatal./accident Perceived risk Normal operation
Citizens' fear of negative health effects due to normal operation
of the electricity generation technology. Perceived acc. Citizens'
perception of risk characteristics, personal control over it, scale
of potential damage, and their familiarity with the risk. Terrorism
Risk of terrorism Terror-potential Potential for a successful
terrorist attack. Based on its vulnerability, potential damage and
public perception of risk. Terror-effects Potential maximum
consequences of a successful terrorist attack. Specifically for
low-probability high-consequence accidents. Exp. fatalities
Proliferation Potential for misuse of technologies or substances
present in the nuclear electricity generation technology chain.
RESIDENTIAL ENV. Quality of the residential environment Landscape
Overall functional and aesthetic impact on the landscape of the
entire technology and fuel chain. Note: Excludes traffic. Noise The
amount of noise caused by the generation plant, as well as
transport of materials to and from the plant. Survey II Results:
General Information
NEEDS Survey II was running from 9.8% 11.8% 6.2% 7.7% 12.4% 200 400
600 800 1000 1200 France Germany Italy Switzerland Other Invitation
Response Relative response rate 660 persons visited the survey
website Of these 275 participants filled in the questionnaire
completely, representing an overall response rate of 9.7%(The
remaining 385 persons completed the questionnaire only partially
and could not be included in the analysis) Survey II: Stakeholder
Profile
Q5: Main stakeholder categories Researcher/Academia strongly
dominated (61.45%) Only three other categories were between 5 and
10 % Energy Supplier - Government Energy & Environmental Agency
- Consultant Within Researcher/Academia five sub-categories had the
strongest representation: - Energy: Renewables (9.45%) - Energy:
Nuclear (11.64%) - Energy: Systems Analysis (19.27%) - Energy:
Other (6.18%) - Non-Energy (11.27%) Source: Burgherr et al., 2008
Q49: 5 most important indicators to be absolutely INCLUDED
Survey II: Feedback Q49: 5 most important indicators to be
absolutely INCLUDED CATEGORY INDICATOR PARTICIPANTS % PARTICIPANTS
N Environment Global warming potential 67 183 Consumption of fossil
resources 63 174 Economy Average generation cost 44 121 Impacts of
air pollution 29 80 Independence from energy imports 28 78 Social
Mortality due to normal operation 26 72 Impacts of toxic substances
19 51 Survey II: Feedback Q50: 5 least important indicators to be
absolutely EXCLUDED? CATEGORY INDICATOR PARTICIPANTS % PARTICIPANTS
N Social Work qualifications: workforce education 40 111 Share of
the electricity costs in the budget of a social welfare recipient
26 71 Economy Construction time 24 67 Psychometric variables:
personal control, catastrophic potential, perceived equity
familiarity 23 64 Subjective health fears due to normal operation
20 56 Total traffic load 55 Willingness of NGOs and others to act
against the realization of an option 17 47 Source: Burgherr et al.,
2008 Conclusions: Survey II on Selection of Sustainability Criteria
and Indicators
Response rate of 9.7% Highly qualified / educated participants, but
an over-representation of researchers Most participants from CH
followed by DE General acceptance of indicator set Few individual
indicators considered problematic Strong minority (44%) opts for
less criteria; i.e. about 20 Most important indicators: Global
warming potential, Consumption of fossil fuels, Average generation
cost, Impacts of air pollution on ecosystems, Independence from
energy imports, Mortality due to normal operation Some indicator
descriptions were slightly modified 4 indicators from the social
dimension were eliminated givinga final set of 36 Technology Range
NUCLEAR Generation III Generation IV European Pressurised Reactor
(EPR GEN III) European Fast Reactor (EFR- GEN IV) FOSSIL
Centralised Coal Lignite Natural Gas (NG). Decentralised
cogeneration Natural Gas only (NG) Conventional and gasification
-with/without carbon capture (CCS) Post-combustion Oxyfuel Internal
combustion engine (NG) Molten carbonate and solid oxide fuel cells
(NG) BIOMASS - Fuel cells. - Gas turbine. Gasified waste wood to
fuel cells. Gasified cultivated wood and waste straw to gas
turbine. SOLAR Photovoltaics - Centralised and decentralised
Centralised thermal power plant Cells - Crystalline silicon
(ribbon) Thin film (Cadmium Telluride) Concentrating trough
collectors WIND Offshore wind turbine 24MW turbine in deep water
Total of 26 for FR,25 for DE,21 for ITand19 for CH Social: Years of
Life Lost -YOLL (2050)
Nuclear Fossil Renewable 0.0E+00 1.0E-07 2.0E-07 3.0E-07 4.0E-07
5.0E-07 EU Pressurised Reactor EU Fast Reactor Pulverised Coal (PC)
PC & Post comb.CCS PC & Oxyfuel CCS Integrated Gasification
Int. Gasification & CCS Combined Cycle (CC) CC & Post comb.
CCS Internal Comb.