technical memorandum #2 review of demographics and land use

Garrett County Maryland 2-1 Transit Development Plan

Technical Memorandum #2: Review of Demographics and Land Use

Technical Memorandum #2 Review of Demographics and Land Use

INTRODUCTION The purpose of this technical memorandum is to assess transit need in Garrett County through an analysis of demographic and land use data. Data ranging from major trip generators to underserved and unserved population subgroups are documented and analyzed. It includes a general population profile, identification and evaluation of underserved population subgroups, and a review of the demographic characteristics pertinent to a Title VI analysis. Data sources include the 2010 Census and American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates. This information will help guide the alternatives and recommendations that will be identified through subsequent phases of the TDP process.

POPULATION ANALYSIS This section provides a general population profile for the study area, identifies and evaluates underserved population subgroups, and reviews the demographic characteristics pertinent to a Title VI analysis. Population Table 2-1 shows the U.S. Census population counts for the State of Maryland and Garrett County from 1990 to 2010. Between the 1990 and 2010 Census, Garrett County’s population grew from 28,138 to 30,097 persons (+7.0%). Growth in Garrett County was significantly less than the state’s growth rate. Even though Garrett is growing at a slower rate than the state of Maryland, the towns of Grantsville (+51.7%), Kitzmiller (+16.7%), and Loch Lynn Heights (19.7%) have experienced faster growth than Garrett County. Table 2-1: Historical Populations

Place Population Percent Change

1990 2000 2010 1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2010

Maryland 4,781,468 5,296,486 5,773,552 10.8% 9.0% 20.7% Garrett County 28,138 29,846 30,097 6.1% 0.8% 7.0%

Accident 349 353 325 1.1% -7.9% -6.9% Deer Park 419 405 399 -3.3% -1.5% -4.8% Friendsville 577 539 491 -6.6% -8.9% -14.9% Grantsville 505 619 766 22.6% 23.7% 51.7%



Place Population Percent Change

1990 2000 2010 1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2010

Kitzmiller 275 302 321 9.8% 6.3% 16.7% Loch Lynn Heights 461 469 552 1.7% 17.7% 19.7% Mountain Lake Park 1,938 2,248 2,092 16.0% -6.9% 7.9% Oakland 2,078 1,930 1,925 -7.1% -0.3% -7.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990, 2000, 2010

Recent population estimates show that Garrett County’s population decreased by 2.9% between the 2010 Census and 2017 ACS Estimates. Since the 2010 Census, Garrett County’s population shrunk by 2.9 %, as opposed to the population growth Maryland has experienced. Table 2-2 shows the recent population trend of Garrett County. Since 2010, Grantsville is the only place within Garrett County with a positive growth rate (+14.2%). Table 2-2: Recent Population Trends

Place

Population Percent Change (2010 -2017)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Maryland 57,736 58,431 58,917 59,327 59,702 60,006 60,248 60,522 4.8% Garrett County 30,097 30,137 29,954 29,954 29,635 29,416 29,344 29,233 -2.9%

Accident 325 325 322 323 319 316 316 314 -3.4% Deer Park 399 378 377 377 373 369 369 369 -7.5% Friendsville 491 492 487 487 481 478 476 475 -3.3% Grantsville 766 895 895 895 887 882 879 875 14.2% Kitzmiller 321 320 316 317 311 308 308 305 -5.0% Loch Lynn Heights 552 547 544 542 538 532 531 528 -4.3% Mountain Lake Park 2,092 2,150 2,136 2,133 2,113 2,098 2,091 2,080 -0.6% Oakland 1,925 1,902 1,905 1,906 1,868 1,855 1,848 1,838 -4.5%

Note: Maryland population in thousands Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 and American Community Survey 2017

Population Density Population density is often used as a determinate for the type of public transportation service that is feasible in an area. Typically, an area with a density greater than 2,000 persons per square mile will be able to sustain frequent daily fixed route bus service. Whereas, an area with a population density below 2,000 persons per square mile may be better suited for deviated fixed route, flex schedule, or dial-a-ride service.



