technological pathways to low carbon - die … · technological pathways to low carbon ... review...

TECHNOLOGICAL PATHWAYS TO LOW CARBON

CAN ASIA STILL BE CATEGORIZED AS EMERGING?

A P R I L 7 , 2 0 1 4 , D E U T S C H E S I N S T I T U T F Ü R E N T W I C K L U N G S P O L I T I K

Developed exclusively for

1. Background and motivation2. Comments to country studies, wind3. A different dimension – shipping and

logistics with supply chain focus4. Technological development5. Winning business models6. Conclusion

Agenda ‐

D E P A R T M E N T O F M E C H A N I C A L A N D M A N U F A C T U R I N G E N G I N E E R I N G- S H I P P I N G & L O G I S T I C S

2

Background and motivation

3

250+ encounters since 2010

Global Green Invest

4Source: LogMS conference paper, 2013

Poulsen et.al.

Review of the encounters

Extensive exploratory study in advance of Ph.d.

29582

2010 2011 2012 20134 123 48 120

1,4% 41,7% 16,3% 40,7%

Site visits Conferences32 13 250

10,8% 4,4% 84,7%

Europe Asia Americas217 44 34

73,6% 14,9% 11,5%

Number of encounters

Split of encounters by type

Regional split

Interview meetings

EncountersTotal number of encountersTotal number of trips

5GLOBAL WIND ENERGY SHIPPING AND LOGISTICSAALBORG UNIVERSITY

Source: LogMS conference paper, 2013Poulsen et.al.

Motivation: Market up to 2050


6NOTE: Figures in mega-Watt (MW)Source: BTM part of Navigant and Renewable Energy Solutions

Comments to country studies

7

Very good comparative cases


8

Casestudy country

OEM Supplier Onshore farm Offshore farm

Core technology Deployment

China Goldwind Hui Teng Blades

Jiuquan

India 1. Suzlon2. ReGen Powertech

1. Vankusawde2. Mytrah Kaladonger

NOT YET

Denmark 1. Vestas2. (Envision)

Horns Rev II

Germany 1. Enercon2. Vensys

Alpha Ventus

The papers are rich with many other examples and mini-cases

Source: Lema, Nordensvärd, Urban, Lütkenhorst, Dai, Zhou, Xia, Ding, Xue, Narain, Chaudhary, Krishna, 2014

• Core market data (for example BTM Navigant)

• Other sources (global, regional, national, within the countries)

• Triangulation, data quality, and ”common grounds”

• A lot of development during 2011, 2012, and 2013 (especially offshore wind)

Baseline data sources


9

• Some regional frameworks• National legislation overview• Local content rules• National / community / city layers• Comparative advantage vs advantage

of home market constituencies• Different drivers of each market

Policies and macro


1 0

• Use of case studies• WTG focus with MW as driver• Smaller machines in case materials,

lower MW output• Offshore is now the driver for WTGSo far, Europe has lead

• Will Asia catch up and take lead for next generation machines (>10 MW)?

Technology point of view


1 1

Innovation drivers• Macro and factor

– Policy regime– Home market incl. grid

and transmission system operator

– Subsidies– R+D support– Test facilities– Bid structure– Land mass/coast line– Water depth– Distance to shore

• Company and micro– Market competition– Market awareness– Strong utility/operator/

independent power producer

– Related firms, networks, and clusters

– Project financing– Horizontal and vertical

integration of firms– Competitive strategy– Ownership structure

12Source: Lema, Nordensvärd, Urban, Lütkenhorst, Dai, Zhou,

Xia, Ding, Xue, Narain, Chaudhary, Krishna, 2014

• Upscaling of MW yield• Gear/direct drive• Weather (temperature, slow/fast wind speed)• Project sizes• Repowering• Onshore vs offshore• O&M / quality• Offshore turbines Higher wind speeds Harsher weather Larger sized turbines

Additional wind turbine drivers


1 3Source: Lema, Nordensvärd, Urban, Lütkenhorst, Dai, Zhou, Xia, Ding, Xue, Narain, Chaudhary, Krishna, 2014

