Technical Projects Update

WRAP Board Meeting

Salt Lake City, UT

November 10, 2004

Presentation Topics

Technical Projects – 2004 Accomplishments Attribution of Haze Dust Emissions Fire Modeling Monitoring & Reporting Stationary Sources – already covered Tribal Data Development

Attribution of Haze Project

Attribution of Haze Workgroup: Phase 1 Draft report – present at SSJF/IWG

meeting 12/14 Review and comment - Final report late 1/05 Uses integrated “weight of evidence” analysis of

3 major data types (monitoring, modeling, emissions inventories)

Determines geographic origins and source type contributions to impairment at all federal and tribal Class I areas

Attribution of Haze Project

Attribution of Haze Workgroup: Outcomes:

Phase 1 report - Identifies key source types and regions for states and tribes to address in 2007 plans

Provide early input to guide policy development Template for Phase II attribution of haze project

to assess visibility changes from 2018 control strategies

Attribution of Haze Project

2002 Annual SO2 Emissions by

Modeling Grid Cell (tons/year)

Attribution of Haze Project

2002 Worst Days’ Monitored Light Extinction

by Sulfate (Mm-1)

Attribution of Haze Project

2002 Worst Days’ Monitored Total Light Extinction (Deciviews)

AoH ProjectExample Draft

Class I area report

Dust Emissions Projects

Dust Emissions Joint Forum: Causes of Dust Haze in the WRAP

Region (DRI) Preliminary categorization – monitoring sites

where dust was the principal cause of haze on a worst visibility day

Transcontinental Events Windblown Dust Events (Local and

Regional) Wildfire Events influencing apparent dust

concentration

Dust Emissions Projects

Dust Emissions Joint Forum: Windblown Dust Emissions Model (Regional

Modeling Center) Phase 2 of project – added several improvements Testing of results to improve performance compared to

monitor data

Analysis of the Fine Fraction of Particulate Matter in Fugitive Dust (RFP released 10/21)

Evaluation and Implementation of a Dust Definition for the WRAP (RFP released 10/28)

Emissions Forum Projects

Emissions Forum: Emissions Data Management System

State/tribal/local 2002 inventories loaded Independent beta testing, additional functions

being added Website on-line 12/04

Alaska projects Emissions inventories for representative Alaska

native villages Aircraft emissions

Emissions Forum Projects

Emissions Forum: Acquired improved Canada [2000] & Mexico

[1999] emissions inventories Mobile source emission inventories update

project scope Supporting access to completed projects by

the Sources In & Near Class I areas Forum Final micro-inventories for emissions in 8 parks Final characterization of emissions near all

western Class I areas (based on1996 data, to be updated with 2002 data)

Fire Emissions Projects

Fire Emissions Joint Forum: 2002 national wildfire emissions (WRAP lead) 2002 wild, ag & prescribed fire inventories

[extensive QA/QC for activity data with states/tribes/FLMs]

** review underway now ** Final 2002 inventories - 12/04 Tested/improved fire emissions estimation tools

Fire Emissions Projects

Fire Emissions Joint Forum: Developed scope of work for planning inventories

2000-04 baseline period 2018 projection year scenarios

Developed approach to quantify Emissions Reductions Techniques adopted by §309 states

Fire Emissions Sensitivity modeling analyses

Modeling Technical Projects

Air Quality Modeling Forum: Multiple simulations by Regional Modeling

Center Implemented improved data and tools

Meteorological model [MM5] Emissions from other RPOs Improved emissions for ammonia, biogenics,

and windblown dust Geographic source apportionment work

for AoH project

Modeling Technical Projects

Air Quality Modeling Forum: Alaska modeling

Developed MM5 modeling protocol Starting sensitivity runs using Alaska emissions data Deliverables in April 2005

Training Provided as part of AoH project Exploring other options to provide more

training and access to results Fire Sensitivity Modeling

Assess modeled impact of changes in fire inventories

Alaska modeling region (red box, approximate)

WRAP Region fine grid (blue)

North American coarse grid (red)

WRAP Modeling Regions

Monitoring & Reporting Projects

Ambient Monitoring & Reporting Forum: VIEWS database/webpage – inter-RPO

project Moved to direct EPA funding on behalf of

RPOs during 2004 RPOs have requested that EPA fund starting

in 2006 Causes of Haze Assessment

Extensive database of monitoring and meteorological data online

Back trajectory regression modeling analyses identify source regions for AoH project

Monitoring & Reporting Projects

Ambient Monitoring & Reporting Forum: Natural Haze Levels Assessment

Inter-RPO project, WRAP lead Analyze which natural emissions species are

sensitive to changes, and by how much Work underway, results available Spring 2005

Review of regional haze light extinction algorithm by IMPROVE Steering Committee

Tribal Data Development Projects

Tribal Data Development Workgroup: Implement and support use of TEISS tool Developing emissions inventories for

stationary sources on tribal lands (coordinated with Stationary Sources and Emissions Forums project)

Causes of Haze Assessment for tribal lands