Each block group in Garrett County has less than 2,000 people per square mile. Because of this, the map showing population density in the county was organized to make any block group with over one-hundred people per square mile Oakland and its surrounding areas are the most densely populated places in the county. The rest of the county’s block groups have a population density of less than one-hundred persons per block group. Figure 2-1 illustrates the population density of Garrett County. Population Forecast Garrett County’s population is expected to have a growth rate of 4.7% from 2010 to 2045, much slower than Maryland’s projected growth rate of 20.7%. Table 2-3 provides the population projections by Garrett County, Western Maryland, and Maryland.



Figure 2-1 Population Density of the Study Area

Source: U.S. Census and American Community Survey



Figure 2-2 illustrates population growth from historical, recent, and projected population numbers for the study area. If the population projections are correct, the study area will have experienced a nearly 5% population increase by 2045.

Table 2-3: Population Forecast

Place Population Percent

Change 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045 2010-2045

Maryland 5,773,552 5,988,400 6,336,500 6,676,900 6,969,700 20.7%

Western Maryland 252,614 252,250 272,250 290,400 304,750 20.6%

Garrett County 30,097 29,600 30,900 31,400 31,500 4.7% Source: Maryland Department of Planning, July 2014 Figure 2-2: Garrett County Population Growth

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, 2014

TRANSIT DEPENDENT POPULATIONS Identifying the relative size and location of segments within the general population that are more likely to depend on transit service is important when defining public transportation needs. Transit dependent populations include individuals who may not have access to a personal vehicle or may be unable to drive due to reasons such as age or disability.

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

31,000

31,500

32,000

2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Garrett County



Determining the locations of transit dependent populations helps to focus planning efforts for public transportation services. To provide an objective measure when mapping population groups a relative measurement was used based on the study area’s average for each demographic characteristic. To rank the socioeconomic need, block groups are classified relative to the study area as a whole using a five-tiered scale of “Low” to “Very High.” A block group classified as “Low” can still have a significant number of potential transit dependent persons; as “Low” means below the study area’s average. At the other end of the spectrum, “Very High” means greater than twice the study area’s average. The exact specifications for each score are summarized in Table 2-4. Table 2-4: Relative Ranking Definitions for Transit Dependent Populations

Amount of Vulnerable Persons or Households Score Less than and equal to the study area’s average Low Above the average and up to 1.33 times the average Elevated Above 1.33 times the average and up to 1.67 times the average Moderate Above 1.67 times the average and up to two times the average High Above two times the average Very High

Figure 2-3 displays TDI rankings for the study area. According to the TDI, very high transit need areas are found in Oakland and Deer Park. Areas with high transit need are found in Grantsville.



Figure 2-3: Transit Dependence Index




The Transit Dependence Index Percentage (TDIP) provides a complementary analysis to the TDI measure. It is nearly identical to the TDI measure with the exception of the population density factor.

By removing the population density factor, the TDIP measures the degree - rather than the amount - of vulnerability. The TDIP represents the percentage of the population within the block group with above average socioeconomic characteristics, and it follows the TDI’s five-tiered categorization of very low to very high. It differs in that it does not highlight block groups that are likely to have higher amounts of vulnerable populations due to higher population density. Figure 2-4 shows transit need based on percentage. According to the TDIP, Oakland, Mountain Lake Park, and Loch Lynn Heights have high transit need based on the percentage of transit dependent persons in their block groups.



Figure 2-4 Transit Dependence Index by Percent




Autoless Households

Households without access to at least one personal vehicle are more likely to depend on the mobility offered by public transit. Although autoless households are reflected in both the TDI and TDIP measures, displaying this segment of the population separately is still important. Figure 2-5 displays the relative number of autoless households in Garrett County. There are very high percentages of autoless households in Oakland, Mountain Lake Park, and Grantsville.