Shipping and logistics

14

Shipping and logistics challenges

Source: Upwind – Design limits and solutions for very large wind turbines

1 5

End‐to‐end wind farm life‐cycle

Shipping & logistics

16GLOBAL WIND ENERGY SHIPPING AND LOGISTICSAALBORG UNIVERSITY


Onshore vs. offshore

GLOBAL WIND ENERGY SHIPPING AND LOGISTICSAALBORG UNIVERSITY

17

Onshore and offshore ‐ logistics

1 8

Offshore

Onshore

BOP

Rail

D E P A R T M E N T O F M E C H A N I C A L A N D M A N U F A C T U R I N G E N G I N E E R I N G- S H I P P I N G & L O G I S T I C S Photo courtesy of J Poulsen Shipping

Installation & commissioning

1 9GLOBAL WIND ENERGY SHIPPING AND LOGISTICSAALBORG UNIVERSITY

Source: AAU research, DHL Global Forwarding,Renewable Energy Solutions

Wind resource map of China

Source: Renewable Energy Solutions, BTM and data fromNational Climate Center of the China MeteorologicalAdministration, June 2010

18.000 km long coastline From shoreline to water depth of 20m = 157.000

km2

Assuming only 10%-20% is suitable for offshore wind and the use of an average 5 MW WTG´s

100-200 GW offshore capacity

Offshore resources in China are spread across: Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Guangdong Shanghai

20

Unique China logistical challenge

Source: China: “Meeting the challenges of offshore and large-scale wind power”, NEA & World Bank, March 2010and Renewable Energy Solutions analysis

Example Jiangsu Dafeng project (installation by Guodian/CCCC JV):• 30 km from shore, Western part of farm will have riverbed exposed during low tide • Eastern part of farm will need WTIV’s to be permanently jacked up out of the water • Requires different kinds of vessels than in Europe


21

Technological development

22

Research and development (R+D)

2 3First WTG serial production 1979

1 MW

2 MW

3-4 MW

5-6 MW

7-8 MW

10 MW

15 MW

20 MW

20+ MW

OnshoreNOW

OffshoreNOW

R+D5-10

OEMs

R+DGE

USA

R+Duniversity+ industry

Wind industry

technology R+D leaps

Transport industry

always caught back-footed –need to get in

front of industry R+D

trends…

PrototypesseveralOEMs

Dimensions – Logistic Challenges

Source: Danish Shipowners’ Association,courtesy Siemens Wind Power

2 4


Wind R+DSampleWeightDimensions

Nacelle weight

(t)

BladeLength

(m)

Siemens 2.3 MW 82 45

Repower 6.15 MW 325 61

Siemens 6 MW 364 75

Samsung 7.5 MW 83

Implications on:- Transport equipment- Assets- HSSEQ

Transport EquipmentTrucks, trains, roads, bridges, storage facilities, lifting equipment, ports, vessels…

Makers of wind turbines (OEMs): ExamplesThe “other” Europeans of the Asian “newcomers”

The pioneers

2 5Source: AAU research, DHL Global Forwarding,

Renewable Energy Solutions

The race for >10 MWTraditional players• Europe

– Siemens– Vestas (8 MW)– Areva– Alstom– Enercon (7.5 MW)– (BARD)– Vensys

• USA– GE (15 MW)– Northern Power Systems– American Superconductors

Asian players• China (10-12 MW)

– Sinovel– Goldwind– United Power– Ming Yang

• South Korea– Samsung– Hyundai– Doosan– Unison– Hyosung

• India– Suzlon (REpower/Senvion)

26Source: BTM part of Navigant (2013), Renewable Energy Magazine,

Renewable Energy Solutions, and Lema/Nordensvärd/Urban/Lütkenhorst (2014)

Winning business models

27

• Offshore wind is not competitive with other energy technologies

• Sites move further from shore and into deeper water

• Offshore wind industry is maturing but growth is dependent on supply chain development (scale, quality, cost)

• Utilities are struggling to secure funding of future projects

• No offshore wind industry HSSEQ standards exist

Key challenges for the offshore wind industry


2 8

The Cost of Energy challenge


2 9Source: Megawatt Baggrund – Det nye offshore(DWIA)

Forward Cost of Energy projections(Danish Energy Administration vs DWIA)

Different ways to estimate LCoE


3 0Source: DONG Energy

Key levers for LCoE


OpEx 25-30%

CapEx 70-75%

Distribution between CapEx and OpEx for an offshore wind power plant(Levelized Cost of Energy)

10%Other

Cables5%

WTGs

45%

Foundations

20%

Installation

20%

Approximate split of CapEx

2

Cost of capital4

1

Yield32 OPEX1 CAPEX

Source: DONG Energy

Business Model in Denmark


3 2

Joint Venture

- Onshore - Offshore

Joint Venture

Vertically and horizontal integrated business model China


3 3

Top South Korean Chaebol….