Senior Adult Population

One of the socioeconomic groups analyzed by the TDI and TDIP indices is the senior adult population, which are individuals ages 65 and older. Persons in this age group may begin to decrease their use of a personal vehicle and rely more on public transit. Block groups that contain very high senior adult populations are in Oakland and Grantsville. Areas with high numbers of senior adults are on the eastern shore of Deep Creek Lake and southern Garrett County. Figure 2-6 illustrates the distribution of senior adults in Garrett County.

Youth Population

Persons ages 10 to 17 either cannot drive or are just beginning to drive and often do not have access to a personal automobile. For this population, public transit allows for increased mobility. Very high concentrations of youth are in Oakland and block groups along Garrett’s western border. High percentages of youth are also in northern Garrett County, including Accident, Jennings, and Grantsville. Figure 2-7 illustrates the concentrations of youth populations relative to the study area.

Individuals with Disabilities Figure 2-8 illustrates individuals with disabilities in Garrett County. Persons who have disabilities that prevent them from or make it more difficult to own and operate a personal vehicle often rely on public transit for their transportation needs. Very high numbers of individuals with disablilities are located in Oakland and Deer Park.



Figure 2-5: Autoless Households



Figure 2-6: Distribution of the Senior Adult Population (ages 65 and Older)



Figure 2-7: Distribution of the Youth Population (ages 10 to 17)



Figure 2-8: Distribution of Individuals with Disabilities



TITLE VI DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, color, or national origin in programs and activities receiving federal subsidies. This includes agencies providing federally funded public transportation. The following section examines the minority and below poverty level populations in the study area. Minority Population In accordance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, it is important to ensure that areas with a higher than average concentration of racial and/or ethnic minorities are not negatively impacted by proposed alterations to existing public transportation services. To determine whether an alteration would have an adverse impact it is necessary to first understand where concentrations of minority individuals reside. Figure 2-9 provides a map of the service area showing the Census block groups shaded according to whether they have minority populations of above or below the service area average of 46%. Above average concentrations of minorities are located in the eastern part of the county, in particular, areas in and around Bloomington, Kitzmiller, and Gorman. GTS serves all of these areas. Below Poverty Populations

This socioeconomic group represents individuals who earn less than the federal poverty level. These individuals face financial hardships that make owning and providing the necessary maintenance of a personal vehicle difficult. For this segment of the population, public transportation may be the more economical choice. Figure 2-9 is a map that shows the census block groups according to whether the poverty rate is above or below the study area average of 7.8%. According to the map, areas with below poverty populations in Garrett County are located in Accident, Deer Park, Friendsville, Grantsville, Jennings, the western shore of Deep Creek Lake, Kitzmiller, Loch Lynn Heights, Mountain Lake Park, and Oakland.



Figure 2-9: Distribution of the Minority Population




Figure 2-10: Distribution of the Below Poverty Population




Limited-English Proficiency

In addition to equitably providing public transportation to individuals of diverse socioeconomic backgrounds, it is also important to recognize the variety of languages spoken in the study area so that public information can be provided to individuals who speak languages other than English. According to the American Community Survey’s five-year estimates for 2013-2017, English is the predominately spoken language in Garrett County. Only 2.2% of Garrett County residents are non-English speakers. Spanish is the most significant individual language, making up less than one percent of the Garrett’s population.

Table 2-5: Limited English Proficiency

Garrett County Population Ages 5 and Older 28,113 Languages Spoken Number Percent English only 27,500 97.82% Non-English 613 2.18%

Spanish 158 0.56% "Very Well" or "Well" 148 0.53% "Not Well" or "Not at All" 10 0.04%

Indo- European languages 364 1.29% "Very Well" or "Well" 351 1.25% "Not Well" or "Not at All" 13 0.05%

Asian/Pacific Island languages 59 0.21% "Very Well" or "Well" 49 0.17% "Not Well" or "Not at All" 10 0.04%

Other languages 32 0.11% "Very Well" or "Well" 32 0.11% "Not Well" or "Not at All" 0 0.00%

Source: American Community Survey, Five-Year Estimates (2013-2017), Table B16004.

LAND USE PROFILE

Major Trip Generators Identifying land uses and major trip generators in the study area complement the above demographic analysis by indicating where transit services may be most needed. Trip generators attract transit demand and include common origins and destinations, like multi-unit housing, major employers, medical facilities, educational facilities, non- profit and governmental agencies, and shopping centers. Figure 2-11 identifies major trip generators in



Garrett County. It should be noted that GTS operates many services to hospitals outside of the county in Baltimore, Cumberland, and Morgantown, WV Figure 2-11: Major Trip Generators



Educational Facilities

Many individuals that comprise the school age population are unable to afford or operate their own personal vehicle; therefore, it may be assumed that this segment of the population is one that is reliant upon public transportation. Additionally, many faculty and staff members are employed at these facilities. Garrett College is the largest educational facility in Garrett County and offers two year programs as well as credit and non credit classes to county residents. Frostburg State University is the largest 4-year university in Western Maryland, but is located in Allegany County. Table 2-6: Educational Facilities in Garrett County

Name Address Place Zip Code Garrett College 687 Mosser Road McHenry 21541 Garrett Community College 14 N. 8th Street Oakland 21550 Hickory Environment Education Center 604 Pride Parkway Accident 21520 Hickory Environmental Education Center 604 Pride Parkway Accident 21520 Northern Garrett High School 86 Pride Parkway Accident 21520 Northern Middle School 371 Pride Parkway Accident 21520 Southern Garrett High School 345 Oakland Drive Oakland 21550 Southern Middle School 605 Harvey Winters Road Oakland 21550 Swan Meadow School 6709 Garrett Highway Oakland 21550

Human Services

Public transit is often vital in ensuring transit dependent populations have access to human service agencies and organizations. Human service agencies provide assistance and resources to residents seeking support in a spectrum of issues including, but not limited to, senior health care, childhood development, recreation, and nutrition. There are senior living facilities located in Oakland and Grantsville, as well as regional libraries that serve the county. Community action organizations are mostly located within Oakland. Figure 2-7: Human Services in Garrett County

Name Address Place Zip Code

Accident Library 106 S. North Street Accident 21520 American Red Cross 14 N 8th Street Oakland 21550 Appalachian Crossroads 39 S 3rd Street Oakland 21550 Flowery Vale Health & Fitness Center for Older Adults 204 South Street Accident 21520 Friendsville Library 315 Chestnut Street Friendsville 21531 Garrett Cooperative Ministry 2 W First Avenue Loch Lynn 21550 Garrett County Community Action Committee 104 E. Center Street Oakland 21550 Garrett County Habitat for Humanity, Inc. 360 West Liberty Street Oakland 21550




Garrett Lakes Art Festival 687 Mosser Road McHenry 21550 Garrett Mentors 105 Second Street Oakland 21550 Grantsville Library 102 Parkside Drive Grantsville 21536 Grantsville Senior Center 125 Durst Court Grantsville 21536 Kitzmiller Library 288 W Main Street Kitzmiller 21538 Mary Browning Senior Center 104 E Center Street Oakland 21550 Mountain Glade Adult Day Services 375 Pythian Avenue Oakland 21550 Oakland Library 6 North Second Street Oakland 21550 The Dove Center 12978 Garrett Highway Oakland 21550

Major Employers

The major employers displayed in Figure 2-8 have at least 60 employees and have been identified by the Maryland Chamber of Commerce as major employers in the county. Some of the major employers in Garrett County include; Garrett County Memorial Hospital, Beitzel, Walmart, and WISP Resort. Because of the tourism industry that exists in Garrett County, some major employers higher their staff during the peak tourism months. Figure 2-8: Major Employers in Garrett County