3 4

Horizontal and vertical integration

M&A is picking up


3 5

• DSV - Acquired Baltship / Seatainers:

• Mammoet - Acquired KR Wind (cranes) and subsequently BrandeMaskintransport (trucking):

• Marubeni - Acquired Sea Jacks:

• Beluga - Company was restructured by private equity Oak Tree (US) into Hansa Heavy Lift, many Beluga vessels taken over by banks and given to Döhle and Oldendorff to manage on behalf of the banks

• Mitsubishi - Joint venture with Vestas

M&A changes the landscape


3 6

• Hochtief – Beluga joint venture with Hochtief dismantled and Belgian firm GeoSea took over Beluga’s shares and formed new company with Hochtief called HGO IntraSea Solutions:

• A2SEA – Acquired by DONG Energy who subsequently sold 49% to Siemens Wind Power

• Swire – Acquired Danish Blue Ocean and formed Swire Blue Ocean

• Aarsleff – Joint venture with German shipping company Bilfinger Berger called AB-JV:

Conclusion

37

Offshore wind ‐ official 12th 5 year plan targets

38

Cumulative MW in 2012

Cumulative target for 2015

Cumulative target for 2020

320 MW

5 GW

30 GW

D E P A R T M E N T O F M E C H A N I C A L A N D M A N U F A C T U R I N GE N G I N E E R I N G- S H I P P I N G & L O G I S T I C S

South Korea wind status‐ as of February, 2013 (onshore and offshore)


3 9Source: Korea Wind Energy Association (2013)

7.5 GW home market offshore wind target by 2030

• Framework agreementsBigger and wider in scopeBundling of tasksMore financial stability required

• More projects within same developer group increase synergies

• Demand for larger, global players• Multi-project contracts in the future?

Roles are changing in the chain


4 0

• Detailed country case studies• China, India• Germany, Denmark

• Shipping/logistics driven themes:• Technological development• LCoE must come down• Winning business models• M&A

Key points of today


4 1

QUESTIONS & ANSWERS


42

BACK‐UP


43

Introduction – Thomas Poulsen

4 4

Aalborg University, Copenhagen CampusDepartment of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering

Contact [email protected] www.en.m-tech.aau.dk

Research interest:Global wind energy shipping and logistics

Background:25 years of global shipping, logistics, and SCM experience having lived in 8 different countries working at practical, strategic, general management, and consulting level

Past employers

Select consulting clients

DelCon


AAU – wind thought leader

WTG

BOP

Energy netSmart gridActive networks

Weather (waves, currents)

R+DIndustry vision

4 5

AAU ‐ shipping and logistics

Logistics

Port construction

Composite materials for

vessels

Offshore oil & gas

Global wind energy

shipping and logistics

Offshore wind

GPS and satellite surveillance of vessels

Carbon fiber vessels

Maritime cleantech

Wave energy

Revenue management


Today’s super star• The offshore

wind turbine• SWP 3.6 MW

power horse

NacelleRotorBlades

Tower

Transition Piece

Foundation/Jacket

Monopile

Source: Siemens Wind Power

47

Industry challenges ‐ macro

4 8D E P A R T M E N T O F M E C H A N I C A L A N D M A N U F A C T U R I N G E N G I N E E R I N G- S H I P P I N G & L O G I S T I C S


Case study: Anholt Offshore wind farm

4 9

Fact box

• Operator: DONG Energy• Ownership: DONG Energy, PKA,

and PensionDanmark in JV• Construction cost: DKK 11.5B• Number of positions: 111 WTG’s• WTG type: 3.6 MW geared

Siemens Wind Power• Foundation type: MP/TP• Total windfarm output: 400 MW• Area covered: 88 km2• Distance from installation /

service port (Grenå): 15 km• Water depth 15.5 – 18 meters


Source: DONG Energy, MTH, AAUresearch (meetings and sitevisits), EAWE conference paper,2013 (Poulsen et.al.)

Progress of offshore wind turbine development 1991‐2012


5 0Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant, November 2012

technological pathways to low carbon - die … · technological pathways to low carbon ... review...

Documents