Appalachian Parent Association 29 South Third Street Oakland 21550 Beitzel Corporation 12072 Bittinger Road Grantsville 21536 Dennet Road Manor 1113 Mary Drive Oakland 21550 Garrett County Community Action Committee 104 East Center Street Oakland 21550 Garrett County Container Systems 123 North Industrial Avenue Accident 21520 Oakland Nursing and Rehabilitation 706 East Alder Street Oakland 21550 Phenix Technologies 75 Speicher Drive Accident 21520 Railey Mountain Lake Vacations LLC 5 Vacation Way McHenry 21541 Recreational Ind Inc 296 Marsh Hill Road McHenry 21541 Savage Industries 354 Table Rock Road Oakland 21550 Vindex Energy Corporation 265 Glass Drive Oakland 21550 Wal-Mart/Sam's Club 13164 Garrett Highway Oakland 21550 ClosetMaid 1 Closetmaid Drive Grantsville 211536

Major Shopping Destinations

Shopping centers are trip destinations in which residents may purchase essential items such as groceries or general merchandise. These centers are an attractive trip end for many residents since they also serve some as a place of employment. For the purposes of this study, shopping destinations are defined as a concentration of stores such as a mall or retail outlet,



large retail establishments, and major supermarkets. It is important that the selected shopping destinations do not simply represent recreational shopping locations, but general merchandise and food outlets, as transit dependent persons are more likely to rely on transit services for essential needs. Figure 2-9: Shopping Destinations in Garrett County

Name Address Place Zip Code Type

Browning's Foodland Route 135 East Oakland 21550 Grocery Deep Creek Foodland Fresh 24586 Garrett Highway McHenry 21541 Grocery Farmers Market 12679 Garrett Highway Oakland 21550 Grocery Grantsville Shopping Center Grant Street Grantsville 21536 Shopping Grantsville Shopping Plaza 3241 Chestnut Ridge Road Grantsville 21536 Shopping Stop & Save Foods 4137 Maryland Highway Oakland 21550 Grocery Walmart Supercenter 13164 Garrett Highway Oakland 21550 Grocery Wal-Mart Supercenter 13164 Garrett Highway Oakland 21550 Grocery

Medical Facilities

Medical facilities represent a significant destination for users of public transportation. Older adults and persons with disabilities often rely more heavily upon services offered by medical facilities than other population segments. Medical Facilities in the study area include; The Garrett County Memorial Hospital, Oakland Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, and Dennett Road Manor. It should be noted that important medical destinations are also located in Baltimore, Cumberland, and Morgantown, WV. Figure 2-10: Medical Facilities in Garrett County


Beachy Pharmacy 149 Main Street Grantsville 21536 Pharmacy CVS 220 North Third Street Oakland 21550 Pharmacy Friendsville Pharmacy 248 Maple Street Friendsville 21531 Pharmacy Garrett County Memorial Hospital 251 North Fourth Street Oakland 21550 Medical Facility Gregg's Pharmacy 20 North Third Street Oakland 21550 Pharmacy Rite Aid 3237 Chestnut Ridge Road Grantsville 21536 Pharmacy Walgreens Store 209 North Third Street Oakland 21550 Pharmacy



Multi-Unit/High-Density Housing

Multifamily residents tend to drive fewer miles and use public transportation more frequently than residents of single family housing. As expected, the majority of the high density or multi-unit housing is located in Oakland and Mountain Lake Park. Many of the high density housing facilities in Garrett County are assisted living. Figure 2-11: High Density Housing in Garrett County


Assisted Living at Goodwill 891 Dorsey Hotel Road Grantsville 21536 Assisted Living Cassel Ridge East 600 Cassel Ridge Drive Grantsville 21536 Multi-family Cherry Hill Assisted Living 253 Aiken Miller Road Accident 21520 Assisted Living Eleventh Street Mitchell Manor 214 N. 11th Street Oakland 21550 Assisted Living Gateway Townhomes Gateway Terrace Cumberland 21502 Multi-family Glades West 200 Glades Square Oakland 21550 Multi-family Guardian Apartments 949 Old River Road Friendsville 21531 Affordable Housing Jones Acres 1349 Jones Station Road Arnold 21012 Assisted Living Liberty Mews Liberty Street Oakland 21550 Multi-family Liberty Square 10 Liberty Square Drive Oakland 21550 Affordable Housing Meadow Woods East 607 P Street Mountain Lake Park 21550 Assisted Living Meadows East 607 N Street Mountain Lake Park 21550 Assisted Living Mountain Village West 175 Pysell Road McHenry 21541 Multi-family Oakwood East 110 A Street Mountain Lake Park 21550 Assisted Living Overlook North 300 Vista Square Oakland 21550 Multi-family Parkwood Village East 108 Decatur Street Mountain Lake Park 21550 Multi-family Pine Woods East 705 N Street Mountain Lake Park 21550 Multi-family Pleasant View South 402 Pleasant View Lane Mountain Lake Park 21550 Multi-family Pysell Ridge 255 Pysell Road McHenry 21541 Multi-family Starner Hill Apartments 25 Pennsylvania Avenue Grantsville 21536 Assisted Living Underwood South 201 E. Mason Street Oakland 21550 Affordable Housing Village View 295 Pysell Road McHenry 21541 Multi-family Yough West 400 Glades Square Oakland 21550 Affordable Housing

Employment Travel Patterns

In addition to considering locations of major employers, it is also important to account for commuting patterns of residents working inside and outside of the study area. According to ACS five-year estimates, the majority of residents in the study area work in Maryland (86%) and Charles County (75%). The majority of Garrett County residents drive alone to work (80%), while 1% use public transportation as their primary means of travel to work. Table 2-6 provides journey to work data for Garrett County.



Table 2-6: Journey to Work Patterns for Charles County

Garrett County Workers (Ages 16 +) 13,738 Employment Location Number Percent In State of Residence 11,792 86% In County 10,241 75% Outside of County 1,551 11% Outside State of Residence 1,946 14% Means of Transportation to Work Number Percent Car, Truck, or Van - drove alone 10,928 80% Car, Truck, or Van - carpooled 1,361 10% Public Transportation 82 1% Walked 504 4% Taxicab, motorcycle, bicycle, other 83 1% Worked at Home 780 6%

Source: ACS, Five-Year Estimates (2013-2017), Table B08130

Another source of data that provides an understanding of employee travel patterns is the Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) dataset. Table 2-7 lists the top ten employment destinations for Charles County residents. According to the data, the number one employment destination is Mountain Lake Park, MD. Top out of county destinations included Frostburg, Cumberland, and Terra Alta, WV. Table 2-7: Top Ten Employment Destinations for County Residents

Place Census-Designated Place? Number Percent

Mountain Lake Park, MD No 572 5.4% Oakland, MD No 483 4.6% Grantsville, MD No 169 1.6% Loch Lynn Heights, MD No 145 1.4% Frostburg, MD No 141 1.3% Cumberland, MD No 138 1.3% Friendsville, MD No 127 1.2% Terra Alta, WV No 97 0.9% Accident, MD No 89 0.8% Deer Park, MD No 82 0.8% All Other Locations 8,553 80.7% Source: Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics, 2015.



SUMMARY OF DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS When combining demographic, land-use, and commuter trends analyzed in this section the following needs and themes emerge:

• Garrett County’s 2010 Census population was 30,097. Since then, Garrett County has experienced a small decrease in population. Population projections show that population is increasing, but at a much slower rate than the state of Maryland.

• Grantsville is the only population in Garrett County that has increased since the 2010

Census.

• According to the TDI, Grantsville, Loch Lynn Heights, Mountain Lake Park, and Oakland have high or very high transit need. However, the overall lack of population density in the county mitigates some of these numbers.

technical memorandum #2 review of demographics and land use

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